Our fortnightly “frisk” of the Premier League fixture list from a Fantasy Premier League point of view returns ahead of Gameweek 7.
In this feature, we assess the top-flight clubs with the strongest and weakest league matches over the coming weeks, and offer our thoughts on the stand-out Fantasy assets from each of the sides discussed.
Although our primary focus will be on a six-Gameweek lookahead, we will scrutinise the long-term fixtures beyond that point where relevant.
Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur are “new entries” in our strong section, while Southampton and Crystal Palace are about to embark on an unenviable sequence of matches.
The Strong
Leicester City
Next six: new, EVE, ars, WHU, car, BUR
And then: bha, WAT, ful
Possible turning point: TOT (Gameweek 16)
James Maddison (£6.8m) has been bought by more FPL managers than any other player ahead of Gameweek 7, following back-to-back goals in the Foxes’ last two top-flight matches.
There is another reason for his ever-growing popularity, though: Leicester’s fixtures. Claude Puel’s side sit top of our Season Ticker up until Gameweek 15, a run of games that sees the 2015/16 title winners only face Arsenal of the “big six” between now and early December.
While the Gunners are an in-form side offensively, their leaky defence should give Leicester plenty of encouragement for their trip to the Emirates just after the international break. Only four sides have conceded more shots on target than Unai Emery’s troops this season.
In Everton, West Ham United, Cardiff City and Burnley, the Foxes will be facing opposition who have already conceded at least ten Premier League goals in the opening half-dozen Gameweeks.
Cardiff, Burnley and West Ham also join Arsenal in the bottom five of teams who have conceded the most attempts on target this season, while only Fulham have allowed more big chances than the Hammers.
Leicester’s midfield and attack seems to be the avenue to venture down, given the Foxes’ own struggles at the back. Puel’s side have recorded only one clean sheet so far this season, and are conceding at a rate of 1.67 goals per game.
However, their underlying defensive statistics are far from terrible. Only five sides have allowed fewer shots on target and efforts in the box, while their total number of shots conceded (60) is better than all bar four top-flight sides.
According to Opta’s expected goals conceded (xGC) data, Leicester have conceded almost three goals more than anticipated based on the quality of the opposition’s chances.
Ben Chilwell (£5.0m) might be worthy of consideration then, for this run of favourable fixtures. He is able to couple attacking threat with the clean sheet potential that those defensive numbers suggest is currently being unfulfilled.
Harry Maguire (£5.5m) appears expensive even factoring in his aerial threat from set pieces, while Ricardo Pereira (£5.1m) lost his place at right-back in the win over Huddersfield Town last weekend after some iffy defensive displays, and is too much of a rotation risk at present to justify that price tag.
Maddison and Jamie Vardy (£8.9m), of course, are the stand-out candidates. Maddison’s prominence at set plays is tailor-made for an encounter with Newcastle United this weekend, who have conceded more attempts from dead-ball situations than any other Premier League side in 2018/19. Cardiff and West Ham, indeed, rank just behind the Magpies in that statistic.
Vardy’s case we highlighted in our weekly Digest feature, with the fact that his KPIs are improving across the board this season a possibly good omen for these matches ahead.
Tottenham Hotspur
Next six: hud, CAR, whu, MCI, wol, cry
Possible turning point: CHE (Gameweek 13)
With so much focus on other teams’ unfavourable fixtures over the past few weeks (notably Liverpool’s), Spurs’ upcoming decent run of matches has quietly crept up on us.
Four of their next half-dozen matches are admittedly away from home, with one of their home fixtures being a tough-looking encounter with Manchester City.
Trips to Wolves and Crystal Palace are far from straightforward either.
Only Liverpool have allowed fewer big chances than Nuno Espirito Santo’s side, who have kept four clean sheets in their last five competitive matches.
Palace meanwhile have kept three straight shut-outs in league and cup and have only conceded one big chance since James Tomkins (£4.4m) returned to their defence in Gameweek 5.
