Members

New stats in the FFScout Members Area

Fantasy Football Scout is delighted to add a host of new statistics to our Members Area.

Numbers are a staple part of our diets as Fantasy Premier League managers and while some fall into the marmite category, I think we can all agree that the game would not be the same without them.

WHAT’S NEW?

Over the last couple of weeks, a number of new stats have appeared for Fantasy Football Scout members to feast on. When creating a table in the My Stats Tables section of the Members Area, subscribers now have the following additional options:

  • Goals Non-Penalty
  • Penalties Taken
  • Total Shots On Target
  • Fantasy Assist Potential (Shots)*
  • Expected Goals On Target (xGOT)
  • Shooting Goals Added
  • xGOT Delta
  • xG Prevented

*coming soon

Penalties

Both new stats are fairly self-explanatory: ‘Goals Non-Penalty’ is simply goals scored excluding goals from penalties, and ‘Penalties Taken’ is, you guessed it, the number of penalties taken. It means you can now create tables like this one:

New Shot Stats

Total Shots On Target’ combines two metrics – ‘Shots on Target’ and ‘Blocked Shots’. The reason for creating the new stat is that, according to Opta, blocked shots must be on target and:

Shots blocked by another player, who is not the last man, are not counted as shots on target.

– Opta

‘Total Shots On Target’ covers all shots on target.

Fantasy Assist Potential (Shots)’ goes one step further and includes all three shot types that can lead to a rebound assist: Shot on Target, Shot Blocked, Shot Hit Woodwork. Combined with ‘Fouls Won’, managers now have a quick and easy way to assess Fantasy assist potential. Fantasy assists make up 22% of total assists.

Post-Shot Expected Goals

Marmite lovers: get ready for a new taste sensation. ‘Expected Goals On Target’ (xGOT) goes one step further than Expected Goals (xG). 

xG factors in everything up to the moment of the shot – it measures the quality of the chance. What it doesn’t do is tell you how well the player takes his chance: does he fluff it completely or does he stick it in the top corner?

xGOT is different. Not only does it take into account the quality of the chance, it also measures the quality of the shot

It assigns a value to where the shot ends up within the frame of the goal. Shots in the corners are given a higher value than shots down the middle. The thinking behind this is fairly intuitive – shots in the corner of the goal are generally harder to save than shots in the middle of the goal.

xGOT only includes shots on target because if a shot is off target, there’s a 0% chance that it will result in a goal.

xGOT is termed a post-shot expected goal model, whereas xG is pre-shot

How can xGOT help us?

One thing it can do is to give us a better understanding of finishing skill.

For instance, let’s compare Jamie Vardy and Raheem Sterling this season. 

The table above shows the xG and xGOT totals excluding penalties.

What’s noticeable is that Vardy has done very well with the chances he’s been presented with – his shooting prowess means that he’s turned his xG of 9.69 into an xGOT of 11.97. 

Sterling, on the other hand, has done the opposite – his shooting ability has let him down, from an xG of 12.08 he’s produced an xGOT of 10.16.

So this confirms that Vardy is an excellent finisher and Sterling, well, isn’t.

Now I can hear all the eye-test fans immediately shout, “I could tell you that from watching them play, it’s obvious!”. But that, frankly, is the point. If a stat is going to be useful it should mirror reality. 

Not all FPL managers are able to watch a lot of games, like Simon March when he won FPL. And you want stats that can be relied upon to paint an accurate picture of what happened in a football match. 

Is it Skill or Luck?

By measuring the quality of the shot, xGOT tells us more than xG alone.

The next stat compares the two. Shooting Goals Added (SGA) uses both xGOT and xG to quantify finishing ability. 

This is essentially what we’ve just done. Looking at Vardy, we can see above that this season he has an SGA of +2.28. His xGOT is exceeding his xG. In other words, he is executing better quality shots, given the quality of his chances.

If SGA is a useful indicator of finishing skill, xGOT Delta is a guide to luck. It compares goals scored with xGOT. 

