Pro Pundits - Az

The dangers of taking hits to chase points in FPL

“It is by testing our ideas, subjecting them to failure, that we set the stage for growth.” – Matthew Syed, Black Box Thinking

Another Gameweek passes in the Fantasy Premier League, and it’s another hit for my team.

Greyhead’s constant nods to my transfer dealings in his ‘Great and the Good‘ series keeps reminding me of my aggressive approach to this season.

Using this article as a chance to reflect on my hits, it’s quite grim reading on first glance.

A -4 to bring in Dani Ceballos (£5.3m) in Gameweek 4 was a disaster. My second hit of the season involved me chasing the points of Kevin de Bruyne (£10.2m) who was promptly benched and scored 1 point.

I managed to resist the urge for further hits until Gameweek 10, where I again took a hit to dump the underperforming Riyad Mahrez (£8.3m) for KDB… who managed just a single assist. 

In Gameweek 11, another hit, as Mason Mount (£6.8m) left my team for Callum Hudson-Odoi (£5.7m), to fund a move for Jamie Vardy (£9.7m).

My most recent hit involved taking out Ricardo Pereira (£6.4m) and Hudson-Odoi for Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.0m) and James Maddison (£7.6m). It’s quite painful to see just how much the carousel has been spinning.

Hudson-Odoi has been one of a few ill-fated punts in my team this season

What’s interesting (well for me anyway!) is how I’ve been going about making the hits.

My latest was the third time I’ve made a so-called ‘sideways’ move.

To fund de Bruyne initially, I downgraded Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m) for fellow Liverpool player Joel Matip (£5.3m). After selling him for an ill-fated fling with Mahrez, I lost Mount for teammate Hudson-Odoi.

To then upgrade Hudson-Odoi, I lost Pereira for Söyüncü.  

To finally board the Vardy party, I even managed to swap Nicolas Otamendi (£5.2m), a non-playing defender, for Martin Kelly (£4.1m)… another non-playing defender.

On the whole, I think these were the right moves for my team, but in some ways, these hits felt like trading two players for one.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all but my latest hit have got me big fat red arrows.

Looking back on these moves, it’s also made me realise that I’ve been putting too much money in defence this season.

Out of the three hits I’ve just mentioned, they all involved downgrading a defender. This is despite a normal strategy of mine being to avoid paying a premium price for defenders unless they are playing at Wing Back or have set pieces in their locker.

Alonso, when playing regularly, is a premium option I am willing to pay for

I’ve never been afraid of making a hit, and I recently watched the brilliant Meet the Manager video with Joe and Mark, where Mark talks about his own strategy.

His fear of being £0.1m or £0.2m off transfers further down the line fuels his aggression, making him more likely to take hits, and also make earlier transfers.

My most recent hit didn’t pay off this week but it’s already helped improve my team value.

Hudson-Odoi has dropped twice, while both Söyüncü and Maddison have gone up £0.2m each.

That’s a massive swing – and my team is in better shape for it.

Just because people are saying I’m taking too many hits doesn’t mean I’m likely to slow down any time soon…!

And in true Black Box style, my hits are often correcting my mistakes, such as bringing in Hudson-Odoi, who I do feel I was a little unlucky with, damn you Christian Pulisic!

Pulisic’s burst into the team has closed down Hudson-Odoi as an option

In fact, this season would probably be even worse for me if I hadn’t set about correcting mistakes in my own team.

Losing de Bruyne on the Wildcard for Mahrez was rash. It cost me four points to bring him back, but he delivered this week with a goal against Chelsea.

Not leaving an extra £0.1m in the bank for Vardy was idiotic, but my -4 to bring him in and ship Callum Wilson (£7.7m) a few weeks ago has more than paid for itself.

I have no doubt that the upgrade of Hudson-Odoi to Maddison will reap rewards soon too. He is my boy after all – despite his questionable taste in backpacks.

As people around me are getting itchy feet with players like Anthony Martial (£7.8m), Mount, and Raheem Sterling (£12.0m) – I feel like I may finally be in a pretty strong position as we head into Christmas.

