Pro Pundits - Az

The dangers of taking hits to chase points in FPL

“It is by testing our ideas, subjecting them to failure, that we set the stage for growth.” – Matthew Syed, Black Box Thinking

Another Gameweek passes in the Fantasy Premier League, and it’s another hit for my team.

Greyhead’s constant nods to my transfer dealings in his ‘Great and the Good‘ series keeps reminding me of my aggressive approach to this season.

Using this article as a chance to reflect on my hits, it’s quite grim reading on first glance.

A -4 to bring in Dani Ceballos (£5.3m) in Gameweek 4 was a disaster. My second hit of the season involved me chasing the points of Kevin de Bruyne (£10.2m) who was promptly benched and scored 1 point.

I managed to resist the urge for further hits until Gameweek 10, where I again took a hit to dump the underperforming Riyad Mahrez (£8.3m) for KDB… who managed just a single assist. 

In Gameweek 11, another hit, as Mason Mount (£6.8m) left my team for Callum Hudson-Odoi (£5.7m), to fund a move for Jamie Vardy (£9.7m).

My most recent hit involved taking out Ricardo Pereira (£6.4m) and Hudson-Odoi for Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.0m) and James Maddison (£7.6m). It’s quite painful to see just how much the carousel has been spinning.

Hudson-Odoi has been one of a few ill-fated punts in my team this season

What’s interesting (well for me anyway!) is how I’ve been going about making the hits.

My latest was the third time I’ve made a so-called ‘sideways’ move.

To fund de Bruyne initially, I downgraded Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m) for fellow Liverpool player Joel Matip (£5.3m). After selling him for an ill-fated fling with Mahrez, I lost Mount for teammate Hudson-Odoi.

To then upgrade Hudson-Odoi, I lost Pereira for Söyüncü.  

To finally board the Vardy party, I even managed to swap Nicolas Otamendi (£5.2m), a non-playing defender, for Martin Kelly (£4.1m)… another non-playing defender.

On the whole, I think these were the right moves for my team, but in some ways, these hits felt like trading two players for one.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that all but my latest hit have got me big fat red arrows.

Looking back on these moves, it’s also made me realise that I’ve been putting too much money in defence this season.

Out of the three hits I’ve just mentioned, they all involved downgrading a defender. This is despite a normal strategy of mine being to avoid paying a premium price for defenders unless they are playing at Wing Back or have set pieces in their locker.

Alonso, when playing regularly, is a premium option I am willing to pay for

I’ve never been afraid of making a hit, and I recently watched the brilliant Meet the Manager video with Joe and Mark, where Mark talks about his own strategy.

His fear of being £0.1m or £0.2m off transfers further down the line fuels his aggression, making him more likely to take hits, and also make earlier transfers.

My most recent hit didn’t pay off this week but it’s already helped improve my team value.

Hudson-Odoi has dropped twice, while both Söyüncü and Maddison have gone up £0.2m each.

That’s a massive swing – and my team is in better shape for it.

Just because people are saying I’m taking too many hits doesn’t mean I’m likely to slow down any time soon…!

And in true Black Box style, my hits are often correcting my mistakes, such as bringing in Hudson-Odoi, who I do feel I was a little unlucky with, damn you Christian Pulisic!

Pulisic’s burst into the team has closed down Hudson-Odoi as an option

In fact, this season would probably be even worse for me if I hadn’t set about correcting mistakes in my own team.

Losing de Bruyne on the Wildcard for Mahrez was rash. It cost me four points to bring him back, but he delivered this week with a goal against Chelsea.

Not leaving an extra £0.1m in the bank for Vardy was idiotic, but my -4 to bring him in and ship Callum Wilson (£7.7m) a few weeks ago has more than paid for itself.

I have no doubt that the upgrade of Hudson-Odoi to Maddison will reap rewards soon too. He is my boy after all – despite his questionable taste in backpacks.

As people around me are getting itchy feet with players like Anthony Martial (£7.8m), Mount, and Raheem Sterling (£12.0m) – I feel like I may finally be in a pretty strong position as we head into Christmas.

I’m banking the transfer this week, and then, barring a change in Arsenal manager or a monster haul, I’ll be looking at getting rid of Pierre- Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) and FINALLY bringing in the man they call Lord John Lundstram (£4.9m).

Yes, you read that right. I’m planning on losing last years golden boot winner to fund a move for a £4.0m defender… what a season this is.

So, while I do not have any hits planned in the near future, it seems inevitable that I will succumb to my cravings. When I do, let’s hope it comes from a position of strength, rather than to correct yet another mistake.

