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Newly Promoted Teams 2010-22

This article examines the records of teams that have been promoted from the Championship to the Premier League since 2010. This reveals how many of them struggled to make a successful transition from second tier to top flight, with clean sheets and goals far tougher to come by. I will also look at some of the players and teams who bucked the trend to become great sources of Fantasy points.

To put that rough ride into perspective here’s a summary of some analysis I carried out looking at the averages for goals scored, goals conceded and clean sheets for the 36 teams promoted in 2010-2021.

While they scored 86 goals on average in their promotion seasons from the Championship, that figure dropped to just 40 the following season in the Premier League.

Their defences also struggled in the top flight. While they let in 43 goals on average in the Championship, that tally rose to 61 among England’s elite. They also found clean sheets harder to come by with their average dropping from 18 to 8 post-promotion.

This means that anyone expecting the three sides promoted in 2022 (Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest) to get as many goals and clean sheets in the Premier League as they did in the Championship could be in for a shock.

Promotion Successes

Players

But it’s not all bad news. There have been some notable high performers from the promoted sides, particularly among the budget picks, so it may pay to invest in a few of the players coming up to the Premier League.

The following 31 players from the 36 newly promoted teams all scored at least 100 FPL points at 4.0 points per game (ppg) or better in the season after securing promotion:

2010-11: Charlie Adam (Blackpool) 192 at 5.5ppg; Andy Carroll (Newcastle -> Liverpool) 135 at 5.2ppg; Kevin Nolan (Newcastle) 140 at 4.7ppg; Joey Barton (Newcastle) 131 at 4.1ppg; DJ Campbell (Blackpool) 138 at 4.1ppg.

2011-12: Michel Vorm (Swansea) 158 at 4.3ppg; Bobby Zamora (QPR) 119 at 4.1ppg; Scott Sinclair (Swansea) 151 at 4.0ppg.

2012-13: Rickie Lambert (Southampton) 187 at 4.9ppg; Kevin Nolan (West Ham) 149 at 4.3ppg.

2013-14: None.

2014-15: Charlie Austin (QPR) 176 at 5.0ppg; Danny Ings (Burnley) 139 at 4.0ppg.

2015-16: Odion Ighalo (Watford) 175 at 4.7ppg; Troy Deeney (Watford) 166 at 4.4ppg; Heurelho Gomes (Watford) 157 at 4.1ppg.

2016-17: Tom Heaton (Burnley) 149 at 4.3ppg.

2017-18: Pascal Gross (Brighton) 164 at 4.3ppg.

2018-19: Raul Jimenez (Wolves) 181 at 4.8ppg; Diogo Jota (Wolves) 139 at 4.2ppg; Neil Etheridge (Cardiff) 154 at 4.1ppg.

2019-20: Dean Henderson (Sheffield United) 160 at 4.4ppg; John Lundstram (Sheffield United) 144 at 4.2ppg; Jack Grealish (Aston Villa) 149 at 4.1ppg.

2020-21: Patrick Bamford (Leeds) 194 at 5.1ppg; Matheus Pereira (West Brom) 153 at 4.6ppg; Stuart Dallas (Leeds) 171 at 4.5ppg; Jack Harrison (Leeds) 160 at 4.4ppg; Illan Meslier (Leeds) 154 at 4.4ppg; Raphinha (Leeds) 133 at 4.4ppg.

2021-22: Ivan Toney (Brentford) 139 at 4.2ppg, Emmanuel Dennis (Watford) 134 at 4.1ppg.

Securing 5.0 ppg or more is rare though, with only Adam and Carroll in 2010/11, Austin in 2014/15 and Bamford in 2020/21 achieving this.

John Lundstram and Stuart Dallas are the only ‘defenders’ on this list. Few defenders from newly promoted teams score enough points to be played every week, but they can still be useful as enablers or in cheap rotations.

Charlie Austin in 2014 and Patrick Bamford in 2020 were very rare examples of forwards who scored more goals in their first season back in the Premier League than they had the previous season in the Championship.

Teams

Previous articles in 2015-2021 took a detailed look at the most successful promotion teams for Fantasy managers since 2010. Here I’ll highlight some key success stories:

The 2010/11 season proved an excellent time for promoted sides in terms of goals. Newcastle and West Brom both scored an impressive 56 goals in their first season back in the top flight. Blackpool did well too, scoring in all but one of their home matches.

A change of manager proved pivotal to Crystal Palace in the 2013/14 Premier League. After switching from Ian Holloway to Tony Pulis they ended the season conceding fewer goals in the Premier League (47) than they had in the Championship (62). Only two newly promoted sides have achieved this feat since 2010.

Huddersfield had been promoted in 2017 with a negative goal difference (-2) as a result of their policy of throwing caution to the winds whenever they went behind but being satisfied with narrow victories when ahead. Miraculously, they managed to avoid immediate relegation. Like Crystal Palace, they achieved this by tightening their defence, only conceding the same number of goals in the Premier League as they had done in the Championship (58).

