Pro Pundits

How I plan to recover from a tough few Gameweeks in FPL

Five-time top 1k FPL finisher Tom Freeman on Calvert-Lewin, Wolves and his Gameweek 2 plans

After a disastrous few weeks in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), I’m using this international break to refresh, refocus, and start planning for the run-in.

But first, here’s the state of play:

Pretty awful, right, with the only green arrow of late arriving in Gameweek 26 when I handed Mohamed Salah (£13.3m) the Triple Captain chip. Aside from that, it’s been a thoroughly bleak period, not helped by so many excellent scores in the community, particularly by those wielding multiple chips.

And that’s the point really, for those of you like me who have chosen not to Wildcard, it’s probably been a tough time, too.

To highlight this, I’ve included one of Greyhead’s recent tables (see below), taken from his excellent Great and The Good series. Here, he compares the fortunes of the Gameweek 26/28/29 Wildcarders against a small group who didn’t play the chip, including myself, Neale and Zophar. It’s pretty grim reading, especially with Az grinning just above, having gained a whopping 100 points on me since Gameweek 26.

Having analysed my transfers from this period (see below), I’m honestly not sure I’ve done too much wrong, and if anything, I’ve probably been a bit unlucky.

None more so than in Blank Gameweek 30, when Aaron Ramsdale (£5.1m), Max Kilman (£4.6m), Raphinha (£6.5m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£5.3m) all failed to show up, taking me down to just five starters and another serious rank drop.

Not owning Son Heung-min (£10.9m) and Bukayo Saka (£6.7m) this past week hurt, but it was hard to fit in both Tottenham Hotspur premiums, while I genuinely believe Martinelli is a better Fantasy option than Saka when both players are on the pitch. Blank Gameweek 30 was when I really needed the Brazilian to step up, but illness, of course, put paid to that. On reflection, perhaps I should have backed Saka given his ownership, but I rarely let factors like that influence me, and Martinelli did outscore his more expensive teammate when I made the move, which kind of backs up my initial instincts.

Going back further, Dejan Kulusevski (£6.3m) and Andrew Robertson (£7.2m) did the damage in Gameweek 29, but in the latter’s case, there was no easy route in, and I had to be mindful of Liverpool’s Gameweek 30 blank, too.

Reflecting on a tough period in FPL as I plan for the season run-in 2

However, it’s worth stating that it’s been a period of fine margins in FPL. As Pranil said in his weekly column (go have a read here if you haven’t already, it’s excellent), if you owned two of Reece James (£6.2m), Philippe Coutinho (£7.5m) and Kai Havertz (£7.9m) in Gameweek 28 you were probably fine, even with the captaincy on a below-par Raphinha (yep… that was me).

Now, having got over that initial disappointment we all feel when faced with several red arrows, I’m looking ahead and feeling reasonably optimistic about the run-in, armed with a Wildcard, Bench Boost and Free Hit. In terms of targets, the immediate aim is to get back where I was, as quickly as possible.

Using Ragabolly’s excellent LiveFPL site, you can see I’m 50 points off the top 50k right now. Whilst it’s a lot, it doesn’t feel insurmountable at all, especially given the chips I have in hand.

So, now we’ve got that out of the way, I’m going to discuss chip strategy for the run-in, a few teams/players I’m keeping an eye on, and also my immediate plans for Gameweek 31.

CHIP STRATEGY/TRANSFERS

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178 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Boxwoods
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 27 days ago

    Somehow ended up with this draft WC. Not a true 5 at the back, but would play all 5 some weeks. Thoughts?