My Gameweek 14 bus team

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841 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Big Ping
    • 1 Year
    16 days, 19 mins ago

    2fts.

    Sterling + James to Son + Alli

    Inspired transfers or a little too bold I wonder...

    1. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      16 days, 16 mins ago

      A bit too bold IMO.

    2. Bodie
      • 4 Years
      16 days, 11 mins ago

      Two spurs mid is too much for me I’ve got son and looking to get in Kane.... so son if you already have kdb as cover for city!

    3. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      16 days, 9 mins ago

      I think Jose will want to turn Spurs into a 2-0 side rather than winning games 3/4-2. Think one Spurs is enough.

      1. SkekTek (AKA: AnzhiBabakin)
        • 4 Years
        15 days, 23 hours ago

        I agree - which is why I'm increasingly interested in Alli and one from Aurier/Gaz. Feels like Alli is the main beneficiary from the bits I've seen.

    4. Big Ping
      • 1 Year
      15 days, 22 hours ago

      Thanks all, I think Spurs double could be overkill, 3.5 goals per game certainly isnt sustainable! Perhaps just Sterling to Son for now... but Alli is tempting me!

    5. BobbyDoesNotLook
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      15 days, 17 hours ago

      Max one Spurs mid/attacker only for me. Combining with def/gk not that bold. I still see Aurier as a good option if considering him or Soy in same price category.

  2. kysersosa
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    16 days, 16 mins ago

    What to do....

    2.5 ITB and 2 FT

    Pope
    Soy, Tomori, TAA
    (M)ane Mads Mount* KDB
    Tammy, Vardy, Jimenez

    Button, Lord, Cantwell, Diop*

    Currently on Mount and Diop to Pulisic and Cahill. I could afford Doherty or PVA, but that's a benching headache that's not worth having.

    6 points ahead in my ML for the month and my closest rival has 8 players the same. I could do Button to Henderson and Diop to Cahill and play my bench boost. However, I feel this would be a waste.

    1. Big Ping
      • 1 Year
      16 days, 13 mins ago

      Maybe just Button to Henderson and carry a free. Still feel Mount is worth holding.

      1. kysersosa
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        15 days, 23 hours ago

        I’m torn tbh. After last GW, I wasn’t concerned about him not starting (I expect him to be back in the starting 11 this week). I was just looking at his stats over the last 4 games and Pulisic simple eclipses him. Anything other than faith makes you think he’ll do well?

    2. ResultatFar
      • 1 Year
      16 days, 5 mins ago

      Don't bench boost. I would do Pope to Henderson instead and then hold 1 ft for next week where you can change your team around

      1. kysersosa
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        15 days, 23 hours ago

        You’d play Henderson (wolves away) over pope (CP at home) this week? Was planning that transfer for next week.

        1. ResultatFar
          • 1 Year
          15 days, 23 hours ago

          To be honest, yes. I really like the look of SHU's defense

  3. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    16 days, 10 mins ago

    couple of quick questions:

    1) KDB > Son (-4)?
    2) Sterling + Martial + Rashford >> Mane + Son + Ings?...whilst united have a good fixture, they have tough fixtures coming up
    3) Mount + Rashford >> Son + Ings worth it?

    1. Soonmixdin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      15 days, 21 hours ago

      1) I wouldn't if KdB is your only City cover
      2) This
      3) M&R combined would probably get you a higher points total in the long run

      1. Soonmixdin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        15 days, 21 hours ago

        I have to admit I am also torn about KdB, he is the only City cover I have left but considering the same move!

  4. Gold Coast
      16 days, 10 mins ago

      GTG?

      Schmeichel
      TAA Lundstram Chilwell Robertson
      McGinn KDB Mount Mane
      Abraham Vardy

      McGovern Jiménez Rico Saka

      1. Triggy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        15 days, 23 hours ago

        I'd probably play Jimenez over Lundstram or McGinn but it's a close one of those two which I'd drop.

        1. kysersosa
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          15 days, 23 hours ago

          I’d drop McGinn. But I’m playing Jimenez over Lundstram

          1. Gold Coast
              15 days, 19 hours ago

              Thanks both. Tough call

      2. Zenith UK
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        16 days, 10 mins ago

        Need some honest thoughts here please;

        VVD, Lindelof, Auba > TAA, Robbo & Rashford? (-8)

        1. ResultatFar
          • 1 Year
          16 days, 7 mins ago

          All good transfers, but don't like it for a -8 when Auba has Norwich coming up

          1. Zenith UK
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            16 days ago

            This is my concern but I'm trying to see it as 3v3 points wise including the minus eight I think the players I'm bringing in will still outscore.

