Frisking the Fixtures returns as we take a look at the teams and players with attractive medium-term fixture runs from Gameweek 18. An overview of those with less appealing matches will follow later.
Such words should be used alongside our look at recovery times over Christmas. At this chaotic time of year, it’s not just about who teams are against but also how quickly it happens.
Our colour-coded Season Ticker is the primary source for this article. Using this tool as a Premium Member, you can sort by difficulty, rank by attacking and defensive potential or find budget rotation pairings.
You can even set your own difficulty ratings, should you disagree with ours. There is a tutorial on the Season Ticker here.
SEASON TICKER OVERVIEW
BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION
Sunday’s defeat at Arsenal was the first Brighton league score to involve a ‘nil’ this season and two conclusions can be drawn from this. Firstly, the Seagulls are very good at scoring goals – they’d netted in every match since Gameweek 24 of last time. Fifth for total attempts (254), they currently sit second for shots on target (104).
However, it also means their defence should be avoided by FPL managers. Brighton and Luton Town are the two sides still on zero clean sheets, with Lewis Dunk (£5.0m) their only goalkeeper or defender to have started more than 10 of 17 matches.
There are similar rotation fears further up the pitch, as Pascal Gross (£6.4m) is the sole name above 12 starts. Simon Adingra (£5.0m) has begun the last 10 but is soon off to AFCON while Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m) departs for the Asian Cup. In theory, this should further secure Gross’ game time and increase minutes for ultra-differential midfielders like Facundo Buonanotte (£4.7m) and Jack Hinshelwood (£4.5m).
But the return of Danny Welbeck (£5.7m) up front adds competition to Evan Ferguson (£6.0m) and Joao Pedro (£5.4m).
MANCHESTER UNITED
The Man United defence is a strange paradox. Gameweek 17’s 0-0 at Anfield made it four clean sheets from seven and puts them among the best overall, yet they’ve conceded the joint-third most shots (271) over the campaign. No team has a bigger overachievement when it comes to expected goals conceded (xGC) delta (-8.40).
Above: The teams with most xGC delta (actual goals, minus expected goals)
So it’s hard to truly say whether Andre Onana (£4.8m) – FPL’s number two goalkeeper – is worth purchasing, now that Harry Maguire‘s (£4.3m) groin injury has ruled out a cheap route to defensive coverage.
Not only that, playmaker Bruno Fernandes (£8.2m) has fine underlying statistics that aren’t translating into points. He’s the league leader for chances created (47) and eighth for shots (42) but is only on three goals, three assists and 64 points. Joint 21st among midfielders.
Just four points behind is Scott McTominay (£4.9m) and his five goals from the last 10 matches. Scroll further down and you’ll eventually find the struggles of Marcus Rashford (£8.5m). In over four million Gameweek 1 squads, he’s stuck on two goals and two assists. Only the bravest managers would invest in Man United options, despite this positive run of fixtures.
CHELSEA
A hit-and-miss start to Mauricio Pochettino’s reign is about to welcome star summer signing Christopher Nkunku (£7.3m) into proceedings. We looked into his FPL prospects during pre-season.
You’d think that the brilliant form of bargain asset Cole Palmer (£5.6m) will see him avoid festive rotation. Six goals and four assists since his first start in Gameweek 7, giving him the second-highest expected goal involvement (xGI, 8.70) throughout this period. It betters the likes of Erling Haaland (£13.9m), Ollie Watkins (£8.6m) and Son Heung-min (£9.8m).
Above: Player xGI tallies between Gameweeks 7 and 17
Colleague Raheem Sterling (£7.1m) still edges him for overall points thanks to a steady supply of attacking returns. It’ll be interesting to see how Nkunku is introduced over these promising fixtures.
At the back, Saturday was the Blues’ first clean sheet since Gameweek 7. If managers still want to pursue fixtures over form, the next issue is knowing which defender to get. But new injuries to Robert Sanchez (£4.7m), Marc Cucurella (£4.8m) and Reece James (£5.4m) have seemingly paved the way for goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic (£4.5m) and defender Levi Colwill (£4.6m) to play most minutes. Possibly even Malo Gusto (£4.1m).
FULHAM
Across west London, Fulham have two recent 5-0 victories and were competitive at Newcastle United until Raul Jimenez‘s (£5.3m) baffling challenge brought a straight red card.
The Mexican is suspended until Gameweek 20, disappointing the 185,000 that had just bought him in the hope that he’ coul cover Blank Gameweek 18. Here, Marco Silva’s side will host Burnley and – with Gameweek 23 being a swift fixture reversal – face them again soon after.
Willian (£5.3m) and Andreas Pereira (£5.3m) have known attacking qualities, with Bernd Leno (£4.8m) currently the game’s highest-scoring goalkeeper. He’s added five clean sheets to the second-most saves (74).
ASTON VILLA
Meanwhile, another team boosted by a quick reunion is Aston Villa, who face Sheffield United twice in the next half-dozen. Not that this high-flying team needs any assistance right now. They’re one point behind leaders Arsenal with a solid chance of being top on Christmas Day.
Their run of 15 consecutive home wins is brilliant, also combining the second-most goals (37) with allowing the third-fewest shots (173). Up front, 4.5 million already own the latest player to reach 100 FPL points in Watkins. He has 18 returns from 17 matches and could be the leading captaincy choice for Gameweek 18, with Haaland absent and Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) against Arsenal.
Yet a couple of Villa-related nuisances have recently occurred. Matty Cash (£4.7m) – still the number one defender for various attacking stats – has lost his starting XI security after three benchings in a row. And it’s similar for Moussa Diaby (£6.7m), with Leon Bailey (£5.6m) seemingly in favour because of returns in four successive games.
In fact, Pau Torres (£4.7m) has overtaken Cash as Villa’s leading defender. He’s scored two goals and many potential transfers will hinge on what Unai Emery has to say about his yellow-flag knock.
ALSO CONSIDER
Elsewhere, we still await news on Bournemouth’s abandoned match with Luton. If that needs replaying during a nearby Gameweek, the subsequent double will boost them up the Season Ticker.
Both the team and Dominic Solanke (£6.8m) are in great form. Five wins between Gameweeks 10 and 16, accompanied by three clean sheets and an average of over two goals per match. The forward netted for the ninth time against the Hatters, before it was called off in the 65th minute.
At Spurs, flying right-back Pedro Porro (£5.5m) is starting to feel essential. He’s blanked just once in six matches, assisting four times. No defender has had more attempts (28) this season. Also in form are team-mates Dejan Kulusevski (£7.1m) and Richarlison (£6.7m), whose appeal should increase once Son goes off to the Asian Cup in Gameweek 21.
Sheffield United players are low-owned for a reason. Their team is bottom of the league with the worst defence and cheap enabler Cameron Archer (£4.6m) probably only gets considered for Luton at home in Gameweek 19.
Finally, Arsenal’s fixture run isn’t hampered too much by the two Liverpool meetings. After all, they’re a high-scoring team that’s top of the league, also becoming the first defence to successfully nullify Brighton.