Interestingly, Vardy has not been as lucky as you might have imagined. Earlier in the season, there was a lot of talk about how Vardy’s goalscoring run was unsustainable, how it wasn’t possible for him to keep exceeding his expected goals. 

Well, as we’ve seen, expected goals doesn’t take into account finishing skill. Compare his goals tally to his xGOT and Vardy hasn’t overperformed to the same extent. In 2019/20, he’s scored two more non-penalty goals than we would have expected. 

The luckiest player is arguably Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. The Arsenal forward has scored four more goals than we would have expected given the quality of his shooting and the chances he’s been presented with. Perhaps he’s faced some poor goalkeeping this year.

Sorting the table in the opposite direction reveals the unluckiest players. 

With only eight goals from an xGOT of 10.84, Roberto Firmino is arguably the unluckiest of all. Unlike Aubameyang, maybe he’s come up against some goalkeepers in outstanding form, or had a few attempts cleared off the line. He’s scored nearly three goals less than expected.

Also making the list is Liverpool team-mate, Mohamed Salah, along with two players each from Newcastle and Wolves. Could Matt Doherty’s luck change as we enter the final third of the season? 

The Irishman has been unfortunate not to score two more goals.

Guardians of the Net

The final use of xGOT helps us to evaluate goalkeepers. 

By looking at the quality of shots they’ve faced and comparing it to the number of goals they’ve conceded, we get an idea of how well our custodians are performing. 

Courtesy of Opta (now part of Stats Perform) we can see just how well Alisson has done this season.

He’s let in six goals from an xGOT Conceded of 7.3, meaning he has an xG Prevented of 1.3.

However, the best-performing stoppers this campaign have been Martin Dubravka and Dean Henderson, who have an xG Prevented of 7.1 and 6.2 respectively.

Both, however, have faced a much greater xGOT and conceded more goals than Alisson.

Sorting the table in the opposite direction reveals the worst performing ‘keepers this season. And it will come as no surprise to Chelsea fans to discover who is top. 

It’s also easy to understand why Alex McCarthy replaced Angus Gunn in goal for Southampton considering the latter’s -7.4 xG Prevented.

Testimonial

Our very own Pro Pundit Simon March, aiming for his fourth top 10,000 finish this year, won FPL in 2014/15 watching just four live matches over the entire season and in his winner’s interview, explained how much studying the data helped him:

If there is any advantage to this, then it’s that good performances in the real world don’t always translate into FPL points. I’ve often watched matches in the past and thought that a certain player looked good and transferred them in on that basis, only for them to do nothing except waste another transfer when I had to get them back out. Meanwhile, players that seem to barely touch the ball are somehow racking up the points. There obviously are advantages to watching matches, though, but not being able to can force you to think about players differently and, perhaps, in terms closer to how FPL is scored. And adopting that mindset can definitely work to your favour.

– Pro Pundit Simon March, FPL winner 2014/15

Please, sir, I want some more. And you shall have some more, young Oliver. 

We will continue to develop and improve the metrics available to Fantasy Football Scout Members and will keep you informed of progress. Thank you to Matzi11a for implementing the new stats. Hopefully, you find them useful and they give you an edge over your rivals.

Become a Member and access our data

Memberships for the rest of the 2019/20 campaign are now available for the discounted price of £9.99 or the monthly price of £2.99.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

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TopMarx - H2H L4 D5 Fan of Fantasy Football and Monty Python. "Archimedes out to Socrates, Socrates back to Archimedes, Archimedes out to Heraclitus, he beats Hegel. Heraclitus a little flick, here he comes on the far post, Socrates is there, Socrates heads it in! Socrates has scored! The Greeks are going mad, the Greeks are going mad! Socrates scores, got a beautiful cross from Archimedes. The Germans are disputing it. Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside.”

729 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Whats the Huth
    • 4 Years
    10 days, 12 hours ago

    Whom here would like the Liverpool game to be cancelled?

    I would like the game to go ahead.

    I only have Rico, Ayew and Fernandez on my bench.

    1. Halftime
      • 8 Years
      10 days, 12 hours ago

      I have 18 points on my bench so far, i'd like it to be cancelled!

