Spot the Differential
10 December 2021 1458 comments
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Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Everton, West Ham United and Manchester United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

ABDOULAYE DOUCOURE

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: cry | che | LEI | bur | NEW

Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.4m) has impressed under Rafael Benitez this season, bagging two goals and four assists in just 11 starts. As a result, the 28-year-old is averaging 4.6 points per match, which is more than team-mate Demarai Gray (£5.5m) and only fractionally below Jarrod Bowen’s (£6.5m) 4.7 total.

Having missed a run of four matches from Gameweek 9 onwards with a broken metatarsal, he has since returned to Everton’s engine room alongside Allan (£4.5m). During that period, he has registered six shots in the box, a figure only Diogo Jota (£8.0m), Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Hakim Ziyech (£7.3m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£5.2m) can better amongst all midfielders.

The Toffees have been plagued with injury problems all season, with some of their most influential players – including Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) – all spending time on the sidelines at various points. However, the crisis does now seem to be easing, which coincided with an important 2-1 win over Arsenal on Monday night, when Doucoure was a little unfortunate not to produce an assist, with Richarlison’s (£7.4m) goal from his pass narrowly ruled out for offside by VAR.

Now, they take on a Crystal Palace side who have had real issues defending set-pieces in 2021/22, which could be good news for Doucoure, one of Everton’s key aerial threats, while between Gameweeks 18-26, they sit top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture.

Doucoure was predominantly used in a deeper midfield role last season, but has thrived after being handed more attacking responsibility by his new manager, and could be an effective differential in the coming weeks.

VLADIMIR COUFAL

Is it time to sell Antonio and Benrahma in FPL? 5
  • FPL ownership: 3.9%
  • Price: £4.7m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: bur | ars | NOR | SOU | wat

Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has been a solid performer for West Ham United since joining from Slavia Prague in 2020, and is now back in the starting XI after losing his spot through injury and the fine form of Ben Johnson (£4.0m).

The right-back has now started back-to-back Premier League matches, which has seen the Hammers beat Chelsea and draw with Brighton and Hove Albion. During that time, amongst all team-mates, only Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) have attempted more shots in the box, while his three successful crosses is a team-leading total. That’s important, too, given that this weekend’s opponents Burnley have allowed 184 crosses from their left flank this season, at least 18 more than any other side.

This season alone, David Moyes’ team have managed league victories over Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur, while they are also through to the last-16 of the UEFA Europa League after topping their group. Now, they have the opportunity to kick-on, with one of the kindest fixture schedules on offer, with games against Burnley, Norwich City, Southampton and Watford before the end of the year. In fact, they will face only one side currently nestled in the top six right up until March.

Having dropped £0.3m from his initial starting price, Coufal now offers a cheap route into West Ham’s defence, and could be a solid set-and-forget option given their appealing fixtures.

HARRY MAGUIRE

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: nor | bre | BHA | new | BUR

Harry Maguire (£5.4m) has endured a difficult start to the season at Manchester United, but the appointment of Ralf Rangnick could prove a turning point.

In his first game in charge, the German tactician opted for a 4-2-2-2 formation, with Scott McTominay (£5.4m) and Fred (£4.9m) effectively screening the back four. As a result, United conceded just eight shots and 0.75 expected goals (xG), while they also kept their first Old Trafford clean sheet since all the way back in April, ending a run of 15 games without one there.

As for Maguire, he remained assured and composed throughout, with his distribution from the back particularly impressive. In fact, the England international played 15 successful passes into the final third on Sunday, more than any other player on the pitch, which could be key moving forward, with a new, more direct approach being implemented.

The schedule should also allow Maguire to thrive. On paper, the fixtures for Rangnick’s first couple of months are about as good as it gets, especially in December, with no matches against the current top six to worry about. Looking further ahead, it’s notable just how appealing that run is, right through until March, with just one game against West Ham United the only red blob on our Season Ticker.

With uncertainty around who will be United’s long-term first-choice full-backs, Maguire could be a solid under the radar pick, with an ability to contribute points at both ends of the pitch.

  1. Bullet Eder
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    If I've taken hits this week, would they be wiped out if I activate my free hit chip?

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

    2. EmreCan Hustle
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

  2. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Chances of these two playing?

    A. Jota
    B. ESR

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A more than B. Both unlikely from what I can interpret.

      1. Qaiss
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        ESR has trained and is feeling better. Jota hasn’t trained yet. How do you interpret that?

      2. Catastrophe
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        A looks far more unlikely no?

      3. Scholes Out For Summer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        B is far more likely than A lol

        ESR has trained and Arteta has said is feeling much better. Jota hasnt trained or played this entire week, and Klopp doesnt know if he'll even train today

    2. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Would be surprised if Jota is risked, ESR probably features.

