Wisdom of The Crowd: Gameweek 27

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 26 REVIEW

The Crowd Wisdom picks managed 6 out of 10 last time round, just beating the community average of 5.81, which didn’t bring about much change on the leaderboards.

GAMEWEEK 27 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW27:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

With Man City absent and Liverpool away at Man United, things look a little different this week.  Arsenal are top of the Predicted Goals Chart, with their home tie against Southampton, whilst Tottenham is the only other team predicted to score at least twice.

In defence, Newcastle seem to be the pick of the bunch, given that Huddersfield are yet to score an away goal in 2019.  Arsenal, West Ham, and Tottenham are also predicted to keep it tight at the back in what is expected to be a relatively low-scoring game week.

Here are the picks we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.

Cardiff 1 – 1 Watford
West Ham 2 – 1 Fulham
Burnley 1 – 2 Tottenham
Bournemouth 1 – 1 Wolves
Newcastle 2 – 0 Huddersfield
Leicester 1 – 1 Crystal Palace
Arsenal 2 – 1 Southampton
Man United 2 – 2 Liverpool