Can Deulofeu and Deeney offer consistent returns?

Watford’s mid-price attacking assets turned heads on Friday night in a big win over Cardiff City.

The Bluebirds crumbled in front of their own fans despite impressing at home in recent weeks, while the Hornets took full advantage.

Whether their stars of Gameweek 27 will continue to offer value is the focus of this latest Scout Notes article.

Cardiff City 1-5 Watford

Goals: Sol Bamba (£4.6m) | Gerard Deulofeu x3 (£5.5m), Troy Deeney x2 (£5.9m)

Assists: Deeney, Abdoulaye Doucouré (£5.9m), Etienne Capoue (£4.8m), Deulofeu, Will Hughes (£4.9m)

Gerard Deulofeu (£5.5m) lit up Blank Gameweek 27 with a 23-point haul in Watford’s win at Cardiff. The Spaniard pounced on his opportunities ruthlessly to score a hat-trick and provided an assist later in the game too. It was a night where the FPL midfielder finally benefitted in a big way from Javi Gracia’s decision to play him as a striker this season, and his Gameweek 27 score has already led to 7,000 managers signing him up. At the time of writing, only Sergio Aguero (£11.5m) has picked up more new owners in the build-up to Gameweek 28.

“It was important the three goals, but in my opinion, it was more important to assist after the three goals to be generous and pass it. He played very well today, scoring three goals. He is playing well, attacking, defending and giving a good balance to the team.” – Javi Gracia

Deulofeu was obviously one of Watford’s most dangerous players at the Cardiff City Stadium, finishing the match joint-top for shots inside the box and shots on target. Whether it’s the sort of form he can sustain is another matter as he doubled his goal tally for the season in one match. All three of Deulofeu’s efforts in the penalty area found the back of the net, making for an abnormally high goal conversion rate of 75% in the match. Furthermore, the former Everton man had averaged just one penalty box shot per game in the last four Gameweeks, so in order for Deulofeu to be taken seriously as a reliable mid-price midfielder, he will have to ensure a greater volume of goal attempts in the right place over an elongated period. After all, his 23-point haul in Gameweek 27 was the first time without a blank for seven matches.

Troy Deeney (£5.9m) perhaps looks like a more appealing Fantasy asset as he once again showed the potential for a spread of points. His two goals and assist made for a more modest, but still hugely impressive 15 points. Deeney was level with Deulofeu for shots inside the box in south Wales, but had more total goal attempts than any other player. Furthermore, the striker has shown more potential than Deulofeu in the preceding matches, shooting more often than the Spaniard since Gameweek 23 and creating six more chances than him. However, with his returns at Cardiff the first since Gameweek 21, Deeney needs to show some more consistency before being seriously considered.

The result itself was something of a surprise as Watford had recently struggled going forward. In the four matches that preceded their visit to Cardiff, the Hornets were bottom of the league for shots on target, and only West Ham had registered fewer goal attempts in the penalty area. At Cardiff, their number of accurate shots was one higher than the total for the previous four Gameweeks. Meanwhile, Watford improved on 5.25 penalty box efforts between Gameweeks 23 and 26 by registering seven against Cardiff.

“Four games before we had the most missed chances in Premier League. But we were always creating chances. Today Deulofeu had two one-v-one and he scored. In other games, he didn’t and this is the difference between one game and another. I am very proud of all of my players. All of them are showing their quality, their commitment. I am very happy for the supporters as well.” – Javi Gracia

Whether Watford will find themselves handing out a thrashing in the Premier League again also remains to be seen. They were ruthless on the counter-attack but their attacking statistics were not that far away from Cardiff’s. The two teams had the same number of efforts inside the penalty box as each other and the home team actually registered more total goal attempts across the 90 minutes. In the first hour, Watford weren’t particularly impressive in possession and did not show much rhythm, Deulofeu’s opening goal falling to him from Deeney with an element of fortune. Crucially, the two clubs were not far apart in terms of expected Goals (xG), Watford overperforming against their score of 2.11 with a delta of +2.89.

Watford were unable to secure a third successive clean sheet despite their domination of the scoreline. In recent weeks the Hornets have allowed plenty of opportunities for their opponents and have belied their defensive data with three shut-outs in four matches. However, the bubble burst in the second half at Cardiff, as Bamba bundled a consolation goal over the line following a corner, perhaps not a surprise considering that the Hornets had conceded more penalty box shots than any other side in the four previous away matches to Friday night’s encounter.

Cardiff were certainly unlucky not to have been awarded a penalty for a foul on Josh Murphy (£4.8m) in the first half, but they still should have been more clinical with the chances they did have.

It was an interesting team selection by Neil Warnock who dropped Bobby Reid (£5.2m), two goals in as many matches, to the bench. Oumar Niasse (£5.0m) led the line by himself and was the only attacking Cardiff player to register a shot on target all night. However, he should have found the net himself with one golden chance in particular not converted by him.

The Bluebirds are clearly missing Victor Camarasa (£4.6m) who remains sidelined with an injury problem. Cardiff were especially poor in central midfield with Leandro Bacuna (£4.5m) having a bad game. According to the local press, his role for the Bluebirds was quite unclear with him initially looking like he was operating on the right of a back-five before drifting into central midfield.

The implications for Cardiff’s defence were catastrophic as all the shape and discipline they had shown in recent weeks slowly ebbed away with each minute against Watford. Ironically, it might have been the return of injured captain Sean Morrison (£4.7m) that caused them the problems as he was below par in his first game back and was at fault for the opening goal. The decision to throw him back into the side was questioned by supporters at full time, especially considering the partnership Bamba and Bruno Ecuele Manga (£4.4m) had established recently. The latter was pushed back out to right-back by Morrison’s inclusion.

Cardiff City XI (4-3-3): Etheridge; Bennett, Morrison, Bamba, Ecuele Manga; Arter, Bacuna, Ralls (Mendez-Laing 67′); Murphy (Hoilett 56′), Niasse (Zohoré 71′), Paterson

Watford XI (4-4-2): Foster; Masina, Cathcart, Mariappa, Janmaat; Pereyra (Quina 71′), Capoue (Cleverley 78′), Doucouré, Hughes; Deeney, Deulofeu (A Gray 85′).