      1. GARY AND JAMIE
        • 6 Years
        10 days, 12 hours ago

        Ive 16 but would end up with no captain

    2. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      10 days, 12 hours ago

      before last night I didn't mind but with Vardy VC I'd like the game to go ahead for sure. also something to watch for the evening

    3. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      10 days, 12 hours ago

      I crtainly want this match to go ahead. I took the VC off KDB because of Storm Ciara only to be potentially nutmegged by Storm Dennis. Salah(c), TAA(vc), Mane, Ings, McCarthy at risk.

    4. Wild Rover
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      10 days, 12 hours ago

      I just want to watch the games and have FPL on a level playing field.

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        10 days, 12 hours ago

        well said that man.

    5. Arteta
      • 4 Years
      10 days, 11 hours ago

      Not me. Desperately need another masterclass by Mo.

    6. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      10 days, 11 hours ago

      I've got Soy points on bench, and three popular Pool players TTA, VVD, Salah. So probably wouldn't be overly damaging to my OR. I'm more concerned about the Southampton game where I have differentials playing.

    7. The Mighty Hippo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      10 days, 11 hours ago

      I held on the Mane on the hope he'd return to fitness soon and will have Mo(c), Mane, TAA for this game so I absolutely hope it goes ahead.

    8. Whats the Huth
      • 4 Years
      10 days, 11 hours ago

      I have Mane. So I am hoping the game goes ahead and he starts and hauls

    9. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      10 days, 11 hours ago

      With 8 points and Fernández third on bench still to play away to Arsenal think probably would like Salah (c) TAA and Firmino playing. Although with Son as vc playing Aston Villa could work out ?

      1. Whats the Huth
        • 4 Years
        10 days, 11 hours ago

        Son is my biggest fear

  2. kennethrhcp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    10 days, 12 hours ago

    A: Lundstram to Boly/Doherty
    B: Dendonker to Traore (start Lund & bench Maddison vs City this week)

    Leaning B

    Team:
    McCarty
    TAA, Robertson, Lundstram
    Salah, Martial, Grealish, Maddison
    Vardy, Jimenez, DCL

    Woodman, Cathcart, Webster, Dendonker
    1FT 3.5itb

    1. FOO FIGHTER
        10 days, 12 hours ago

        I would ship Maddison and Lundstram.

        Maddi to Troare then you have plenty cash for upgrades.

        1. kennethrhcp
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          10 days, 11 hours ago

          cheers for the reply! i'm not a fan of a hit this week tbh. pretty much narrowed down to AorB

          Leicester's fixtures look great after city... if they can pick up form

          1. FOO FIGHTER
              10 days, 11 hours ago

              Interesting you have no City. I was Cityless earlier this season and was not doing to badly. After the massive KDB haul I got him back in again.

              Thinking of moving KDB on again. All comes down to whether Mane starts and mega hauls.

      • Hakim Ziyech
        • 1 Year
        10 days, 12 hours ago

        Ings Magic today

        Come on Danny! Take home the match ball

        1. Holmes (specialist in failu…
          • 6 Years
          10 days, 11 hours ago

          First time owner! 😎

          1. Hakim Ziyech
            • 1 Year
            10 days, 11 hours ago

            Welcome on board, buddy 🙂

      • Arteta
        • 4 Years
        10 days, 11 hours ago

        The real geniuses sold Vardy before Liverpool game.

        1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          10 days, 11 hours ago

          I sold Vardy after the Liverpool game. I don't think it was genius to be honest. Major factor in FPL is luck. His injury at his age has seemed to have impacted him

          1. Devo-McDuff
            • 1 Year
            10 days, 10 hours ago

            Lack of returns last night had little to do with Vardy injury. Strikers need chances to return, Leicester lacked creativity massively.

      • Ógie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        10 days, 11 hours ago

        This has to be the longest gameweek in the history of fpl? :netural:

        1. bitm2007
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          10 days, 11 hours ago

          Those that include an international break are a similar length, but for time between first and last fixture probably.

