Arsenal

FPL assets that could drop in price but impress in 2019/20

There are a number of Fantasy Premier League assets whose reduced prices in 2019/20 could help them provide great value.

We have had a look at how a few have performed in 2018/19 and why we feel that they might drop in cost over the summer.

Comparing their underlying data, we have worked out which of these could enjoy success in 2019/20 and reward those who took a risk on them.

Kevin de Bruyne

2018/19 price: £10.0m

De Bruyne’s season was plagued by injury

The 2018/19 really was a horrid one for Manchester City midfielder Kevin de Bruyne.

After coming back late from reaching the semi-finals of the World Cup with Belgium he was eased back into the side for Gameweek 1, playing 30 minutes as a substitute.

However, in the days that followed the opening of the season, de Bruyne sustained a nasty right knee ligament problem which kept him out until October.

He was able to make two substitute appearances in Gameweeks 9 and 10 but was stricken with a ligament issue to his left knee in a fourth-round EFL Cup win over Fulham.

Later in the campaign, de Bruyne had problems with his thigh and hamstring muscles.

That limited his FPL score for the season to just 59 points, by far his lowest ever while playing for Manchester City.

I think a price drop of at least £0.5m seems likely for the Belgian going into 2019/20, but I wouldn’t be too shocked to see him come in at £9.0m.

Either way, de Bruyne could prove to be the best value Manchester City attacker next season.

When he did get a run of games in the side this season he was his usual exceptional self.

Between Gameweeks 26 and 34, no player created more big chances than de Bruyne, who also averaged a shot every 28.8 minutes in that period.

Pascal Groß

2018/19 price: £7.0m

Groß’s second season in English football was not particularly enjoyable

The last 12 months have also been ones to forget for Brighton midfield Pascal Groß.

After securing 164 points in his debut Premier League campaign, at a great price of £5.5m, he followed that up with less than half his previous score.

The German midfielder, cursed by a price hike to £7.0m, managed a score of just 80 for 2018/19.

Admittedly, it was a season plagued by injury for Groß who, even when officially fit, often had his minutes managed by former Brighton manager Chris Hughton.

That’s why he managed just 1,864 minutes on the pitch this year, compared to 2,928 in 2017/18.

Hughton’s change in tactics also took their toll on Groß’s output.

In the Seagulls first Premier League campaign he largely deployed a 4-4-1-1 formation with Groß as the number 10 behind Glenn Murray, allowing for decent involvement in attacking returns.

However, in 2018/19, Hughton seemed to prefer 4-3-3, which resulted in a deeper role for the German when he was on the pitch.

Given the drop off in his points tally, I could see Groß coming down even as low as £6.0m for 2019/20, which could unlock his Fantasy potential once again.

New manager Graham Potter has traditionally played a 4-2-3-1 formation, which would open the door for Groß to return to the number 10 role he thrived in originally.

In the last four Gameweeks of 2018/19, despite the limitations on him, the Brighton midfield still managed to fashion 11 chances, more than Gylfi Sigurdsson, Paul Pogba, David Silva and Christian Eriksen.

Harry Kane

2018/19 price: £12.5m

2018/19 was a poor one for Kane by his own high standards

Long-time premium forward Harry Kane had a relatively poor 2018/19 season compared to his usual standards.

Since becoming the established number one centre-forward at Spurs in the 2015/16 campaign, he has scored at least 200 FPL points per season until this one.

In the last year, he registered just 160 points from 17 goals, his lowest strike tally since 2013/14.

Obviously, Kane’s campaign was dogged by injuries as he missed Gameweeks 23 to 26 and Gameweeks 34 to 38 with knocks.

But there was also a slow start for him after being rushed back into the Spurs starting line-up for Gameweek 1.

In the first five matches of the season, he secured just three attacking returns.

Furthermore, there were some disappointing outings where Kane was relied upon against lesser opposition and failed to deliver.

The Gameweek 8 narrow win over Cardiff was perhaps the best example as he won all captaincy polls, was the most signed player that week and brought in just one point.

There is certainly a case for the aficionados at Official FPL to drop Kane’s price for the 2019/20 season.

I can’t see the decrease being a huge one, probably no more than £0.5m, but it still feels like a possibility.

After all, he was the second-most expensive asset in 2018/19, but 25 players scored more points.