Spurs, then, feature in this article (and high on our Season Ticker) as much for their next three matches as anything beyond that.
A double-header against Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City is certainly tempting given that many of their Champions League-chasing rivals face each other in the coming fortnight.
These two sides – the leakiest in the division – are both conceding at a rate of 2.33 goals per fixture. The Bluebirds have shipped nine in their last two matches, with Neil Warnock insistent that his troops aren’t capable of “parking the bus” in matches against the top six sides.
Only Fulham (73) have allowed more shots in their box than Huddersfield (63) and Cardiff (67), meanwhile, while West Ham – Spurs’ opponents in Gameweek 9 – have conceded more big chances than all other clubs bar the Cottagers.
Spurs’ clean sheet prospects look positive for the next three, with Huddersfield and Cardiff ranked joint-bottom for big chances created and the Hammers only marginally above them in 17th.
Rotation in the full-back areas is always an issue with Mauricio Pochettino, though the injury that Serge Aurier (£5.8m) picked up in the Carabao Cup match against Watford could mean less competition for Kieran Trippier (£6.1m) at right-back. Kyle Walker-Peters (£4.3m), of course, is a possible understudy for one of these two upcoming league matches that sit either side of a UEFA Champions League meeting with Barcelona next Wednesday.
Jan Vertonghen (£6.0m) has started every league match at centre-back so far this season, so is a potentially risk-free route into the Spurs back four.
Further forward, the return to fitness and availability of Erik Lamela (£6.4m) and Son Heung-min (£8.3m) puts the starts of Lucas Moura (£7.4m) and even Dele Alli (£9.0m) in some jeopardy, so Harry Kane (£12.4m) – in the absence of the injured Christian Eriksen (£9.3m) – is the safest route into the Spurs attack.
We highlighted Kane’s eye-catching underlying attacking statistics that he posted in the win over Brighton, though doubts still remain from the “eye test” of just how fit and firing the England striker is.
Eriksen – who is expected to return to fitness for the visit of Barcelona in midweek – has yet to score in the league this season, but only two FPL midfielders have registered more shots on goal than the Danish international in the opening half-dozen Gameweeks. Trippier’s increased prominence at set-piece situations is to the detriment of the Spurs playmaker, but Eriksen is nevertheless still averaging over two key passes per game.
Newcastle United
Next six: LEI, mun, BHA, sou, WAT, BOU
And then: bur, WHU, eve, WOL, hud, FUL
Possible turning point: liv (Gameweek 19)
There is no question who tops the table for most attractive fixtures between now and Christmas.
Newcastle United have just a Gameweek 8 meeting with Manchester United to get past before a sea of blue opens up on our Season Ticker, with a Boxing Day encounter against Liverpool the next time the Magpies have to face one of the “big six”.
Fantasy managers have understandably given Rafael Benitez’s side a wide berth in the opening half-dozen Gameweeks, and the fact that budget forward Joselu (£5.0m) – selected by 5.2% of FPL bosses – is their most-owned asset says much about the early-season faith in the Magpies.
The Fantasy community might even want to hold fire until after Gameweek 8, too, with free-scoring Leicester (see above) and Manchester United still to come before the international break.
After that, though, there is much to like about the Toon’s sequence of fixtures.
We highlighted Newcastle’s solid defensive performances in our Digest article on Wednesday, isolating their matches against Cardiff and Crystal Palace with one eye on this run of games in which they avoid the “big six”. United, indeed, kept clean sheets in both of those fixtures at the Cardiff City Stadium and Selhurst Park.
Despite facing Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City, only four sides have conceded fewer big chances than the Magpies from Gameweek 3 onwards.
That only Burnley had allowed more shots on goal overall during this period highlights the fact that United’s stubborn defensive displays had largely restricted their formidable opposition to half-chances and efforts off target, rather than clear-cut opportunities.
The Gameweek 9 encounter with Brighton looks particularly enticing, given that the Seagulls have registered fewer shots on target away from home than the 19 other Premier League clubs.