            I actually want Alli as well but can't squeeze him in without ditching KDB which is a -12 then

          2. Zenith UK
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Alternatively I can do;

            VVD, Lindelof & KDB > TAA, Robbo & Moura (-8)

            This leaves me with;

            Pope
            TAA, Robbo, Soy, Lund
            Mane, Moura, Tielemans
            Auba, Vardy, Tammy

            Button, Tomori, Cantwell, Saka

            1. kysersosa
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              I’d play VVD, Soy and Tomori this week. That’s not a bad back line with a good chance of CS for each

      3. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
        • 1 Year
        16 days, 10 mins ago

        Riding a free tranny.

        1. Berbinho's Forehead
          • 9 Years
          16 days, 8 mins ago

          😆

      4. Waynoo
        • 6 Years
        16 days, 7 mins ago

        Aub to Kane is tempting me

        1. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
          • 1 Year
          16 days, 5 mins ago

          Auba drop is ridic.

          Will defo punish sellers.

        2. Fernando Torres
          • 8 Years
          16 days, 5 mins ago

          Yep would do that

      5. balint84
        • 3 Years
        16 days, 2 mins ago

        If you had Salah, would you captained him?

        1. Christina.
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          16 days, 1 min ago

          no way

        2. james 101
          • 7 Years
          15 days, 23 hours ago

          Nah

          I have mane and am considering him, but I’ll prob just go with VARdy.

          1. Nomar
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            I'm going with Vardy against that Everton team.

        3. Triggy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          15 days, 23 hours ago

          I'd put Pulisic, Mane, Abraham and Vardy (in that order) as captain before Salah. I think he'll be a fine choice as captain, there are just others who are better this week.

          1. james 101
            • 7 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            I have those four and I see the case for each

            But reckon v is the way to go

        4. andy85wsm
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 9 Years
          15 days, 23 hours ago

          If I was very confident he would start and didn't own Mane I'd certainly think about it

          1. BobbyDoesNotLook
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            15 days, 17 hours ago

            95 sure he starts. Still prefer Mane with current form. I have both abd currently Mane C, Tammy vc

        5. el polako
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          15 days, 23 hours ago

          No Chelsea or Leicester asset this week for captaincy.

      6. OleGGMU
          16 days, 1 min ago

          G2G?
          Pope
          Chil, Lund, TAA, Aurier
          Son (c) , Mane, KDB
          Vardy, Jimi, Abra
          Bench : Button, Tiel, McGinn, Rico

          Advice would be much appreciated

          1. Coys96
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Play Tiel over Lund

            1. OleGGMU
                15 days, 22 hours ago

                Lund gives me the chills as far as dropping him, I usually dont play a def if I have an attacker he is facing but Lord Lund defies logic this season. I understand the Tielemans over lund thought, but aurier to Tielemans maybe?

                Suggestions on who to sack McGinn for? looking for cheaper here

          2. Philip Jones's Diary
            • 3 Years
            16 days, 1 min ago

            Would I be foolish to do this:
            Auba + McGinn > Jesus + Pulisic

            1. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
              • 1 Year
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              Good moves if price drop on Auba.

              1. Philip Jones's Diary
                • 3 Years
                15 days, 22 hours ago

                Even for a -4 ?

          3. el polako
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            16 days ago

            Looking at this GW fixtures and our squads packed with Pool, Leicester & Chelsea players this bound to be... very low scoring week.

            Just another cruel play by FPL gods.

            1. james 101
              • 7 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              If only life was that simple

          4. Lindelol
            • 1 Year
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Play one
            1. Lordstram
            2. Tomori

            1. Triggy
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              I would probably just go with Tomori as I'm not sure the defensive returns on Lundstram will be great this week but it's very close.

            2. Coys96
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              Tomori

            3. BobbyDoesNotLook
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              15 days, 17 hours ago

              Always Lund

          5. Triggy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Does anyone know when the draw for the FFS Cup will be made?

            Thanks 🙂

          6. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
            • 1 Year
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Norwich
            Brighton
            West Hammers

            On the bounce.

            1. Nomar
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              Arsenal?

              1. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
                • 1 Year
                15 days, 23 hours ago

                Auba or Kane.

