Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us a final opportunity to have a look at some more differential options before the World Cup.
With unlimited transfers to follow, these low-owned picks at Crystal Palace, Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton and Hove Albion are one-week punts who we think have the potential to make an impact.
Last week, Yoane Wissa (£5.4m) and Philip Billing (£5.3m) delivered with 12 and seven points respectively, although Pervis Estupinan (£4.5m) underwhelmed at Molineux.
As always, to qualify for Spot the Differential, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.
For a look at some Gameweek 16 punts without the ownership cap, check out Pras’s Pro Pundit piece from Thursday.
MICHAEL OLISE
- FPL ownership: 0.2%
- Price: £5.4m
- GW16 fixture: nfo
Michael Olise (£5.4m) has started four league matches in a row for Crystal Palace, a period which has seen the winger provide a goal and an assist.
In that time, he has racked up nine goal attempts, four shots inside the box and 11 chances created, with his 1.21 expected goal involvement (xGI) figure only marginally behind Wilfried Zaha (£7.5m, 1.31). The latter, of course, is the superior option with penalties in his locker but is £2.1m more expensive.
It’s also worth noting that no Palace player had more touches in the opponent’s half than Olise’s 71 against West Ham in Gameweek 15, or made more final-third passes than his 28.
Now, he visits a Nottingham Forest side that have conceded 30 goals and allowed 82 shots on target in 2022/23. Zonally, he could profit too: the hosts have allowed more crosses (81) from their left flank than any other side bar Bournemouth in their last six matches, which coincided with their move to a 4-3-3 formation.
As a result, assists are perhaps more likely in Gameweek 16, but a second league goal in a row isn’t completely out of the question, given that manager Patrick Vieira recently challenged him to score more goals.
“He can score more. He has to and I expect him to. What is missing is to just give him a little bit of time. Sometimes we forget how young he is [he turns 21 in December]. Coming from the Championship, he has to learn and he still has to learn a lot to be a Premier League player. He had a couple of steps back with injuries, but now he is in a really good place and games will give him the experience and belief to keep growing.” – Patrick Vieira
If Odsonne Edouard (£5.4m) returns at The City Ground following injury, Olise isn’t completely nailed on, yet Vieira seems to be more trusting of the winger of late and he is surely deserving of another start after his match-winning display at West Ham.
Most FPL managers won’t look beyond Zaha for attacking coverage at Palace, but Olise is a cheap midfield option who has the ability to match his pricier teammate in Gameweek 16.
RICHARLISON
- FPL ownership: 0.6%
- Price: £8.4m
- GW16 fixture: LEE
Having returned from injury earlier this week, Richarlison (£8.4m) is in contention to start for Tottenham Hotspur against Leeds United.
Laid low by a calf problem he sustained in Gameweek 11, the Brazilian has been in full team training since Monday and played for 31 minutes against Nottingham Forest in midweek.
Given that we don’t know exactly how fit he is, Richarlison is a risky one-week punt. However, it’s worth noting that Antonio Conte’s post-match words sounded positive regarding his starting prospects.
“I liked the way Richarlison came in and the effort he made showed he has recovered. The same for Deki [Kulusevski] and I hope to have them to start on Saturday. To pick them in the starting XI would be great for us, because it is an important game on Saturday. If we finished this cycle with qualification in the Champions League and a good position in the table it would be in my opinion really good.” – Antonio Conte
But why take the risk? Well, Richarlison has a very favourable fixture in Gameweek 16 against a Leeds side that is often erratic defensively and susceptible to counter-attacks. Indeed, they have conceded 17 goals in their last eight league matches, with a large volume of shots that they conceded in that time falling in Richarlison’s ‘zone’.
As for Spurs, no side in any competition has managed to keep a clean sheet at their stadium so far this season, with their 49.2 minutes per expected goal (xG) at home ranked fifth among all top-flight sides.
Now, the return of Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski (£8.0m) is a major boost, with the former a potentially explosive replacement for those looking to offload Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.9m) or Callum Wilson (£7.5m) if they aren’t fit.
KAORU MITOMA
- FPL ownership: 0.1%
- Price: £4.9m
- GW16 fixture: AVL
Anyone who has watched Brighton and Hove Albion recently will tell you that Kaoru Mitoma (£4.9m) has been one of their star performers.
The tricky winger assisted Leandro Trossard (£7.1m) when Chelsea were heavily beaten at the Amex in Gameweek 14 and was involved in all three goals at Molineux last weekend, scoring a header at the back post.
Then, at the Emirates on Wednesday, Mitoma came on after half-time and made an instant impact, finishing his goal well and nearly assisting Danny Welbeck (£6.5m) with a through ball.
“Mitoma I think has very big potential, and he hasn’t shown all his potential yet. He can improve a lot and he can become a very big player for us.” – Roberto De Zerbi
Just one shot has arrived in the last two Gameweeks, yet he has created four chances and been involved in most of the key incidents. In addition, he has also registered more final-third touches than any other Brighton player bar Solly March (£5.0m), highlighting his involvement.
As for Brighton, Roberto De Zerbi has now recorded three wins in a row in all competitions, a period which has seen his side impress in attack and score 10 goals. Now, Albion are back in action against Aston Villa on Sunday, who will be on a high after their recent 3-1 win over Manchester United in Unai Emery’s first match in charge. However, they have conceded 15 goals in seven league away matches so far in 2022/23.
At this stage, we should point out that a Gameweek 16 start for Mitoma isn’t completely guaranteed, but his recent performances may leave his manager with no option but to include him.
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