Spot the Differential
18 October 2022 520 comments
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Gameweek 12 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is just hours away, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Liverpool, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of five per cent or less at the time of writing.

MATT DOHERTY

The best Spurs players for FPL Double Gameweek 29 and beyond 3
  • FPL ownership: 0.8%
  • Price: £4.6m
  • GW12-16 fixtures: mun | NEW | bou | LIV | LEE

Matt Doherty (£4.6m) has had to bide his time at Tottenham Hotspur this season, as Emerson Royal (£4.9m) has been Antonio Conte’s preferred right wing-back.

However, the Irishman has now started two consecutive Premier League games in the absence of the suspended Brazilian, which has coincided with back-to-back wins and clean sheets.

Asked about the performance of Doherty against Everton, Conte said it was the best he had seen the former Wolverhampton Wanderers man this season.

“I’m really happy for Matthew. He played a good game against Brighton but today he was better. He was good against Brighton but today I saw Matt Doherty of last season. I said to him ‘now finally you are the player I know’.” – Antonio Conte

In his last two appearances, Doherty has frequently got forward to contribute in the final third, racking up three shots in the box.

Now, he is expected to start again against Manchester United in Gameweek 12, before Emerson returns from his ban. However, if Doherty keeps performing at his current level, it’s hard to see the Brazilian breaking back into the starting XI for appealing fixtures against Newcastle United (h) and Bournemouth (a).

Doherty, of course, had the best minutes-per-expected goals (xG) average of any FPL defender after Conte’s appointment last season, and given how sharp he’s looked of late, can provide excellent value.

KEPA ARRIZABALAGA

The best FPL goalkeepers for a Double Gameweek 22 Free Hit 8
  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW12-16 fixtures: bre | MUN | bha | ARS | new

Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.4m) has kept four clean sheets in a row in all competitions, quickly emerging as a key player under Graham Potter.

At Villa Park on Sunday, the Spaniard produced a string of fine saves, including an outstanding reaction stop to deny Danny Ings (£6.7m) what looked a certain goal. In total, he made a whopping seven saves, returning 10 points for his small army of owners.

In his post-match interview, Potter hailed Kepa’s display.

“It was a world-class performance, especially in the first half. We needed Kepa at that point and he made some fantastic saves. I’m really pleased for him, he has had a tough period for us at times but he contributed to the game.” – Graham Potter

Despite only playing in three league matches this season, Kepa has already prevented more goals than any other ‘keeper with his saves. Indeed, his +3.20 xG prevented figure is ahead of closest rivals Alisson (£5.4m, +2.80) and Neto (£4.5m), +2.60).

It is worth noting that Potter is yet to explicitly state Kepa is his number one, but Edouard Mendy’s (£4.9m) dip in form, plus the Spaniard’s distribution and ability to play as an extra defender, suggests it’s his jersey to lose.

Kepa has provided the platform for Chelsea’s five wins a row, and at just £4.4m, is an excellent replacement for those managers wishing to sell Ederson (£5.5m) or Aaron Ramsdale (£4.9m) in Gameweek 12.

ANDREW ROBERTSON

Who is the best third Liverpool asset to own during AFCON?
  • FPL ownership: 4.5%
  • Price: £6.7m
  • GW12-16 fixtures: WHU | nfo | LEE | tot | SOU

Andrew Robertson (£6.7m) returned from injury on Sunday, which coincided with Liverpool’s first clean sheet since Gameweek 6 as they ran out 1-0 winners over Manchester City.

In addition to nullifying Joao Cancelo (£7.3m) down City’s right flank, he also offered a constant threat going forward.

Indeed, among all teammates, only Roberto Firmino (£8.1m) received more passes in the final third (13), with the Scot attempting five crosses and one shot in the box. He also shared corners with James Milner (£4.4m), which offers another route to points in the coming rounds.

The obvious concern is rotation, having just returned from injury. However, Jurgen Klopp will be keen to stick with Sunday’s winning formula and there are potential clean sheets against West Ham United, Nottingham Forest, Leeds United and Southampton before we pause for the winter World Cup.

It’s also worth noting that Liverpool’s next two opponents, West Ham and Forest, sit among the bottom four sides for crosses and chances conceded from their right flank in 2022/23, so there are nice zonal matchups to take advantage of too.

Liverpool’s full-backs have been keen to their success in recent times, and given their upcoming fixtures, Robertson could be an effective under-the-radar pick.

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  1. Disco Stu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Better one week replacement for Foden?

    Mount

    or

    Trossard

    First one to three........Go

    1. LLoris
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Tross

      1. mash
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Trossard

    2. Black Knights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      For one week only, i had the same question and went Trossard, so he can then become Saka or Foden.

