Pro Pundits - Simon

Why opportunity trumps ability for goal-scoring FPL forwards

Recently I read the book ‘American Sniper’ (bear with me here) which, if you’re not familiar with it, is the autobiography of Chris Kyle, a former US Navy SEAL sniper who totalled a record 150 confirmed kills during his two tours in Iraq.

Reading it, I was surprised to learn that, despite being such a prolific sniper, Kyle was, in fact, considered a fairly mediocre marksman and the reason that he claimed so many kills was actually less to do with his skill and more to do with the number of shooting opportunities he had as a result of being so frequently located in dangerous environments.

Obviously my mind is usually (at least) half on Fantasy Football so, while I was reading this, I started to wonder if a similar principle might be true for top Premier League strikers; whether accuracy is the most important thing when it comes to scoring goals, or is goalscoring more a product of the volume of opportunities that a player has to score.

It occurred to me that the answer to this question might be significant not only for predicting which players will score the most but also for judging form sustainability and true player value.

To try and figure this out I took the average number of goal attempts (a measure of scoring opportunity) and the average shot accuracy of the Premier League’s five top-scoring forwards and compared these to the same statistics for the 10 top-scoring forwards over the last four full seasons.

Does opportunity trump ability in FPL?

The idea was that, if there was a notable difference between the two groups, it could help identify which attribute was most important.

What I found was that accuracy between the top five group and the top 10 one was identical. Both groups on average, were on target with 43.5% of their shots.

However, comparing the volume of attempts, the average for the Top five was 21% higher than the Top 10 group.

So what does this all mean for FPL? Well, it suggests that the number of opportunities a striker has to score is, on average, a more important factor than accuracy in distinguishing the very best strikers.

Admittedly, the idea that more chances equals more goals seems fairly obvious. That said, what I do think is interesting is how this evidence illustrates the conditional nature of skill with respect to goalscoring.

If opportunity effectively trumps ability, we need to put greater emphasis on the context in which the striker is operating as this may significantly influence their returns.

Kane’s goal-scoring form has dropped off ever since he started occupying a deeper role and shooting less often

For example, when we think of Harry Kane (£10.8m), we may think of a striker capable of scoring 30 league goals, as he did in the 2017/18 season, and we might believe that it’s only a matter of time until he does it again, such is his reputation.

But when you look at Kane’s goal attempt statistics (adjusted for minutes played) last season and this current season so far, you can see that they have declined significantly since 2017/18, as has his goal output. Yes, he’s scoring goals, but arguably not at a rate to justify his current cost.

Kane’s shot accuracy has not changed dramatically season over season and there is little to suggest he has become an inherently less skillful player.

Instead, the implication is that negative changes have occurred to the context in which he operates. Spurs and Kane no longer play in a way that is as conducive to maximising his scoring returns, yet he is valued and generally perceived as a premium striker.

Of course, this decline occurred under Mauricio Pochettino and the introduction of Jose Mourinho as manager may well have a positive influence on Kane’s returns though, it’s worth highlighting, that another notable victim of the effects of diminishing opportunities over recent seasons was Romelu Lukaku, who experienced this downturn at Manchester United under Mourinho.

The significance of opportunity volume for goal scoring may, potentially, also be used to predict the sustainability of current goalscoring form and, maybe, even when goals might come.

Often, doing well in FPL relies not being overly influenced by the past or present and successfully predicting what will happen next. Goals scored to date can be misleading as to a striker’s prospects if they are not accompanied by a sustainable supply of opportunities.

Despite all his attacking returns, Wilson has not shot very often this season

Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson (£7.7m), who scored five goals in his opening seven Gameweeks is an example of unsustainable scoring overperformance compared to scoring opportunities.

So far he has registered just 17 attempts on goal in 13 matches so it’s not all that surprising, therefore, that he has not scored since Gameweek 7, yet his early scoring record would have painted a picture of a player who would be expected to continue to score consistently.

Again, context is important. Changes in team strategy, personnel, motivation, confidence, stage of the season and, of course, opposition can all help to create an environment that either stymies or invigorates the number of opportunities that a striker will receive and, it follows, their scoring prospects.

Looking out for potential variations in key factors affecting scoring opportunities can help FPL managers make positive, forward-thinking decisions.