It could be an interesting development for 2019/20, as there is every chance Kane will return to his best.

There were certainly signs that he is capable of that if he can stay fit and fresh as a summer without major international tournaments beckons.

During 2018/19, the only forward (with 30 appearances or more) to boast better minutes per chance was Sergio Aguero.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan

2018/19 price: £7.0m

Mkhitaryan posted some decent underlying statistics towards the back-end of 2018/19

We expected big things from Henrikh Mkhitaryan in 2018/19 but they never quite materialised.

He may have started the first three Gameweeks in a row but what followed was a campaign characterised by rotation in and out of Unai Emery’s Arsenal side.

He started the campaign priced at £7.0m but finished it worth £6.6m having scored just 98 points.

There is a chance that the Armenian international could come in at £6.5m for 2019/20, which would potentially make him even better value.

If he can hold down his place in the Arsenal team, with Aaron Ramsey’s departure likely to reduce competition, then Mkhitaryan could replicate the promise he showed at the end of 2018/19, when he started six of the last seven matches.

In the last 13 Gameweeks of the season, only Ryan Fraser and de Bruyne created more big chances than him.

In fact, Mkhitaryan created the same number of big chances as Trent Alexander-Arnold (962) and Andrew Robertson (1,164) in fewer minutes, just 804 during that period.

70 Comments Post a Comment
  1. diesel001
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    What about Dele Alli?

    1. Geoff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Yeah that could be a good shout, he needs to step it up next season

    2. SAY MY NAME
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      and maybe Eriksen too, both failed to live up to their normal points return, certainly overpriced for last seasons points

    3. AnzhiBabakin (AKA: FC Akhma…
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Good shout. Son will go up by a million if not more, Alli should be no more than 8.5, but I'd like to see him at 8. Eriksen is a hard one, but 9 seems right to me.

  2. Skull And Gnomes 9
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 22 days ago

    Too much Brighton.

  3. Spacemonkey
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Sorry for posting it here, but does anyone know how long data about 2018/19 season will still be available on the fantasy.premierleague site? Thanks.

      1. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        Probably still be up a couple more weeks

      2. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        Download your data from here and save it for posterity...

        http://www.premierfantasytools.com

        1. Captain Kakaroto (I blame R…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 22 days ago

          Can you elaborate on this one? What data you can download from there?

          1. G-Whizz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 2 Years
            4 months, 22 days ago

            Season history, captain data, player data to download and pie charts and graphs you can screenshot too...

    • FPL_PEP_TALK
      • 1 Year
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Here is a list of "big" players who under performed imo (for whatever reason) in 2018/19.
      Wonder what price these will come in at for next season ... and more importantly will they be worth it even if they are cheaper ... discuss!

      DEF: Mina (EVE)
      MID: Ozil (ARS)
      MID: Sanchez (MAU)
      MID: Chamberlain (LIV)
      MID: Yarmolenko (WHM)
      MID: Mahrez (MCY)
      FWD: Lukaku (MAU)
      FWD: Jesus (MCY)

      1. SAY MY NAME
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        I think they should all be coming in cheaper, I guess the problem that fpl towers will have is that they could all then be undervalued if they start regularly and perform, particularly thinking Jesus

        1. FPL_PEP_TALK
          • 1 Year
          4 months, 22 days ago

          I guess fpl towers will have to balance poor current form with a proven track record in previous seasons because like you say players such as Jesus or Mahrez aren't bad players they are just victims of Pep rotation, they get a run in the team and they will probably score well. At their current price though they aren't attractive enough to even gamble on.

          As for some of the others do you think any are dead in terms of Fantasy appeal, no matter what the price is, and will never recover past glory (Sanchez, Ozil, Lukaku?)

          1. SAY MY NAME
            • 2 Years
            4 months, 22 days ago

            it sounds like man utd will be happy to let Lukaku go (to Inter Milan apparently), Sanchez would be hard to shift because of his wages - if he stays and starts and his attitude is right he could definitely do something, a lot of 'ifs' though, arsenal will likely want to sell Ozil but will find it hard to get a buyer so they may play him, but can't see him impressing unless he has some psychological coaching over the summer

            Mahrez and Jesus as you say, seem to be the ones with realistic upsides to having a punt on

            1. FPL_PEP_TALK
              • 1 Year
              4 months, 21 days ago

              I was impressed with Mahrez during certain parts of the season, especially at the end when he seemed to be in favour over Sane for the all important must win every game run in. If that was to continue I’d consider picking him.

