Pro Pundits - Lateriser

How to stop the Mane ‘bad beat’ affecting your FPL season

Fantasy Premier League and the game of Texas Hold’ Em Poker have a lot of similarities.

You’re playing a game of cards throughout the night and there sometimes comes a hand where you have played everything correctly and, statistically, the odds are in your favour.

But then the least probable outcome happens. Your Sadio Mané (£12.5m) Triple Captain goes off injured early. That’s just how the dice rolls sometimes.

In Poker, we call it a ‘bad beat’. Over the course of the night, you have about 150-200 hands to play and there will be times when you do face a bad beat; a statistically unfavourable outcome (more than once in a lot of cases).

What separates the skilled players from the normal players in Poker though are the ones that temperamentally do not get affected by the statistically improbable ‘bad beat’ and continue hammering on with their strategy and trust. Despite a few setbacks along the way, they should end the night with a positive outcome with or without minor adjustments.

Keeping your temperament in control is incredibly important. It’s very easy to go ‘on tilt’ and make a series of low probability, irrational decisions after facing a bad beat.

I was talking to Trigg from the FFS boards while writing this in the morning and he had an important point to make here. As humans, we have a tendency to want instant gratification. We want our money (FPL points) back right away and that sometimes leads to poor decision making.

Clear your head and think again.

Mane, Abraham and Vardy injury updates ahead of FA Cup fourth round weekend

My good friend from the FFS boards, Prophet was telling me about a Serbian saying that when roughly translated in English goes like this – “Mom didn’t blame you for gambling but for trying to dig yourself out of the hole”.

The digging yourself out here means first putting in 100 Euros, then 500 and eventually your house. Tilts are dangerous and we should avoid them. The good Poker players are always looking to hunt and find which of their competitors are going ‘on tilt’ so that they can exploit them for some serious money.

Sometimes, you’re not really lucky throughout the night (or your FPL season) and other nights (seasons) you will be more fortunate than normal. Don’t pay attention to the improbable outcomes. We might not even know about it but we’ve probably made a few ‘statistically stupid’ decisions ourselves that have worked out for the best but it is human tendency to remember only the ones that don’t land on your side of the court.

FPL in some ways is similar. You’re making a skilled decision for an unknown outcome. Arguably, you have more control in Poker but there are similarities. There are factors you control and others you don’t. I wrote an article earlier this season that we are making about 140-150 FPL decisions a season:

  • Initial Team + 2 Wildcards + 1 Free Hit = 4 x 15 = 60
  • 38 Captains = 38
  • 3 Chips = 3
  • 35-55 Transfers throughout the season

Naturally, the FPL chips and your captaincies are your relatively high impact decisions. There is more at stake than normal. But they are still not going to decide your ‘entire’ season. All that has happened with some of the high impact decisions not coming your way is that you have received a ‘bad beat’ in a pot in which you have invested a lot of money. It happens. We’ve seen it over the years and if you want to develop as an FPL/ Poker player, don’t let this affect you, laugh it off, clear your head and continue doing what you are doing.

I’ve faced both sides of the coin very recently. The Jamie Vardy (£9.9m) to Sergio Aguero (£12.0m) captain move which worked out spectacularly (I’ve since sold the Manchester City forward and I’m plotting to get him back). But then, of course, I Triple Captained Mané and that turned out to be quite spectacular in its own right. Just goes to see that no one can really see the future and we’re all playing a game where we’re trying to put ourselves in an advantageous position week on week is all. 

Aguero asking the question of non-owners as De Bruyne ticks over

You have to think of your current position as the starting line. AK, another good friend of mine from the FFS boards says that in Poker, whatever be the case, you have to focus on salvaging your ‘current position’. There is a lot of the game left to be played.  Most of us still have about 50 to 60 decisions remaining in the season. That is about 40% of your decision-making pool. There is a lot you can do to affect that.

  • If you’re ranked at around the 1 million mark right now, 500k is just 37 points ahead. That’s one good differential captaincy in my eyes.
  • If you’re ranked at around 500k right now, 100k is just 59 points ahead right now.
  • If you’re ranked at 100k right now, 10k is only 55 points ahead.

If you look at the game this way, you realize that you can still have the rub of the green, have some decisions working in your way and who knows where you will land at the end of the season.

