Spot the Differential

Jesus allows FPL managers to exploit Aguero absence

Differentials continue to be the bedrock of success for Fantasy Premier League managers in 2019/20.

Even though Gameweek 14 saw the popular players deliver, the top three FPL points scorers of the round each had ownership of 3% or less.

It was also nice to see the column’s picks of Danny Ings (£6.1m) and Alexandre Lacazette (£9.3m) also joining in on the fun with more goals.

It just goes to shows that there is value still to be found in unexpected places. 

With that in mind, here are three differentials worth thinking about for Gameweek 14.

Gabriel Jesus

Aguero’s absence could unlock Jesus’ potential as a Fantasy asset

Price: £9.5m

Ownership: 1.9% 

GW14 Opponent: Newcastle United (away)

It’s not very often that Fantasy managers are treated to a striker priced at less than £10M becomes a credible starting option for the Premier League’s reigning champions. 

But with Sergio Aguero (£11.9m) out injured for a few games, the door into our teams looks to have been opened for Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m). 

The Brazilian has only scored three league goals this season and for the most part, he’s just made cameo substitute appearances but when he has played, he has delivered.

Jesus has started four matches this season and has attacking returns in each of them, while four of his five goal involvements in 2019/20 have come away from home. Both of those statistics bode well for Gameweeks 14 and 15 when Manchester City are on the road without Aguero, against Newcastle and Burnley.

The Magpies are without a clean sheet since Gameweek 8 while Burnley have so far conceded seven goals at home to opposition from last season’s top-six.

Some Fantasy managers might be put off by the fact that Jesus has only scored 10 times in his last 37 league appearances. However, he has still registered a Fantasy attacking return every 99 minutes during the same period. 

It certainly shows that Jesus has made the most of his limited game time.

Dele Alli 

Alli could seriously benefit from Mourinho’s arrival at Spurs

Price: £8.4m

Ownership: 1.4%

GW14 Opponent: Bournemouth (home)

Dele Alli (£8.4m) has made a fantastic start to life under Jose Mourinho at Tottenham Hotspur and can be a fantastic differential option moving forward.

Without a start in the first eight Gameweeks, the England international regained his regular spot in the team in Gameweek 9, before Mauricio Pochettino left, and since then he has three attacking returns in the Premier League.

Mourinho’s arrival has already had an impact on Spurs as Gameweek 13 saw them record a first away league win of the campaign with three goals in one match for the first time since September.

He then oversaw a dramatic comeback 4-2 win over Olympiakos on Tuesday night.

One of the players to have stood out in each of these matches was Alli who registered an assist against West Ham and scored Spurs’ first goal in the Champions League.

While we don’t have too much relevant data available just yet, and the likes of James Maddison (£7.6m) and Christian Pulisic (£7.5m) are currently cheaper, getting in on Alli now could be a rewarding move.

Tottenham as a whole, including Alli, have the potential to be reinvigorated under Mourinho for the foreseeable future, especially when considering they must get back to winning ways if they are to finish in a respectable position come May. 

Alli himself has been deployed in a number 10 role and, thus far, has looked comfortable and dangerous.

Tottenham have scored almost two goals per home league match this season and in Gameweek 14 host a Bournemouth team with just one clean sheet on the road in 2019/20.

Danny Ings 

Danny Ings cannot stop scoring but is still owned by less than 5%

Price: £6.1m

Ownership: 4.2%

GW14 Opponent: Watford (away)

We might sound like a broken record recommending Ings for a second week running but it’s hard to ignore him when he’s scoring goals. 

That said, the wider public are doing their best to overlook him because despite his recent form still just 4.2% own the Southampton striker.

Among all forwards over the last six Gameweeks, only Jamie Vardy (£9.7m) scored more goals than Ings. 

Players such as Teemu Pukki (£6.6m), Callum Wilson (£7.7m) and Diogo Jota (£6.1m) have had far more touches in the penalty box than Ings and yet, since Gameweek 8 they’ve all failed to score while the former Burnley man has found the net four times.

It just goes to show that Ings hasn’t been wasteful with his limited goal-scoring opportunities of late and is even capable of scoring away from home at Arsenal and Manchester City.

Right now, there isn’t another striker in the same price bracket displaying the same kind of form as him.