There are some necessary caveats to be made, of course. I’ve looked at a relatively small sample size and, although the trend is apparent and fairly consistent over the time period, it’s probably too limited to be considered conclusive.

Furthermore, while there does appear to be a stronger correlation between goal scoring opportunities and goals scored than between accuracy and goals scored, this will inevitably be one of many factors at play here and, thus, may only be indicative of the apparent trend.

Historically, Vardy has been an exception to this rule although he has started shooting more often in recent weeks

Naturally, for every rule, there are also exceptions, the most notable example in recent seasons being Jamie Vardy (£9.7m). The Leicester man has somehow managed to consistently score lots of goals despite having had a fraction of the opportunities that other top scorers receive, although rather ominously, his volume of shots is actually on the up in recent weeks.

In the opposite direction, you have the likes of Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic who had more attempts than anybody last season (131) and shot accuracy akin to Sergio Aguero’s (36.4) and yet managed only 11 goals, joint 14th for strikers.

Applying all this to my own forwards, I’m reasonably happy with Tammy Abraham (£8.0m) and Danny Ings (£6.0m) who both offer a high rate of attempts per their minutes played (40 and 29 respectively) with good fixtures to come.

How I’m lining up for Gameweek 14

Vardy on the other hand has only managed 31 chances, despite playing by far the most minutes of the three. For reasons given, this doesn’t come as much of a surprise and, to some extent, I’m inclined to ignore it.

What is concerning however, is that his shot accuracy does look unsustainably high, even by his standards (64.5%), which would suggest that at least some regression is imminent.

However, with his coming fixtures, I’m unlikely to be ditching Vardy any time soon, though Wolves’ Raul Jiménez (£7.5m) appears to offer the ideal balance of attempts (41) and fixtures and so offers a strong alternative should I need one.

Finally, it must be said that the easiest way to test this theory and apply it to your own Fantasy team is to use the Fantasy Football Scout Members Area. The tables and comparison tools available there can help you conduct research on the aforementioned statistics with ease each and every Gameweek.

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1,344 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Champions united
    • 2 Years
    14 days, 6 hours ago

    Hold or sell cantwell

    1. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      Easy hold

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 5 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      I'm holding

    3. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      14 days, 6 hours ago

      With Arsenal at home to come? Hold!

    4. jia you jia you
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      wouldn't waste a FT selling him in a straight swap anyway

    5. The Man Pastore
      • 5 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      just hold

    6. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 2 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      said it was precaution so if no problem reported today i would just keep as that performance would likely keep him in the starting 11, Norwich have a little bit better injury list and Arsenal is just awful in defense. IF abraham is out i would either take Bats or just play Cantwell and i think i´m leaning towards the latter as i would want to have 2 FT for that midweek game. It will be that "should i go attacking with Bats, for potentially 2 very nice home fixtures for a good team vs to crap ones or do i just play it safe with Canty to give me some more wiggle room next week kind of conundrum" that could be decisive. I have Janmaat injured as well, could be a problem than the road and Adrian is never going to get out and that blocks me from potentially getting a third Pool asset. Saving this week gives me the room for a nice little Adrian out move. The length of Abrahams injury would perhaps also sway me i guess, might then just go for a minus 4 this week instead.

    7. Predator
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      For who?

  2. Karan14
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Pope
    TAA - Tomori - Soyuncu
    Mane - Sterling - Mount - Tielemans
    Vardy - Abraham - Jimenez

    (4.0 Lundy Cantwell Rico)
    1ft & 2.0m

    If Tammy isn't injured or only out for 1 game I want to make one of these moves. Thoughts?

    A) Sterling ➡️ Salah
    B) Mount ➡️ Pulisic

    Cheers! 🙂

    1. The Units
      • 9 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      B

    2. The Man Pastore
      • 5 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      B

  3. The Man Pastore
    • 5 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Pope Button
    TAA Chilwell Lundstram Lowton Kelly
    Mane KDB Maddison Mount Cantwell
    Vardy Abraham Wilson

    2FT/ 1.9ITB

    If Abraham is confirmed injured, Abraham + Wilson to :

    A) Jesus + Ings (1.7ITB)
    B) Jesus + Jimenez (0.3ITB)
    C) Kane + Ings (0.3ITB)

    Cheers!

