Spot the Differential
13 December 2019 978 comments
fplhints fplhints
Share:

Fantasy Premier League managers may find some interesting differential options in defence from Gameweek 17 onwards.

The last round of action saw a welcome return to form for a number of richly-owned offensive assets.

There were double-digit hauls for the likes of Harry Kane (£10.9m), Jamie Vardy (£10.1m), Mohamed Salah (£12.2m), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.8m) and Son Heung-min (£10.0m) and many of these could continue to set the agenda for premium spending over Christmas.

However, as always, five of the top 10 Gameweek 16 scorers were owned by 5% of Fantasy managers or less. 

There is still plenty of budget value to capitalise on, especially among backline assets, which will be the focus of this latest Spot the Differential article.

Vicente Guaita 

Price: £5.1m 

Ownership: 2.1% 

GW17 Opponent: Brighton and Hove Albion (home)

With three consecutive clean sheets in a row, it’s becoming hard to ignore Vicente Guaita (£5.1m) and the Crystal Palace defence. 

Since Gameweek 14, no goalkeeper has scored as many Guaita, who has amassed 26 points, more than the 24 recorded by Vardy, over that period.

The Palace shot-stopper has been helped by a decent run of generous fixtures which continue to have appeal all the way up to New Year’s Day. 

It seems surprising that more FPL managers own the injured Hugo Lloris (£5.3m) than Guaita, even though the injured Spurs man in 3.6%. But that just highlights the potential for differential gains that Guaita offers and I’d be surprised if his ownership did not rise between now and the beginning of 2020.

Perhaps the biggest concern with Crystal Palace is the injuries that are being picked up by their defenders recently, including Patrick van Aanholt (£5.5m), Joel Ward (£4.4m) and Jeffrey Schlupp (£5.5m) while Mamadou Sakho (£5.0m) is suspended for the next two. 

This may weaken them during the festive fixtures although ongoing defensive absences haven’t stopped them in recent outings. 

Some might consider Kasper Schmeichel (£5.3m) for a little more of their budget given Leicester’s defensive form but he still has to face Manchester City and Liverpool in Gamweeks 18 and 19 respectively.

This weekend, Gutaita goes up against Palace’s rivals Brighton who have the seventh-worst away record in the league since August and only three teams have scored fewer goals on their travels since Gameweek 1 too.

Jonny Evans

Price: £5.2m

Ownership: 4.8%

GW17 Opponent: Norwich City (home)

After a fantastic run of form that has catapulted Leicester second place in the league, you would be forgiven to think that all of their defenders would be highly owned.

But despite being a regular starter for the Foxes, Jonny Evans (£5.2m) is still a de facto differential, sat in just 4.8% of teams.

It might seem strange that he hasn’t attracted more attention but up until very recently, Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.1m) was offering exactly the same as Evans but for much cheaper.

However, with their prices now similar, the former Manchester United man is starting to look more attractive.

He has scored 20 points over the last two Gameweeks and last weekend he had more penalty touches (four) than Kane (3), indicating that he can be a threat for the Foxes.

Leicester have kept five clean sheets in their last seven games and are more than capable of making it six from eight against a Norwich team with the worst away record in the league. 

Bigger tests lie ahead after that, with a trip to the Etihad followed by hosting Liverpool on Boxing Day and it may be a tough ask for Leicester to hope for clean sheets in those matches. 

But one thing is for certain, they are a completely different unit under Brendan Rodgers, both in defence and attack. Therefore, Evans is a viable long term pick if you don’t currently have anyone from the Leicester defence.

George Baldock

Price: £4.8m 

Ownership: 5.0% 

GW17 Opponent: Aston Villa (home)

If you missed out on the John Lundstram (£5.1m) bandwagon or are looking to double up on Sheffield United defensive assets then look no further than George Baldock (£4.8m).

In recent weeks, the right wing-back has shot up to fifth for FPL points scored among defenders. As things stand, Baldock has registered a higher season total than Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) and Virgil van Dijk (£6.4m).

Of course, his tally received a massive boost after he found the net and assisted against Norwich last Sunday, but he has actually outscored Lundstram by 34 points to 31 since Gameweek 11 anyway.

