Spot the Differential
1 March 2019 2163 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
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This regular series puts the spotlight on three players whose ownership in Fantasy Premier League is below 5% – or in one case this week, just slightly above it.

We’ve looked at a defender, a midfielder and a forward with appealing matches this weekend as well as guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Michail Antonio (£6.8m)

FPL ownership: 1.6%

There was a mad rush on Felipe Anderson (£7.2m) ahead of West Ham’s match against Fulham in Gameweek 27, with Fantasy managers also perhaps having one eye on the weeks ahead when snapping the Brazilian up – the Hammers have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33 as well as some appealing matches beforehand.

While Anderson has struggled for form (one assist in nine matches), his team-mate Michail Antonio (£6.8m) has quietly been more impressive.

Antonio has two goals, one assist and two bonus points in the last four Gameweeks.

The former Nottingham Forest midfielder has started 11 of the last 12 Premier League matches and while the return to fitness of Manuel Lanzini (£6.4m) and Samir Nasri (£5.3m) is perhaps cause for concern, both those players shared game-time in the “number ten” role – rather than wide on the right, where Antonio generally plays – on Wednesday evening in Manchester.

When filtered by last six home matches, only three midfielders – all of them premium ones – have recorded more shots in the box than Antonio.

Antonio’s ability in the air could also be an advantage when Newcastle visit the London Stadium on Saturday: Antonio has recorded more headed goal attempts than any other FPL midfielder when again filtered by last six home matches.

The Magpies, meanwhile, have conceded more headed chances than all Premier League teams bar Burnley this season.

Jamie Vardy (£8.8m)

FPL ownership: 5.3%

We’ve slightly bent the rules on this one.

Jamie Vardy‘s FPL ownership was hovering just below the 5% mark at the planning stage of this article but a modest number of inbound transfers has tipped him over the edge of our usual cut-off point for differentials.

The impact of Claude Puel’s exit is still yet to be fully determined but there was seemingly no love lost between the now-departed Frenchman and Vardy, with the Leicester City striker having previously said Puel’s style didn’t suit him.

Similarly, we are yet to see how the appointment of Brendan Rodgers as Leicester manager affects Vardy’s output.

The “new manager bounce” could be the catalyst for Vardy’s renaissance as a Fantasy asset, however, with the ex-England striker having previously enjoyed a purple patch (five goals in as many matches) when Craig Shakespeare replaced another alleged “adversary” in Claudio Ranieri in February 2017.

Vardy, indeed, was on the scoresheet against Brighton on Tuesday night in Mike Stowell’s sole game in charge.

Certainly, Leicester have some appealing fixtures ahead, starting with a trip to a Watford side that rank in the bottom five for attempts on goal, shots in the box and big chances conceded over the last six Gameweeks.

The Foxes also avoid any of the “big six” from now until Gameweek 36 and have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Vardy’s underlying stats aren’t great over the last six Gameweeks but the calibre of the Foxes’ opposition (Liverpool, Manchester United, Spurs) and the Leicester striker’s benching at Wembley have to be taken into account.

Only two FPL forwards have been presented with more “big chances” than Vardy in 2018/19.

James Tarkowski (£4.7m)

FPL ownership: 4.4%

Burnley’s eight-match unbeaten run came to an end on Tuesday night but there is little argument that the Clarets have massively improved following their well-documented struggles earlier this season.

Over the last nine Gameweeks, only four clubs have shipped fewer goals than Sean Dyche’s side.

Just five sides have allowed fewer big chances in that time.

Burnley now have three home matches in the next four Gameweeks – one of which is in Blank Gameweek 31.

Tarkowski recorded three attempts on goal on Tyneside in midweek: Shane Duffy (£4.7m) is the only FPL defender who has registered more shots in the box over the last six Gameweeks.

Only three FPL assets in any position (let alone defence) have registered more efforts than Tarkowski from inside the opposition six-yard box this season.

  1. melvinmbabazi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Thoughts this week? 2FT 2.3 ITB

    Patricio I Button
    Robertson I Digne I Doherty I Pereira I *Laporte
    Salah| Pogba | Son I Felipe I Hojberg I
    Rashford I Jiminez I Barnes

    Cheers

    1. timmmuh
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      Patricio apparently to bench for this week (in prep for FA Cup game). See comments last page. Ruddy to start tomorrow.

    2. Zladan
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      Pat to Boruc for GW31 prep + Pat is benched this week.

