Wisdom of The Crowd: Gameweek 12

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 11 REVIEW

There were green arrows once again for the crowd predictions last weekend, with 7 correct picks out of 10, including 1 Exact pick and 4 Close.  Our Crowd Wisdom user is into the top 28% on Superbru, demonstrating that the collective wisdom of the crowd performed better than most individuals.

GAMEWEEK 12 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW12:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Liverpool’s home fixture with leaky Fulham is the standout fixture this weekend, and with at least three goals expected, it might be worth doubling up on both Mo Salah and Sadio Mane.  But it may also be worth considering owning both Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold, given that Fulham are not expected to score at Anfield.

Elsewhere, Chelsea and Arsenal are predicted to score at least twice in their home fixtures with Everton and Wolves respectively, whilst Tottenham and Man City are also worth considering.

In defence, Leicester, West Ham, Brighton and Watford are expected to keep it tight, offering budget-friendly options at the back.

Here are the aggregated predictions that we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data.