That said, Sheffield United’s lack of clean sheets of late is slightly problematic. Since Gameweek 9 they have only kept one and it’s somewhat surprising that they conceded three goals in their last two games, against Newcastle United and Norwich.

However, Baldock’s offensive potential combined with Aston Villa’s defensive problems could see him register more attacking returns.

978 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. DÏLKS
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Bench one, bearing in mind I’ve got Henderson:

    A) Baldock
    B) Lund
    C) Jiminez

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. gaurava1216
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

  2. tricpic
    • 16 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Sterling and Ayew to Tammy and Alli
    y or n?
    Held onto Sterling for too long - he’s probably due a haul.

    1. Kryptonite666
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      No brainer.

    2. Pumpkinhead
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      He is due but I like those moves

    3. gaurava1216
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      do it

    4. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Yes please.

  3. Kryptonite666
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Guys SOS. Cannot make up my mind. Need to use one FT, 0.7 ITB

    Pope (Button)
    TAA Lundstram Soyuncu (Kelly) (Lowton)
    Mane KDB Son Maddison Mount
    Vardy Abraham Mousset

    Plan to do TAA + Mousset + Mount to Aurier + Rashford + Cantwell next week.

    A. Downgrade Mount for Cantwell this week. Play Mousset this GW
    B. Pope to Guita this GW. Take -4 next week for above transfers
    C. Lowton to Aurier or some other defender

    1. jonnybhoy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. gaurava1216
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    3. FPL_DON
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I did B, similar situation.

  4. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    GTG??
    Next, thinking TAA Hayden to Targett Grealish for blank GW18

    Henderson
    TAA/Lund/Soy
    Mane/Son/Dele/Madd
    Vardy(c)/Rashford/Tammy

    Button/Tomori/Hayden/Rico

    1. Fit_to_drop
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Almost identical to my starting XI this week except i have Guaita and Aurier. But yes GTG

  5. wanVwan
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Is Ings scoring run going to continue? Debating if its time to bring in Rashy?

    My other forwards are Vardy and Tammy.

    1. jonnybhoy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Yeah had him since the atart of his form now done ings to rashford

      1. FPL_DON
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Good lord

    2. SADIO SANÉ
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      removing him this week feels like a questionable move

    3. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Im keeping until WC GW19/20 but then fixture turn for worse

    4. Fit_to_drop
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      If a guy catches fire, I'm not sure why anyone wants to hold off, especially for a forward. Which is why I went Jimmy to Rash before the Manchester derby and am glad i did.

    5. FPL_DON
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      At that price he’s a keeper

  6. jonnybhoy
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Start one out of this lot

    A Mousset (AVL H)
    B Mount (BOU H)
    C James (EVE H)

    Thanks all

    1. gaurava1216
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Coin toss between A/B
      James can sit on the bench for sure....

      Leaning B due to ownership

    2. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      B

  7. gaurava1216
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Benching Headache 🙁 Bench 1pls?

    A) Kelly ( Home to Brighton)
    B) Lord ( Home to Villa)

    Current team:
    Pope
    TAA Soyuncu XXX
    KDB Mane Alli Zaha
    Rashford Vardy Tammy

    Button XXX Targett Cantwell

    1. jonnybhoy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Bench A

    2. Fit_to_drop
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Im in the same boat and reading over the posts, most people are favouring Lund because of the possibility of an attacking return if they ship a goal.

    3. SADIO SANÉ
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    4. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

  8. Botman and Robben
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    All set boys and girls?

    Pope
    TAA Soy Lundstram
    Mane Son Alli Zaha
    Vardy(C) Jimi Tammy

    Henderson Kelly Tomori Cantwell

    1. Fit_to_drop
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Yes

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      You know it.

      1. Botman and Robben
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Hope so. Did you once mention about flying to Kampala some time back?

    3. SADIO SANÉ
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      get super Todd up that bench

      1. Botman and Robben
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Over Tomori.

  9. bigdip
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    TAA or Tammy or Rashford captain anybody? Trying to reduced the gap between 1st and 2nd place (i'm in 2nd) so need a cheeky differential

    1. Fit_to_drop
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Just about give it to Tammy over Rash on the basis that BOU are very depleted at the moment. I expect EVE to put up a fight against MAN

    2. SoShy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Tammy

  10. Thunder Warrior
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Zaha to Pulisic Y or N?

    1. Pinturicchio10
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Definitely

    2. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      No. Zaha nailed. Chelsea will rotate. Busy period.