  3. CrouchDown
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    ESR(-4) to:

    (A) Bowen
    (B) Jota
    (C) Mount
    (D) Play Livramento

    1. Catastrophe
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      C or A

    2. Futureform
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Isn't Jota injured?

    3. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Play ESR - he trained today

    4. NotsoSpursy
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Looks like esr will play

  4. Catastrophe
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Would never consider FH in a non-BGW usually but on a -12 with likely only 9-10 starters. Thinking it may be a surprisingly good week to climb rank versus Teams taking hits/not fielding 11?

    Votes/Advice greatly appreciated! The Teams aren't too different but I don't lose 12 points and will have 11...

    A) No FH (-12)

    Ramsdale
    TAA, Cancelo, James
    Salah, Bernardo, Mount, Jota*, ESR*
    Ronaldo, Dennis
    (no bench)

    B) FH

    Ederson
    TAA, Cancelo, James, Rudiger
    Salah, Bernardo, Mount, Bowen
    Ronaldo, Origi

    (3.9, Dennis, Dalot, Fred)

    Cheers

    1. CostaCoffee
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      No FH, you'll survive. What changes are you making to make it -12??

      1. Catastrophe
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers - for once I made early transfers in preparation of a big H2H next GW - Kane, Toney, Raphinha, Gallagher -> Ronaldo, Mount, Bernardo, Locadia.

    2. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I doubt you actually have no bench. You dont have Livra?

      ESR is probably playing, so its only jota you have to worry about.

      1. Catastrophe
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        As per the above - no bench (Reguilon, Dier, Locadia). I'm 100K rank and focussing on H2H and I frustratingly brought Dier in last week for Livra for Norwich (which won me the H2H but has now put a spanner in the works!)

    3. Water_Pink
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Do it

      1. Catastrophe
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers

    4. Rog.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Possibly the only person in a worse state than me. I’m doing a -12 but should be able to field 11 with Semedo coming in for Jota if needed (so basically 10). I’d probably do the -12 because if you’re in a similar position to me you can’t garuntee you won’t need to take hits next week.

      1. Catastrophe
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers. I doubt I'd need to take a hit although I'd probably end up doing -4 so I wouldn't need to start Raphinha (assuming ESR fit but Jota may still be out).

  5. Futureform
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    How essential is Jota now, with the injury and firminho coming back?

    1. Rainer
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Don't forget Origi's form.

      1. Futureform
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Ah, so he might get the start?

  6. Ha.
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Pages flying

    Anyone would think there is a Friday deadline

  7. fish&chips
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Final decision before bed. 1st on bench

    1) livra
    2) sissoko

    1. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      2

  8. Jones Kusi
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Best option?
    A. Dalot, De Gea, Gallagher/Saka (6.6 mid)
    B. Mendy(3rd sub), Guaita, Gundogan

  9. CostaCoffee
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Sterling differential over Bilva
    Thoughts?
    Likely to be a 1 or 2 week punt as I want Foden whenever he's fully fit

  10. AI3user
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    A bit of a predicament, play one:

    A) Alonso
    B) King

    1. CostaCoffee
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I like both for this week, anyone else worth benching?

    2. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B

  11. FredUpAlready
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Would you hold Jota on a WC? I got him for £7.6 and he's £8.0 now

    1. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Yes, assuming you can cover

    2. Scholes Out For Summer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      yeah as long as your bench is 2 or 3 deep, id just bench this GW

    3. Futureform
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I'm wondering the same thing. I just am clueless on Jota's chances post injury, with Firminho coming back (I think)

      1. RamboRN
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Jota place to lose, he has been on good form

        1. Futureform
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          It's a good point. I just wonder how much this little injury issue this week will affect him.

  12. antis0cial
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    What do you think the chances of the following starting are? (only 2 on bench - Raph/Liv)

    A) Foden
    B) Jota
    C) Alonso

    1. EmreCan Hustle
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      50%
      25%
      80%

    2. TheRealDog
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      40%
      5%
      95%

  13. Scholes Out For Summer
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Currently with this team, with no money in the bank and FT used.

    Sanchez*
    TAA - Cancelo - Alonso - White
    Salah - Jota* - Gundo - Bernardo
    CR7 - King
    Foster* - Toney* - Livra - Brownhill

    Waiting on Liverpool training pictures, but if Jota is out again, does Jota + Foster --> Bowen + Bachman (-8) look good? leaves enough money to upgrade Toney to Watkins next week. Could also upgrade Sanchez to DDG in the move, but not enough money to upgrade Toney to Watkins or Antonio for the week after

  14. EmreCan Hustle
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Bench 1.

    A. Jota (orange flag)
    B. King
    C. ESR (yellow flag)

    Thanks.