I’m banking the transfer this week, and then, barring a change in Arsenal manager or a monster haul, I’ll be looking at getting rid of Pierre- Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) and FINALLY bringing in the man they call Lord John Lundstram (£4.9m).

Yes, you read that right. I’m planning on losing last years golden boot winner to fund a move for a £4.0m defender… what a season this is.

So, while I do not have any hits planned in the near future, it seems inevitable that I will succumb to my cravings. When I do, let’s hope it comes from a position of strength, rather than to correct yet another mistake.

My Gameweek 14 bus team

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841 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Big Ping
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    2fts.

    Sterling + James to Son + Alli

    Inspired transfers or a little too bold I wonder...

    1. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      A bit too bold IMO.

    2. Bodie
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Two spurs mid is too much for me I’ve got son and looking to get in Kane.... so son if you already have kdb as cover for city!

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      I think Jose will want to turn Spurs into a 2-0 side rather than winning games 3/4-2. Think one Spurs is enough.

      1. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        I agree - which is why I'm increasingly interested in Alli and one from Aurier/Gaz. Feels like Alli is the main beneficiary from the bits I've seen.

    4. Big Ping
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Thanks all, I think Spurs double could be overkill, 3.5 goals per game certainly isnt sustainable! Perhaps just Sterling to Son for now... but Alli is tempting me!

    5. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Max one Spurs mid/attacker only for me. Combining with def/gk not that bold. I still see Aurier as a good option if considering him or Soy in same price category.

  2. kysersosa
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    What to do....

    2.5 ITB and 2 FT

    Pope
    Soy, Tomori, TAA
    (M)ane Mads Mount* KDB
    Tammy, Vardy, Jimenez

    Button, Lord, Cantwell, Diop*

    Currently on Mount and Diop to Pulisic and Cahill. I could afford Doherty or PVA, but that's a benching headache that's not worth having.

    6 points ahead in my ML for the month and my closest rival has 8 players the same. I could do Button to Henderson and Diop to Cahill and play my bench boost. However, I feel this would be a waste.

    1. Big Ping
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Maybe just Button to Henderson and carry a free. Still feel Mount is worth holding.

      1. kysersosa
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        I’m torn tbh. After last GW, I wasn’t concerned about him not starting (I expect him to be back in the starting 11 this week). I was just looking at his stats over the last 4 games and Pulisic simple eclipses him. Anything other than faith makes you think he’ll do well?

    2. ResultatFar
      • 1 Year
      4 months, 8 days ago

      Don't bench boost. I would do Pope to Henderson instead and then hold 1 ft for next week where you can change your team around

      1. kysersosa
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        You’d play Henderson (wolves away) over pope (CP at home) this week? Was planning that transfer for next week.

        1. ResultatFar
          • 1 Year
          4 months, 8 days ago

          To be honest, yes. I really like the look of SHU's defense

  3. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 months, 8 days ago

    couple of quick questions:

    1) KDB > Son (-4)?
    2) Sterling + Martial + Rashford >> Mane + Son + Ings?...whilst united have a good fixture, they have tough fixtures coming up
    3) Mount + Rashford >> Son + Ings worth it?

    1. Soonmixdin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 8 days ago

      1) I wouldn't if KdB is your only City cover
      2) This
      3) M&R combined would probably get you a higher points total in the long run

      1. Soonmixdin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        I have to admit I am also torn about KdB, he is the only City cover I have left but considering the same move!

  4. Gold Coast
      4 months, 8 days ago

      GTG?

      Schmeichel
      TAA Lundstram Chilwell Robertson
      McGinn KDB Mount Mane
      Abraham Vardy

      McGovern Jiménez Rico Saka

      1. Triggy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        I'd probably play Jimenez over Lundstram or McGinn but it's a close one of those two which I'd drop.

        1. kysersosa
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          I’d drop McGinn. But I’m playing Jimenez over Lundstram

          1. Gold Coast
              4 months, 8 days ago

              Thanks both. Tough call

      2. Zenith UK
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Need some honest thoughts here please;

        VVD, Lindelof, Auba > TAA, Robbo & Rashford? (-8)

        1. ResultatFar
          • 1 Year
          4 months, 8 days ago

          All good transfers, but don't like it for a -8 when Auba has Norwich coming up

          1. Zenith UK
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            This is my concern but I'm trying to see it as 3v3 points wise including the minus eight I think the players I'm bringing in will still outscore.