      Then enjoy the 2.8m elsewhere.

    3. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      Great my rival has him!

  2. Denver Omelette
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    2FT, should i do:

    A. Son + Aguero -> Sterling + Vardy
    B. Son + Salah -> Sterling + Mane
    C. Son + Fanderson -> Sterling + Hayden
    D. Roll FT

  3. Tingate
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Lost on last page...

    Probably been asked a few hundred times but is there any article which shows the best approach for no FH but all other chips? Thanks!

  4. avfc82
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Jesus back in contention.

    1. jtreble
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      Thanks for posting. What have you heard about Jesus?

      1. avfc82
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        Gabriel Jesus is back in contention. Another Fernandinho/Laporte update from Guardiola: Fernandinho after the international break, Laporte maybe a few days later.

        Stones is back too, Guardiola says.

        1. jtreble
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 22 days ago

          Thanks for sharing.

      2. Zladan
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        Well, among many other stories, I’ve heard the lad can turn water into wine.

  5. GS456
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Would you bench

    A) Harvey Barnes
    B) Rondon

    1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      A

  6. pressdpm
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    2FT's and 1.9 spare. Any advice?

    Fabianski
    Bennett - Robertson - Kolasinac
    Salah - Son - F.Anderson - Pogba
    Rashford - Jiminez - Aguero

    Speroni - Digne - Wan Bissake - Biling

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      swap AWB for Kola.

      (your team is almost identical to mine btw) and i'm talking 12 of the same players here

      1. pressdpm
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        Haha, what move(s) you doing this week?

        1. Ten Season Wonder
          • 12 Years
          7 years, 22 days ago

          Just went for my lunch bro hence late reply...

          erm, Sonny out for either Haz or Mane.
          ( i only have 1FT but 2.5 itb)

  7. Vobinho
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Guardiola confirms that Gabriel Jesus is back for City this weekend. So he can rest Sergio Aguero without having to play Raheem Sterling or somebody else out of position (not that he won’t still do that)

    Source : MEN

    1. Ten Season Wonder
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      DO I fear not captaining Kun now then?

      Play it safe with Pigba?

  8. fr3d
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Has Pep revealed his starting XI yet?

    1. JIMMY TUGGINS
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      Not yet but I think he will if people keeping asking every 10 minutes.

      1. fr3d
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        Did he say anything about Sane?

  9. Ten Season Wonder
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    *Bottomed sorry

    [Really scraping the drags of the draft barrel out here...]
    But which defensive option should I go with for the next 3GWs? (mainly for GW30 + the BGW31)

    A). Ake (MCY)............ (hud, NEW)
    B). Matip (eve)............ (BUR, ful)
    C). Yedlin (whu).......... (EVE, bou)
    D). Rice (NEW)........... (car, HUD)

    * I am stocked up in defence this week so they won't play anyway.

    1. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      If you are playing draft and have monthly transfers then Rice is Ideal for next 3. And if you don't mean that then still get him.

  10. Will
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Is Aubameyang & Son to Rondon & Sterling madness?

    1. GS456
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      Looks good to me

  11. BlzE_94
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    GTG lads?

    Ederson
    Robertson Doherty Digne
    Sterling Hazard Pogba Son Anderson
    Rashford Jimenez

    Bench: Button, King, Wan-Bissaka, Connolly

    1. GS456
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      Yep nice that.

      Maybe start Wann Biss over Digne?

      1. BlzE_94
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        Thanks, he's still injured no?

      2. H-Over United
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        So he can't get -2?

  12. Eat my goal!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Am I gtg?

    Fabs
    Taa vvd doherty
    Salah haz (P)ogba Sterling son
    Rondon Barnes

    Bennett pereira

  13. FPL_Hazards
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Jesus back, Aguero knackered :-0

  14. Surfeit of Lampteys
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Anybody tempted by lanzini? Bit too punty maybe?

    Also when does the FFS cup start, does anybody know?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      Starts this GW, article should be out soon.
      56 and decent rank needed from memory.

      1. Surfeit of Lampteys
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        Thanks tm. Ah ok score wise, 140k rank I think is decent but maybe not decent enough

    2. Eastman
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      Yes I am. Him or Antonio

  15. Wxdz
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Building for GW 31, thoughts on this one for (-4)

    Son + AWB + Mitrovic --> Brooks (bench this week) + Luiz + Higuain

    Team will look like this with 2 itb
    Fab
    TAA Robbo Bennet Luiz (AWB)
    Pog Salah Sterling (c)
    Jimenez Rondon Higuain (Mitrovic)

    Boruc - Perreira Brooks (Son) Hojbjerg

  16. waldo666
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Bearing in mind that when he rises I won't be able to afford him, worth doing Bamba to TAA -4?

