The much-anticipated fixture list for the 2023/24 Premier League season was released on Thursday morning.
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) has yet to relaunch, of course, but Fantasy managers have inevitably already started making plans based on the newly available schedule.
And we’re no different, as here we take a look at the potential captaincy dilemmas that may present themselves in the first quarter of 2023/24.
HAALAND PERMA-CAPTAIN?
Erling Haaland will dominate the captaincy discussion most weeks in 2023/24.
The Norwegian topped the Captain Poll on 24 separate occasions last season, with the majority of Fantasy managers only willing to deviate when he was either injured, Manchester City didn’t play at all or if others had a Double Gameweek.
Haaland, of course, blanked in just seven of his 33 Premier League starts in 2022/23, averaging 7.8 points per match overall. He also racked up 11 double-digit hauls, more than any other FPL player.
So, the first question we need to ask ourselves is do we even need two potential captains in our Gameweek 1 squads, given Haaland’s consistency? If the answer is no, it means funds can be spread around, allowing more depth and a stronger 15-man squad, which is appealing.
Further weight is added to that argument given Man City’s opening fixture run: the reigning champions are the only Premier League team who avoid a big-six side in the first seven Gameweeks.
Rotation shouldn’t be an issue, either. The Super Cup will be contested in between Gameweeks 1 and 2 but with Man City playing Burnley in the Friday night game on the opening weekend, there should be plenty of recovery time between matches. Meanwhile, the Champions League doesn’t start until after Gameweek 5.
However, last year’s FPL winner Ali Jahangirov (FPL Gunz) only captained Haaland in 19 of the 38 Gameweeks in 2022/23, with the rounds he bet against the Norwegian detailed below.
You’ll notice this was mostly in Man City away games, where Haaland’s points per start average drops (more on that later).
| Gameweek | Haaland FPL points (fixture) | Captain poll leader (FPL points) | Ali’s captain (FPL points) |
| 1 | 13 (whu) | Salah (12) | Salah (12) |
| 3 | 6 (new) | Salah (8) | Kane (6) |
| 4 | 17 (CRY) | Salah (3) | Jesus (1) |
| 6 | 9 (avl) | Haaland (9) | Kane (9) |
| 8 | 6 (wol) | Haaland (6) | Kane (10) |
| 12 | Blank | Salah (3) | Salah (3) |
| 14 | Injured | Haaland (0) | Salah (7) |
| 15 | 5 (FUL) | De Bruyne (7) | Salah (15) |
| 19 | 2 (che) | Mitrovic (5) | Sterling (1) |
| 22 | 2 (tot) | Rashford (20) | Rashford (20) |
| 24 | 2 (nfo) | Haaland (2) | Rashford (15) |
| 25 | 10 (bou) | Salah (11) | Saka (15) |
| 26 | 4 (NEW) | Haaland (4) | Saka (2) |
| 27 | 6 (cry) | Toney (13) | Mitoma (12) |
| 28 | Blank | Kane (6) | Saka (18) |
| 29 | Injured | Rashford (12) | Maddison (4) |
| 32 | Blank | Salah (7) | Salah (7) |
| 36 | 7 (eve) | Isak (7) | Wilson (24) |
| 38 | 0 (bre, unused sub) | Salah (5) | Salah (5) |
HAALAND + RASHFORD CAPTAINCY ROTATION?
If you did want to bet against Haaland in away fixtures at the start of 2023/24, Marcus Rashford is a strong captaincy alternative in the opening weeks.
The duo were the top-scoring players in home matches last season, racking up 161 and 143 points respectively. If you switch the armband between the pair, you’ll have a captain who plays at home each time.
| All home matches 22/23 | All away matches 22/23 | |||
| Haaland | Rashford | Haaland | Rashford | |
| Points per start | 9.7 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.6 |
| Goals | 22 | 13 | 14 | 4 |
| Assists | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Bonus points | 24 | 19 | 16 | 2 |
| Blanks when starting | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| Non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) per 90 minutes | 1.00 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.37 |
The visit of Newcastle United in Gameweek 2 is the biggest immediate test for the Haaland perma-captaincy.
Man City did score two goals against last season’s joint-best Premier League defence at the Etihad Stadium in 2022/23, yet Mohamed Salah at home to Bournemouth is potentially the superior captain pick. The fact Pep Guardiola’s troops will have been in Super Cup action just a few days before adds further weight to that theory.
Then, in addition to Gameweek 8 (ars), there could be another opportunity to bet against Haaland captaincy in Gameweek 10 (mun), when Liverpool and Arsenal host Nottingham Forest and Sheffield United respectively. That could see Bukayo Saka and Mohamed Salah as the go-to options that week.
Betting against Haaland is a scary prospect given his consistency and effective ownership each week, and we wouldn’t advise doing it very often, but there should be opportunities to deviate next season, it’s just about picking the right moment.
NOTES
- Fantasy managers could have a captain against a newly promoted club in five of the first six Gameweeks using just Man City, Spurs and Man Utd assets, with Gameweek 2 being the exception.
- Nottingham Forest had the worst away record in the Premier League last season, claiming just eight points. Their first four opponents on the road are Arsenal (GW1), Man Utd (GW3), Chelsea (GW4) and Man City (GW6), for those wishing to target them.
- Salah failed to score home or away against Chelsea, Bournemouth and Newcastle last season, Liverpool’s first three opponents of 2023/24. He did, however, claim three assists against the Magpies.
Let us know below what your own initial plans are for captaincy in the first few months.
10 months, 27 days agoCheers Tom. Still feels a little early for me to get into serious planning mode but my first reaction is that I'd probably look for Haaland alternatives only for NEW & ars, especially given that the first 2 away games are against promoted sides