No side has registered fewer shots on goal this season than the Magpies, so interest in their attacking assets remains cool. In mitigation, Benitez’s side have had the worst run of fixtures of any team in the division so far, but uncertainty over their first-choice starting XI – defensive shield Mohamed Diame (£5.0m) is the only midfielder or attacker to have started all six of their league fixtures this season – means our focus is very much on the Magpies’ defence at this juncture.
Arsenal
Next six: WAT, ful, LEI, cry, LIV, WOL
Possible turning point: LIV (Gameweek 11)
Gameweek 11 (perhaps even the trip to Selhurst Park a week earlier) marks the end of Arsenal’s great run of fixtures, with the Gunners then set to face Liverpool, Wolves, Spurs and Manchester United in the five Gameweeks from early November onwards.
Until then, though, the north London side remain well-positioned on our Season Ticker.
Unai Emery’s side have scored at least two goals in each of their last five league fixtures and the focus for Fantasy managers is very much on their attacking assets, with their backline still failing to convince.
Even when recording a first clean sheet of the season in the win over Everton last weekend, the Gunners were indebted to an excellent performance from Petr Cech (£5.0m) to keep the Toffees at bay and only four clubs have conceded more shots on target than the Gunners this season.
Five of their next six opponents sit in the top ten for most efforts recorded on target, too.
Only two clubs have registered more shots on target the Gunners themselves this season and Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) is proving a popular buy this week after recording an attacking return for the fourth match running in Gameweek 6: the Frenchman is the third-most-bought FPL forward of this round.
Aaron Ramsey‘s (£7.4m) stock is also rising, after starting four league matches on the spin and recording two assists in that win over Everton last Sunday.
Arsenal’s Gameweek 8 opponents, Fulham, have conceded more shots on target and big chances than any other Premier League side this season, while only four clubs have allowed more efforts on target away from home than Leicester City.
Watford have posted some impressive underlying defensive numbers this season, but their backline – which had remained unchanged for six straight league fixtures – may be missing Christian Kabasele (£4.5m) and Daryl Janmaat (£5.0m) through suspension and injury this weekend. Watford are set to appeal Kabasele’s red card in the League Cup defeat to Spurs, though.
Also Consider…
Two sides who have daunting away fixtures this weekend will shoot up the Season Ticker from Gameweek 8 onwards and will no doubt feature more prominently in our next Frisking the Fixtures article.
While few will consider Brighton and Hove Albion assets for the trip to the Etihad, the Seagulls then face a run of fixtures (WHU, new, WOL, eve, car, LEI, hud, CRY, bur) that rivals Newcastle’s in the medium-to-long term.
West Ham, Newcastle, Cardiff, Huddersfield and Burnley all feature in the top ten sides who have conceded the most shots on target this season, good news for those considering Glenn Murray (£6.5m) as a mid-price forward. The veteran striker has the highest goal conversion rate (44.4%) of any FPL forward this season.
Brighton also face all five sides who are currently scoring at a rate of less than one goal per match during this spell too, so the likes of Matthew Ryan, Shane Duffy (both £4.5m) and Lewis Dunk (£4.4m) could come into our thinking – though the Seagulls have yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Duffy has been involved in four of Brighton’s goals this season, meanwhile.
Watford‘s trip to the Emirates this weekend precedes five fixtures (BOU, wol, HUD, new, sou) in which they avoid any of the “big six”.
Despite only keeping one clean sheet, the Hornets’ defence has been quietly impressive this season: just three sides have allowed fewer shots on target.
Meetings with Newcastle and Huddersfield, who have recorded the fewest number of shots on goal in the Premier League this season, look particularly appealing for Ben Foster (£4.5m), Jose Holebas (£4.9m) et al.
Despite a 4-0 drubbing at Burnley last weekend, Bournemouth assets remain in high demand for their fixtures (CRY, wat, SOU, ful) up until Gameweek 10.
