Spot the Differential
16 September 2021 756 comments
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Gameweek 5 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Wolverhampton Wanderers, Newcastle United and Norwich City who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

RAUL JIMENEZ

  • FPL ownership: 4.4%
  • Price: £7.4m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: BRE | sou | NEW | avl | lee

Raúl Jiménez (£7.4m) has blanked in each of his four opening fixtures and looked a little rusty at times, but could do well given Wolverhampton Wanderers’ forthcoming schedule.

In fact, Wolves don’t play another traditional ‘big six’ team until Gameweek 15.

While the Mexican’s returns have been disappointing so far, it’s worth noting that he is the only Premier League forward to register double figures for both shots and chances created. His 13 goal attempts in the first four Gameweeks are second only to the 18 of Michail Antonio (£7.9m) amongst all forwards, while his 12 chances created is only bettered by Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) and Jack Grealish (£8.0m) across all positions.

Wastefulness is clearly costing Wolves in the final third, then, which is backed up by the team’s underlying numbers. While they rank 18th v other Premier League sides for goals, with two, only Liverpool and Manchester City have accumulated more goal attempts and shots in the box than the Molineux outfit so far.

After a tough opening run, which saw them lose 1-0 to Leicester City (a), Tottenham Hotspur (h) and Manchester United (h), they now have an opportunity to build on their 2-0 win against Watford in Gameweek 4.

More clinical finishing is required for Jiménez, but the fixtures should give him the opportunity to open his account for the season very soon. 

JOE WILLOCK

  • FPL ownership: 1.1%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: LEE | wat | wol | TOT | cry

Joe Willock (£6.0m) enjoyed an impressive loan spell at Newcastle United last season, scoring eight goals in just 14 league games, as he emerged as the Magpies’ standout performer.

That goalscoring run saw him become the youngest ever player to score in seven successive Premier League matches, and as a result, a deal worth around £20m was agreed with Arsenal last month.

However, it’s fair to say Willock brought far more than just goals. His ability to drive forward and lead counter-attacks also impressed, which could be crucial in Gameweek 5. 

Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United have shipped 11 goals so far this season, rank 19th for shots in the box conceded and have also given up 26 chances from the centre of the pitch, at least six more than any other side. It’s also worth noting that the Whites can sometimes struggle against direct runners, and will be without the suspended Pascal Struijk (£4.4m), Robin Koch (£4.4m), and perhaps Diego Llorente (£4.5m), too.

In his three Premier League starts in 2021/22, Willock has looked a little short of full match fitness. He was also taken off with a knock in the latter stages of the 4-1 defeat at Manchester United in Gameweek 4. However, Steve Bruce revealed earlier today that he is ‘okay’, which suggests that he can kick on as he becomes sharper.

Now, Willock will be hoping to score his first goal of the season against Leeds tomorrow night and given both teams’ shaky defences, we could be in for an open game.

MAX AARONS

  • FPL ownership: 1.7%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: WAT | eve | bur | BHA | che

Norwich City have lost their opening four top-flight games, conceding 11 goals in the process, which is hardly the basis for recommending a defensive differential.

However, the schedule has of course played a part, with matches again Liverpool (h), Manchester City (a), Leicester City (h) and Arsenal (a) to open the season. Now, with the fixtures easing right through until the beginning of December, using Max Aarons (£4.5m) as part of a rotation pairing could pay off.

The England U21 international has created more chances than any other Canaries player this season, has had four goal attempts of his own and also ranks second for final-third touches. Defensively, the numbers suggest he could do well for bonus, too, having made 10 successful tackles, seven interceptions, five blocks and 20 ball recoveries. 

Norwich’s clean sheet prospects are of course debatable, but the additions of centre-half Ozan Kabak (£4.5m) and defensive midfielder Mathias Normann (£4.5m) could add a little more solidity to their set-up, and with Watford up next, who are without a single goal or big chance to their name in the last three Gameweeks, a shut-out isn’t completely out of the question. It’s also worth noting that only three teams in the division have conceded more crosses from their left-flank than the Hornets this season.