    3. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Tross

    4. sulldaddy
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      I went Mount.
      Form good
      Fixture good
      One week rental...good

      1. Disco Stu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Have you seen how most decisions Joey made worked out?????

  2. LLoris
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    A) Play with 9 players
    B) Solanke (-4)
    C) Trippier (-4)
    D) Solanke and Trippier (-8)

    1. mcginnntonic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      D techinally -4

    2. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      D isn't a bad shout as they are both good options until the World Cup. Does depend on who you're taking out though

  3. mash
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Which keeper to start? (Draft game)

    A) Alisson
    B) Neto

  4. House Frey Wedding Planner
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Gomez likely to start for Liverpool in gw12 and 13?

    1. mcginnntonic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      ye

    2. Rainer
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Yep.

  5. Jonny HOW SON?
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Who scores more until the World Cup?

    A) Kane
    B) Salah

    1. mcginnntonic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      both to get 0

    2. Rainer
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Depends if Harry keeps getting the pens or if Mo finally gets a few...

  6. Bubbles1985
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Start Ward or Kepa?

    I have Toney!

    1. mcginnntonic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      danny boy

    2. fantasist
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Kepa

    3. Bigler
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Kepa 100%

    4. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      K man

    5. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      You can't be serious. Never start Ward.

      1. Bubbles1985
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Deadly serious.
        Cleany at the weekend, playing at home.

        Plus I have a gut feeling Toney will notch

  7. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    if I already have trippier, so on a WC who would you bring:

    A Botman
    B dunk

    1. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      B

    2. El Muñeco
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Dunk

    3. sulldaddy
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Dunk

  8. Oggle22
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Ward
    Cucurella Trip Dunk Coufal
    Andreas Trossard Zaha Maddison
    Kane Mitrovic

    Raya Cancelo Halland Martinelli

    Maddison,Coufal and Kane to Salah Trent and Rondon -8?

  9. Shark Team
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Realistic score predictions for those two? :
    Brighton Forest imo 2-0
    Liverpool West Ham imo 2-1

    1. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      3-0
      2-0

    2. Mirror Man
      3 years, 10 months ago

      1-1
      2-3

      1. Captain Beefheart
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Mirror Me.....

    3. The Mentaculus
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      3-0
      2-2

    4. Qaiss
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      0-0
      2-2

    5. I Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      2-1
      3-1

  10. MOZIL
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Who has a higher chance of starting Darwin or Firmino?
    Darwin did poorly last game, maybe Firmino has a higher chance of starting?

    1. fantasist
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      I would've expected Firminho too based on form but rest are saying Nunez starts

    2. Ajay04
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Both

  11. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    When is manutd press conf?

    1. Josh.E
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      martial is out

  12. Lucas8406
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Stick or Twist
    Keep Kane or get Salah

    1. fantasist
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      keep Kane

    2. acidicleo
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      my knee is jerking for kane to salah too!!

      1. Josh.E
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        I sold last night, I feel dirty

  13. TanN
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    GTG right?

    Taken a -4 to bring in Salah and Trossard for KDB and Maddison

    Pope
    Trippier Guehi Mee Cresswell
    Salah Zaha Trossard Andreas
    Mitrovic Toney

    Ward ____not playing____

  14. Skout
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Who to cap this week?
    A) Salah
    B) Tross
    C) Kane
    D) Mitro

    1. fantasist
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Salah

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      A

    3. El Muñeco
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Salah

  15. Downtown
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Nunez or Firminho for 1 week?

    And Robertson or VVD?

    Thanks

    1. fantasist
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Nunez and Robertson

    2. Captain Beefheart
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Toss a coin

  16. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on this WC?

    Guaita (ward)
    Robbo Doherty Webster Botman Guehi
    Salah Mount Andreas (Foden Martinelli)
    Firmino Wilson (Haaland)

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Probably as good as it can be for this GW

  17. kempc23
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Van Dijk to useless Zouma for -4? Will be playing with 10 otherwise.

    1. Firmino
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Huh?

    2. Mirror Man
      3 years, 10 months ago

      This is an original idea and I like it. Have an upvote, sir.

      1. kempc23
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        LOL the other way around obviously!

        1. Mirror Man
          3 years, 10 months ago

          Unoriginal. Upvote removed.

  18. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Toney or Wilson on WC?

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      W

    2. fantasist
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      For one week Wilson. For long term Toney

    3. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      W for me

    4. kempc23
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Toney. Absolutely nailed, talisman, rarely gets injured, scoring well, decent fixtures (apart from City away in 16).