Palace, Southampton and Fulham all feature in the top ten sides who have conceded the most shots on target this season (the Cottagers head this list), which should provide hope for the owners of Ryan Fraser (£5.9m), Callum Wilson and Josh King (both £6.3m).
Only Manchester City have been presented with more big chances than the Cherries this season, while at the other end, just three sides have conceded fewer clear-cut opportunities.
The Weak
Crystal Palace
Next six: bou, WOL, eve, ARS, che, TOT
And then: mun
Possible turning point: BUR (Gameweek 14)
Palace’s four fixtures from Gameweek 10 onwards look particularly awful, but their three matches before the visit of Arsenal are far from straightforward either.
Bournemouth and Wolves have conceded fewer big chances combined this season than Palace have on their own, so the circa one in four FPL managers who own Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) may be considering alternative mid-price forward options even before that sequence of four matches against the “big six”.
The Cherries and Wolves also sit in the top five for big chances created, so the defensive stability that has seen Palace record back-to-back clean sheets in the league is likely to also be tested in advance of the match against Arsenal in late-October.
Many will deem Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£4.3m) a benchable season-keeper (barring injury), but those FPL managers sitting on the likes of Tomkins, Patrick van Aanholt (£5.5m) and Mamadou Sakho (£5.0m) will be sorely tempted to move their Palace assets on given the fixtures ahead.
Southampton
Next six: wol, CHE, bou, NEW, mci, WAT
Tricky matches against Wolves and Bournemouth (both away) are also on Southampton’s agenda, with the Saints then facing seven meetings with “big six” clubs in their subsequent 14 Gameweeks.
While only five sides have recorded more shots on goal than Southampton in 2018/19, it should be noted that Mark Hughes had avoided any of last season’s top six in their opening five Gameweeks.
The Saints had to wait until stoppage time of the defeat to Liverpool for a shot on target, and those who are welcoming back Danny Ings (£5.7m) to their sides after he sat out the game at Anfield will perhaps be benching the budget forward more often than not over the coming months – if retaining his services at all.
There are few alternatives in the sub-£6.0m bracket, however, so Ings might be held onto by his 6.8% of owners and used sparingly during this difficult run.
The Saints’ next six opponents, to emphasise the magnitude of their task, all sit in the top half of the table for fewest shots on target conceded.
Also Consider…
Manchester City (BHA, liv, BUR, tot, SOU, MUN) actually sit second-bottom of our Season Ticker over the next six Gameweeks, but with home matches against Brighton, Burnley and Southampton interspersed between fixtures against Liverpool, Spurs and Manchester United, their run of games is a mixed bag at worst.
City’s form of last season and their dominant display in Gameweek 1 against Arsenal will have persuaded many FPL bosses that the likes of Sergio Aguero (£11.4m) and David Silva (£8.6m) are fixture-proof anyway, though of course, the threat of rotation hangs over the head of many of their players.
City’s next three opponents at the Etihad are conceding on average over five shots on target per match on their travels (seven, in Burnley’s case), which each ceding over two big opportunities per away fixture.
A trip to Liverpool, who have conceded fewer big chances than any side this season, will be City’s biggest test so far, but Pep Guardiola’s side are averaging more than three goals per game in 2018/19 and will in turn give Jurgen Klopp’s backline its sternest examination to date.
For City, read Liverpool (che, MCI, hud, CAR, ars, FUL). The Reds have got three meetings with fellow “big six” clubs in the next half-dozen Gameweeks, but also enjoy some juicy fixtures around that.
Huddersfield, Cardiff and Fulham, indeed, have conceded more goals and shots in the box this season than the other 17 top-flight clubs.
The next two matches are, of course, the real acid test of Klopp’s unbeaten side and feature opposition who have conceded fewer shots on target than the rest of the division – perfectly understandable reasons why Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) and Sadio Mane (£10.0m) are currently losing owners ahead of Gameweek 7.
The end of this tricky spell is in sight, though: our next Frisking the Fixtures article, which will be written over the international break ahead of Gameweek 9, is set to feature Liverpool in the “strong” section as their fixtures take a turn for the better.
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