    1. Karan14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Like C or B.
      Would also consider Rashford over Jesus.

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 5 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      C kdb enough from city for now

      1. The Man Pastore
        • 5 Years
        14 days, 5 hours ago

        We are talking about the lone striker of the most attacking team in PL tho...

    3. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      C

    4. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 2 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      aggressive moves, could be working but also possibly giving you some problems down the road, gameweek 18 if Jesus loses his place to Kun, Ings gets injured, Ward gets back in time to play that game, but you could get yourself so many points by that move that you can buy yourself out of it with a hit or two.That´the gamble. Wilson needs to be adressed, you can afford Jesus with 1.9 itb? Theni would just leave it and have 2FT in midweek games, Abraham extent of injury could be a lot clearer by then, and you have decent cover on bench in both Kelly and Cantwell this week.

      I think it largely depends on how long Abraham is out, 3 games is large chunk and at least for me the difference between Lamps saying touch and go for this game or out for a week or two is huge. Either way i would not worry about price, as he won´t go down by much, he´s been underpriced so will be protected from huge drop. That said i would not worry about value if is he´out for a week or two, as points over pounds and when a striker for top 4 team costs below 8, i could not care less if i sell for 7.6 and buy back for 8 cause if you hit that transfer right you will get more points and possibly a rise for the player you bring in.

      1. The Man Pastore
        • 5 Years
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        Thanks for the reply mate!

  4. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 5 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Pick 2 , regardless of the price please, thanks 🙂

    A kane
    B rashford
    C Jimmy

    1. Karan14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Tough one.

      Probably A & C on basis of fixtures. But really like Rash as well.

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 5 Years
        14 days, 5 hours ago

        Thanks

    2. Drop the Dendoncker
      • 6 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Ac

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 5 Years
        14 days, 5 hours ago

        Cheers

    3. Amey
      • 1 Year
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      B C

    4. QuintonFortune25
      • 3 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      A B

    5. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 2 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      That United-Spurs game puts me off a bit, but regardless of price (don´t think you can actually apply that to this game but i think i know what you mean) and purely for points from now until over christmas, Kane. That said, i think both b and c is better to own-)

      The issue with the b and c is that both Wolves and United have thin squads or rather few who can step in which means both teams could possibly be suffering from fatigue when we´re going into december and christmas, thus having an effect on their output, but this also has to do with form as if the team goes on a winning run fatigue won´t be that much of a problem, so really a guessing game. Jimenez will get managed minutes down the line i think.

    6. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 5 Years
      13 days, 23 hours ago

      Thanks all

  5. Ljungberg
    • 4 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Given how useless and incompetent this board is, they will probably appoint Gunnersaurus as caretaker manager until the end of the season.

    1. Drop the Dendoncker
      • 6 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Wenlock is probably available.

  6. KUNingas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Burn FT or what would you do? 2FTs and 0.3ITB
    Abraham's PP 7.3 so planning to keep him.

    Ryan
    TAA, Soyuncu, Tomori
    Mane, KDB, Son, Martial, Maddison
    Vardy, Abraham

    Button, Lund, Rico, Connolly

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 5 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Consider.rico to Williams ?

      1. KUNingas
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        14 days, 5 hours ago

        Yeah could do that, Williams not nailed though? Would need Rico to play GW18

    2. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Rico to Kelly?
      Change Ryan?
      Connolly to Mousset?
      Martial to Pulisic?

      1. KUNingas
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        Thanks, good options. However not enough cash to make Connolly to Mousset. Maybe Rico -> Kelly or Ryan -> Henderson

  7. Azzastaan
    • 1 Year
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Already sorted my moves for GW14

    Pope
    Lund Robo TAA Soy Montoya
    Kdb Mane Pulisic Mount James
    Vardy Tammy Greenwood

    Thoughts on transfers for GW15?