Priced at just £4.5m, Aarons could be a nice value option at the back, who can step into your starting XI when the fixtures fall kindly.

756 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Pukkipartyy
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Toughts about Torres, if he gets benched what he sure will get at some point. Do u recon he stays out or will be subbed for 1 pointer?

    1. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Depends on the situation of the game. Winning comfortably then he might remain on the bench otherwise I see him coming on

    2. Simon69
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      No point trying to understand Pep's thought process, but him coming off at 70 last night was surely a good thing.

      1. Pukkipartyy
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        True. Im on WC and thinking to go with Torres and covering the benching with Gray. Toughts?

    3. Khark
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Torres is a good option just make sure you have a good first sub. Like said above dont even try and understand pep.

  2. Dogs Of War
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Dennis, Pukki or A.Barnes?

    1. BIGREDDOG
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Dennis the menace for me

    2. polis
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Is none of them an option?

    3. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      How about a fifth mid, even for -4?

  3. Manani
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    likelihood of Mahrez playing this week?

    very low I guess since he played 90 mid week?

    1. StayoutheSpiceZone
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Difficult to know. I thought he was sending a 'stroppy' message to Pep after scoring his goal yesterday too. Wouldn't surprise me to see him back on the bench.

  4. C_G
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    DCL ---> Bam (-4)??

    1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      yes. DCL is out for at least a couple of games

  5. BIGREDDOG
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Man. Really having trouble deciding on Bamford or Jiminez. I've got Raph already.

    1. Joey Tribbiani
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      flip a coin

  6. _Gunner
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    DCL>? For free

    A- Bamford
    B- Jiminez

    Already have both Raphinha and Traore’

    1. Manani
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      a

    2. BIGREDDOG
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      That's a toughie but I'd probably say Bamford. So I think you've answered my above question for me.

    3. Pukkipartyy
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      B

    4. Calum Undisputed
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      bam bam

  7. StayoutheSpiceZone
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Sanchez
    TAA White Shaw
    Salah (c) Jota Raphinha Greenwood Traore
    Wood Lukaku

    Ready to go for this weekend? Made the 1FT and roll the other?
    Good luck all!

  8. C_G
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    my team, I did a FT early in the weekend. 0.1 ITB

    Sanchez Steele

    White TAA Shaw Marcal Williams

    Raph Allan Salah Jota Benny

    Ronaldo Antonio DCL

    DCL ----> Bam? (-4)? or DCL----> ??

    1. polis
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Yep. To Bam is flavour of the week.

    2. Khark
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      You brought in marcal because he got 13 points last week didnt you.

      DCL has to go, shame its for a -4 but do it

  9. mcginnntonic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    just to confirm

    jota is 100% playing over firmino?

    does klopp have a presser before deadline?

    1. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Where did you get come up with that 100%, its rotation season now with mid week games.
      I think jota could get rested with one of Origi, Minamino or ox starting

    2. McSauce
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      well defo not 100% but likely to start yes

    3. I Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Is Firmino even available?

  10. Will Kane
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Why did I transfer out Toney instead of Wilson? I'm such a plum sometimes.

    1. polis
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      That was silly

      1. Will Kane
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        I agree completely.

  11. sirmorbach
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Friends, please:

    Meslier (4.0)
    TAA / Shaw / Coufal (Livramento, Omobamidele)
    Salah / Jota / Torres / Raphinha / Benrahma
    Bamford / Ronaldo (Obafemi)

    A. Benrahma to Gray/Gallagher/Saka
    B. Coufal to Coady/Marçal
    C. Hold

    Leaning towards B or even C really, but I'm curious to hear your thoughts.

    1. polis
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      B or C from those.

      I'd go B. Wolves have the run of fixtures.

      1. sirmorbach
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        Thank you very much!

    2. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Coufal is more of an emergency than Ben (Man U could run riot here), and Coady lacks attack threat, so Coufal to Marçal for me

      1. sirmorbach
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        Very helpful! Thank you very much indeed!

