License to Skill: 007 tips for hokey-cokey success

When the Scoutcast team labels you the James Bond of fantasy football, a man who men want to be and women want to be around, you have to wonder if the world, or at least the FPL community, has gone a little mad. Even my own girlfriend’s response to my current Overall Rank of 35 was only a deft Eden Hazard flick to the impressed side of nonchalant. I believe her words were something like: “That’s great. Is there a prize for 35th?”

What about when I took a bold -8 hit in Gameweek 22 to remove Hazard, Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane for Mohamed Salah (captain), Leroy Sané and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, resulting in a positive 14-point swing? Mild interest at best.

Still, the Scoutcast members reacted to these transfers with a mix of awe and astonishment – not due to the immediate pay-off, it seemed, but rather because no self-respecting FPL manager ranked this high would dare take such a gamble. The disbelief was palpable.

Yet this seemingly fast and loose strategy is precisely what sent me rocketing into the nosebleed section in the first place. While I’m not confident enough to save the world in a tuxedo then casually sip on a martini like an international spy, it’s fair to say my early-season nerves have now been shaken, not stirred. When your maverick moves keep working, you start to feel invincible. Could it all go up in a series of spectacular explosions (or in an FPL manager’s case, implosions)? Of course, that’s the nature of the game, but why play it wearing a straightjacket?

Which brings me to the issue of hokey-cokey. Throughout the FPL season there’s been plenty of debate and discussion around the merits or otherwise of frequently rotating premium assets and changing formations from gameweek to gameweek. What we haven’t seen much of is retrospective analysis, where we consider the results of an atypically active transfer policy.

Well, if you’ll indulge me, this James Bond wannabe would like to share 007 tips for hokey-cokey success. While I assure you this strategy has worked wonders so far, I offer no guarantees or promises.

All I can offer you is a Licence to Skill. Should you choose to accept, please proceed without caution.

1. FOCUS ON THE 3 F’S

My transfer policy is built on the foundation of the 3 Fs – form, fixtures and feeling. With form, I’m looking for strong signs that a particular player or team is either in it or right on the cusp of it. You can’t afford to ponder the evidence for too long. When you can smell the points on the horizon, it’s time to make your move. With fixtures I’m looking for an immediate schedule that screams goals or clean sheets, depending on your transfer target. Two or three promising gameweeks is plenty. With ‘feeling’, however, I’m looking for that je ne sais quoi that gets you a Ryan Fraser, not a Ross Barkley. This is where your statistical analysis, your eye test, your ability to absorb good advice and your superior knowledge of the game should come to the fore.

2. THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX

It’s common, and entirely reasonable, to trade an injured, suspended or underperforming player for the best alternative within your budget. Sometimes this is optimal, but not always. As with any weakness, there’s also an opportunity to get creative and discover an exciting solution. In FPL terms this means messing around with multiple transfer combinations, and taking hits if necessary. Saving two free transfers and playing a mini-Wildcard is an underrated weapon. You’re searching for a way to strengthen two, three or even four positions in your squad all at the same time. Rather than trading like for like, think about the bigger picture. Again, let the 3 Fs guide your attacking instincts. If you get it right you’ll be well on the way to a massive gameweek or two.

3. DELAY YOUR TRANSFERS

Last-minute transfers – sometimes options I hadn’t even considered until deadline day – have led to many of my most successful gameweeks this season. The later you leave it, the more informed your decision-making. Being able to rely on up-to-date team news, not to mention having additional thinking time up your sleeve, is far more important than protecting team value. In my opinion, this form of discipline is one of the most underrated skills in the game. It’s also possible to grow your team value organically, without being a slave to the fluctuating transfer market. Simply by owning players who score a lot of points, your team value will rise as other managers follow.

4. DON’T BE AFRAID

Many FPL managers are inherently risk averse. There’s nothing wrong with that. However, it is a mistake to fear transfers, hits and an overall proactive approach to the game. Somewhat counterintuitively, playing a version of hokey-cokey does not automatically mean you’re taking massive risks. In fact, hokey-cokey helps protect you against the biggest risk of all – a high percentage of your rivals scoring points from the players you don’t own when the fixtures are favourable. You’re never going to get every decision right; nor is that a realistic objective.

5. FIND A BALANCE

The difference between a great gameweek and a bad gameweek can be huge. Yet for some reason many FPL managers are reluctant to pay 4 points for a potentially decisive upgrade to their starting 11. We’re so scared of beginning a Gameweek on negative points that we forget where it might end if all goes to plan. That is not to suggest hits are always the answer. There’s a place for both patience and proactivity in this game. The question is, are you open to finding that balance?

6. COVER THE CAPTAINCY

Premium asset hokey-cokey is the best and indeed only way to ensure you own the leading captaincy candidate/s each and every gameweek. Yes you can plan ahead, but the FPL landscape is constantly shifting. Since nothing hurts your rank more than a double-digit score by a popular choice for the armband who’s not even in your team, it makes sense to cover this risk as often as possible. Think Aguero’s hat-trick versus Huddersfield in Gameweek 2 or Kane’s consecutive hat-tricks following the infamous ‘Kanexit’ last season. These are the moments that destroy your FPL momentum. By playing premium hokey-cokey you can mitigate against such disasters.

7. STAY POSITIVE

No strategy is bulletproof. No matter how much research you do, things can still go wrong. However, a bad gameweek doesn’t make a bad strategy. Sometimes a transfer will cost you points. Other times it will send you flying up the rankings. The trick, obviously, is to get it right more often than not. You know the game better than most, so clear your mind, stay positive and keep making rational decisions. Points are there for the taking.

LOOKING AHEAD

In conclusion, I’ll be sticking to my strategy for the remainder of the FPL season and seeing where this crazy mission takes me. Hopefully inside the top 10, but more likely crashing back down to earth. I’m a secret agent stepping out of the shadows. The way I see it, I’ve got absolutely nothing to lose.

After all, there are no prizes for 35th.