I’d recommend not looking back at what has already happened; instead, plot further ahead (or just take a break and enjoy the FA Cup football over the weekend) and salvage your current position.

The game is more fun that way. Make yourselves immune to the ‘bad beats’. If you’re far away from your actual goal, experiment with some new strategies for the next season. Re-condition your mind to the changing nature of FPL, or check if your current strategy will take you through this night (season) of FPL Poker and go past the bad beats.

Don’t forget it’s a game that we’re playing for fun based around a sport we watch for enjoyment (supposedly!). Don’t make it anything else. I’m currently sitting at an overall rank of 528 and I definitely intend on having fun with the privileged position I am in. Let’s see where it takes me.

Here’s to no more bad beats.

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1,630 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Szarleej
    • 1 Year
    22 days, 14 hours ago

    Hi,
    Currently on wc, what are your toughts?

    Henderson
    TAA VVD Lundstram
    Martial Grealish KDB Salah
    Ings Jimenez Aguero

    Button - Lascelles Williams Hayden

    1. Tube!!
      • 5 Years
      22 days, 14 hours ago

      I’d be looking to get rid of Martial....Perez?

      1. Szarleej
        • 1 Year
        22 days, 14 hours ago

        Hmm what about:
        Henderson
        TAA Gomez Lundstram
        Traore Grealish KDB Salah
        Auba Ings Aguero

    2. CSF150473
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      22 days, 13 hours ago

      No Leicester attacking would concern me, also Martials a bit up and down

    3. Kopkloppers
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      22 days, 13 hours ago

      Martial can be frustrating but is one of the quickest FPL scorers in the game. he just goes absent which is infuriating.

  2. DS29
      22 days, 14 hours ago

      Auba or Aguero?who is the better fpl asset?

      1. fc_skrald
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        22 days, 14 hours ago

        I think Auba. I have only owned him a for a couple of weeks last season but I might get him for Vardy this gw (only if Vardy is confirmed out I guess)

      2. 007 [RoboKlopp]
        • 3 Years
        22 days, 14 hours ago

        Kun

        1. Tube!!
          • 5 Years
          22 days, 14 hours ago

          Aguero but has a blank GW and then rotation

          1. Pat Bonner
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            22 days, 11 hours ago

            Arsenal play city that week so both have a blank

      3. dwain100
        • 5 Years
        22 days, 14 hours ago

        I hedged my bets and got both. Worry is obviously Pep on Kun but and his price but he looks on great form

    • dwain100
      • 5 Years
      22 days, 14 hours ago

      Morning. WC team. Good to go?

      Henderson Pope
      TAA Gomez Stephens Rico Lundstroom
      Salah KdB Perez Traore Fleck
      Auba Kun Jiminez

    • Tube!!
      • 5 Years
      22 days, 14 hours ago

      GTG?

      Ryan
      TAA Robbo VVD
      Son KDB Maddie Grealish
      Vardy Jiminez Ings

      Martin Rico Kelly Cantwell.

      1. fc_skrald
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        22 days, 14 hours ago

        Reply fail below...

        Yes. Maybe Maddison to someone else but he seems to have been unlucky lately, could turn into the points again soon.

        1. Tube!!
          • 5 Years
          22 days, 14 hours ago

          Could downgrade Maddie to Perez and do Vardy to Aguero.

          1. fc_skrald
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            22 days, 14 hours ago

            I looking at buying Perez myself for Cantwell. But he played 90 minutes yesterday, at least wait until after the midweek game to see what happens.

    • kamdaraji
      • 10 Years
      22 days, 14 hours ago

      WC this squad? Thoughts please

      Mccarthy Gaz
      Rico Lund Digne Lascelles TAA
      Maddison KDB Salah Mane Dendoncker
      Vardy Ings DCL

      0 FT

      transfers already made this week Soy > Lascelles

      1. uwepleban
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        22 days, 38 mins ago

        I would not play a wildcard. Vardy should be ok by next Saturday. If not, Aubameyang or Jimenez are transfer options.

    • fc_skrald
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      22 days, 14 hours ago

      Yes. Maybe Maddison to someone else but he seems to have been unlucky lately, could turn into the points again soon.

    • Holmes (specialist in failu…
      • 6 Years
      22 days, 14 hours ago

      Mari to Arsenal close...