        1. Ze_Austin
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 22 days ago

          You're welcome 🙂

  12. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Antonio still got 13 more points than any other striker

    I bet you can’t guess who is 2nd, no peeking

    1. Simon69
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      I looked.... What the hell.

    2. Zimo
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Is it cheating if i already peaked yesterday?

      1. Zimo
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        Peeked*

    3. Ze_Austin
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Jesus?

      1. Ze_Austin
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        Yup. Thriving in that new role. Very bad for Mahrez, like Grealish is for Sterling

      2. Steve The Spud
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        10 points for slitherin!

    4. I Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      I really want to punt on Jesus on WC.

      1. Ze_Austin
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        Fixtures and Mahrez, sadly

  13. I Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    WC team good to go?

    Sanchez (Steele)
    TAA, James, Semedo, White (Livramento)
    Salah, Jota, Raphinha, Gray (Sissoko)
    Ronaldo, Bamford (Antonio)

    0.5 ITB

    1. Khark
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Looking strong

    2. Messiah Hazard
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Tabloids saying James may be given a few days off after the break-in at his home.

      1. I Member
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        Didn't know about this, thanks.

  14. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    is antonio to bamford worth -4?
    if not i am forced to play wiliams or duffy

    1. Khark
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Play williams

      1. polis
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        This.

        You'll want Antonio back next week.

    2. grumpyman
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Antonio has leaky Leeds the following week. And if you don’t play Williams with his great fixture this week, when will you?

      1. polis
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        Wrong argument there. He's a 4m defender. Could easily be last on bench all season.

        But as above, would play him this week.

  15. BIGREDDOG
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Sitting at 8k rank after gw1 of UCL! 🙂

    1. polis
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Good work! How about FPL?

      1. BIGREDDOG
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        900k... team looking okay tho!

  16. Scholes Out For Summer
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Has anyone thought about St Maximin? A goal and 2 assists, main man for Newcastle and two nice fixtures coming up. Leeds only have 1 CB right now…

    1. polis
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Would be a massive rank boost if it comes off.

      If you have the luxury of taking a punt for a couple of weeks he's definitely up there.

      1. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        I’m tempted for Jesus + st max for dcl + Antonio for a hit. If we all want Antonio for Leeds, why not st max for Leeds at home right

    2. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      He is in my wc team right now, the next 2 fixtures are great. Based on returns, he is the best sub 7.5m forward at the moment

      1. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        Yeah I’m super tempted by it honestly. Short term punts over long term transfer. I just don’t have a wc to bail me out lol

  17. Mozumbus
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Whom to transfer out first, have got two FTs, and for whom:
    A. Dier
    B. Tsimikas
    C. Mbeumo
    D. Toney

    1. polis
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Anything in the bank?

      Would lose Tsim to a playing defender and one of Mbeumo or Toney.

      1. Mozumbus
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        1.9ITB. should have mentioned already. Thanks.
        Who not Dier?

        1. BIGREDDOG
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 22 days ago

          Tsimi and Toney out I'd say. Bamf/jimi/Saint maximin and defender idk whoever you can afford. Lots of good options

          1. Mozumbus
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 22 days ago

            Thanks

        2. polis
          • 15 Years
          5 years, 22 days ago

          Dier will play when he's back from injury. Tsim won't regularly and 2 FTs is a good opportunity to move him on.

          Tsim to wolves (Semedo or Marcal)

          Mbeumo to either a ~5.5 (Gray/Dou/Gallagher) or up to a 6.5 (Raph/Saka)
          Mbeumo to

          1. Mozumbus
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 22 days ago

            Thanks a bunch. Makes lot of sense.

  18. Eat my goal!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Problem with big moves, they often go wrong, more parts more potential for error!

    Nothing worse than taking -8 to set up your team for long term and then it falls apart in a week!

    1. polis
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      -8 is asking for trouble most of the time.

