Our fortnightly “frisk” of the Premier League fixture list from a Fantasy Premier League point of view returns ahead of Gameweek 11.
In this feature, we assess the top-flight clubs with the strongest and weakest league matches over the coming weeks, and offer our thoughts on the stand-out Fantasy assets from each of the sides discussed.
Although our primary focus will be on a six-Gameweek lookahead, we will scrutinise the long-term fixtures beyond that point where relevant.
Those teams with the best fixtures are perhaps the least fashionable clubs from a Fantasy perspective, with the likes of Huddersfield Town, Cardiff City and Newcastle United enjoying decent runs.
Two of the in-form sides of recent times, Bournemouth and Arsenal, are set for a rough ride in the coming weeks and months, however.
The Strong
West Ham United
Next six: BUR, hud, MCI, new, CAR, CRY
And then: ful, WAT, sou, bur, BHA
Possible turning point: ARS (Gameweek 22)
With the visit of Manchester City the only real daunting task ahead of West Ham United for the rest of the calendar year, the Hammers have shot up our Season Ticker after their match against Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 10.
Four of their next six fixtures are at the London Stadium and the fact that the Hammers have conceded only two goals in three home matches against Chelsea, Manchester United and Spurs this season will perhaps reassure them ahead of the visit of Pep Guardiola’s side in Gameweek 13.
West Ham’s improving defence – they haven’t conceded more than one goal in a Premier League match since Gameweek 3 – was the focus of our Digest article this week and we won’t recover old ground by talking up their backline here.
Suffice to say, though, five of West Ham’s next six opponents (City being the obvious exception) are scoring at a rate of one goal per game or less.
Eight of the ten sides that the Hammers face between now and Gameweek 22 rank in the bottom half of the table for shots on target, with Huddersfield, Newcastle, Burnley and Cardiff – along with the Hammers themselves – in the bottom five for big chances created.
Fabian Balbuena (£4.4m) and Lukasz Fabianski (£4.5m) are the names that stand out in the West Ham backline from a Fantasy perspective, with Balbuena’s added goal threat and Fabianski’s save count marking them out from the other candidates in the Hammers’ defence.
From an attacking perspective and with a mind on Marko Arnautovic‘s (£7.0m) appeal over the coming months, West Ham’s Gameweek 11 opponents have conceded more efforts on goal and shots in the box than all other Premier League sides.
No team has allowed more big chances than Burnley, either.
West Ham also face all of the sides sitting in the bottom seven for shots in the box conceded between now and early January.
Brighton and Hove Albion
Next six: eve, car, LEI, hud, CRY, bur
Possible turning point: CHE (Gameweek 17)
Brighton and Hove Albion couldn’t have rewarded Fantasy investors in their defence any more than they have over the last three Gameweeks, registering successive clean sheets since their fixtures turned for the better in Gameweek 8.
Chris Hughton’s side remain high up on our Season Ticker for the next half-dozen Gameweeks, though the caveat is that four of those six fixtures are away from home.
Brighton had the worst away record in the Premier League last season, with their Gameweek 9 victory over Newcastle United their first win on the road in 2018.
Three of their next four away matches are eminently winnable fixtures, however, with perhaps their Gameweek 11 encounter with Everton their trickiest test between now and mid-December.
The matches at Cardiff, Huddersfield and Burnley look positive for possible clean sheets, though, with those three sides – along with Brighton themselves – in the bottom four for shots on target.
Brighton’s next six opponents are among the bottom 11 sides for big chances, too.
Given that the Seagulls’ underlying attacking statistics are far from impressive, interest in Brighton’s offensive Fantasy assets might be limited.
For those managers perhaps taking on a punt on Glenn Murray (£6.5m), who has six goals to his name already this season, there are one or two encouraging statistics in his favour.