    1. Arteta
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I have to say Jota.

      1. EmreCan Hustle
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers.

    2. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A

      1. EmreCan Hustle
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers.

  15. Futureform
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    What's all the love for King instead of Dennis right now?

    1. EmreCan Hustle
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Pens and Dennis might be called up for AFCON.

      1. Rassi
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        And King has better underlying stats.

    2. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Stats and pens.

    3. Ha.
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      More attractive

    4. Futureform
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Ah, didn't realise AFCON is relatively close. How many games could players miss?

    5. Futureform
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks all!

  16. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    -4 team. Should I WC? Jota and ESR risks.

    DDG
    TAA. Cancelo. Alonso
    Salah. Jota*. Raph. ESR*
    Ronaldo. Antonio. King
    (Foster. White. Livra. Gilmour)

    1. Arteta
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      No no no.

  17. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Already own Gundogan and Dias. Is Bernardo due a rest at all??

    Was getting him in but looking at their squad is so good feel unsure on him starting

    1. Weak Become Heros
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Bernardo rested midweek in CL. 99% sure to start this week.

    2. CostaCoffee
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Bernardo got a rest midweek, didn't travel

    3. fricky_
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Bernardo will play for sure. He rested midweek

    4. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Cheers all

  18. Andrew
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Suggestions please guys I have 2FT and £2.1 ITB but no playing GK and Son in my team and ESR flagged

    Sanchez (Steele)
    Rudiger White Livramento (Coady Williams)
    Salah Son Raphina Gallagher ESR
    Ronaldo Antonio Hwang

    1. Arteta
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Son to Bernardo/Bowen/Mount seems to be move of the week. If you're planning on keeping Sanchez for future DGW then get rid of Steele. De Gea and Ramsdale are popular picks.

  19. xHaTr
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Jota to Bernardo for -4?

    1. NotsoSpursy
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Depends on your bench!

  20. The 12th Man
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Play 1.
    A) ESR
    B) Gallagher
    C) White

    Currently starting ESR v Southampton but wondering if he'll get a cameo if not completely fit.

    1. Miro
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      He might. Would still play him tho.

  21. TSN
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    gallagher to mount (-4)?

    yes or no?

    1. NotsoSpursy
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

  22. NotsoSpursy
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Please can you bench one?

    A) Jota*
    B) Dennis (BRE away)
    C) Raph (CHE away).

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      C

  23. drughi
    • 16 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Already on a minus 4, anymore hits needed ?

    Guaita
    TAA Cancelo James Rudiger
    Salah(C) Jota* Bowen
    Ronaldo Antonio King

    Foster ESR* Livramento Gilmour

    1. NotsoSpursy
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      I think u just need to risk either jota or esr playing

  24. Dion D's Solo Shower
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    I know everyone is posting all over the place, but would love some advice here:

    Considering this for a -8 hit:

    Kane + Jota + Emerson --> Ronaldo + Bowen + Maguire

    Worth it? Or madness?

    1. Warby84
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Worth it

    2. xHaTr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Not sure about Jota to Bowen for -4

      If you can cover on bench might be worth keeping jota

  25. Bobby Digital
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    RASHFOOORD!!

  26. Weak Become Heros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    So many hits flying around this week!

  27. Footieboot
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Do I hit the WC button with the below and 1 FT remaining?

    Sanchez - Foster
    TAA Alonso Emerson (out) Cancelo Livra
    Salah Jota (doubt) Foden (doubt) Raph Gilmour
    Wilson King Antonio

    WC Draft is

    DDG Foster
    TAA Alonso James Cancelo Dalot
    Salah Bernardo Bowen Gilmour Brownhill
    Ronaldo Antonio King

    1. RamboRN
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Similar wc to mine. With bowen already do you still think Antonio and gilmour/brownhill would be better than mount and a fodder striker like boja

    2. Water_Pink
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      G2g

  28. afs2239
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    What to do here?!!!!

    Rams
    Livra TAA Alonso
    ESR salah (C) foden Son
    Benteke Hwang wilson
    Bego Reguilon Ben johnson cornet

  29. Sal8
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Bottomed
    Jota replacement for -4?
    Already have salah bilva

    1. Rashford
    2. Mount
    3. Play livra off bench and no hit
    4. Others

    1. CostaCoffee
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      3

    2. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      You don't want Jota home to Newcastle in midweek???

    3. fricky_
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Bowen?

  30. bruuuno
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts on this WC?

    Guaita Bachmann
    TAA Cancelo James Dalot Williams
    Bernardo Mount Salah Bowen Odegaard
    Ronaldo Antonio Locadia

    0.1 ITB