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Shouting the odds: Who do the bookies back in Gameweek 34

Although the upcoming double gameweek dominates thinking, the current gameweek should also be considered. Are you prepared to weaken your team (especially on a wildcard) for the promise of jam tomorrow?

Defensive returns

Let’s start with the clean sheet odds this weekend. Tottenham have a 55% chance of a clean sheet, followed by Manchester City (51%), Leicester and Manchester United (43%), Burnley (42%), Liverpool (41%) and Everton (37%).

Popular wildcard target Shane Duffy’s (£4.7m) Brighton have a 34% chance of keeping it clean, although against Cardiff, that improves to 48%. This gives Brighton a 66% chance of getting at least one clean sheet. The real probabilities are slightly lower, the bookmaker’s profit margin isn’t stripped out of these figures.

Team goals

Tottenham have the highest chance of two or more goals (78%). Bookmakers don’t change their odds for injuries to talismanic strikers. Next are Manchester City and Manchester United at 71%, Liverpool (60%), Everton (58%) and Arsenal (56%). Holders of Raul Jimenez (£6.8m) should note that Wolves are fifth bottom at 32%, whilst rival Troy Deeney’s (£5.9m) Watford have a 44% chance of two or more goals.

Most likely goal scoring forwards

Moving onto the any time goal scorer odds, Sergio Aguero (£11.7m) and Jamie Vardy (£9.2m) lead the way at 55%. Manchester United striker Romelu Lukaku (£10.8m) is third at 51%, with Marcus Rashford (£7.5m) in the next posse at 44%. Should they be ignored due to their tricky double gameweek? Raul Jimenez does beat Troy Deeney (38% versus 33%). The bookies see him as more reliable, with a lower ceiling and less potential for assists. That makes sense from his season so far. Glenn Murray (£6.3m) is a 45% chance. Unfortunately, goal scorer odds against Cardiff are not yet available.

Most likely goal scoring midfielders

Heung-Min Son (£8.6m) is a 59% chance, with Lucas Moura (£6.7m) next at 52%. If Moura can get and hold down a start in Harry Kane’s (£12.6m) absence, he seems an obvious pick. Manchester United’s Anthony Martial (£7.2m) is third at 51%, ahead of Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) at 46%. Everton duo Richarlison (£6.5m) and Glyfi Sigurdsson (£7.3m) are 44% and 40% chances respectively.

For those comparing Southampton midfielders in preparation for week 35, James Ward Prowse (£5.1m) beats Nathan Redmond (£5.3m) despite Redmond’s more advanced position (33% versus 24%). Bookmakers rate Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) and Sadio Mane (£10.1m) equally now, at 43% chances. Despite Tottenham’s high predicted goals total, Christian Eriksen (£9.2m) is still only a 31% chance to score.

Most likely goal scoring defenders

Bookmakers concur with the talk of Shane Duffy’s goal scoring abilities. He has the highest chance this week amongst defenders, with a 22% chance of scoring against Bournemouth. Even better, in midweek he’ll have another bite at the cherry.

The next five defenders for goalscoring odds caught my attention. Lucas Digne (£5.3m) is a 17% chance. Coupled with Everton’s clean sheet odds, his assist potential and Everton’s high predicted goal count, he’s a dangerous single gameweek player (as are some of Everton’s attacking assets). Jose Holebas (£4.8m) (marked as having a knock) is another 17% chance. He could be worth the little extra given his week 35 fixtures. Laurent Koscielny (£5.4m) should return from a minor injury, especially with Sokratis (£5.1m) suspended. He is a 15% chance, as is Kieran Trippier (£6.0m). Most intriguingly, Danilo (£5.0m) is next at 13%. He is predicted to start in the team news section and is a budget route into Manchester City’s defence. Oleksandr Zinchenko (£4.7m), a midfielder in FPL is due back in contention for week 35 though. Shared duties in that double gameweek is a strong possibility.

Two questions for you

If you’re playing your wildcard, to what extent should you ignore Everton, Manchester United and Leicester options this week to improve your double gameweek line up?

Can you field a defence that is reasonably priced but full of attacking potential?

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10 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Jafoole_88
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 8 days ago

    Jack Ma

  2. Jarvish
    • 4 Years
    3 months, 8 days ago

    Cheers for this. What are the sources/calculations for these percentages?

    1. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 months, 8 days ago

      It is the Ladbrokes site for the clean sheets but I started used the William Hill site for the goal scorer odds because they were more accessible.

      1. Jarvish
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 8 days ago

        Ok cheers - how were the percentages calculated?

        1. circusmonkey
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 months, 8 days ago

          So for example 3/1 means put £1 on, get £4 back if you win, so that is a 25% chance. There is the bookies profit, so in reality it is a lower %age but you're comparing one player or team with another. It is the comparison that matters, not the absolute level.

          1. Jarvish
            • 4 Years
            3 months, 8 days ago

            Ok - cheers for replying 🙂

  3. MTPockets
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 8 days ago

    Thanks for this

  4. mysteryDave
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 8 days ago

    I highly recommend oddschecker.com.

    This also strips out most (some times all) of the bookies profit margin as you are taking the best odds across many bookmakers.

  5. Gnu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 months, 5 days ago

    Why would you ignore Manchester United, they have a DGW?

    1. MeatPieSausageRoll
        3 months, 5 days ago

        Lot of bitter ABUs out there bro