Harry Kane - An FPL Must Own Over Christmas - Best FPL Tips, Advice, Team News, Picks, and Statistics from Fantasy Football Scout

Harry Kane’s a must.

Say that fast a few times. Doesn’t it sounds a bit like… Merry Christmas?

During the last few weeks when I’ve listened to Fantasy Premier League podcasts I’ve once in a while heard the phrase “Harry Kane often does well over Christmas”. I’ve had the same thought over the last few seasons as well. So I decided to have a look into it.

At first I wasn’t sure how to define the Christmas period properly, but I decided to go for the period of December 23rd – January 1st.

There’s a few reasons for that, and you might think that I’ve chosen this particular period to suit my intent. But looking at previous seasons, Kane and Spurs have not played a game on either 21st or 22nd of December so I thought the 23rd marked a good start of the intense Christmas period. And at the other end I wanted to include New Year’s, and since Kane hasn’t played on January 2nd I decided to mark the end of the period at January 1st.

So with all that said. Let’s get into the statistics.

Over the past five seasons Kane has played 13 games during this Christmas period. He has scored 19 goals and been awarded 7 assists. That’s quite impressive to say the least, and if we weren’t to consider anything else it would be an easy choice to bring him in.

But we’ve all seen how Kane has dropped deeper this season and both touches and attempts in the box have dropped quite drastically compared to earlier seasons.

So I started to think about how his stats over the Christmas period compared to his stats earlier in a specific season. I find the results quite astonishing.

Goals per appearance (Before Christmas – During Christmas)

2018: (0.5 – 1.2)
2017: (0.7 – 3.0)
2016: (0.6 – 1.5)
2015: (0.5 – 1.0)
2014: (0.3 – 1.0)

But the comparison I’m most impressed by is the goal conversion rate.

Goal conversion rate (Before Christmas – During Christmas)

2018: (17.0% – 29.4%)
2017: (12.0% – 37.5%)
2016: (20.0% – 42.9%)
2015: (14.3% – 28.6%)
2014: (11.8% – 60.0%)

I believe this is the big reason why Harry Kane does so well over Christmas. His goal conversion rate skyrockets over the Christmas period and it would probably make even Jamie Vardy (£10.1m) jealous.

So one thing is pretty clear, something happens with Harry Kane over Christmas. The question is, will the story repeat itself this year?

andy85wsm

4 years, 4 months ago

Looking at those goals per appearance and conversion rates it certainly seems like Kane fully buys into the Christmas spirit.

He definitely has the fixtures to do it again this year. He'll need to step up with Son suspended as well!

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Dont give a fuchs
4 years, 4 months ago
Kane C?
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Ginkapo FPL
4 years, 4 months ago
Will he be more advanced without Son? With Lamela/Erikson being the deeper attacker?
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shniklas
4 years, 4 months ago
Yeah I think it's the kind of fixtures where Kane and Spurs can do well even though it might not look great all the time.
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El Lobito 10

Harry must get some extra Christmas loving from the missus. This is astounding. Good write up mate, cheers. Might bring him in now and captain. Decent record v Brighton too.

shniklas
4 years, 4 months ago
I'm glad you liked it, cheers.
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Now I'm Panicking

These community articles should get more focus. Not sure why they are hidden away.

Mingo

Definitely bringing him in in Sky and TFF as a direct Son replacement. I'm now thinking I might need to rejig my FPL plans. He always plays every minutes as they have no viable alternative and with Son out more goalscoring burden will fall on his shoulders. With the fixtures as well this could be the perfect storm for Kane. Norwich x2, Watford, Southampton & Brighton in the next 6 is mouthwatering.

The Polymath

Not this Christmas me thinks

ViperStripes

But would you transfer out:
Vardy - FPL suicide or genius but only captain hindsight knows
Jimenez - 2 terrible fixtures to come but nice steady points
Ings - on form 4 tough fixtures, not a spectacular FPL has his run, run it’s course?

shniklas
4 years, 4 months ago
Yeah I totally agree on Vardy. Has shown that he can deliver against all kind of oppositions.

I did Jimenez to Kane last night actually. I don't think Raúls next two fixtures are that terrible, just as Vardy he has also shown that ge can deliver against all kind of oppositions. But I feel

I have personally not gone for Ings and I don't think it's the right time jump on now. I think a case can be made to jump off now if you own him. He has stayed fit for long now, but I'm not sure two games within
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1. shniklas
  4 years, 4 months ago
  I missclicked that post button..
  
  On Jimenez I was going to say that Kane can be a bit more explosive and I'm ready to take a punt on him.
  
  On Ings I was going to say that two games within 48 hours doesn't feel the best for
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  1. shniklas
    4 years, 4 months ago
    Again lol..
    
    Two games within 48 hours doesn't feel the best for him with that Injury record. I reckon he'll get one start and one appearance from the bench in those two games.
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Rhinos

cheers for this, nice read, bought him before seeing this so feel very upbeat about it now

RedLightning

Not many players can maintain peak match fitness as well as he can over so many matches in such a short period of time, and he is very effective about taking advantage against tired opposing defences.

2014/15: 3 matches in 7 days, 3 goals (1 v Leicester on 26Dec, none v Man United on 28Dec, 2 v Chelsea on 1Jan).
2015/16: 3 in 9 days, 2 goals (2 v Norwich on 26Dec, none v Watford on 28Dec, none v Everton on 3Jan).
2016/17: 2 in 5 days, 3 goals (1 v Southampton on 28Dec, 2 v Watford on 1Jan).
2017/18: 3 in 11 days, 6 goals (3 v Burnley on 23Dec, 3 v Southampton on 26Dec, none v Swansea on 2Jan).
2018/19: 4 in 10 days, 5 goals (2 v Everton on 23Dec, 1 v Bournemouth on 26Dec, 1 v Wolves on 29Dec, 1 v Cardiff on 1 Jan).
2019/20: 4 in 11 days (none v Chelsea on 22Dec, v Brighton on 26Dec, v Norwich on 28Dec, v Southampton on 1Jan).

In these matches he scored no goals in 1 match on 22Dec, 5 in 2 on 23Dec, 7 in 4 on 26Dec, 1 in 3 on 28Dec, 1 in 1 on 29Dec, 5 in 3 on 1Jan, none in 1 on 2Jan and none in 1 on 3Jan.

So probably most likely to score big v Brighton on 26Dec and v Southampton on 1Jan (both 4 days after the previous match), but less likely v Norwich on 28Dec (which is only 2 days after the previous match).

shniklas
4 years, 4 months ago
Cheers for writing a bit of a summary on all the games. I noticed that you included a game on Jan 2 2017/18. I wrote that Kane hadn't played a game that date, but I looked closer when I saw your comment and noticed that he came on from the bench in the 68th minute in that game. So thanks for enlightening me, and I still think the period I chose is fine since it was an appearance from the bench.

You make a good point on the fact that Kane probably is very effective on taking advantage on tired opposing defences.
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