      2. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        Lukaku certainly be on my radar if under 10 (unlikely mind)

        1. FPL_PEP_TALK
          • 1 Year
          4 months, 22 days ago

          I think it depends on how much Rashford is next time. Which is going to play as the main striker most of the time? If Lukaku is more expensive than Rashford and they share game time or Rashford is Oli's No.1 then Lukaku will also be dead as an FPL asset imo.

      3. AnzhiBabakin (AKA: FC Akhma…
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        All things considered, I think we'll see...
        Mina 5
        Sanchez 8.5 (should be 8)
        Ozil 8 (but should be 7.5)
        Chamberlain 6.5
        Yarmolenko 6.5
        Mahrez 8.5
        Lukaku 10
        Jesus 9.5

        Trouble is with a lot of these is that they are mostly pedigree players in that they have succeeded in the past.

        1. FPL_PEP_TALK
          • 1 Year
          4 months, 22 days ago

          Thanks for joining in this discussion. OK lets just say your prices prove to be correct.

          My next questions would be
          - which ones would you consider for your GW1 starting line up?
          - which could you see yourself considering later in the season if they got a run in the team?
          - which do you think, even with a price decrease, are a waste of time these days?

          1. AnzhiBabakin (AKA: FC Akhma…
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 22 days ago

            I wouldn't consider any from the start. None of them are nailed for one thing.

            1. Twitter: @Ze_Austin
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              4 months, 22 days ago

              Yarmo is nailed

              1. AnzhiBabakin (AKA: FC Akhma…
                • 3 Years
                4 months, 22 days ago

                Perhaps but he only had a few games to prove it and since then lanzini returned, plus Antonio and snoddy turned it around somewhat.

            2. FPL_PEP_TALK
              • 1 Year
              4 months, 22 days ago

              So for you those prices aren't even tempting. I don't disagree, none of them are nailed, so shouldn't fpl towers make them cheaper to bring them into the game, give you something to think about as a cheaper punt (4th/5th mid, 2nd/3rd striker) rather than having to commit budget to a risky player and then not be able to sign other better expensive players?

              1. AnzhiBabakin (AKA: FC Akhma…
                • 3 Years
                4 months, 22 days ago

                Of course - but they won't. Say aguero gets injured - at say 9.5 Jesus would be a great buy but still an ouitlay. But at 7m he still wouldn't tempt me unless that injury happened.

          2. SAY MY NAME
            • 2 Years
            4 months, 22 days ago

            The Ox at 6.5 would be interesting, but Pool places would be taken already

            If Sanchez or Mahrez looked to be regular starters in preseason then I'd at least consider them (esp if Sane is sold), but I'd probably still start with more secure picks and see how things went, easy to make one or two transfers if suddenly sanchez was starting and scoring for example

        2. Slouch87 Scott Talent
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 22 days ago

          This is nonsense speculation based on nothing whatsoever. Pointless.

          1. FPL_PEP_TALK
            • 1 Year
            4 months, 21 days ago

            Your comment is pointless ... why are you even looking at the site in the off season if all you’re going to contribute to the conversation is this.

      4. Skull And Gnomes 9
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        Ozil equates to Orville the Duck.

        Sorry Orville.

        1. SAY MY NAME
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 22 days ago

          Orville made some effort at least lol

    • Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      @Geoff i can do a Leicester transfer window HT in a few weeks once exams have cooled

      1. Geoff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 21 days ago

        Yeah absolutely

    • Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Poor Fulham getting jumped on by all the promoted teams this year for sending too much. They had to spend, with a squad of 13... sure, they didn't do it well tho. The promoted clubs are kidding themselves however if they think they can stay up without spending at least £30 million+ though. Aston Villa alone could spend that just on making loan signings permanent, then they need a CB, a winger, and a DM that's better than Hourihane and Whelan at least.

      1. Ghost Gooner
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        Fulham bought too late imo (maybe the new transfer deadline caught them out). Even though it will be hard all the promoted teams better have the bulk of their deals sorted by the start of preseason or history will repeat itself

    • CloudSky
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 22 days ago

      Apparently Sarri to Juventus is a done deal.

      Who gets Chelsea? Lamps?