    1. QuintonFortune25
      • 3 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      It's a bit early for that, maybe Pope to Henderson though

  8. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Morning dzz, Best combination for next few gw's

    A: Tomori + Mane + Mount + Rashford
    B: Tomori + Mane + Pulisic + Jimenez (-4)
    C: Tomori + Sterling + Son + Ings (-4)
    D: Robbo + Son + Mount + Rashford (-4)

    All above assumes Tammy is fit

    1. cheeky moses
      • 4 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Tight call between A and B. Probably B based on current form of Pulisic and Jimmi

    2. QuintonFortune25
      • 3 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      B

  9. Nailed Jesus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Who do you rate higher as a 7th attacker - Ings or Mount?

    1. The Man Pastore
      • 5 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Ings

    2. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Ings in the short term

    3. KDB4PREZ
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Ings for next 2 but long term mount imo

      1. KDB4PREZ
        14 days, 5 hours ago

        Next few”

    4. QuintonFortune25
      • 3 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      I think Mount, you've got a top 4 attacking mid compared to a relegation candidate injury prone striker.

      Perhaps Mount will be rotated in the tough fixtures to allow Chelsea to play with 3 solid CMs, but is that really such a bad thing anyway? You want Mount at least for the next two home fixtures for me.

  10. KDB4PREZ
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Anyone an idea what time Lampard’s presser is on? Tia

  11. PortoGuy
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Morning All
    2 FT 0.3ITB

    Pope
    TAA Soy Lunds
    Mané Mount KDB McGinn Sterling
    Vardy Tammy

    Button Connolly Kelly Rico

    Likely not moving Tammy out now and hence 1 FT at max this GW. Debating KDB v Sterling out and basically Maddison Vs Son in.

    A. Sterling to Salah
    B. KDB to Son
    C. Sterling/KDB to Maddison
    D. Your welcome suggestions

    Thank you.

    1. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Sterling is currently too much of an expensive luxury as you already have Vardy , KDB and Mane as (c) alternatives. Probably Sterling -> Son for me, which is what I might well be doing later today..

      1. QuintonFortune25
        • 3 Years
        14 days, 5 hours ago

        Agreed, I think selling Sterling and spreading the funds is wise over this fixture congestion coming up. Perhaps Sterling to Son and Mount/McGinn to Pulisic/Maddison?

        1. Old Man
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          14 days, 5 hours ago

          That (Mount - > Pusilic) would be one of two other changes I've been thinking about, but Mount's rest v Valencia and Pusilic's very busy recent schedule might prompt tme o wait until the midweek matches for that.

  12. Dirty Harry
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Is Auba still a hold with Tammy doubtful?

    1. QuintonFortune25
      • 3 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      I think there's loads of other options than just Tammy, what about Kane? Or Rashford or Jimenez?

      I know its Norwich but I would just get rid of all Arsenal assets asap.

    2. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 2 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      yep would not move him on then, Emery gets the boot now, just a matter of time. The way they lost yesterday is so obvious a sign of things going array, leading and then just succumb to a defeat with no desire to come back after they went down 2-1. Ironically, Xhaka who´s been booed by own fans was the only player that seemed to have some dignity and desire, the rest just looked disinterested.

  13. QuintonFortune25
    • 3 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    What's your thoughts on:

    A) Sterling and Dendonker to Alli and Pulisic (2FT)

    Or
    B) Sterling, Dendonker & Tomori to Son, Pulisic & Kelly/B.Williams (-4pts)

    A also gives me £0.6 left over, meaning I can upgrade Connolly to Mousset or Ayew. I think having the stronger squad depth is more important than having Son over Alli right?

  14. Eat my goal!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Double pool defence please do me proud this GW!

    1. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 2 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Had no luck yet with bith TAA and Robbo in terms if dubke cleanie, and almost time to ditch one anyway

  15. Kizza_10
    • 5 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Should I do the following transfers for a -4 hit ?

    Out: Aubameyang & Mount

    In: Jimenez & Son

    1. merin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      I’m giving Auba one more chance. Thats it.

    2. Tonyawesome69
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      Do it

  16. cheeky moses
    • 4 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Which combo would you prefer?
    A) Jimmi, Maddison (Rico)
    B) Kdb, Chillwell (Greenwood)

    1. Tonyawesome69
      14 days, 5 hours ago

      A

  17. Tonyawesome69
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Morning all,
    Anything pressing that needs to be changed in my team or am I gtg? Maybe missing an LEI defender?