In 2020, Sheffield United became the second newly promoted side to concede fewer goals in the Premier League (39) than they had done in the Championship (42).

And in 2021, Leeds United scored an amazing 62 goals, six more than the heroes of 2010/11.

Promotion Failures

Players

While Adam, Carroll, Austin and Bamford all succeeded in both the Championship and Premier League, the road to promotion is littered with poorly performing casualties. Here are some of the biggest flops.

Adel Taarabt (QPR 2011): 19 goals in Championship, just 2 in Premier League.

Glenn Murray (Crystal Palace 2013): 30 goals in Championship, only 1 in Premier League.

Sam Vokes (Burnley 2014): 20 goals in Championship, none in the Premier League.

Jordan Rhodes (Middlesbrough 2016): 16 goals in Championship, none in Premier League.

Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham 2020): 26 goals in Championship, only 3 in Premier League.

The failure by Adel Taarabt was not entirely unexpected, since his previous record in the Premier League was not great. He had played 6 matches but failed to score for Spurs in 2007/8 and only played one match for them in 2008/9 before being loaned out to Championship side QPR in March 2009.
The reason for Glenn Murray’s lack of goals in 2013/14 was quite different though. He had been out injured since the end of the 2012/13 season and was not fit to play till February 2014, after which he scored 1 goal in 14 matches. He was then sent on loan to Reading for the first half of the 2014/15 season, after which he returned to Palace and scored 7 goals in 17 matches in the remainder of the season. He returned to the Premier League with Brighton in 2017/18, this time scoring 12 Premier League goals.

Sam Vokes scored no goals in 26 matches in his first 4 Premier League seasons, but then redeemed himself by scoring 10 for Burnley in 2016/17.

Jordan Rhodes had been a prolific goal-scorer in the Championship, but failed to score in 6 Premier League games and was sent out on loan to Sheffield Wednesday.

Aleksandar Mitrovic had scored 20 goals in two earlier seasons in the Premier League, but was surprisingly ineffective in his third Premier League season.

16 of the 34 players who had been among the ten highest scorers of the season in the Championship in 2010-21 did however manage to score 10 or more goals for the same team in the Premier League the following season.

The 34 averaged 20.0 goals in gaining promotion from the Championship, but only 8.2 in the next season’s Premier League.

16 of the 34 were new to the Premier League, averaging 9.25 goals each in their first Premier League season.

The other 18 (most of whom had not been that successful when previously playing in the Premier League) only averaged 7.3.

So the Premier League newcomers performed about 27% better on average than the rest – but the distribution is extremely erratic, some players scoring considerably fewer goals and others only a few less.

Charlie Austin in 2014 and Patrick Bamford in 2020 were the only players in the 34 to score more in their first season back in the Premier League than they had in the Championship during their promotion season.

Teams

The list of failures is far longer, as my earlier articles showed. Here are some of the poorest performers since 2010:

Norwich in 2010/11 and Reading in 2012/13 both failed to keep a single clean sheet on the road.

Hull’s defence in 2016/17, which had only conceded 35 goals and kept 20 clean sheets in the Championship, was completely outclassed in the Premier League where they conceded 80 goals.

Fulham in 2018/19 were also outclassed, scoring only 32 goals compared to 79 in the Championship and conceding a whopping 81.

Norwich had scored 93 goals and only failed to score in 3 matches in the 2018/19 Championship, but in the 2019/20 Premier League they scored only 26 goals, failing to score in 20 matches, and didn’t win a single away game.

Fulham in 2020/21 were very poor in attack, but especially so at home (mostly with no fans) where they only managed to score 9 goals and failed to score at all on 12 occasions.

Norwich in 2021/22 were even worse than they had been two years earlier, setting new records for fewest goals scored (22), most goals conceded (84) and greatest number of matches in which they failed to score (22).

Watford had conceded only 30 goals and kept 23 clean sheets in the Championship, but their defence failed them in the 2021/22 Premier League, conceding 77 goals (46 of them at home) and only keeping 4 clean sheets.

Norwich and Fulham have both been yo-yo teams in recent seasons – too good for the Championship but serial failures in the Premier League.

Clubs promoted in 2021

Norwich won the 2020/21 Championship with an average attack but a strong defence. Their away form was slightly better than their home form, but that applied to many teams in this unusual season. Star player: Tim Krul. They were even worse in the 2021/22 Premier League than they had been in 2019/20, setting new records for fewest goals scored (22), most goals conceded (84) and greatest number of matches in which they failed to score (22). They were severely handicapped by failing to adequately replace two of their best players – Emiliano Buendia who transferred to Aston Villa and Oliver Skipp who returned to Spurs, his parent club.