    • fc_skrald
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      22 days, 13 hours ago

      Any early thoughts on what to do with this team and two free transfers?

      Guaita
      TAA, Digne, Robertson
      Salah, KDB, Grealish, Cantwell
      Vardy, Ings, Jiménez

      Martin, Aurier, Lundstram, Hayden
      2 FT, 1,8 million in the bank

      1. Holmes (specialist in failu…
        • 6 Years
        22 days, 13 hours ago

        Aurier to Stevens/Baldock and save other FT

        1. fc_skrald
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          22 days, 13 hours ago

          Thanks. Yes a rational change with double Sheffield Utd. Have also been considering Henderson in goal but think I should stick with Guaita for now.

      2. Amey
        • 1 Year
        22 days, 13 hours ago

        Well done having 2 ft buddy.
        I'm jealous 😀
        Aurier to Fernandez
        Lundstram to other shu defender(next GW if Lundstram has lost his position for sure)

        1. Kopkloppers
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          22 days, 13 hours ago

          Agreed if Lund loses his place.
          Why ditch Aurier? He pays for himself.

          1. Amey
            • 1 Year
            22 days, 13 hours ago

            Can keep him yeah.

        2. fc_skrald
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          22 days, 12 hours ago

          I have been looking at Fernández for some time - is he sure of a starting role at Newcastle or has he been playing because of other players being injured?

      3. Kopkloppers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        22 days, 13 hours ago

        My view only:
        Good
        Good Ave Ave
        Good Good Good Bad
        Bad Good Good
        Bad Good Good Ave

        Probably Vardy to Auba
        Roll over the other

        1. fc_skrald
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          22 days, 12 hours ago

          Thanks. Yes I like the Auba transfer but some rumours on here that he will leave this transfer window, not sure it will happen.

    • venitol
        22 days, 13 hours ago

        Pretty happy with my WC, any thoughts?

        Henderson McCarthy
        Robertson Lunds TAA Cathcart Kelly
        Salah KDB Perez Fleck Hayden
        Auba Jimenez Ings

        Considering giving Kelly the boot

        1. Amey
          • 1 Year
          22 days, 13 hours ago

          Fleck as 7th attacker
          Hayden/Kelly as fodders.
          Lundstram is possibly out of favor now.

          Rest is fine

      • Amey
        • 1 Year
        22 days, 13 hours ago

        I'm almost at that stage, where i wouldn't mind few fa cup injuries so to feel WC Worthy 😀

        Or miraculous recovery for Mane

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          I’ve hit the button but need to try a few differentials given my rank. You’re in a great position so I’d wait until nearer the doubles

          1. Amey
            • 1 Year
            22 days, 11 hours ago

            Thanks mate.
            Appreciate the response. Mane is bothering me in my team tbh 😀

            1. jamesjoseph2770
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              22 days, 11 hours ago

              Mane has to go..

              1. Amey
                • 1 Year
                22 days, 10 hours ago

                For sure. Waiting for WHU game to bring salad in

          2. Amey
            • 1 Year
            22 days, 11 hours ago

            What is your WC team if you don't mind posting ....

      • FPLAdmiral
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        22 days, 13 hours ago

        Thoughts on this WC chaps?

        Henderson
        TAA, Robertson, Baldock
        Salah, KDB, Traore, Fleck
        Aguero, Auba, Ings

        (McCarthy)(Hayden, Williams, Lascelles)

        1. The Man Pastore
          • 5 Years
          22 days, 13 hours ago

          Midfield is too weak. I would downgrade one of kun or auba

          1. FPLAdmiral
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            22 days, 12 hours ago

            I’m at 450k so hoping the Auba/Kun double up can be an explosive differential. Could do Williams to Cathcart if I lost McCarthy and had Henderson as a set and forget

        2. Amey
          • 1 Year
          22 days, 13 hours ago

          Auba Traore >> Jimenez Son ?
          Also, williams to a Watford defender if possible. Man United are going through horrible form atm.

        3. jamesjoseph2770
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          22 days, 12 hours ago

          Excellent team. I have the same WC team..

        4. HMC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          22 days, 12 hours ago

          Midfield suffers due to Kun/Auba double. Assume you’ll captain one of them most weeks?
          Need to consider potential blank for both

          1. FPLAdmiral
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            22 days, 12 hours ago

            Yeah that’s the plan! Kun would most likely go with Auba benched

      • Eddie - Back to Square Owen
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        22 days, 12 hours ago

        Morning all, I'm a little out of the loop and trying to catch up on my fantasy football gossip.