  17. I Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Patricio -> Fabianski for a hit. Yay or nay?

    1. GS456
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      I’m gonna do it for free I think

    2. JIMMY TUGGINS
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      Getting rid for Boruc after Cardiff.

      1. I Member
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        Patricio is out this week.

        1. JIMMY TUGGINS
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 22 days ago

          Thanks, haven't seen anything until now.

      2. JIMMY TUGGINS
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        Oh wait, what's the Pat news? Is he out?

        1. GS456
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 22 days ago

          Rotated to prepare ruddy for the cup

  18. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 16 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    I wonder does Pep give Jesus Bourenmouth & Watford starts to give Kun a bit of a break after all these minutes of late

    1. Vobinho
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      I have two options.

      Aguero to Higuain
      Aguero to Jesus for a huge differential

      1. Volley127
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        Aguero to Jesus is absurd

    2. avfc82
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      I have no idea, I can actually still see Aguero starting tomorrow, but wouldn't be surprised at all if it's Jesus. Then a weeks rest, Watford (Sat), Schalke (Tue), Swansea (Sat) and international break, which Aguero will probably have off completely.

      1. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        Too risky to sell ? I'm tempted to sell Aguero for a GW31 asset and bring Sterling on board for City cover. Means I'd only have 8 for 31 but Sterling against BOU and WAT is incredibly tempting. Also considering Hazard instead of Sterling but still not completely convinced by Chelsea as yet, even though they are about to face Fulham.

        1. avfc82
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          7 years, 22 days ago

          I wouldn't sell Aguero, but I also own Sterling, so thats easy for me to say.

  19. #FPLBhuna
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    gabriel jesus.

  20. FPL Scoop
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Happily ditched Auba, but very reluctantly ditched Son - so hoping for a boring 1-1 NLderby. Winks and Torreira goals!

    1. Zladan
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      More Trippier OGs.

  21. GS456
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Aguero almost certain to be benched now for me.

    Him and Patricio in 10 minutes.

    Happy lunch hour!

  22. Arteta
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    What are your score predictions for the Merseyside and North London derby?

    1. pressdpm
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      Everton 2 - 2 Liverpool
      Spurs 3 - 1 Arsenal

  23. FPL Scoop
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Thank god I went for Raz over Sergio with that news. Jesus has returned.

  24. KingOllie
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Who to play this gwk?

    a) awb (bur)
    b) lascelles (whu)

    1. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      AWB

      1. KingOllie
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        thanks mate

  25. BinManJack
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Hi all,

    Current team is:

    Pat
    Robbo / Doherty / Rice
    FAnderson / Pogba (C) / Salah / Sterling
    Rondon / Jimenez / Rashford

    Bench: Richarlison / Diop / AWB

    Based on the news that AWB is fit for tomorrow, do I have the right bench and right positions?
    Rice / Diop (New H)
    AWB (Bur A)
    Rich (Liv H)
    Rondon (WHU A)

  26. Cruz88
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Almost tempted to do Aguero > Rash with that Jesus news (for a -4)

    1. GENERATION X
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      Think I will go to Higuain or Vardy now for the hit and get further on with 31 prep...

      1. pressdpm
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        Tempted by the same

      2. Cruz88
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 22 days ago

        True. Getting rash in though would give me enough ITB for Anderson to Mane next week. Could put in someone like Wilson instead but not sure he's ready

    2. Cookie Kid
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      No

  27. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Currently have 7 for GW31
    Have Salah and TAA and looking for 3rd Liverpool.
    Would you rather:
    A) Mane
    B) Van Dijk/Robertsson
    If I aim for B, then would get Hazard this week and VVD next week.
    If A then Mane this week and worry about defenders later.
    Currently thinking B, that is Hazard + double Liv-defense, agree?

  28. Gentle_Turks
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Hazard captain anyone?

    1. BlzE_94
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 22 days ago

      currently on him, between him sterling and pogba for me

  29. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 15 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    ruddy starts for wolves this weekend

  30. ElliotJHP
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 22 days ago

    Got real fine margins on my blank transfers.

    Worth doing Aguero, Son -> Vardy, Hazard for a -4? How likely is Son to drop in value again?