          7. Miniboss
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Hei!

            Who to bench?
            A) Tomori
            B) Lunstrom
            C) some other dude

            Pope
            TAA Söyuncu Tomori
            KdB Mane(C) Maddison Martial
            Abraham Vardy Jimenez

            Button Lundstrom Rico Dendocker

            1. Coys96
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              Probs Lund, just

          8. Sadio
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            If you look at the last 3 Matches at Anfield, you wouldn't have bet on Trent to have hauled against Leicester, Tottenham or City. You have to go all the way back to GW5 when they played Newcastle, where he should have comfortably had 10+ points. Shot cleared off the line, 7 chances created and a lucky goal conceded in the first 5 minutes of the game. An 18 point day was not far away at all.

            Join me this week against Brighton:

            TAA (C)

            1. Coys96
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              Maybe, but I prefer Mane Vardy or Son (C)

          9. simong1
            • 1 Year
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Would you start Mount (WHU) or Lundstram (wol) this week?

            1. Fernando Torres
              • 8 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              MM

          10. Arsenal97
            • 2 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Which transfert should i make this gw :
            Mount => Pulisic
            Chambers => Aurier

            1. Coys96
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              1

          11. Sarri-ball
            • 10 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            crazy to go no city for next 4 if means son and double pool defence

            1. Coys96
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              Not crazy imo

            2. el polako
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              Not crazy at all, considering how many other players is in form.

              No Kun and they hardly setting world on fire, I got only KDB as he is constantly returning and I got him from GW1

              1. el polako
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                15 days, 23 hours ago

                *since GW 1.
                - fecking polak

              2. Sarri-ball
                • 10 Years
                15 days, 23 hours ago

                yeah plan is sterling to son

                can either do
                pulisic to kdb or use money get taa (double up with robbo next 4)

            3. james 101
              • 7 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              Nope. I posted some numbers on this previously. City are worth avoiding just now.

          12. Just Kreuzing
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Went early on Digne to Chilwell as I had 2fts. But now kinda regret it as it leaves me no cash.
            Should have gone Soyuncu and used $ for Mount upgrade to Zaha or Pulisic.
            Would I be mad to now go reverse and make those trades for -4

            1. Sarri-ball
              • 10 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              maybe a mistake in hignsight but for me done now look forward dont switch back.

            2. el polako
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              Mount to Zaha is downgrade.

            3. Sarri-ball
              • 10 Years
              15 days, 23 hours ago

              for me moumt starts weekend.

              dont need jorginho/kovavic/kante home westham

          13. Totti
            • 3 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            guys
            who do u rather ?

            mcginn to:

            A) son
            B) maddison ( already a vardy owner )

            option B will lead me to make next gameweek mount-> pulisic

            1. Just Kreuzing
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              15 days, 22 hours ago

              Maddison... great fixtures

          14. Pia06rc
            • 1 Year
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Anyone doubling up on Salah and Mane for next few?

          15. CC22
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Currently got:

            Pope, Button
            TAA, Soyuncu, Lundstram, Tomori, Mings
            Sterling, KDB, Maddison, Mount, Cantwell
            Vardy, Jimenez, Abraham

            2 FT and 2.5m in the bank.

            Going to do Sterling -> Mane/Salah as one of the transfers, but then feel like I need to get a Spurs player in given their current form. As such, leaning towards:

            a) Cantwell, Jimenez -> Son, Greenwood (-4)
            b) Tomori, Mount -> Son, Williams (-4)
            c) Save the transfer

            1. Just Kreuzing
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              15 days, 22 hours ago

              Save

          16. Purse83
            • 1 Year
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Is it insane to consider the following over Mount -> Pulisic (for free) for a -4 for the following:

            1) TAA and Martial -> Aurier and Salah

            or

            2) Mount and Martial -> Hayden and Salah in a 433 (Soy to come off the bench)

            Team currently is:

            Pope Button
            TAA Soy Tomori Lund Montoya
            Mane Martial Son Mount Cantwell
            Vardy Tammy Jimi

          17. RED_ARMY
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            15 days, 20 hours ago

            a) Son + Mount + Jimmy
            b) Pulisic + McGinn + Kane

          18. Arsenal97
            • 2 Years
            15 days, 17 hours ago

            2.9£ ITB suggestions ?

            Pope McGovern
            TAA Chillwel Lundstram Rico Chambers
            KDB Son Mane Mount Cantwell
            Abraham Vardy Ayew

            Thinking :
            1) Chambers => Aurier
            2) Mount => Pulisic
            3) pope => Schmichel