    Rams (assuming fit)
    Robbo Cancelo Rudi Matip Doherty
    Salah Son Saka Gallagher
    Kane

    Foster Ramsey Cucho Gelhardt

    0.2 ITB

    1. Boxwoods
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 27 days ago

      BB used. 2 FH left

    2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 27 days ago

      If using WC I'd try to get at least one Chelsea attacker there or James over Rudiger, he's still a solid option but even with rotation I think you have to try attack those fixtures with someone with more attacking intent than Rudiger. Think I'd get someone else than Gallagher too, he hasn't really done much in an attacking sense for a while, what about Olise? Won't always play a full 90 but seems pretty nailed now, started the last 5 and that may allow you to get James. Other than that looks solid if you're using FH in 33 to get Leicester / ManUtd cover

      1. Boxwoods
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 27 days ago

        Thanks for the reply. I will monitor James over Rudi, but my God, the former struggles to stay fit!

        I can shoehorn Havertz in for Gallagher by downgrading one defender (probably also have to drop Gelhardt to a 4.5), but worry about rotation and not clear to me from looking at stats that Havertz will (as opposed to could) offer that much over Gallagher (who has pretty good fixtures for the run in himself).

        Plenty of time to think, happily.

        Yes, will likely FH in 33 & 36.

        1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 27 days ago

          That's fair, yeah James is definitely a risk, but I think with 2 weeks to rest while building up fitness I'm hoping he'll have a good end to the season. Havertz is in a nice run of form but yeah definitely a rotation risk too, if you're bringing him in over someone nailed and then have to downgrade a bench option to someone else possibly not nailed then it could turn ugly for sure. I suppose just keep an eye on things over the break and see how it all looks next Friday. Good luck

  2. FPL Emu
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 27 days ago

    Sorry, bottomed. I'll add an extra player for kicks

    In %, what would you give these players of starting GW31?

    A) Mahrez (away to Burnley, CL 3 days later)
    B) Havertz (home to Brentford, CL 4 days later)
    C) Robertson (home to Watford, CL 3 days later)
    D) Cancelo (like Mahrez)

  3. Nate(U)dog(ie)
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 27 days ago

    Unlucky Tom although you're still in a really good position. Definitely shows how tight the margins can be. In the same period as YOU (GW26-GW30) the only extra chip I used than you was BB (didn't use TC on Salah) and I had 4 green arrows out of 5, twice hit 100+ and my lowest score in those 5 weeks was 62 (which was this week where I rolled FT). I'm nowhere near as high as you are in ranking but after a quite ridiculous amount of red arrows until my GW25 WC, it has really put me in a better spot to end the season but a couple of tight calls resulting in you going a different way can make a big difference still (bear in mind I didn't have a single one of James, Havertz or Coutinho for GW28 either).

    1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 27 days ago

      *not sure why "you" is in all caps

  4. CLOD
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 27 days ago

    Hi folks, would you prefer on wildcard

    Matip + Foden
    or
    Robertson + Martinelli

    Thanks in advance

    1. JBG
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 27 days ago

      B

    2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 27 days ago

      B by a distance

    3. FPL Emu
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 27 days ago

      B

  5. Invincibles
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 27 days ago

    A Digne > James
    B Cout > Ramsey

    C Son > Havertz
    D Laca > Kane

    Good moves? Worth doing A+B this week to fund C+D next?
    A) Yay
    B) Nay

  6. Cheeky Onion
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 27 days ago

    Think I'll roll my FT this week. Is the bench correct? 1 FT & 1.3m ITB

    De Gea
    Cancelo - TAA - Robbo - Doherty - White
    Salah - Kulu - Foden - Saka
    Watkins

    Bachmann - Silva - Broja - Edouard

  7. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 27 days ago

    Wingers to be classified as forwards.

    If you play front 3 then you're not a midfielder really. Even if you have to track back.

    I guess this creates tensions in Pep's teams where he wants to rotate players between the attacking lines to improve their overall performance and fluidity in the team. More choice of strikers would be better.

    Or a change to squad structure and allow an extra midfielder and just 2 strikers as currently classified.

  8. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 27 days ago

    Do Arsenal and Southampton have DGW33?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 27 days ago

      I see they do sorry ignore that

  9. jimmyharte
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 24 days ago

    Who would you transfer in?

    A) Mount
    B) Foden