Watford were runners-up, thanks mainly to their defence which kept 23 clean sheets and only conceded 30 goals, and their home results were far better than their away ones. Star Player: Ismaila Sarr. Their defence was completely outclassed in the 2021/22 Premier League though, conceding 77 goals and keeping only 4 clean sheets. And their home form was now worse than their away form, conceding 46 goals in their home matches and only keeping one clean sheet at home.

Brentford were promoted via the play-offs, with strong away form and an outstanding goal-scorer in Ivan Toney, who was equally prolific in both home and away matches. Star player: Ivan Toney. In the 2021/22 Premier League their attack in away matches was less successful, but their defence in home matches was stronger.

Tim Krul, Grant Hanley, Max Aarons, Teemu Pukki, Emiliano Buendia and Oliver Skipp of Norwich, and Ivan Toney, Ethan Pinnock and Rico Henry of Brentford had all been in the 2020/21 PFA Championship Team of the Season.

Ivan Toney (Brentford) with 31 goals, Teemu Pukki (Norwich) with 26 and Emiliano Buendia (also Norwich) with 15 had all been among the top ten scorers in the Championship.

Ivan Toney was a newcomer to the Premier League, but Teemu Pukki and Emiliano Buendia had both there once before, scoring 11 and 1 goal respectively in 36 appearances each.

Clubs promoted in 2022

Here I’ll take a look at the three teams promoted in 2022. As we have seen, Championship statistics can often be a poor indicator of Premier League success. Nevertheless, let’s have a look at how they fared on their road to promotion.

Fulham scored a record-breaking 106 goals in winning the 2021/22 Championship. Star player: Aleksandar Mitrovic.

Bournemouth were runners-up, thanks largely to their strong defensive form in away matches, where they kept 13 clean sheets and only conceded 18 goals. Star Player: Dominic Solanke.

Nottingham Forest were promoted via the play-offs. They had been in last place with only one point from their first seven matches before the appointment of Steve Cooper as manager led to a dramatic recovery. Star player: Brennan Johnson.

Tosin Adarabioyo, Antonee Robinson, Harry Wilson and Aleksandar Mitrovic from Fulham, Lloyd Kelly, Philip Billing and Dominic Solanke from Bournemouth and Joe Worrall, Djed Spence and Ryan Yates from Nottingham Forest were all in the 2021/22 PFA Championship Team of the Season.

Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham) with 43 goals, Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth) with 29 and Brennan Johnson (Nottingham Forest) with 16 were all among the top ten scorers in the Championship,

It will be Mitrovic’s fourth Premier League season. He scored 20 goals in his first two, but only 3 in his third.

It will be Solanke’s third. He only scored 4 goals in 53 matches in his first two, the most recent of which was in 2018/19 when he was only 21.

Brennan Johnson will be a Premier League newcomer.

Conclusion

A comparison of the average promoted team’s performances in the Championship and Premier League should act as a wake-up call for anyone expecting players to be as successful in the Premier League as they were in the Championship.

Investment in successful Championship strikers should be treated with caution. Fewer than half of the players who had been among the ten leading scorers in the Championship reached double figures in the Premier League the next season, and the deterioration in their individual performance can often be greater than that of their team. In most cases, however, successful Championship strikers who are new to the Premier League tend to do a little better than those who have been there before without great success.

Clean sheets are also harder to come by, but good goalkeepers from promoted sides can expect to see a significant increase in save points.

tl;dr: Most newly promoted teams and individual players will find life far more difficult in the Premier League than it was in the Championship, so don’t set your expectations too high!

For the earlier versions of this article from previous seasons see Newly Promoted Teams 2010-21 (fantasyfootballscout.co.uk), 20202019201820172016 and 2015.

RedLightning.

RedLightning 2021/22 winners: Opening Day League: Rich Stevens ... Top 10k Any Season: Stephenos Koutentis ... Multiple Top 10k Finishes: Carl Evans ... January to May League: Chris Costa ... The Last Ten: Tiago Ferreira”

12 Comments Post a Comment
  1. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    24 days, 15 hours ago

    Immense bit of research - great work, R.L.! FPL managers without fail always look to the promoted teams for value that so often isn't there. Will they ever learn? Doubt it ... Mitro is still going to be 40% owned in gameweek 1 🙁

    1. diesel001
      • 5 Years
      23 days, 2 hours ago

      I'm interested in Mitrovic this season.

      Looking back at mids and forwards coming into the PL, they usually do well if their per 90 G+A is grater than 0.8 in the previous season.