      1. diesel001
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 22 days ago

        If Chelsea get a transfer ban then Lampard is ideal IMO. Gives him an excuse for a poor season and a chance to clear out the older players and bring through some young ones.

        It is time, IMO, for players like Willian, Pedro, Giroud, Higuain, Drinkwater, Morata, Moses and Bakayoko to be shown the door. Wouldn't mind seeing the back of Jorgino either, but it is unlikely given how much he cost. Lampard could bring in CHO, RLC, Pulisic, Batshuayi, Zouma and Abraham.

        I would like to see Chelsea play something like:

        Kepa
        Azpi Rudiger Zouma Emerson
        Kante RLC Luiz
        Pulisic Batshuayi CHO

        1. Slouch87 Scott Talent
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 22 days ago

          Lampard would be the worst possible appointment . No experience , scraped into the play offs with a team reliant on a couple of talented loan signings from the PL and a very poor defence. I don't think that you can have watched Derby very much this last season.

          1. diesel001
            • 2 Years
            4 months, 22 days ago

            I watched Derby. I thought he did well with a poor squad. Yes, players like Mount, Wilson, Marriott, Tomori made a big difference, but that is also true of Villa IMO (look at Mings, Tuanzebe, El-Ghazi, Abraham) who had a better squad. Perhaps Bielsa did the best job out of those in the Championship as Leeds barely signed anyone and he almost got to the PL with a squad that was mid-table the season before. I would argue that teams such as Bristol City, Middlesbrough, Swansea and Stoke had more experienced and better squads, but got beaten by Lampard's Derby.

            What I liked about Lampard was he (i) imposed his style of football and (ii) brought through young players Yes, atAt times Derby looked out of ideas offensively, but they are a relatively young team and don't have the quality of players to play like Wolves did when Wolves were in the Championship.

            Chelsea are about to lose their best player (and that player has carried the team this season) and be subject to a transfer ban. This is the ideal time to bring in a manger with the pressure off (not his fault he has average players and there is a transfer ban), who knows and loves the club and has shown a propensity to give youth a chance.

            1. Slouch87 Scott Talent
              • 4 Years
              4 months, 22 days ago

              I hear what you are saying but very rarely do these kind of appointments work out. Giving Lampard the job at this point in time would be disastrous for Chelsea IMO. He just hasn't got the experience and it would just be a nostalgic pick.

      2. MeatPieSausageRoll
          4 months, 22 days ago

          Hopefully Ole lol

          Then we take Poch haha

          1. Slouch87 Scott Talent
            • 4 Years
            4 months, 22 days ago

            Sometimes I wish that I was back in the freezer.

            1. MeatPieSausageRoll
                4 months, 22 days ago

                If your happy with top 4 being a trophy bro your supporting the wrong team

                1. MeatPieSausageRoll
                    4 months, 22 days ago

                    We are Utd

                    1. Depldax
                      • 1 Year
                      4 months, 22 days ago

                      If Bielsa did a great job how about Farke?

                      1. MeatPieSausageRoll
                          4 months, 22 days ago

                          Never heard of him bro but hes got to be better than ole

                      2. Slouch87 Scott Talent
                        • 4 Years
                        4 months, 22 days ago

                        You are Poseidon.

                        1. MeatPieSausageRoll
                            4 months, 22 days ago

                            I think i speak for all of us when i say i wish i was

                            1. Slouch87 Scott Talent
                              • 4 Years
                              4 months, 22 days ago

                              Haha . Blast from the past.

              • Slouch87 Scott Talent
                • 4 Years
                4 months, 22 days ago

                Out of the freezer . Thanks.

              • stat
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                4 months, 22 days ago

                I have been looking at stats from dream teams since FPL began in 02/03 until the end of this season.
                Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/StatOnScout/status/1134566870038831104
                All dream teams: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D77VA7cXYAEiN1J.png:large (Special thanks to FPLDiscovery for all the dream teams until 13/14)

                A selection of interesting findings:

                - The highest scoring defender, midfielder and striker in any FPL season all played for Liverpool (Robbo 18/19, Salah 17/18, Suarez 13/14).

                - Meanwhile, the highest scoring goalkeeper was Friedel (Blackburn) in the first season of FPL (02/03) with 187 pts.

                - Liverpool also hold the record for most players from a single team in a season's dream team (6 in 18/19).