  19. Black Knights
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Thinking of doing that nobby thing where you leave your blankers on the pitch and then get a big rank boost when your playing autosubs come in at the end, but i feel like i'd be annoyed at the red arrows while i wait lol.

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      I prefer to be disappointed early and then slowly claw my way back 😀

    2. Mirror Man
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Awkward when the final rank boost is to an OR lower than the one you entered the gwk with.

      1. Black Knights
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Ha yeah that would be typical wouldn't it, autosub in someone that's missed a penalty. I've never done it before, so i don't think i'm about to start now.

    3. Mario Balofail
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Could be red arrows even with full 11 😉

    4. TKC07
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      With my luck.. auto-sub ins get negative points.. lol (RC, OG)

      1. Black Knights
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah best we don't do it!

  20. Laurel and Vardy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Joe Gomez or Castagne for the next 2 games?

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Gomez

    2. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Gomez

  21. Jengkreng
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Anybody know about Auba...he will start vs brentford?

    1. Black Knights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Nobody knows.

    2. JELLYFISH
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      I think he will but managed minutes just like against Villa

    3. fantasist
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Not 100%. If you have him then play him but don't bring him in

      1. Jengkreng
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        Thanks all

  22. The Count of Monte Cristo
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    WC next GW...

    A) KDB + Jesus --> Salah (c) + Wilson (-4) to play with 10

    B) Above & Maddison --> 8.5m MID (-8) to have full XI?

    1. El Muñeco
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Leave out the Jesus transfer as you'll want him back and do KDB and Maddison out for a -4?

      1. The Count of Monte Cristo
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        That's another possibility but I was thinking of trying to squeeze in Kane on WC, though that will be tough.

  23. Libano
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Should I use free hit or take a -8 to field 11?

    1. kempc23
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      -8 definitely. Or even just a -4 and play with 10, depending on the players. Free hit is way more valuable.

    2. DycheDycheBaby
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Take the hit man

  24. El Muñeco
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Which is better on a WC:

    A - Nunez and Andy Robertson
    B - Kane and Neco Williams (Neco will only play this week otherwise bench fodder)?

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      I'd lean towards B

  25. n14mul
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Worth taking a hit to get rid of zouma this week?

    Wc next week so it's a 1 week punt

    1. The Count of Monte Cristo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Minimal downside, go for it

  26. Josh.E
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Help appreciated! What to do here? 0.3m itb
    I am on (-4), should I take another hit(-8) to upgrade Emerson?

    Pope
    Emerson, Doherty, Trippier, Guéhi
    Salah(C), Bowen, Andreas
    Martial, Firmino

    Subs; Iversen, Haaland, Foden, Cancelo, Martinelli

    1. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      Who would you upgrade him to? Justin looks like the only decent option that's affordable and don't think it's worth an extra hit for

      1. Josh.E
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        fair enough, I just wanted a sure starter

    2. Firminooooo
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      No. Play and pray.

  27. Yozzer
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Anyone going with Trent?

  28. BooYaKasha
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Would you do Son to Salah (C) for a -4?

    1. fantasist
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      If you have 11 playing then yes

  29. tvinsnes
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    A: Maddison to Son
    or
    B: Maddison and Toney/Mitro -> Mount/Tross and Kane for -4

    11 expected starters in both options. Wc used in gw 8.

    Thanks!

    1. BooYaKasha
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      I'm thinking of taking Son out,
      y r you after him?

      1. tvinsnes
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 10 months ago

        For Spurs coverage, explosiveness and avoiding -4.
        Maddison must go, but I dont feel good about transferring out Mitro or Toney.
        Are you suggesting Maddison to Mount and save the cash instead?

        1. BooYaKasha
          • 15 Years
          3 years, 10 months ago

          Bowen is an easy solution for Maddison imop
          I am thinking of a -4 Son to Salah (c) on top 🙂

        2. tvinsnes
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 10 months ago

          Worth to mention I already have Salah. 10 playing and 1 free transfer 4,9 cash
          Ward
          Guehi - Jonny - Dalot - Neco
          Salah - Andreas - Gordon -
          Mitro - Toney

          1. tvinsnes
            • 12 Years
            3 years, 10 months ago

            I have kind of made up my mind to not follow the hype on Bowen.. 🙂
            Thanks for the input!

  30. donbagino
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 10 months ago

    Seems like Gomez may play next 2 games but what are chances he can start more? I mean are there any news about Matip or Konate?

    What do you think of bringing Gomez?

    1. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 10 months ago

      There's a chance he could but depends on the fitness of Konate and Matip.

      I've just now brought in Gomez but only really planning for gw12 and 13. If he's still getting picked beyond that then it's a bonus