Spot the Differential

In-form Neto can offer starting berth and FPL value during December

There is certainly no shortage of differential candidates to consider for Gameweek 11 of Fantasy Premier League.

Gameweek 10 saw one of our picks, Raphinha (£5.4m), deliver for his owners, while former column favourites Illan Meslier (£4.5m), Jarrod Bowen (£6.3m) and Ademola Lookman (£5.0m) also hauled.

This time, we have selected differentials from Wolves, Brighton and Southampton, who we think have the potential to make an impact in Gameweek 11 and beyond.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Pedro Neto

  • FPL ownership: 3.4%
  • Price: £5.6m
  • GW11-15 fixtures: liv | AVL | CHE | bur | TOT

Pedro Neto (£5.6m) has been in exceptional form for Wolves this season and has seized his opportunity following the sale of Diogo Jota (£6.9m) to Liverpool.

Having registered his sixth attacking return of the season against Arsenal last time out, his fourth in as many matches, he is now the highest scoring FPL midfielder priced under £6.0m.

The 20-year-old ranks top of Wolves’ squad for chances created and crosses, second for shots and penalty area touches, while he also boasts the highest expected goal involvement (xGI) total. In fact, his 18 created chances this season makes him the ninth-most creative player in the league.

Whether fielded out wide, as a number 10 or deeper, Neto has found a way to impact games, and in a short space of time has gone from a rotation option to being one of Nuno Espírito Santo’s key men. 

After several years of playing three at the back, somewhat surprisingly, Wolves have used a back-four setup in their two most recent matches which has seen them take four points. In light of Raúl Jiménez’s (£8.3m) head injury, it remains to be seen whether or not they continue with this shape, but if they do, it should offer more potential in an attacking sense.

Their opponents in Gameweek 11, Liverpool, have a mounting injury list which could see them turn to an inexperienced backline again on Sunday. That bodes well for Wolves, who are now seventh in the table and just four points off the top.

Neto is one of the Premier League’s brightest young stars, and with an ownership of just 3.4%, is a tempting differential for the Christmas period, especially considering the kind hand they have been dealt in terms of festive rest times.

Pascal Groß

  • FPL ownership: 0.2%
  • Price: £5.8m
  • GW11-15 fixtures: SOU | lei | ful | SHU | whu

A recent return to Brighton and Hove Albion’s starting XI has seen Pascal Groß (£5.8m) impress.

He has now started the Seagulls’ last four matches, producing attacking returns in three of them, via assists at Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa before scoring from the penalty spot in last weekend’s draw against Liverpool.

The statistics suggest there is more to come, too.

Since his first start of the season in Gameweek 7, Groß ranks joint-fifth amongst midfielders for creating chances – only Kevin De Bruyne (£11.7m), Jack Grealish (£7.7m, Matheus Pereira (£5.8m) and Hakim Ziyech (£8.3m) have more key passes – while only Andros Townsend (£5.9m) has delivered more successful crosses.

Those numbers probably should not come as a huge surprise though, bearing in mind Groß arrived on the south coast from Germany having created more chances than any other player in the Bundesliga in 2016/17.

His link-up play with Tariq Lamptey (£4.8m) down Brighton’s right-flank is one of their key attacking weapons right now, and together I see them causing Southampton’s backline plenty of problems when they meet on Monday.

Despite managing just two wins across their ten Premier League matches to date, Graham Potter’s team have been posting some encouraging numbers. According to that data, they look to be one of the better sides in the division, and have the potential to kick on over the next few weeks. Their short-term schedule will certainly give them the platform to do that, with Gameweek 11 opponents Saints looking vulnerable defensively on their travels this season, and Fulham and Sheffield United to follow in the next four Gameweeks.  

Dead-ball specialist Groß has a real influence on Brighton’s attack, and could be key to their prospects over the coming weeks. 

Stuart Armstrong

  • FPL ownership: 0.7%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW11-15 fixtures: bha | SHU | ars | MCI | ful

Southampton’s fixtures are among the best in the Premier League over the next five Gameweeks, warranting investment in their attack.

With some uncertainty over which forwards will line-up in Gameweek 11, based on Danny Ings‘ (£8.3m) return to training, it could be safer to look to the Saints’ midfield instead.

Over the last four matches, only James Ward-Prowse (£6.1m) has been the target of more passes in the opposition half than Stuart Armstrong (£5.5m) among Southampton players.

His touches in that area of the pitch is also second only to the England international compared to his colleagues. Crucially, two of his three attacking returns have come since Gameweek 7, so his appealing fixtures can give him exactly what he needs to kick on and offer Fantasy value.

Brighton offer arguably one of the stiffer defences Armstrong will face between now and Gameweek 15, but they have still conceded in all but one of their home matches this season.

After that, Southampton face Sheffield United and Fulham over the festive period.

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1,341 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Redranger
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 15 days ago

    A) Kane & Jamez
    B) KDB & Bamford

  2. Shark Team
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 15 days ago

    What is more likely to happen in the next 2 gws:

    Chelsea to score 6gls total next 2gws
    or
    Everton to score 3gls total next 2 gws

    In other words DCL or Ziyech scores more pts next 2?

    1. Warbling Wendy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 15 days ago

      This is utter dross, what is this madness logic?

      1. Cto
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 15 days ago

        Total dross

  3. aardvark22
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 15 days ago

    whats better?
    A) Zaha to Mahrez
    B) Watkins to Adams
    C) both (-4)
    D) meh dont bother

    1. Cto
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 15 days ago

      Wouldn’t bother now myself