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Can Redmond be trusted in Gameweek 38 finale against Huddersfield?

The arrival of Ralph Hasenhüttl at Southampton has brought the best out of FPL midfielder Nathan Redmond (£5.5m).

For that reason, many are considering him for inclusion in their squads for Gameweek 38.

With Huddersfield at home on the final day of the season, and Son Heung-min (£8.7m) suspended, he looks an easy option for Fantasy managers this weekend.

However, the midfielder has become renowned for not living up to his potential from an FPL perspective in recent seasons.

So this article will try to assess whether he is finally a trustworthy investment as the 2018/19 season comes to a close and we look forward to next year.

Fantasy Football Scout members can read on and look at the full analysis.

This season has been Redmond’s fourth consecutive in the top-flight and with one match remaining he has already surpassed his previous best points tally of 126 achieved in 2016/17.

In fact, it was that season, his debut campaign for Southampton that many were convinced that his potential would finally materialise.

However, after netting in Gameweek 1 he only managed a further six strikes and a solitary assist.

Under Mark Hughes, Redmond was very far away from our Fantasy radars

Last term things got even worse as he saw his minutes reduced and only finding the net once.

It must be said that, on the face of it, five goals and as many assists in 37 appearances for Redmond hasn’t exactly set the Fantasy world alight.

However, this does not tell the full story as it has really been a season of two parts for the Saints.

They were seriously struggling under Mark Hughes but Hasenhüttl’s arrival on the south coast has triggered a much-needed resurgence at St. Mary’s.

What impact has Hasenhüttl had on Redmond?

Hasenhüttl’s first match in charge was a 1-0 defeat to Cardiff in Gameweek 16, but since then Southampton powered themselves out of the relegation battle with consummate ease.

In order to see what impact the Austrian has had on the style of play, we will compare the data prior to his appointment (Gameweeks 1 to 15) and afterwards (Gameweek 16 onwards).

Nathan Redmond attacking statistics
GWs 1-15  GWs 16-37
FPL Goal Involvement % 0 34
Touches per match 55.3 45.2
Pen box touches 3.4 4.1
XG per match 0.1 0.3
Goals per match 0 0.2
Shots per match 1.7 2.2
Shots on target per match 0.3 0.7
Big chances 0 0.4
Assists 0 0.2
Chances Created 1.5 1.1
Big Chances Created 0.1 0.2

The above table highlights three key findings since Hasenhüttl’s hire.

Firstly, Redmond is less involved in the overall play, averaging 10 fewer touches per match.

This is also the case when you look at touches in the opponent’s half and the final third.

However, secondly, Redmond’s goal threat has significantly improved.

This is hardly surprising given that under Hughes, Redmond failed to deliver an attacking return.

Even still, there is a huge increase in almost every goal threat metric since the Welshman’s departure.

Redmond has been averaging 0.5 more shots per match, 0.4 more shots on target and 0.4 more big chances per match.

This could be partly explained by the fact he is having more touches in the penalty box, hence he is getting into more threatening positions.

It does seem as if Redmond’s owners will be less frustrated than in the past

Finally, we see that Redmond is creating 0.4 fewer chances per match.

What is noticeable, however, is that he is now creating better quality chances as illustrated by the 0.1 increase in big chances created.

The quality of these opportunities has seen him assist four goals for his team-mates since Gameweek 16.

The overall impact on FPL points has been dramatic, increasing from 2.3 per match prior to Gameweek 16 to 4.2 afterwards.

So what has changed since Hasenhüttl’s arrival? One key thing is Redmond’s position.

Rather than playing as an orthodox winger where he started the majority of matches during Hughes’s reign, he has started to take up a more central berth.

Redmond has only started out wide on two occasions under Hasenhüttl, with the Austrian favouring him as a central attacking midfielder or second striker.

This is also backed up by his heat maps (see below).

Hasenhüttl gave some further insight during in an interview with Sky Sports just weeks into his tenure.

“Before I came here he had one assist and no goals. Then in the last two games, he has one assist and one goal. That’s what I expect from such a player. When he works like the last two games it’s not surprising he has scored more because he deserves to. First work for the team and then you will see you get more chances. It’s all about also being in the net if we win the ball because then in the perfect position to get the ball otherwise if he is parking outside then we have no chance to bring him in to play. When in play, he is real quality.” – Ralph Hasenhüttl

So Southampton’s manager puts Redmond’s importance to the team down to an increased work rate and winning the ball back in the correct areas of the pitch.