Having said that, Southampton have only won two league game this season and it’s not a huge surprise that they’re currently found in 19th place on the back of pretty derisory home form. 

On the plus side, it’s clear that when they do score Ings’ has an important part to play – he has been their main forward driving outlet. 

After all, he has been involved with 54% of the Saints’ league goals since August. 

They now have a good run of upcoming games that they simply must win to avoid a relegation dog fight from the New Year. 

Up first is a Watford team currently short of some key defensive personnel. Craig Dawson (£4.8m), Christian Kabasele (£4.3m), Sebastian Prödl (£4.0m) and Daryl Janmaat (£4.4m) are all injured for Gameweek 14.

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2,503 Comments Post a Comment
  1. THEKID_88
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Really not sure what is best so looking for advice to sway me.

    A - Bench Tammy and wait for further news next week and transfer Ings in for Greenwood for a - 4

    B - Tammy to Jimmy & Greenwood to Ings for a - 8. Vardy my other striker

    1. jonnybhoy
      • 7 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      B

    2. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      A, for me not losing .5 if he is back for Vila, Everton, Bournmouth.

      1. THEKID_88
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        8 days, 19 hours ago

        Would sell him for 7.7m bought for 7.5m

        1. Freddiebell
          • 3 Years
          8 days, 19 hours ago

          I bought at 7 and not selling do 7.5

  2. g40steve
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Benching Tammy hows setup look?

    Pope
    Tomori, Trent, Soy
    Mane, KDB, Martial, Maddy, Son
    Vardy, Mousett

    Button, Lundstram, Rico, Tammy

    .5 bank

    1. JustPark
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      Good bench.

      1. g40steve
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        8 days, 19 hours ago

        Knows it, ready for xmas maddness.

    2. Tamagotchi Massacre
      • 5 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      Looks great with Lundstram primed for the following fixtures as Tammy cover. Hold steady

      1. g40steve
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        8 days, 19 hours ago

        Cheers, Think Mouse this week though?

        1. Tamagotchi Massacre
          • 5 Years
          8 days, 19 hours ago

          I dunno. Personally I won't be playing lunds, but of the two I think I might be inclined to go with the one that has two routes to points, however unlikely a CS seems

    3. Freddiebell
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      G2g

      1. g40steve
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        8 days, 19 hours ago

        Cheers, hows your year so far (:

  3. Niho992
    • 1 Year
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Only Heaton plays away for me this GW...

  4. Burger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Anyone else get the feeling Arsenal being Arsenal their bouncebackability will equal a loss to Norwich this weekend?

    1. in sane in de bruyne
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      Yep

    2. ‘Tis the Season
      • 1 Year
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      bounce back with freddy. neah..

    3. Tamagotchi Massacre
      • 5 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      Yeah, they're not sh1te because they don't try, they're sh1te because energy put together a sh1te squad

      1. Tamagotchi Massacre
        • 5 Years
        8 days, 19 hours ago

        *emery

  5. jonnybhoy
    • 7 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Starting order

    A) Lundy (wol a)
    B) Tomori (whu h)
    C) Evans (Eve h)

    1. FPL Bloody Hell !!!!
      • 2 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      CBA

    2. in sane in de bruyne
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      ACB

    3. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      CBA

    4. Burger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      A = the new Baines, ie never bench never captain.

      1. Tamagotchi Massacre
        • 5 Years
        8 days, 19 hours ago

        Literally the opposite of this imo. Easy to call when his returns will be

        1. Burger
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          8 days, 19 hours ago

          You're benching, let's catch up on Sunday evening after he hauls and literally continue the conversation.

          1. Tamagotchi Massacre
            • 5 Years
            8 days, 19 hours ago

            Why never bench a player when his hauls are predictable

            The rule with Lundstram appears to be

            Play at home v everyone except the very best

            Play away against poor and average teams

            So why never bench? I've benched him loads of times since getting him pre-season and not missed a single return. Should I have played him in all the blanks?

            1. Burger
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              8 days, 19 hours ago

              Yay you, you'll fail this weekend.

              1. Tamagotchi Massacre
                • 5 Years
                8 days, 19 hours ago

                Robbo, TAA, Chilwell, Pereira
                Mount, Mane, Son, Martial
                Vardy, Ings

                Which of these 11 home players do you suggest I bench for a player who has only played two good teams away and blanked twice ?

