Learning from The Great and The Good: Gameweek 7

“Guess who’s back, back again. Harry’s back. Tell a friend”

So before we embark on the rollercoaster ride of game week 8 let’s look back for one last time at gameweek 7 and the fortunes of The Great and The Good. There was more than one Harry making the headlines with both Mr Kane (13pts) and Mr Maguire (18pt) having big weeks and forcing their way into our thinking.  Raheem Sterling, the seemingly forgotten man this season, also provided another reminder of his qualities and we continue to ponder the futures of Salah and Mendy.

So who are The Great and The Good? I hear no one cry.. they are Jay Egersdorff, Ville Ronka, The Scoutcasters (Joe, Andy, Az, David, Granville, and Mark), Eliteserien’s expert Niemi, and the last man standing Torres Magic. These are FPL managers I have handpicked to follow and improve my own performance (12k if anyone is interested – humble brag).

Overall Performance 

Andy “Lets talk FPL” now heads up The Great and The Good thanks to a stand out performance this week with 84 points. His decision to bring Kane in plus his early decision last week to ditch Mendy for Trippier really paid dividends.​ He had contributions from across the pitch with Hazard, Doherty, Maddison all providing points.​ The results from his wildcard a couple of weeks ago have been incredible and he has now gone from the 475k mark to now being the​ only one of these managers in the top 20k. Just behind him sit Ville Ronka and Torres Magic who have taken a more steady approach, both benefitting from the continued good form of Hazard. Torres Magic was also one of a number of the managers who benefitted from a Wolves double up this week with Patricio, Doherty, Jonny, Bennett, and Jimenez all contributing in various ways to the performance of The Great and The GOod, with Niemi and David even tripling up on these great value assets.

There were average weeks for Granville and Az who both suffered red arrows. In fact Granville was saved by this week’s lucky (or tactical) substitution award, with Doherty coming off the ​bench for Mendy. Az has played his wildcard such was his disappointment this week so let’s see​ if this can be as successful as Andy’s. In other news, Jay finally managed a green arrow after​ 5 weeks and David finds himself in the top 100k for the first time this season thanks to that​ triple wolves move and Hazard. Mark also continues his great recovery and has achieved 5 green arrows​ in a row.

Andy GW 84 pts Total 480 pts (rank 19146)

Ville Ronka GW 64 pts Total 477 pts (rank 22923 )

TorresMagic GW 65 pts Total 477 pts (rank 23111)

Niemi GW 63 pts Total 469 pts (rank 39726)

Joe GW 66 pts Total 469 pts (rank 38007)

Granville GW 51 pts Total 463 pts (rank 53506)

David GW 64 pts Total 451 pts (rank 98747)

Mark GW 65 pts Total 449 pts (rank 110440)

Az GW 56 pts Total 445 pts (rank 135186)

Jay Egersdorff GW 57 pts Total 394 pts (rank 866893)

Transfers and Hits

After GW6 saw three managers play their wildcards, this week was relatively quiet by comparison. The headline news aside from Az’s maverick transfer of Pickford to Patricio (yawn) was Andy’s bold move to bring in Harry Kane. After much deliberation and provocation by others he made the great decision to swap out Salah and Wilson to bring in the Spurs striker and the in-form Richarlison. It proved to be a smart transfer with two goals against a very poor Huddersfield and now many are looking to bring him onboard with Cardiff next in the firing line. Andy is now the second of the great and good managers to be Salah-less after Jay took the initiative last week. Niemi continued his habit of taking hits and brought in a couple of Wolves who are clearly growing in popularity amongst these managers as a source of good value. He has currently taken the most number of hits (3) from these group of managers whilst Granville and (no prizes for guessing) Ville Ronka are yet to take one. Mark also took a hit and continues the rebuild of his team bringing in Doherty and Richarlison. The Brazilian transfer was a common one perhaps with one eye on the frailties of the Fulham defence but he failed to deliver with Siggy stealing the spotlight. Last weeks wildcarders kept their powder dry and I reckon a few of them will have an eye on readjusting their front line this week or even trying to work out how to fit in Sterling who has been under the radar so far.