      2017/18: Mirovic (0.85)
      2018/19: Pukki (0.90), Benrahma (0.89 - interesting as it took West Ham a few seasons to go in for him....), Abraham (0.80), Maupay (0.80)
      2019/20: Bowen (0.76 - interesting because look what he did for West Ham....)
      2020/21: Toney (0.96), A Armstrong (0.86), Buendia (0.81), Pukki (0.80)
      2021/22: Mitrovic (1.18), Solanke (0.8), Wilson (0.75)

      1. diesel001
        • 5 Years
        23 days, 1 hour ago

        You might ask me, what about Mitrovic in 2019/20 when Fulham were in the Championship? Well he dropped to a per 90 G+A of 0.70 so didn't make the cut. And a note of caution over Brennan Johnson (0.60 G+A in 2021/22).

        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          23 days, 1 hour ago

          We'll have to get Mitro because it is gameweek 1 and his ownership will be dangerously high for non owners, but let's be honest: The £6.5m to £7m would be much better spent on a premium defender who plays wing back for the top 4.

          1. The Mentaculus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            23 days, 1 hour ago

            But if that's what you think, why not see it as an opportunity to go against the crowd & get the extra wing back? I mean, a good season for Mitroviv would be something like 12-15 goals, right? Its not like he's going to punish us with weekly hat-tricks

    2. I Must Break You
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      22 days, 18 hours ago

      I may own Mitro (for £6.5, probably?) on opening day if Fulham has a good opening run of fixtures, but probably won’t if not. It will come down to fixtures I think

  2. diesel001
    • 5 Years
    23 days, 2 hours ago

    I wrote some of these points on your article last year (updated for last season)

    92pts or more in Championship: 7 of 10 survived (70%) - two of those failures were Norwich (2019/20 and 2021/22)
    Fewer than 92pts in Championship: Coin toss (14 of 26 survived = 54%)

    It looks like it is worth targeting:

    1) GK from a promoted club that is a good shot-stopper (Samba?)
    2) Defender from a promoted club that is playing OOP (see Dallas and Lundstram in previous seasons)

    You can group the higher scoring mids into three categories:

    1) Already shown they can cut it in the PL (Nolan, Eriksen (since he came in))
    2) Talisman (Adam, Grealish, Pereira, Sarr)
    3) New important signing (Gross, Raphinha)

    Generally, one player from each team will do well each season (last season it was Pukki, Toney, and Dennis).

    To summarise:

    1) GK - look for a good shot stopper
    2) DF - look for a defender playing out of position in midfield or forward
    3) MF - look for signs of class

    1. diesel001
      • 5 Years
      23 days, 2 hours ago

      Obviously we need to see prices, player classifications, pre-season, injuries and transfer activity. But I would be looking at:

      GK - Samba,
      DF - TBC as we need to see how players are classified
      MF - H Wilson
      FW - Mitrovic

  3. The Mentaculus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    23 days, 41 mins ago

    Thanks for this Red Lightning, some excellent statistical research. Kindles my pride as a Leeds fan to see how much we stood out in this context! I tend to view the promoted sides' prospects largely through the lens of how effectively I imagine they can put together quick counter attacks, but this history is a very handy complement

  4. 14th Time Lucky
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    22 days, 19 hours ago

    Great research, I love reading articles like this.

    I wonder how much squad stability comes into performances after promotion?
    Leeds and Sheff Utd did very well their first seasons up with little investment while QPR fairing pretty abysmally after a ridiculous number of signings sticks in my head. But I'm sure there are plenty of examples of squad without investment going straight back down too. I'd imagine losses are at least as important as incomings too; Buendia going was a big hit for Norwich this season.

    I'm definitely interested in Mitrovic this year; he was a trap last time, but with a very conservative manager. The time before he really hit the ground running before tailing off and ultimately being dropped (possibly with his disciplinary record playing a part, and that doesn't seem to be an issue any more). Now he has a positive manager who clearly believes in him and is happy to play direct when needed which should suit him. But I'm worried about the loss of Carvalho and Seri and how that will affect the team.

    Similarly, I'm flirting with the idea of Travers after seeing Bournemouth's stats (I know they'll get nowhere near the same CSs, but I like how they kept a lot of CS last season but far from the best shots conceded - seems a nice combo) but the apparent upheaval in their backline puts me off.

    1. Andy_Social
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      22 days, 18 hours ago

      Fulham last time round was the exemplary model for a side that got rid of most of the players who got them promoted, spent vast sums, never gelled and went back down. Presumably they won't repeat the same format.
      On the other hand Aston Villa got promoted with a side of loanees and had to assemble a new squad - did alright in their case.

      I'd play safe keeperwise - there will be established PL keepers going for 4.5.
      Mitrovic - well I started last season with the shiny new promotee Toney and he didn't get going until late on. Mitro knows the PL but he also failed. I'll stay off him early doors, I think.

  5. Wilko2324
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    22 days, 3 hours ago

    It is worthy of note that Mitrovic numbers for last season in the PL are poor due to off pitch disputes. He fell out with then manager Scott Parker and actually only started 13 games.