Huddersfield, Cardiff and Burnley sit in the bottom seven for shots on target and efforts in the box conceded, with the Clarets’ defensive struggles particularly well-documented in Fantasy circles this season: no club has allowed more attempts on goal than Sean Dyche’s side.
Only four clubs – Burnley and Cardiff among them – have allowed more big chances than Everton this season, meanwhile.
Cardiff City
Next six: LEI, BHA, eve, WOL, whu, SOU
Possible turning point: wat (Gameweek 17)
While there will be few takers in Cardiff City’s Fantasy assets, we ought to mention their excellent run of half-dozen Premier League matches between now and Gameweek 17.
Not one of the Bluebirds’ fit and available players is owned by more than 1.1% of Fantasy managers, but the likes of Josh Murphy (£4.8m) and Victor Camarasa (£4.5m) have presented themselves as decent, budget-freeing fifth-choice midfield options in recent weeks.
Home form will likely be key to Cardiff’s chances of staying up and four of their next six matches will be staged at the Cardiff City Stadium.
Brighton, Wolves and Southampton sit in the bottom five for goals scored away from home this season and all three of those clubs visit South Wales in the next six Gameweeks.
The Seagulls, indeed, have registered fewer shots on goal and efforts on target away from home than all other Premier League sides.
It seems crass to even discuss such matters but what state Leicester City’s players will be in on Saturday following the tragic events of last weekend is also open to debate.
Brighton and Southampton sit in the bottom six for shots in the box conceded, with those two clubs joining West Ham and Everton in the bottom half of the table for big chances conceded.
Wolves and Leicester might be tougher nuts to crack given that they are in the top seven for fewest big chances and shots in the box conceded.
Newcastle United
Next six: WAT, BOU, bur, WHU, eve, WOL
And then: hud, FUL
Possible turning point: liv (Gameweek 19)
So good are the Magpies’ fixtures – on the face of it, at least – from mid-October until Boxing Day that we have already covered Rafael Benitez’s side in our last two frisks of the Season Ticker.
It should be noted, though, that four of Newcastle’s next six opponents sit in the top half of the Premier League table.
The Magpies enjoy two fixtures in a row at St. James’ Park but their opposition in both matches are in-form teams in the shape of Watford and Bournemouth.
Those two clubs – plus Wolves – sit in the top seven for fewest big chances conceded so any good omens for Newcastle’s much-maligned strikers are few and far between for the next two weeks at least.
United can, at least, look forward to matches against Burnley and West Ham, who sit in the bottom three for big chances conceded.
The Magpies have lost all five of their home matches this season but have shown defensive improvement since their fixtures turned for the better in Gameweek 9: in the last two matches, only five clubs have allowed fewer big chances than the Magpies.
Of what little investment in Rafael Benitez’s side is expected, much of it will be in defence.
Newcastle have already kept more clean sheets away from home this season than they did in the whole of 2017/18 and will surely be targeting another in Gameweek 13, given that no club has registered fewer shots in the box or attempts on target than Burnley this season.
The Magpies have conceded on just three occasions in five matches against clubs outside the “big six”, keeping three clean sheets along the way.
They have also failed to score in any of those matches, however.
Also Consider
Leicester City (car, BUR, wha, WAT, ful, TOT) and Huddersfield Town (FUL, WHU, wol, BHA, bou, ars) both enjoy excellent runs of matches before trickier fixtures in Gameweeks 15 and/or 16.
The Foxes’ chances of keeping a clean sheet or two look positive in the next three Gameweeks, with Cardiff, Burnley and West Ham sitting in the bottom five for big chances created.
Those three clubs and Fulham also give hope to owners of Jamie Vardy (£9.0m) and James Maddison (£7.0m), given that they all sit in the bottom five for shots on target and big chances conceded.
Spurs, indeed, are also in the lower half of the table for attempts on target allowed.
Interest in Huddersfield Town’s FPL assets will be scarce, given that they have kept only one clean sheet and scored the fewest number of goals (four) in the Premier League this season.