This is a summary of the transfers for this week :

Andy – Richarlison, Kane (Salah, Wilson)

Az – Patricio (Pickford)

David – No transfer

Granville – Richarlison (Lingard)

Jay – Richarlison (Walcott)

Joe – No transfer

Mark – Doherty, Richarlison (Mendy, Walcott)

Niemi – Doherty, Jiménez (Robertson, Kamara)

Torres Magic – No transfer

Ville Ronka – Trippier (Mendy)

*transfers out are in brackets

Template

After the wildcard and those transfers the template now looks like this:

Hennessey, Patricio

Wan-Bissaka, Robertson, Doherty, Alonso, Mendy/Bennett/Trippier

Salah, Fraser, Hazard, Maddison, Richarlison

Aguero, Mitrovic, Wilson/Jiménez

The template would now suggest tripling up on Wolves players is not a bad idea. Patricio, Doherty, Bennett and Jiménez are all in the squad. While they continue to deliver points then I am sure their stay will be an extended one, although they won’t play Southampton every week. The ongoing speculation about Mendy’s injury or disciplinary issues (or social media activity) sees him drop out of more team. The decision is now seems to be either to go like for like with Trippier or take one of the cheaper Molineux options. Richarlison roars back into the template with four of the managers transferring him in this week and I am sure he will deliver better returns in the coming weeks. Up front we stick with Aguero plus two cheaper options but I fancy that to change, with some of the premium or even mid price options beginning to fire (Kane, Arnie, Vardy, or Lacazette anyone?). There will need to be some restructuring so will be interesting to see how The Great and The Good respond.

Team Investment and Value

Average Cost of Player looks like this across the teams based on week 1 prices.

Goalkeeper –  4.4

Defender – 5.1

Midfielder – 8.2

Forward – 7.9

ITB – 0.6

We see a minor shift this week in team investment towards the forward line with Andy’s big money move of Kane having an impact. In fact he stands alone in his budget up front with an average of 9.7 per forward well above the norm. The decision to look at cheaper Mendy replacements also sees a slight fall in defence. There is also on average more in the bank this week with Mark in particular feeling flush having 2.1 ready to be spent.

In terms of the overall team value we see three of them hitting 103m and over. Granville leads the way on 103.2 with Niemi and Ronka at 103. Let’s see as the season develops how important this early budget building is in deciding the final rankings.

Formation and Bench 

Formation-wise 343 continues to dominate and has been deployed 52% of the time by The Great and The Good. However, interesting to note that neither Ville Ronka or Az have deployed it once this season. Ville has shown the most flexibility here, he went 451 this week and has already played four different types of formations over the first seven weeks.

New for this week I also had a look at how important bench strength is by looking at the number of times they have had to use substitutes and how effective this has been. The Great and The Good have been forced to used their bench 3 times on average over the first 7 weeks, with Jay/Torres Magic looking to the sidelines the most (5 times each). Joe has only​ had to bring in a reserve once which perhaps suggest he is sticking to the mantra of always fielding​ guaranteed starters. Granville has been the most successful in the points gained from the bench​ and on average has gained 7.5 points from the player coming on. I believe the bench will become even more crucial as we enter​ the European rotation stage, so he’ll be hoping his luck/bench skill continues for him.​

Captain and Differentials 

There was very little controversy in the captaincy choice with Aguero again the main man for all of the managers. It has been a straight shoot out between him and Salah all season with the Man City man gaining ground in the last couple of weeks. They now sit at 51% (Salah) and 47% (Aguero) for the arm band across the season for these managers. Hazard is the only one apart from these two to make a cameo appearance as a captaincy choice (and a very successful one for Mark).

Will we see Kane join him this week? Talking of Harry, he is one of the key differentials for now just appearing in Andy’s team. Ville Ronka is the only one patient enough to keep Walcott and was rewarded this week with six points. The other one of note is Jonny who gave a shining display for Az. Let’s see if he stays in his team after his decision to finally press the wildcard button.

So as we head into GW8, will we see more big hitters come into these teams? Will there be a move towards Spurs and Leicester players? Will more go Salah-less? Will we ever get a straight answer on the mysterious disappearance of Mendy?

However, that’s all from me for now and remember don’t have nightmares.