It is clear that he favours the former Norwich City man in a more central and advanced role where he can be more influential.

How Does Redmond compare with other mid-priced midfielders?

I am sure it comes as no surprise that, between Gameweeks 1 and 15, Redmond did not compare favourably to other midfielders in the same price bracket.

He was only ranked in the top 20 for two statistics – shots and penalty box touches. In relation to the former, whilst he registered 25 attempts, only 7 were in the box.

However, there is a significant improvement from Gameweek 16 onwards.

The below table shows how Redmond compares with similarly priced midfielders (below £7m).

He is now top for expected goals (xG) with 6.88, expected goal involvement (xGI) with 10 and shots on target with 16.

Redmond also ranks second for penalty box touches, third for shots and fourth for big chances.

The above has resulted in him achieving 10 attacking returns in 22 matches which is also marked improvement.

The only players to surpass this figure are Diogo Jota (15), Gerard Deulofeu (12), Ryan Fraser (11) and Luka Milivojevic (11).

The only area in which Redmond noticeably falls short is in his goal conversion.

Whilst he is clearly getting quality chances he has only converted 10% of his shots.

Jota (21%), Deulofeu (19%) and Ryan Babel (19%) are examples of similar players who have approximately double the conversion rate.

Redmond’s finishing also comes in to question when analysing his big chance conversion rate as he has only scored three of his nine opportunities considered to be big by Opta (33%).

Babel is also lagging in this category, having only converted 36% of his big chances.

Jota and Deulofeu have been demonstrating more ruthlessness in front of goal converting 58 and 67% respectively.

What does the future hold for Redmond?

Having been crowned the Southampton ‘Player of the Year’ the future is looking bright for Redmond. In recent matches, his underlying statistics remain impressive and it is just a question of whether he can convert his opportunities into FPL points.

As highlighted above there are several players who are more clinical in front of goal. With Huddersfield at home on the final day of the season, I am sure he will be a popular selection this week.

As for whether he can be a key option for 2019/20 campaign, it will ultimately depend on his price and whether he can build on the improvements made since Gameweek 16 of 2018/19.

783 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Daghe Munegu
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 8 days ago

    Play Gray or Jimenez?

    1. Numb
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Jimmy - good fixture

    2. Jedi_Reed
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      At the moment, I’m on Jimi. Willing to be convinced otherwise though.

  2. Girth Brooks
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 8 days ago

    Who to captain out of this bunch - looking for a differential

    A) Arnie
    B) Zaha

    Ederson
    VVD, TAA, Valery
    Sterling, Mane, Jota, Eriksen
    Aguero, Zaha, Arnie

    1. Jedi_Reed
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Mane

      1. Girth Brooks
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Nah

    2. AC Yew
        2 months, 8 days ago

        TAA

    3. AFC49
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 8 days ago

      Robbo to Shaw?

      1. Balls of Steel
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Maybe for feee

    4. simong1
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Captain Aguero, Sterling or Mane and reasons why?

        1. Numb
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          All good options, no one can know between them and luck will play a part.

        2. Balls of Steel
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          Aguero or Sterling, better fixture and will want to score early and put the game and title to bed.. Plus both due a haul after recent 1-0 results meant very low returns

      • Revival
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Anyone else going with a Saints triple up? I will have Bednarek, Redmond and JWP.

        1. Lord in Wengerland
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          Seriously considering swopping for Redmond (already have JWP and Valery) but worried about rotation.

          1. Bagheri Arce
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            Gaffer said they will play first team. JwP and Redmond a shoo in. Would expect Valery to start too

          2. Revival
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            I'm hoping it's Huddersfield who rotate and play a few youngsters

        2. aborg
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          Me. I have JWP, Valery and Bednarek.
          They were my demise last week as they all came on from my bench giving me just 3 points between them. My lead is down to just 18 points to my rival now who has BB also to play !

          I hope Southampton players can pay me back because I will most probably play those three. I really hope they can at least keep a CS.

      • Rocky.007
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Is Robbo fit?

