Aerial Threats from the Back

We all love a big ol’ centre back that comes lumbering forward from the defence for the corners, the kind that you know the cameras will all be intensely trained on because you can guarantee that the cross will be aimed directly for his head. In GW16 we saw 2 centre backs grab goals – Tarkowski for Burnley grabbing a nice goal from a freekick and David Luiz flicking in a header from a corner for Chelsea. Both were rewarded with some lovely scores – 14 and 15 respectively, making them the 2nd and joint 3rd highest scorers of the week.

Question is, can we pick out any names who might repeat these feats?

First off, let’s have a look at the names that have been proving a serious aerial threat.

Aerial prowess

Before I go on any further, I should clear something up: All data used is from the members area, with a couple simple bits ran through excel. All data is based on the last 4 matches, either last 4 total, last 4 home or last 4 away, as stated. Furthermore, this was written on Monday, prior to the Everton vs Watford game, so stats for those will not be included. Instead, I used their stats from GW 12.

The table shows the 11 defenders with 3 or more headed attempts in the last 4 games. Topping the charts for the most headed attempts is Sean Morrison from Cardiff, at 6 in 4 games. Ok, fine – I’m not going to start recommending that a Cardiff defender is the buy of the season, but he’s at least worthy of consideration.  Only 3 games against the top 6 in the next 16 is a fairly kind run, plus he’s started every game the season, with 2 assists in the last 3, taking his total to 4. In total, he’s had 7 shots from inside the box in the last 4, 3rd best among defenders, one of which was a big chance. Admittedly, not a single shot has actually been on target, but nonetheless, it’s promising (for a Cardiff defender)!

Topping the headed attempts per 90 is one half of the imperious Brighton CB duo that have been heroic in their returns, reaching 2nd (Shane Duffy) and 3rd (Lewis Dunk) top scorers for Brighton. Sadly, the one with fantastic headed attempt rate is Mr Duffy, who’s currently served one game of his 3-game ban. So, ignoring him for now, we move to 2nd place and a very interesting option – Michael Keane. A popular option recently, Keane could benefit from Everton’s upcoming string of nice fixtures to start adding to his clean sheet total for the season.  However, with 1.67 headed attempts per 90 for the last 4 games, I think there’s a good chance he’ll add to his solitary league goal this season, sooner rather than later. With some fantastic crossers of the ball in Siggy and Digne, the potential is certainly there – no team has had more crosses in their last 4 games than Everton (100 crosses).

If you are looking for someone a bit pricier and more likely to get clean sheets, Virgil Van Dijk could be your man. On a personal note, I had Van Dijk in Gameweek 1, in a misguided attempt to avoid the more template Andrew Robertson. As a result, I have a slight Vendetta against him now, but I’ll try stay impartial! Van Dijk is the most nailed man in the Liverpool backline that has returned 9 clean sheets already this season. However, until now, he hasn’t scored in the league. Is that about to change? 4 headed attempts in the last 4, 5 goal attempts in total, it seems possible. Historically, he’s been a decent goal scorer in the air, but with most of his goals coming in other competitions outside of the Premier League, so perhaps don’t expect too much. One goal though, would very likely result in a massive 12+ score though.

Callum Chambers is also worth a mention. 4.2 million, playing OOP in midfield, certainly seems an intriguing option with Fulham’s improving fixtures. Add into that 3 headed goal attempts, of 10 total goal attempts (7 in the box), and you have a very positive outlook. No defender has had more attempts on goal in the last 4, which is hard to complain over given his kind price tag. However, his run of games in the team came to an end midweek as he dropped out of the squad completely against United – hopefully just a timely rest. Like Morrison though – don’t expect the world. He plays for Fulham after all 😉

Terence Kongolo is the last one I’ll highlight for now. Another budget option at 4.3 million, him and his teammate Schindler have been attracting interest due to some kind fixtures in the next 6. Whilst Schindler is being preferred by most currently, could Kongolo be a smart differential? 4 headed goal attempts in the last 4, with one developing into a goal, against weaker teams it’s very possible that this could be improved on further. Huddersfield love themselves some crosses, with them having the 5th most crosses in the last 4, with only 14.7% of chances coming through the middle. Of course, a centre back won’t be getting on the end of most of these crosses as they come from open play, but it suggests that their game plan and attitude might suit a goal scoring centre back.

Next up, let’s have a look at the teams that might be vulnerable to one of our aerial aces.

Vulnerable to aerial attack 

You could spend a while analysing which of these teams are more vulnerable than others from crosses and whatnot, so I’ll keep it fairly simple and just pick out 5 teams, in alphabetical order:

Burnley – Burnley are shipping so many attempts on goal at the moment it is no surprise that they are high up on both headed attempts conceded and attempts from set plays conceded. It also doesn’t seem to matter if they are at home or away, they’ll still be one of the league’s worst.
Cardiff – Another team doing very poorly for headed goal attempts (League worst) and set plays conceded (2nd worst). Again, home or away they are vulnerable.
Leicester – Quietly slipping onto the list of worst teams for headed attempts and set plays conceded is Leicester, somewhat surprisingly perhaps. The stat that really jumps out for them is the huge 26 chances conceded from set pieces in their last 4 away games. Therefore, it’s definitely worth keeping an eye out for those facing up against them when they are away from the King Power.
Newcastle – Take Leicester, and flip them. Rafa and the Toon army love to ship headed attempts at home, running away with the league’s worst in both categories in their last 4 home matches. Based on this, headed goals against them seem inevitable when they play at home.
Wolves – Wolves have had some of our most popular defensive assets of the season, with Patricio, Jonny and of course Doherty. However, owners will know how frequently the anguish of lost clean sheets comes up, and this has the potential to be exploited. Topping the set play attempts conceded in the last 4, with 26, and the joint second worst headed attempts conceded, a big CB could have a field day there.

Therefore, looking for the teams that might be able to face up against multiple of these teams.

Targetting the weak

A couple teams jump out immediately.

Everton, and their aerial ace Keane, face up against both Burnley and then a chance to exploit Leicester’s struggles on the road in gameweeks 19 and 21. Remembering their string of nice fixtures starting from that Burnley game, Keane looks a good possibility.
Tottenham and Palace both face 3 of these 5 teams in their next 5 games. Picking an option from these teams is tricky – the only defender with good headed goal attempts stats is James Tomkins, who misses the Leicester game after his 5th yellow of the season. Perhaps Toby Alderweireld could be an option with 2 set piece attempts in his last 4 (3 starts), but we’re really stretching at this point.

Concluding thoughts

In reality, I’m not going to suggest that any of these players are going to be the next big thing for FPL. However, they are worthy of consideration. If you’re looking for something a bit different, or someone that might grab you a goal whilst also making use of a block of fixtures, one of these might be for you.

Personally, I’ve just come off a wildcard, in which I found there was pretty much no defenders that jumped out at me in the 4.5 category.

Looking back now, someone like Keane, Chambers, or Kongolo would have tempted me.

It’s tough to stray away from the attacking fullbacks though, so maybe this is just something to bear in mind rather than actively act on.