        What's this talk about Lundstram being out of favour? Has Wilder said something? Or is this just based on not starting the league and cup matches?

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          Wilder talked up besic before the last league game and hinted that he would get a chance (he’d been coming on for lundstram previous games so was no surprise when he was benched)
          Besic now played and scored in fa cup as well but not really sure where that leaves Lund. Could play both? If guessing then I’d say Lund will be on bench next game but one to watch

          1. Eddie - Back to Square Owen
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            22 days, 9 hours ago

            Thanks

      • Offs!de
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        22 days, 12 hours ago

        Which combo looks good for Mane & Vardy?
        a) Aguero + Son?
        b) Auba + Mahrez + 2.8m to upgrade elsewhere?

        1. Over Midwicket
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          22 days, 12 hours ago

          A

      • StayoutheSpiceZone
        • 2 Years
        22 days, 12 hours ago

        Goalie

        Darmian
        Smalling
        Tuanzebe
        Rojo

        Young
        McTom
        Pogba

        Rashford
        Lukaku
        Sanchez

        The starting xi from the players ‘out’ on the team news page.

        Beat the current xi imo?

        1. Gobigorgohome
          • 8 Years
          22 days, 12 hours ago

          100%

        2. Kopkloppers
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          Goes to show how the spoilt brats from United can take time off with imaginary injuries.
          Henderson playing for S Utd when he should be playing at United, saving R250k per week in wages.
          Smalling a better left back than C Back. Playing well on loan.
          Rojo never given a chance.
          Young passed his sell by date.
          McTom a rare success ant ManU
          If you want to make profits in imaging, employ Pogba. Otherwise send him on Garden Duty.
          Rashford should move on to a decent club where he can develop quickly.
          Sanchez went from the best player in the league to a chronic level.
          The most important transfer you need is Olly and Woodward can be his agent! (LOL)

      • Warby84
        • 4 Years
        22 days, 12 hours ago

        Hendo McCarthy
        Van Dijk TAA Doherty Stevens(SU) Lascelles
        Salah DeBruyne Fleck Grealish Traoré
        Aubameyang Jimenez Pukki/Maupay(Placeholder for Ings, leaning towards Pukki, as I’ve owned Maupay for a while)

        0.5itb for striker upgrade...

        1. Warby84
          • 4 Years
          22 days, 12 hours ago

          This is WC

        2. fc_skrald
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          22 days, 12 hours ago

          Why not just get Ings in on the wildcard?

      • Over Midwicket
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        22 days, 12 hours ago

        Morning lads On WC, wondering how to improve this draft..

        McC.
        TAA. VVD. Lascelles.
        Salah. KDB. Son. Grealish.
        Auba. Jimmy. Ings.

        4.0. Stephens. O'Connell. Hayden. 0.1itb.

        Really like the balance and mix of explosive differentials.

        1. fc_skrald
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          22 days, 12 hours ago

          I like this one!

          1. Over Midwicket
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            22 days, 11 hours ago

            Thanks. Gorgeous fixtures/rotation for all players and bound to get a ton of price rises on some of the cheapies. Wondering about McCarthy over the likes of Pope (or even finding the 0.5 for Foster/Henderson).

            1. fc_skrald
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              22 days, 11 hours ago

              You would need to change Son then I guess?

              1. Over Midwicket
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                22 days, 11 hours ago

                I like him - Spurs need him to start banging in goals and he has some nice fixtures. Plus don't know how else to spend the $$$ 🙂

        2. Holmes (specialist in failu…
          • 6 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          Pretty good. McCarthy looks like the only weak spot but he has good fixtures and performed fine in last few weeks, so not an issue.

          1. Over Midwicket
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            22 days, 11 hours ago

            Who would you get instead? I could rejig the team a bit to get anyone up to 5.0.

            1. Holmes (specialist in failu…
              • 6 Years
              22 days, 11 hours ago

              Henderson/Dubravka are my preferred choice on WC

              But I probably wont get them at the expense of some decent players. Dont think there is much room for downgrades anyway.

              Lascellas/O'Connell/Grealish/Stephens/Hayden are already cheap.