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          Should be fine

        2. Numb
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          Yeah

        3. AFC49
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          Didn’t train today

          1. Numb
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            That means nothing

          2. Annie
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            But should be fine so...

        4. Balls of Steel
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          More likely he starts than rested tbh

      • Dakes.
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 8 days ago

        Thinking I’ll just do Son to BSilva, honestly...

        Hazard/Doherty(bench but would play replacement over Bednarek)/Robbo out probably not worth a hit? Rival has Hazard, too.

        1. Dakes.
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          (sorry, team linked it is below)

          Lloris - speroni
          Laporte Robertson* Bednarek - doherty kelly
          Mane(c) Pogba Hazard Son** - højbjerg
          Aguero Vardy Jiménez

          Thanks!

          1. AC Yew
              2 months, 8 days ago

              Can you stretch to Salah or Sterling?

          2. Taking one for the team
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            Son to Bilva is fine, no need for hits

        2. AYLD28
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 8 days ago

          Lloris
          Robertson* TAA Laporte Valery
          Mane (c) Sterling Hazard Son*
          Aguero Ings

          Foster Long Jota Doherty

          Thoughts here? If son drops tonight I can’t get Pogba...

          1. AYLD28
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            1FT 0.1 ITB

        3. kime67
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 8 days ago

          Im benching hazard. Hes not gonna start.

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            Ok

          2. Revival
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            Yeah he might not given Chelsea got nothing to play for.

            1. Kingtut10
                2 months, 8 days ago

                Hazard is a big decision to remove tbh

            2. Dakes.
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 8 days ago

              Is he not? Hmm. Can’t bring myself to ditch for a hit though...

            3. Simple Man
              • 1 Year
              2 months, 8 days ago

              He probably plays a part of the game, but def not the whole game given its only 2 days rest and he played 120min

          3. Miguel Sanchez
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            We GTG here? Trusting Klopp wasn't fibbing about Robbo

            Fabianski
            Robbo TAA AWB
            Salah (c) Sterling Hazard Pogba Redmond
            Rashford Deeney

            Etheridge Jimenez Doherty Duffy

            1. Simple Man
              • 1 Year
              2 months, 8 days ago

              He said he should be ok, not that he is ok

              1. Miguel Sanchez
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 8 days ago

                Yeah may be wishful thinking but don't want to make my last transfer a defensive one.

          4. SMOOTH
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 8 days ago

            Robbo not seen in the 63 training pics released today. Any news on that?

            1. Kingtut10
                2 months, 8 days ago

                Klopp say he would be fine so I’m going off that

                1. Burger
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 8 days ago

                  Should be not would be.

              • Revival
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                2 months, 8 days ago

                Luckily the match is Sunday so has tommorrow to train also.v

              • Annie
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                2 months, 8 days ago

                Yes, picture presence no indication of starting or not.

              • Taking one for the team
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 8 days ago

                Not convinced Klopp will risk him

            2. Kingtut10
                2 months, 8 days ago

                Is taking out hazard a good idea or a stupid one?

                Also play one jota or A. Barnes

                1. Andy'81
                  • 1 Year
                  2 months, 8 days ago

                  We'll never know for sure till after the GW ends, I'm taking Hazard out for Sterling (more than likely) which is OK with me for my FT.

                  Jota over Barnes for me.

                  1. Kingtut10
                      2 months, 8 days ago

                      Jota vs Liverpool feels like a guaranteed 2 pts

                2. simong1
                    2 months, 8 days ago

                    Replace Son with Pogba, Moura or Fraser?

                    Pogba - terrible form but on pens and a decent fixture at home. Capable of hauling.

                    Moura - likely to play striker. Good form but may be tired after mid week hat trick in CL. Tough fixture against an in form Everton.

                    Fraser - good form. In a fixture where goals are expected but may come up against the mighty AWB so may struggle.

                    Thoughts on the best option?

                    1. Kingtut10
                        2 months, 8 days ago

                        I think Fraser will get an assist in that game but you could go all or nothing and pick pogba it is Cardiff after all

                    2. balint84
                      • 3 Years
                      2 months, 8 days ago

                      Babel or Lucas for Son? or stay with Pogba?

                      1. Kingtut10
                          2 months, 8 days ago

                          Stay with pogba

                          1. balint84
                            • 3 Years
                            2 months, 8 days ago

                            will he play anyway?