      • Gunner1290
        • 4 Years
        10 days, 11 hours ago

        Percentage chance of Southampton game getting cancelled? And Liverpool game?

        1. Nightcrawler
            10 days, 11 hours ago

            20% and 10%

          • Hakim Ziyech
            • 1 Year
            10 days, 11 hours ago

            Southampton game looks set to be played. Liverpool, we will find out in 2/3 hrs time.

            Think both will be played

            1. Hakim Ziyech
              • 1 Year
              10 days, 11 hours ago

              100%

              87%

              1. Hakim Ziyech
                • 1 Year
                10 days, 11 hours ago

                ** 0%

                13%

                rather

              2. bitm2007
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                10 days, 11 hours ago

                Do you mean 0% ? Otherwise you are saying Southampton game looks set to be played, but there is a 100% chance of it being cancelled ?

                1. Holmes (specialist in failu…
                  • 6 Years
                  10 days, 11 hours ago

                  Hedging bets 😆

                2. Hakim Ziyech
                  • 1 Year
                  10 days, 11 hours ago

                  I mean 0% & yes, 100% it will be played today at Saint Marys

          • IRBOX ⚽
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            10 days, 11 hours ago

            0%

        2. dunas_dog
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          10 days, 11 hours ago

          Thinking of switching KDB to Mané for TAA Salah Mané triple up. Would mean losing Firmino for max 7.6 striker- who would you choose?

          Thinking Wood as has week 31 fixture. But options are

          A Wood
          B Deeney
          C Deulofeu
          D Benteke (if Liverpool lose cup game to Chelsea then plays week 31 and Palace fixtures look good- and signs he may be returning to form
          E Wilson ( again week 31 player)
          G Better keeping Firmino KDB ( or just get Traoré for KDB and bank cash for now)

          Team would be

          Pope (Henderson)
          TAA Boly Stephens Stevens (Fernández)
          Salah Son Mané (Barnes Mooy)
          Jiménez Ings *****

          1. IRBOX ⚽
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            10 days, 11 hours ago

            Really not liking the team structure with Salah and Mane. Prefer KDB and upgrade your 4th mid, 3rd attacker and defence. Mane provides no value in addition to Salah I believe

            1. IRBOX ⚽
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              10 days, 11 hours ago

              G in terms of the moves you are proposing

            2. dunas_dog
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              10 days, 11 hours ago

              Thanks appreciate that- I could move to double Liverpool defence- Fernández to VVD and Firmino to Wood leaving 1.2 m to spend midfield

            3. FOO FIGHTER
                10 days, 11 hours ago

                Everytime I have had Salah and Mane it has never worked. So what you saying does make sense but with Mane's batteries recharged we could see him go wild.

          2. Holmes (specialist in failu…
            • 6 Years
            10 days, 11 hours ago

            Feels like months since Bergwjin got his debut goal vs Man City! 🙄

          3. THFC4LIFE
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            10 days, 11 hours ago

            A simple google search shows the weather in Southampton around kick off and hours before isn’t too bad, winds of 30mph and rain, same goes for the Norwich area.....

            But obviously things could change, but I really need my 3 Southampton and 3 Liverpool players to play!!

            1. Hakim Ziyech
              • 1 Year
              10 days, 11 hours ago

              Both will be played I need Massive haul from every single bell£nds in my team

          4. JJO
            • 7 Years
            10 days, 11 hours ago

            Spion Kop
            @TheKopHQ
            Norwich v Liverpool will be going ahead today after initial reports this week seemed to suggest that Storm Dennis would get it postponed.

            1. Chucky
              • 6 Years
              10 days, 11 hours ago

              cheers

            2. GARY AND JAMIE
              • 6 Years
              10 days, 11 hours ago

              Norwich literally as far from the storm in the UK as you could get

            3. Ógie
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              10 days, 11 hours ago

              Phewwww!

              I thought i was going to get a healthy serving of karma for trolling City cappers and owners when their game was first postponed. 😛

            4. Amey
              • 1 Year
              10 days, 11 hours ago

              Thanks