  11. Azzastaan
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Bench 2 of these pls
    Soy kelly lund james mount

    1. Pinturicchio10
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Soyuncu and Kelly.

  12. Pinturicchio10
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Feck ya anyway Tomori. Was hoping for some low ownership Cs points there. Oh well.

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      He’s been a terrible transfer weeks ago for me, will be shifting him to Aurier/Kelly

      1. Pinturicchio10
        6 years, 7 months ago

        I got a couple of decent returns but yeah in general he's been rubbish

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 15 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          For sure, it’s a good job he was cheap haha

          1. Pinturicchio10
            6 years, 7 months ago

            Yeah imagine splurging on Azpi 😀

  13. Captain Kakaroto (I blame R…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    What are the options for liverpool DGW? Westham +?

  14. Ritchies Magic Hat
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Play Pope or Ryan?

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Pope.

    2. Fit_to_drop
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      can you give us an easier one?

    3. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Ryan

  15. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Which WC defense for GW 18 do you like more?

    Ramsdale + Aurier OR Gazzaniga + Maguire (will become Evans or TAA in GW 21)

    Rest of defense is:
    XX Martin
    Lundstram Soyuncu Rico Cahill

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Gazzaniga + Maguire

    2. Lumberjack
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      G&M

  16. Better luck next year
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Feels like a coin toss, but cap Vardy or Mane?

    1. Fit_to_drop
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      V for C
      M for V
      only on the basis that M might get hooked if they are comfortable.

    2. SoShy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Mane

    3. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      It is.

    4. Bushwhacker
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Vardy for safety, Mane for diff.

  17. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Defender punt for GW18 before WC19 or 20? AWB, Doherty?

    1. Amey
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Doherty for sure

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Oh that sweet sweet Doherty.

    3. Fit_to_drop
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      If its just for one week Id go Willems

      1. Fit_to_drop
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Norwich tend to score at home so you are relying on Doherty to attack, away from home

  18. DAVESAVES
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Dendonker or Hayden for 5th spot? Does it matter?

    1. Lumberjack
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Dendo just because Wolves are a better team. Shouldn't matter too often though.

  19. SoShy
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Maddison or Tammy for the armband ?

    1. FPL Blow-In
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      No Vardy or pool? Abraham over Maddison imo

    2. Pumpkinhead
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      No Vardy or Pool players? If I had to pick I'd toss it on Tammy. BOU look horrid atm.

    3. Fit_to_drop
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Id go the latter over former in that case

    4. SoShy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Vardy and Pool mid haven't featured much on my team. Yes I know very silly..

      Think I'll go for Tammy on the basis that the Bou def is in trouble

  20. FPL Blow-In
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Guys why did Gary Cahill miss the two games before last gw? He played very well and got praise from Hodgson is he nailed down you think now?

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Yeah surely he’s nailed, has become a favourite somewhat under Hodgson

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        That’s what I’m thinking after his comments. Decent threat from corners too.

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 15 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          Defo, i may even consider him as a Tomori replacement

  21. Ritchies Magic Hat
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Yeah G and M then get Trent. Evans over Soyuncu to start with?

    1. Ritchies Magic Hat
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Sorry - reply fail to Camzy WC question

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers.

        I bought Soyuncu at 4.5m so I'm just gonna keep him.

  22. Lumberjack
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Tomori to Soy worth a hit? Can't afford any price changes if I want to do it... Or is Gomez worth a shout with Lovren out? Already have TAA.

    A - Tomori to Soy (-4)
    B - Tomori to Gomez (-4)
    C - Tomori to someone else (-4)
    D - save

    Cheers

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A. Pays off right away (probably)

      1. Lumberjack
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Thing is if I play him I bench Lund or Kelly. Think you're right though, cheers.

    2. SADIO SANÉ
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      who plays if you save?

      1. Lumberjack
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Currently have TAA/Lund/Kelly starting which I'm happy enough with. Just don't want to be priced out...