            I actually want Alli as well but can't squeeze him in without ditching KDB which is a -12 then

          2. Zenith UK
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            Alternatively I can do;

            VVD, Lindelof & KDB > TAA, Robbo & Moura (-8)

            This leaves me with;

            Pope
            TAA, Robbo, Soy, Lund
            Mane, Moura, Tielemans
            Auba, Vardy, Tammy

            Button, Tomori, Cantwell, Saka

            1. kysersosa
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              4 months, 8 days ago

              I’d play VVD, Soy and Tomori this week. That’s not a bad back line with a good chance of CS for each

      3. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Riding a free tranny.

        1. Berbinho's Forehead
          • 9 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          😆

      4. Waynoo
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Aub to Kane is tempting me

        1. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
          • 1 Year
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Auba drop is ridic.

          Will defo punish sellers.

        2. Fernando Torres
          • 8 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Yep would do that

      5. balint84
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        If you had Salah, would you captained him?

        1. Christina.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          no way

        2. james 101
          • 8 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Nah

          I have mane and am considering him, but I’ll prob just go with VARdy.

          1. Nomar
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            I'm going with Vardy against that Everton team.

        3. Triggy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          I'd put Pulisic, Mane, Abraham and Vardy (in that order) as captain before Salah. I think he'll be a fine choice as captain, there are just others who are better this week.

          1. james 101
            • 8 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            I have those four and I see the case for each

            But reckon v is the way to go

        4. andy85wsm
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 9 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          If I was very confident he would start and didn't own Mane I'd certainly think about it

          1. BobbyDoesNotLook
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            95 sure he starts. Still prefer Mane with current form. I have both abd currently Mane C, Tammy vc

        5. el polako
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          No Chelsea or Leicester asset this week for captaincy.

      6. OleGGMU
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 8 days ago

        G2G?
        Pope
        Chil, Lund, TAA, Aurier
        Son (c) , Mane, KDB
        Vardy, Jimi, Abra
        Bench : Button, Tiel, McGinn, Rico

        Advice would be much appreciated

        1. Coys96
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Play Tiel over Lund

          1. OleGGMU
            • 1 Year
            4 months, 8 days ago

            Lund gives me the chills as far as dropping him, I usually dont play a def if I have an attacker he is facing but Lord Lund defies logic this season. I understand the Tielemans over lund thought, but aurier to Tielemans maybe?

            Suggestions on who to sack McGinn for? looking for cheaper here

      7. Philip Jones's Diary
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Would I be foolish to do this:
        Auba + McGinn > Jesus + Pulisic

        1. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
          • 1 Year
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Good moves if price drop on Auba.

          1. Philip Jones's Diary
            • 3 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            Even for a -4 ?

      8. el polako
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Looking at this GW fixtures and our squads packed with Pool, Leicester & Chelsea players this bound to be... very low scoring week.

        Just another cruel play by FPL gods.

        1. james 101
          • 8 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          If only life was that simple

      9. Lindelol
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Play one
        1. Lordstram
        2. Tomori

        1. Triggy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          I would probably just go with Tomori as I'm not sure the defensive returns on Lundstram will be great this week but it's very close.

        2. Coys96
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Tomori

        3. BobbyDoesNotLook
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Always Lund

      10. Triggy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Does anyone know when the draw for the FFS Cup will be made?

        Thanks 🙂

      11. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Norwich
        Brighton
        West Hammers

        On the bounce.

        1. Nomar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Arsenal?

          1. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
            • 1 Year
            4 months, 8 days ago

            Auba or Kane.