With home matches to come against Fulham, West Ham and Brighton – who all sit in the bottom five for shots on target conceded – in the next four Gameweeks, the Terriers at least enjoy the best sequence of matches between now and Gameweek 14.
The Weak
Bournemouth
Next six: MUN, new, ARS, mci, HUD, LIV
And then: wol, BHA, tot, mun
Possible turning point: WAT (Gameweek 21)
Bournemouth’s form versus fixtures was another subject of our Digest article this week and there is no doubting that the Cherries endure one of the worst medium-term schedules in the Premier League.
Offloading the Cherries’ assets, however, may be a premature decision – certainly for the next three Gameweeks, anyhow.
Jose Mourinho and Unai Emery’s sides have kept only three clean sheets between them in 20 Premier League matches this season, with only one of those shut-outs coming in an away fixture.
The pair also rank joint-14th and 13th respectively for shots on target conceded in 2018/19 and both clubs have conceded at least 20 big chances this season (Manchester City, by way of comparison, have only allowed five).
Newcastle, meanwhile, have allowed more attempts on goal and shots in the box than all bar three Premier League sides this season and have yet to record a clean sheet at St. James’ Park.
It goes without saying that the matches in Gameweeks 14, 16 and 17 are the sterner tests for the likes of Callum Wilson (£6.4m) and Ryan Fraser (£6.1m), with Liverpool, Manchester City and Wolves sitting in the top four for fewest big chances conceded – along with Bournemouth themselves.
While managers may be happy to give their attacking Bournemouth assets a stay of execution, the time may be approaching to offload the likes of Steve Cook (£4.6m).
The Cherries have impressed defensively in keeping four clean sheets this season but four of their next six opponents sit in the top five teams for shots on target attempted.
Arsenal
Next six: LIV, WOL, bou, TOT, mun, HUD
Possible turning point: HUD (Gameweek 16)
Arsenal’s fixture run is the worst in the division for the approaching five Gameweeks, with their next four opponents sitting in the top five for fewest big chances conceded.
Any Fantasy manager who owns Alexandre Lacazette (£9.8m) may be tempted to ditch the French striker after his back-to-back blanks and factoring in the impressive defences that Arsenal face in the coming month, but Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang‘s (£10.9m) scintillating form will surely see him retained in a large chunk of the 15% of FPL teams that he currently sits in.
The Gunners at least have three of those aforementioned matches at the Emirates, where they are scoring at a rate of two goals per game this season.
FPL bosses who invested in an Arsenal defender for their excellent run of fixtures from Gameweeks 3 to 10 will surely be bailing out, with their next five opponents sitting in the top nine for most big chances created.
Also Consider
Crystal Palace‘s (che, TOT, mun, BUR, bha, whu) atrocious run we highlighted in our last frisk of the fixtures but there is light at the end of the tunnel from Gameweek 14 onwards.
The next three fixtures are all meetings against “big six” sides, however, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£4.3m) will surely remain benched in his FPL owners’ squads until December given that Chelsea, Spurs and Manchester United all rank in the top six for big chances in 2018/19.
Only three sides have scored fewer goals than the Eagles this season and meetings before the international break with two sides who have recorded a combined nine clean sheets in 20 fixtures doesn’t bode well for Wilfried Zaha (£6.9m).
Fulham‘s (hud, liv, SOU, che, LEI, mun) defensive problems are well-documented and owners of Liverpool and Chelsea assets will be licking their lips for those two clubs’ meetings with the Cottagers in the next four Gameweeks.
Most of the Fantasy interest in Fulham’s players is focused on Andre Schurrle (£6.0m) and Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.9m), of course, rather than their backline.
Games against Liverpool and Chelsea certainly look unappealing for those two players, given that those clubs rank second and third for fewest shots on target conceded.
Southampton have seemigly shored things up in the last two Gameweeks, too, keeping back-to-back clean sheets and conceding only one big chance.