        1. Yank Revolution
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          Think u need to roll w those 3 for this week.

          1. Lumberjack
            • 11 Years
            6 years, 7 months ago

            Fair enough, thanks, I'll be keeping an eye on the price change predictors though!

    3. FPL Blow-In
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Gomez is a transfer waiting to happen don’t thinks that’s worth it at all. Who are you playing if you don’t make the transfer?

      1. Lumberjack
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Fair point. Currently have TAA/Lund/Kelly starting which I'm happy enough with. Just don't want to be priced out...

        1. FPL Blow-In
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          I wouldn’t take the -4

          1. Lumberjack
            • 11 Years
            6 years, 7 months ago

            Cool, thanks

    4. Pumpkinhead
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      D - not worth a hit.

  23. Rash
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Those 3 options would have been great last gameweek.

  24. Slitherene
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Play which combo?

    A) Mount (Vs, Low Point Ceiling) & Kelly (Likely CS)
    B) Zaha (5g, 2a in 10 Games vs BHA, Derby) & Aurier (Attacking)

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      tough one
      A just
      B is chancy may pay off handsomely

  25. FPL Blow-In
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Need to bench one of these.

    A) Aurier
    B) Soyuncu
    C) Cahill
    D) Lundstram

    Currently benching Aurier as he is away and Wolves have hit a purple patch.

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      aurier

      1. FPL Blow-In
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks

  26. Lexi2014
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Have 2 FTs but not sure what to do! Any ideas?

    Pope (Heaton)
    Aurier / Pereira / Lundstram/ VVD (Cathcart)
    Mane / Alli / KDB (Yarmolenko/Cantwell)
    Vardy / Ings / Jimenez

    £0.2itb

    1. Lumberjack
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I'd get rid of Yarmo first.

      1. Yank Revolution
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        This

    2. FPL Blow-In
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Get rid of Yarmolenko probably

    3. Gaddafi
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      you have a wildcard?

  27. Yank Revolution
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    KDB to Alli (to double w Son) this week - or wait till next week?

    1. FPL Blow-In
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Wait for sure imo!

    2. Pinturicchio10
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Sooner the better imo

      1. Yank Revolution
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Two diff responses...hmmm.

    3. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I would, just purely because Alli will have more chance of returns basically being a striker

      1. Yank Revolution
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Leaning this way...I love KDB, but...

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 15 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          I know, me too, it’s a toughie but Alli is the correct option forward i feel 😉

    4. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Wait. It is Arsenal.

    5. FPL Blow-In
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Did you watch Arsenal at all recently? City lost to United last game too can’t see them dropping points.

      1. Yank Revolution
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        A little, yes, they look semi shambolic. But City not exactly firing on all cylinders!

    6. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      wait till next week

    7. Brosstan
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      wait. arsenal are terrible

    8. Bushwhacker
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Don't. Pick one Spursy, have one City.

  28. jtreble
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Looking good for CHE attack: at home and 3 of the top 4 BOU defenders (by minutes) are out.

  29. Crystal Alice
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    What would you do with 2FT?

    Gazza Button
    TAA Robbo Doherty Lundstram Rico
    KDB Mané Maddison Zaha McGinn
    Vardy Tammy Ings

    1. Gaddafi
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      sort out the zaha/mcginn situation.

  30. Gaddafi
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Who's the best midfielder for this GW? Basically I'm wildcarding next week, I wanna get rid of Sterling this week, I have the funds to buy anyone. I'm thinking Mané. My opponent in the cup has Salah, and I want to cover Liverpool (as I only have VVD). I'm thinking that Mané should outscore Salah?

    Can you guys tell me the best midfielder for THIS gameweek only. Why Mané over Salah? Who will score more points and why?

    1. Holmes
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Whats your midfield? Even Sterling can match LIV mids this week.

      1. Gaddafi
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        I have: Maddison, Alli, Sterling, De Bruyne & Dendoncker.

        Starting 4 of them ofc. Kdb already covers city, kind of not worth having 2 city mids anymore.

        I plan on getting aguero once he's back though.

    2. Bushwhacker
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      On form I'd say Mane is a better bet than Salah. But I have Salah and he's my captain.