  19. BRFC
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    What is the best wildcard draft to go with?

    Sanchez Steer
    TAA Marcal Williams Livramento 3.9
    Salah Raphina Jota Torres Mendy
    Pukki Lukaku Ronaldo

    Sa Steer
    TAA Shaw Marcal Livra 3.9
    Raphina Salah Torres Jota Mendy
    Bamford Jimenez Ronaldo

    1. Khark
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      You'll get a 50/50 split on here posting a 2 and 3 premium draft.

      Second one for me.

    2. BIGREDDOG
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      B

  20. Ze_Austin
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Chelsea wasn't this open under Tuchel last season

    Something has changed, but I have no idea what. Maybe not enough data yet? Or a few games as outliers?

    1. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      They look pretty solid to me. Best defensive side in th league

    2. The Mentaculus
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Think its just cos they fielded a much weakened team against Villa & Saul kept giving away possession. And playing 10 men at Anfield, but defended superbly

    3. BIGREDDOG
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      They're rock solid. Stats might undersell their defense a bit.

  21. Chief Break-Everything
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Any improvements to this WC Team? .3 ITB

    Sanchez
    TAA Rudiger Semedo
    Salah Raphinha Jota Torres Gray
    Ronaldo Bamford

    (Steer Dennis Duffy Livramento)

    1. I Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Looks good. Very similar to mine above.

      1. Chief Break-Everything
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        Thanks. Although you've also managed to keep Antonio and have a playing 4.5 Sissoko. That works nicely. Back to tinker

  22. 58Gord
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Jota or Torres?

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Jota

    2. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      jota

  23. okan58
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    My Team.

    2 FT:
    Bank: 1.3

    Sanchez
    Shaw - Coufal - Digne
    Salah - Rapfinha - Bruno - Grealish
    Toney - Antonio - Ings
    Subs: Foster, Bissouma, White and Amartey.

    -> I would like to install Lukaku. Bruno and Antonio out for Pogba and Lukaku, would you do it? Or do you have other suggestions.

    1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Ings,Antonio,Bruno > Lukaku,CR7,Moutinho

  24. DycheDycheBaby
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Which one would you keep on wildcard?
    a) Greenwood
    b) Torres

    1. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Greenwood, then drop him for Torres in gw8

  25. Champions League Varane
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Would you play williams or sissoko this week?

  26. FOO FIGHTER
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Cancelo, Dias and Ederson the safest picks from City.

    1. Rog.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Canc the only one I’d go near

  27. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    Roll? 1ft 0.7 itb

    Sanchez
    White Taa Shaw Digne
    Salah Raph Benrahma Jota
    CR7 (c) Toney

    Foster B.Williams Brownhill Antonio

  28. robith
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    I've wildcarded but slightly concerned my team sucks?

    Sanchez (Steele)

    TAA/Shaw/Marcal/White/Livramento

    Salah/Greenwood/Torres/Gray/Gallagher

    Ronaldo/Antonio/Armstrong

    0.8 ITB

    Main issue is too weak to play 343 or 352

    Challenge is Greenwood and Antonio

    Antonio to Jimenz and I can make Gray or Gallagher into Rafphina. But I'd just want big Mikky A back in the future? Greenwood to Raphina and I can make Amrstrong into Bamford....too much Leeds?

    So i Guess

    A) leave it

    b) Antonio to Jimmy, Gallagher to Rap

    c) Greenwood to Rap, Armstrong to Bammie?

  29. Rog.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    A) Shaw + Gray
    B) Sarr/Traore + Semedo (Already have Marcal and Dennis) +0.2 ITB

    On A atm but had Traore in my team prior to WC

    1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      A- you clearly never wanted traore

      1. Rog.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 22 days ago

        I only bought him in last week!

  30. I Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 22 days ago

    TAA, XXX, Semedo, White, Livramento

    6.1m to fill that last defensive spot on WC. Who would you go for? Considering Dias, Cancelo, James, Rudiger and Shaw.

    1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      Rudiger

    2. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      James

    3. BIGREDDOG
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 22 days ago

      James or Cancelo.