                        • Taking one for the team
                          • 4 Years
                          2 months, 8 days ago

                          Not convinced on Pogba, better alternative options

                      2. Twisted Saltergater
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        2 months, 8 days ago

                        Which do you prefer?

                        a. Son > Pogba
                        or
                        b. Jimenez > Zaha

                        Am leaning towards B tbh, but I may need my bench this week.

                        1. Kingtut10
                            2 months, 8 days ago

                            A

                            1. Twisted Saltergater
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 10 Years
                              2 months, 8 days ago

                              thanks King Tut!

                        2. balint84
                          • 3 Years
                          2 months, 8 days ago

                          Rico or Travers? (BB and only have 4.4itb)

                          1. Taking one for the team
                            • 4 Years
                            2 months, 8 days ago

                            Rico for me

                        3. Marko1985
                          • 3 Years
                          2 months, 8 days ago

                          Evening all. Im thinking of taking out Son + Jiménez this week for a -4 which of these is best replacement?

                          A) Bilva + Rondon
                          B) Redmond + Lacazette
                          C) Redmond + Rondon
                          D) Something else

                          17 points clear in my ML and guy below me has Rondon, Bilva and Redmond. Thanks

                        4. Marko1985
                          • 3 Years
                          2 months, 8 days ago

                          Is Jiménez worth taking out for a hit?

                          If so who for?

                          1. TorresMagic™ - bcvy39
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • Has Moderation Rights
                            • 10 Years
                            2 months, 8 days ago

                            Do you think any cheap forwards can score 7 or more points?

                            1. Marko1985
                              • 3 Years
                              2 months, 8 days ago

                              Possibly Rondon? Guy below me has him and I’m 17 points clear. Thinking of doing it for cover too

                            2. Mainswitch
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 1 Year
                              2 months, 8 days ago

                              Shane Long

                          2. Taking one for the team
                            • 4 Years
                            2 months, 8 days ago

                            Not for a hit

                        5. Scotty B
                          • 7 Years
                          2 months, 8 days ago

                          De Gea
                          Cathcart VVD Bednarek
                          Salah Son Babel Mane
                          Lacazette Jimenèz Wilson

                          Gunn Richarlison Doherty Dunk

                          0.7 ITB & 1 FT

                          A Moura & Alli
                          B McTominay & Aguero
                          C Long & Aguero
                          D Kompany & Pogba

                        6. YouReds
                          • 5 Years
                          2 months, 8 days ago

                          Play Jota or JWP?

                          1. Taking one for the team
                            • 4 Years
                            2 months, 8 days ago

                            Jota

                          2. Balls of Steel
                            • 3 Years
                            2 months, 8 days ago

                            JWP

                        7. YouReds
                          • 5 Years
                          2 months, 8 days ago

                          A) Mitro/Zaha + Pogba
                          B) Vardy + Fraser

                          1. Ron C John
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 1 Year
                            2 months, 8 days ago

                            B

                        8. Ron C John
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 1 Year
                          2 months, 8 days ago

                          Guaita

                          Davies TAA Duffy

                          Hazard Salah Mane Son

                          Gray Jimenez Wilson

                          Sub: Boruc, Wan Bissaka, Bednarek, Torreira
                          FT: 2
                          Bank: £0.2

                          Son injured, jimenez vs liverpool, duffy vs man city.. any thought please?

                          1. Ron C John
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 1 Year
                            2 months, 8 days ago

                            *son red card

                          2. Lazaretti
                            • 1 Year
                            2 months, 8 days ago

                            Play Bednarek. Son to B.Silva

                        9. CHARLIE HULL
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 1 Year
                          2 months, 8 days ago

                          Start 2 of the below:

                          A) Hojberg
                          B) Jimenez
                          C) Jota
                          D) Gray

                        10. MeinBergkamp
                          • 1 Year
                          2 months, 8 days ago

                          I need a midfielder

                          1. MeinBergkamp
                            • 1 Year
                            2 months, 8 days ago

                            ...under 6 mil. Redmond is the obvious choice, but is there a reason no one is going Deulofeu?

                        11. migas2k7
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 6 Years
                          2 months, 8 days ago

                          who to replace son for?

                          Got salah (already with 3 liverpool), sterling, fraser, pogba

                          tempted for sane?

                        12. HD7
                          • 2 Years
                          2 months, 7 days ago

                          Sterling as C over Mane and Kun?

                          Start Gray over Jota?