                - The highest scoring dream team was this season's (18/19), with 2332 pts.

                - The lowest scoring dream was the one in 10/11 with 1947, which also had the lowest top scoring player (Nani with 198 pts).

                - The top 3 highest scoring dream teams have been the 3 most recent dream teams.

                - The highest scoring player [per season] has been a mid on 11/17 occassions and a forward on the other 6. In the last 5 seasons, they have always been a midfielder (Salah, Salah, Sanchez, Mahrez, Hazard), but in the three seasons before it was a forward (Suarez, RvP, RvP).

                - Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd (the original "Big Four") are the only teams to have had a player be the top scoring FPL player more than once. Arsenal had Henry (3 times), Chelsea had Lampard (4 times), Liverpool had Salah (2 times) and Man Utd had Ronaldo (2 times).

                - RvP is the only player to have been the highest scoring FPL player for different teams (Arsenal and Man Utd, in consecutive seasons).

                - Suarez averaged 8.939 points per game in 13/14. That's more than Salah's record-breaking season (i.e. most points in FPL) in 17/18 (8.417 pts).

                - Lampard is the player with the most appearances in dream teams (7). Terry is close behind with 6, while Gerrard follows with 5. Hazard, Henry, Kane and Rooney are on 4.

                - Chelsea players have had the most appearances in dream teams (39). In second place are Man Utd with 26, closely followed by Liverpool with 25. Arsenal follow with 22.

                - Man Utd hold the record for most consecutive seasons in the dream team - 12 seasons (between 02/03 and 13/14).

                - Chelsea hold the record for most seasons with at least one player in the dream team, with 14 out of a possible 17 seasons. Arsenal, Liverpool and Man Utd share 2nd place with 13.

                1. Saint Steve-O (@EliteFPL)
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  4 months, 21 days ago

                  When I read things like this there's always one stat that sticks out, where I think "HAA, random" and it's Friedel being highest scoring GK in very first season

              • Niho992
                • 1 Year
                4 months, 22 days ago

                Liverpool fans are we nervous ?

                1. Slouch87 Scott Talent
                  • 4 Years
                  4 months, 22 days ago

                  Yes if you own an empty property in Liverpool tomorrow night.

                2. The One True Marvin
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  4 months, 22 days ago

                  Very. Losing a final is crushing. Losing one to Tottenham would be impossible to live with.

                  1. Niho992
                    • 1 Year
                    4 months, 22 days ago

                    agree

                3. Optimus.
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  4 months, 22 days ago

                  Obviously

                4. Peter Ouch
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 1 Year
                  4 months, 21 days ago

                  Nah, we are liverpool

              • hysteria
                • 2 Years
                4 months, 21 days ago

                david is still so proud he didn't transfer in kane in gw 8 ...lol

              • Vitamin C
                • 5 Years
                4 months, 21 days ago

                Let's pray for a London Derby Super Cup in Istanbul.

                1. Amey
                  • 1 Year
                  4 months, 21 days ago

                  Amen

                2. Kopkloppers
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  4 months, 21 days ago

                  Even I want Pool to win.
                  Fantastic side, great manager, great spirit.

                3. Jarvish Scott Talent
                  • 4 Years
                  4 months, 21 days ago

                  Get the Easyjet flight booked now

              • Kopkloppers
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                4 months, 21 days ago

                Combined 17
                Lloris
                Robertson Virgil Alders TAA
                Wijnaldum Erik Ali
                Mane Son Salah
                Alisson Milner Hendo Gomez Fabinho Firmino

                1. _sidney_will
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  4 months, 21 days ago

                  Alli shouldn’t be in the side imo, been bang average last 2 seasons, one of Milner, Fabinho or Henderson instead

                2. Vitamin C
                  • 5 Years
                  4 months, 21 days ago

                  Donde esta el mejor de todos,Moussa Sissoko?

                3. Flaming Flamingo
                  • 3 Years
                  4 months, 21 days ago

                  Alisson
                  TAA VVD Vertonghen Robertson
                  Fabinho
                  Eriksen Alli
                  Salah Firmino Mane

                  Doesn't bode well for my hopes of a Tottenham win I guess.

                4. Max City
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  4 months, 21 days ago

                  So Lloris is better than Alisson?

              • Max City
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                4 months, 21 days ago

                Why it is written as ARSENAL?