    0ft and 0.2itb
    pope
    TAA lundy willem
    mane maddi KDB son martial
    abraham vardy

    Ryan rico dunk connolly

    1. Sirash
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      Abram little chance for playing

    2. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 2 Years
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      a little bit unlucky with bench there, as no good sub for Abraham if he´s out. Willem also tough fixture so hm.. If you won´t take a hit in the case of Abraham being injured i guess Connolly first on bench could be least damaging, and as your team is what it is the most profitable moves is Abraham out as the other one is harder to get points from. But then you lose Abraham and that is a tough one.

      You have 3 not so good option on the field this week but also 8 good ones, and Newcastle usually keeps tight home. Connolly first on bench as that could be a 2pointer while the two other could be minus points,

  18. Christina.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Cool so we have a 4m playing def again in Kelly.

    1. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 2 Years
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      That Ward comeback is stipulated at the most awkward of times, as it is the gameweek 18 which you prolly need Kelly, but knee injuries is not easy determinable so i guess one could take the shot and just hope that Kelly gets that game too. If you manage your team well i suppose one could have him as first bench anyway, maybe i´m making it as a bigger issue than it is.

      1. Christina.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        Im referring to this week with Tammy a doubt. gw 18 is still to far off

        1. bench boost for every gamew…
          • 2 Years
          14 days, 4 hours ago

          yep, you can play him this week but he wont get more than 2 points-)

  19. Kopkloppers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    14 days, 5 hours ago

    Floundering around 100k to 200k. Like everyone I am trying to get a move on my opponents. Cannot move totally away from template; there is a reason players are template.
    I am aware of some of the risks (injury, rotation, form) etc.
    Tell me where this can fail. No Abraham is an obvious risk. You won't hurt anyone saying this is a crap idea.
    Guita Button
    Robbo Lund Aurier Taylor Soy (Cover for Xmas not too expensive)
    Mane KDB Pulisic Teilemans Zaha (Zaha form and Pulisic rotation)
    Vardy Jesus Ings (No Tammy but I was starting to doubt him)

    What must i change here?

    1. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      for starters go to new article...x

      1. Kopkloppers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        I am past my sell by date. I do this countless times.

    2. cheeky moses
      • 4 Years
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      I like it. But not too keen on city assets atm. I would say Son and Rashford over Kdb and Jesus

      1. Kopkloppers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        I would normally agree so I went strong bench hoping for no cameos. I believe the 2 Citeh assets can score big.

    3. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 2 Years
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      Looks absolutely smashing, a lot of money on bench but i gather that´the strategy and way your going. Almost BB material this week.. I think i rather have Grealish than Zaha, yes fixture are bad now but becoming much better soon and you can play the other 7 in some weeks. Jesus is on loaned time, but easy move elsewhere when needed. Palace goalie is good, but Hodson is a bit of strange one as he tends to do changes according to opponent. Last year he said pre-match that he liked to play Hennesey vs sides that are strong and tall (Burnley says hi) as he is better in dealing with those than Guaita. Just a note

      1. Kopkloppers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        14 days, 4 hours ago

        Thanks for the Palace info.
        The Jesus Zaha Gueta Aurier Pulisic and Ings picks are going non template but with enough to cover rotation and fixtures.
        Taking a chance, but yes, I could go safer so its a deliberate change in strategy. I would have Mousset if I thought he was fit over Ings actually.

  20. Lebowski85
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    14 days, 4 hours ago

    Can Mousset cover Tammy this week? I'll need to take a hit for Rashford otherwise

    1. thomashl
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      14 days, 4 hours ago

      Depends if he's deemed fit. I like him, thinking of getting him at some point myself

  21. MaticMVP
    • 1 Year
    13 days, 20 hours ago

    I'll try again hehe.

    RMWCT:

    Henderson-Button
    Robbo-Chilwell-Tomori-Lund-Williams
    Mane-Son-Martial-Mount-Dendo
    Jimenez-Rashford-Vardy

    0.4 left itb.

    Any feedback is much appreciated.

  22. villa_til_i_die
    • 8 Years
    13 days, 16 hours ago

    Sorry if this has been mentioned but how has this weeks scout picks got 4 spurs players?