                1. Burger
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  8 days, 19 hours ago

                  Foxes will concede so one of the defenders, or Mount. Job done.

                  1. Tamagotchi Massacre
                    • 5 Years
                    8 days, 19 hours ago

                    Ok, i see you're working on make believe now given they have 3 home clean sheets and 4 straight clean sheets.

                    Maybe they will concede. But when you're arguing that an attacking defender in a run of clean sheets at home against an awful team should be benched for a player who entirely predictably will concede and his team will very likely score one goal, then we're dealing with a hunch and you're stubbornly just retreating into the backfire effect

                    1. Burger
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 4 Years
                      8 days, 19 hours ago

                      Chat on Sunday like I said.

                      1. Tamagotchi Massacre
                        • 5 Years
                        8 days, 19 hours ago

                        No need. The decision I'm making is the correct one. Maybe this week it won't come off, because football is unpredictable, but over the course of fifty like decisions it would be the correct course to be taking. So I don't need your I told you so, and I don't need to say I told you so to you. You're advocating a frankly bizarre decision. And that's fine, it's not your team. But if it were your team and you made such a decision I'd be very puzzled

                      2. jonnybhoy
                        • 7 Years
                        8 days, 19 hours ago

                        I'm looking forward to this hahaha

                      3. Tamagotchi Massacre
                        • 5 Years
                        8 days, 18 hours ago

                        This is one of the things I least like about this forum. How quick people are to leap to 'I told you so'. Survey 100 top 10k managers of whether to play Lundstram over, for example, Chilwell, and you'll get a unanimous decision. Because the bare bones of the for/against argument are the recipe for success at FPL. Of course the unpredictable does happen, and well done to anyone predicting the unpredictable. But as a strategy, that'll always be sunk over the course of a season

                      4. Lindelol
                        • 1 Year
                        8 days, 18 hours ago

                        Agreed with Tamagotchi. I was benching Lundy but Tammy injury forced me to start Lundy now

    5. ‘Tis the Season
      • 1 Year
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      BAC

    6. Sicaholic
      • 7 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      CAB

    7. Tamagotchi Massacre
      • 5 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      C/B then A

  6. FPL Bloody Hell !!!!
    • 2 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    A) Gazza + PVA
    B) Guita + Aurrier

  7. balint84
    • 3 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Lascelles, Lowton, Abraham
    Connnolly on bench

    Would you bring a 4.5 defender for -4?

  8. gomez123
    • 6 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Kane Captain anyone??

    1. ‘Tis the Season
      • 1 Year
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      considering it..

  9. Sicaholic
    • 7 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    A. Sterling to Salah, keep Tammy
    B. Sterling to Pulisic (have mount alr), Tammy to Firmino/Kane

    Tempted by Liv fixtures, but no data on firmino. Would be great if someone have insights. Thanks!!

  10. Tamagotchi Massacre
    • 5 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Gazza
    TAA, Robbo, Chilly, Pereira
    Mane, Mount, Martial, Son
    Ings, Vardy (C)

    (Cantwell, Lundstram, Tammy)

    gtg?

    1. in sane in de bruyne
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      Lund first on bench, GTG

      1. Tamagotchi Massacre
        • 5 Years
        8 days, 19 hours ago

        I don't think for me. Everything points towards a blank and retrospectively we can see he's been entirely predictable

    2. Amey
      • 1 Year
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      Excellent

  11. Slitherene
    • 1 Year
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Captain which one?

    A) Salah (BHA)
    B) Rashford (AVL)

    1. Burger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      B

    2. in sane in de bruyne
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      A

  12. Sicaholic
    • 7 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Mane Kdb Mount Tielemans ???
    Vardy Connolly ???

    20m budget for 1 mid and 1 striker.
    Help!!!