      12. Miniboss
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Hei!

        Who to bench?
        A) Tomori
        B) Lunstrom
        C) some other dude

        Pope
        TAA Söyuncu Tomori
        KdB Mane(C) Maddison Martial
        Abraham Vardy Jimenez

        Button Lundstrom Rico Dendocker

        1. Coys96
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Probs Lund, just

      13. Sadio
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        If you look at the last 3 Matches at Anfield, you wouldn't have bet on Trent to have hauled against Leicester, Tottenham or City. You have to go all the way back to GW5 when they played Newcastle, where he should have comfortably had 10+ points. Shot cleared off the line, 7 chances created and a lucky goal conceded in the first 5 minutes of the game. An 18 point day was not far away at all.

        Join me this week against Brighton:

        TAA (C)

        1. Coys96
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Maybe, but I prefer Mane Vardy or Son (C)

      14. simong1
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Would you start Mount (WHU) or Lundstram (wol) this week?

        1. Fernando Torres
          • 8 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          MM

      15. Arsenal97
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Which transfert should i make this gw :
        Mount => Pulisic
        Chambers => Aurier

        1. Coys96
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          1

      16. Sarri-ball
        • 10 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        crazy to go no city for next 4 if means son and double pool defence

        1. Coys96
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Not crazy imo

        2. el polako
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Not crazy at all, considering how many other players is in form.

          No Kun and they hardly setting world on fire, I got only KDB as he is constantly returning and I got him from GW1

          1. el polako
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            *since GW 1.
            - fecking polak

          2. Sarri-ball
            • 10 Years
            4 months, 8 days ago

            yeah plan is sterling to son

            can either do
            pulisic to kdb or use money get taa (double up with robbo next 4)

        3. james 101
          • 8 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Nope. I posted some numbers on this previously. City are worth avoiding just now.

      17. Just Kreuzing
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Went early on Digne to Chilwell as I had 2fts. But now kinda regret it as it leaves me no cash.
        Should have gone Soyuncu and used $ for Mount upgrade to Zaha or Pulisic.
        Would I be mad to now go reverse and make those trades for -4

        1. Sarri-ball
          • 10 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          maybe a mistake in hignsight but for me done now look forward dont switch back.

        2. el polako
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Mount to Zaha is downgrade.

        3. Sarri-ball
          • 10 Years
          4 months, 8 days ago

          for me moumt starts weekend.

          dont need jorginho/kovavic/kante home westham

      18. Totti
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        guys
        who do u rather ?

        mcginn to:

        A) son
        B) maddison ( already a vardy owner )

        option B will lead me to make next gameweek mount-> pulisic

        1. Just Kreuzing
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Maddison... great fixtures

      19. Pia06rc
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Anyone doubling up on Salah and Mane for next few?

      20. CC22
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Currently got:

        Pope, Button
        TAA, Soyuncu, Lundstram, Tomori, Mings
        Sterling, KDB, Maddison, Mount, Cantwell
        Vardy, Jimenez, Abraham

        2 FT and 2.5m in the bank.

        Going to do Sterling -> Mane/Salah as one of the transfers, but then feel like I need to get a Spurs player in given their current form. As such, leaning towards:

        a) Cantwell, Jimenez -> Son, Greenwood (-4)
        b) Tomori, Mount -> Son, Williams (-4)
        c) Save the transfer

        1. Just Kreuzing
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          4 months, 8 days ago

          Save

      21. Purse83
        • 1 Year
        4 months, 8 days ago

        Is it insane to consider the following over Mount -> Pulisic (for free) for a -4 for the following:

        1) TAA and Martial -> Aurier and Salah

        or

        2) Mount and Martial -> Hayden and Salah in a 433 (Soy to come off the bench)

        Team currently is:

        Pope Button
        TAA Soy Tomori Lund Montoya
        Mane Martial Son Mount Cantwell
        Vardy Tammy Jimi

      22. RED_ARMY
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        a) Son + Mount + Jimmy
        b) Pulisic + McGinn + Kane

      23. Arsenal97
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 8 days ago

        2.9£ ITB suggestions ?

        Pope McGovern
        TAA Chillwel Lundstram Rico Chambers
        KDB Son Mane Mount Cantwell
        Abraham Vardy Ayew

        Thinking :
        1) Chambers => Aurier
        2) Mount => Pulisic
        3) pope => Schmichel