The Fantasy Flutter: Burnley can exploit Newcastle’s weakness at set plays

There’s more to football fandom than Fantasy management, with some of our readers enjoying a flutter now and again, too.

In this weekly feature, we turn to the data available in our Members Area to help us make some – hopefully – informed punts on the weekend’s action.

We backed a few winners in Gameweek 27, with goals in short supply at Selhurst Park, Wolverhampton Wanderers winning to nil, Dominic Calvert-Lewin scoring the first goal at the Emirates and Trent Alexander-Arnold claiming two of his customary assists.

We were only a crossbar’s width away from completing the clean sweep, too, with Virgil van Dijk striking the West Ham United woodwork with a header.

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Only Aston Villa (who blank in Gameweek 28) have allowed more attempts from set pieces than Newcastle United this calendar year and in 2019/20 overall.

Steve Bruce’s troops also have the worst expected goals conceded (xGC) from set plays tally than any other side in the division.

The Magpies’ opponents this weekend, Burnley, are second amongst Premier League clubs for expected goals scored (xG) from set plays, meanwhile.

Ben Mee and James Tarkowski are both threats in the air (they have racked up 23 headed chances from dead-ball situations between them) and are 40/1 and 35/1 respectively with Paddy Power to grab the first goal at St. James’ Park on Saturday.

The pair are 18/1 and 17/1 to score at any time with the same bookmaker.

Playing it a touch safer, Chris Wood – whose fitness we should find out about in Sean Dyche’s pre-match press conference – is 5/1 with Paddy Power to break the deadlock on Tyneside and 15/8 with the same bookies to score at any point during the match.

Roberto Firmino‘s Jekyll-and-Hyde goalscoring form this season is well-documented, with all eight of his league goals coming away from Anfield – that’s more than Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah have managed combined on the road.

The Brazilian has also had more big chances on his travels than his two teammates up front have mustered in away games combined.

Firmino just happens to be top of the Goals Imminent table, having ‘underachieved’ to the tune of 2.67 goals over his last four matches based on xG.

Watford, the Reds’ opponents this weekend, have conceded on nine occasions in their last four league fixtures.

The Liverpool number nine is 6/1 with BoyleSports to score the first goal at Vicarage Road and 15/8 to score at any time with BetVictor.

Wolves’ run of clean sheets will surely come to an end sooner rather later but they are facing Tottenham Hotspur at perhaps the right time.

Without Harry Kane or Son Heung-min at Stamford Bridge last weekend, Spurs managed just three shots in the box and didn’t have a single big chance all game, relying on an Antonio Rudiger own-goal for their consolation effort.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have kept out Espanyol, Leicester City and Manchester United already this month, and are 12/5 with William Hill to register a clean sheet at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this weekend.

Matt Doherty is 18/1 with bet365 to notch the first goal and a tempting 7/1 with the same bookmakers to score at any time in north London – no player involved at Molineux last Sunday had more shots in the box or penalty box touches.

All odds were correct at the time of writing. Be sure to check the terms and conditions that apply on all those offers and, of course, they are only available to those aged 18 or over. If you’re going to wager, please always gamble responsibly.