    1. Amey
      • 1 Year
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      Son Jimenez

    2. Niho992
      • 1 Year
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      Fodder
      Kane

  13. balint84
    • 3 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    A) buy Cahill (means only Vardy plays as forward for me)
    B) Cahill+Jimenez (yes, it's a -4 version)

  14. Chucky
    • 5 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Tammy to batman or ings for -4??

    1. Amey
      • 1 Year
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      Who's on the bench Chucky ?

      1. Chucky
        • 5 Years
        8 days, 19 hours ago

        lundy 😉

        ramsdale
        robbo vvd soyuncu lundy
        kdb salah maddy mount
        vardy jimmu

        button rico hayden tammy

        1. Amey
          • 1 Year
          8 days, 19 hours ago

          Save

          1. Chucky
            • 5 Years
            8 days, 19 hours ago

            cheers amy..

  15. jdp219
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Pope, Button
    TAA, Lunds, Robbo, Lowton, Rico
    Mane, KDB, Mount, Tielemans, Cantwell
    Vardy, Jimenez, Tammy

    1FT, 0.7itb
    1) Do it anyway: Tammy > Ings
    2) Lowton > Soyuncu
    3) Cantwell > Moutinho
    4) Save (352 w/ Cantwell or 442 with Lowton)

    1. balint84
      • 3 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      4) if Lowton plays, but don't think so
      anyway 1)

      1. jdp219
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        8 days, 19 hours ago

        Tammy out just one week is the fear. Can't get him back without a hit.

        1. jdp219
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          8 days, 19 hours ago

          That's the explanation for the "do it anyway." Deleted previous explanation.

  16. PocketZola
    • 2 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    double pool defence back in fashion, especially with 2 home games?

    1. Ole Trafford
      • 7 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      They haven’t kept any clean sheets at home so far this season but you’d back them to get one.

    2. ZICO SENNA
      • 8 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      How so? I’d say the opposite with Fabinho out

  17. King Kun Ta
    • 4 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Play Lundstram instead of Tammy (4-4-2) or transfer Tammy (quite some money lost then) or Cantwell out for -4?

    2.8 ITB to spend so that gives a good upgrade!

    1. King Kun Ta
      • 4 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      Tammy -> Jesus for -4 or play 4-4-2 with Soy and Lund?

  18. Wag the Drog
    • 8 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Repost anyone? For the Tammy situation:
    A) Start Lundstram
    B) Tammy to Jesus
    C) Tammy and TAA to Kane and VVD (-4)

    1. Ole Trafford
      • 7 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      I’ve done A and B. Was always starting Lundstram and I done Tammy to Jesus. Selling TAA to VVD for -4 seems wrong.

  19. balint84
    • 3 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Ings or Jimenez

  20. King Kun Ta
    • 4 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    What’s the situation with Cantwell? Ready to start?

      1. King Kun Ta
        • 4 Years
        8 days, 19 hours ago

        Thanks! Starter you think?

        1. Tamagotchi Massacre
          • 5 Years
          8 days, 19 hours ago

          Surely. Hes one of their best players. We've already seen them change shape to accommodate him once. He may even end up in the no 10 again. It's only a total regret that I cannot get him off my bench this week

          1. King Kun Ta
            • 4 Years
            8 days, 19 hours ago

            Start him instead of Soy or Lund?

            1. Tamagotchi Massacre
              • 5 Years
              8 days, 18 hours ago

              I would like both him and soy playing. I'm benching Lundstram as I believe his returns are fairly predictable

              1. King Kun Ta
                • 4 Years
                8 days, 18 hours ago

                Thanks for the advice mate!

  21. Ole Trafford
    • 7 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    Gtg? Bench order correct? 0ft .2itb

    Pope
    Aurier, Soyuncu, Lundstram
    Salah, Manè, Maddison, Mount
    Vardy, Jesus, Rashford

    Button, Cantwell, Rico, Saiss

  22. Nailed Jesus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    8 days, 19 hours ago

    If you had both, would you start Aurier or Ings this week?

    1. Ole Trafford
      • 7 Years
      8 days, 19 hours ago

      I’d be trying to play both for sure

  23. Lindelol
    • 1 Year
    8 days, 18 hours ago

    Tammy to Ings for a hit or start Lundstram and Tomori

  24. Salah Daze
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    8 days, 17 hours ago

    Wild Wednesday evening of transfers here - Pieters to Aurier at 6.20, Sterling + Abraham to Maddison + Kane at 8.30. -4 hit and still going to captain Vardy..... Foolish or astute? Time will tell.