              1. The 12th Man
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                22 days, 11 hours ago

                That’s an expensive duo though.
                Have you seen how Dubravka/McCarthy rotate?

                I was on that last week before I moved Dubravka to get an extra 0.1m
                Lascelles/Stephens is probably the better way to go if looking for that rotation.

                1. Holmes (specialist in failu…
                  • 6 Years
                  22 days, 11 hours ago

                  I meant one of Henderson and Dubravka, surely wont go with both 😀

                  1. The 12th Man
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 6 Years
                    22 days, 11 hours ago

                    That’s more like it.

                  2. Over Midwicket
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    22 days, 11 hours ago

                    Yeah Dub has great save points and Hendo is in a good defence

        3. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          Looks good, nice few differentials in there. I’m looking at similar. Still not sure on son for his price but he’s def capable of big scores

        4. The 12th Man
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          Very good, would prefer 2 playing goalkeepers on WC but rest is good

        5. Klein
          • 4 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          Looks perfect to me. Really love it. Dont think macarthy is weak really. Southampton have been solid at the back recently.

        6. The 12th Man
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          Maybe VVD > Gomez and upgrade Your second keeper .
          That leaves a little in the bank to use later

        7. Over Midwicket
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          Wow thanks all. Great replies. Don't have BB so just need 1 playing keeper. I'll have a tinker regarding Son and a few others you mentioned but will probably stick (like the VVD pick until the end of the seasob()

          1. The 12th Man
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            22 days, 11 hours ago

            One playing keeper fine then. It’s very good.
            I played mine last week, I have Son .

      • Cto
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        22 days, 11 hours ago

        Any suggestions on this... currently city-less, not overtly worried about that aside from the west ham game... would quite like to bring back KDB. If vardy is out what would you do?

        Ryan
        TAA Robbo Digne
        Salah Maddison Son Traore
        Jiminez Vardy Delo

        McGovern Soyuncu Lundstram Cantwell

        Thanks in advance 🙂

      • fcsaltyballs
        • 4 Years
        22 days, 11 hours ago

        Henderson
        TAA Lundstram Dunk
        Mane Salah KDB Grealish
        Vardy DCL Greenwood

        McGovern Rico Soyuncu Dendoncker

        1 FT, 2.5 ITB

        1. Mane (if injured) >> Mahrez (or suggestion)
        2. Soyuncu Mane >> Robertson Mahrez (or ?!) [-4]
        3. Greenwood >> Martinelli (play Rico for this week and hold Mane)
        4. Mane Greenwood >> Traore Aubameyang [-4]

        Thanks all!

        1. Cto
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          I like 4. Traore is good value still I think

        2. David Brains - OH NO!
          • 7 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          Soy to cheaper and Mane to Son?

          1. fcsaltyballs
            • 4 Years
            22 days, 11 hours ago

            I can still do Soy >> Robbo and get Son I think... just not sure on Spurs atm?!

      • Kai
        • 3 Years
        22 days, 11 hours ago

        I TCed Mane :~(

        Can anyone out there feel my pain? I feel I don't wanna live anymore. *sob*

        1. Klein
          • 4 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          Many many

        2. kamdaraji
          • 10 Years
          21 days, 18 hours ago

          only a game my friend

      • Kopkloppers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        22 days, 11 hours ago

        A quiet Sunday RMT.
        Ryan/Button
        TAA VVD Holgate Williams Lund
        Salah KDB Dacoure Traore Fleck
        Auba Kun Ings

        In 2 weeks VVD to Laporte is my only thought in future transfers until I WC

        1. The 12th Man
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          That forward line. Nice.

          1. Kopkloppers
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            22 days, 8 hours ago

            tnks

        2. Amey
          • 1 Year
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          Thank you for reminding me about Laporte ....
          Good team.

          1. Kopkloppers
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            22 days, 8 hours ago

            I feel Citeh clean sheets coming soon.

      • David Brains - OH NO!
        • 7 Years
        22 days, 11 hours ago

        Mane + Vardy --> Son + Aguero (2 FT)

        Good move? And with price rises/falls is it safe to wait until Friday?

        1. David Brains - OH NO!
          • 7 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          NEW POST (Re posted)

        2. The 12th Man
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          22 days, 11 hours ago

          I like those moves.