Frisking the Fixtures continues by looking at the teams and players with unattractive medium-term fixture runs from Gameweek 18. The most appealing ones are featured in a separate piece here.
Again, this should be used alongside our look at recovery times over Christmas. At this chaotic time of year, it’s not just about who teams are against but also how quickly it happens.
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SEASON TICKER OVERVIEW
BRENTFORD
The placement of Brentford and Manchester City is purely because of their Blank Gameweek 18, as the Bees rank 11th for the fixtures between Gameweeks 19 and 23.
There’s not much FPL interest in Thomas Frank’s outfit, now Bryan Mbeumo (£6.9m) has been ruled out until March with an ankle injury. What’s left over is Yoane Wissa (£5.8m) – a forward with 16 starts but just one goal since Gameweek 2 – and a defence whose lower-end tally of three clean sheets at least has a chance of modest boost in the upcoming weeks.
Above: Teams with the most big chances so far
Then again, Brentford have conceded the sixth-fewest big chances (34) whilst having 46 for themselves and 30.22 expected goals (xG). Both are more than Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton and Hove Albion.
Furthermore, there’ll be some interest in Ivan Toney (£7.9m) once his eight-month ban ends in Gameweek 21. Perhaps pricey at Brentford, he’s also being linked with moves to some of the top clubs.
MANCHESTER CITY
Not that Man City need a top forward – they already possess the best one around, Erling Haaland (£13.9m). His foot problem has caused FPL uproar over Gameweeks 16 and 17 but, once back from the Club World Cup, the 1.6 million recent sellers need a re-purchase plan before he faces Sheffield United and Burnley.
The champions rank sixth on the ticker between Gameweeks 19 to 23, again strongly hampered by an initial blank that’s made Julian Alvarez (£6.9m) the most-sold name after Haaland.
Recent form is poor, winning just one of their latest half-dozen league games to slip five points behind Arsenal. Two clean sheets in 15 matches is an even more shocking stat – no side has conceded fewer attempts (137) or shots inside the box (88) but they always find a way to let a goal in.
But Kevin De Bruyne (£10.2m) is back in training. He and Phil Foden (£7.6m) are needed if they intend to replicate last season’s 12-in-a-row between Gameweeks 25 and 37. They could be good replacements once Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) and Son Heung-min (£9.8m) depart for AFCON and Asian Cup duty.
LIVERPOOL
It’ll be a blow for Salah’s 5.6 million owners to lose such a superb FPL asset from Gameweek 21. He’s currently this season’s top-scoring player with 130 points, thanks to 19 returns and being second-best for attempts (53) and shots on target (24).
With such fixtures, those with Konstantinos Tsimikas (£4.9m) may also feel it’s nearly time to sell, knowing Andrew Robertson‘s (£6.4m) shoulder is set for a January recovery. Liverpool are punished here for Gameweek 23 being a quick reverse of Gameweek 18’s matches. On both occasions, they face league leaders Arsenal although the Reds are narrowly behind in second place.
As the team with most shots (314) and second-highest xG (35.01), there’s a fixture-proof element to Darwin Nunez (£7.6m). It’s just that the goalless-in-seven Uruguayan continues to defy his strong underlying stats, becoming a bit of a joke in the process. Managers will be looking for any reason to sell.
Meanwhile, recent form has thrust Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.2m) past Kieran Trippier (£6.9m) as the number one defender. With a position-leading 11 big chances created, his last five outings have produced two goals, two assists and two clean sheets.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST
Steve Cooper is reportedly under pressure at Nottingham Forest and this fixture run won’t boost his hopes. Two meetings with in-form Bournemouth suddenly look tough, with Newcastle United and Arsenal in between.
Their 18.83 xG is the fourth-lowest of all teams and, with Taiwo Awoniyi (£6.3m) hurt for a while, Forest have been using midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White (£5.7m) up front. It hasn’t brought any joy, with Cooper’s side netting once in four matches.
At the back, Harry Toffolo (£4.4m) has started the last seven matches and been productive. One goal, two assists and the third-best expected goal involvement (xGI, 2.03) amongst defenders.
Above: The xGI of defenders between Gameweeks 11 and 17
However, they can’t be relied upon for clean sheets and well-owned goalkeeper Matt Turner (£3.9m) could swiftly be returning to the bench. According to manager Cooper, the way Turner let in Spurs’ second goal last week “is not something that should happen at this level”.
ALSO CONSIDER
Elsewhere, Eberechi Eze (£6.0m) is back for Crystal Palace. But they’ve won only one of their last 10 league matches and clean sheets seem to have stopped, meaning those still with Joachim Andersen (£5.0m) and Marc Guehi (£4.7m) may want to get rid. Goalkeeper Sam Johnstone (£4.6m) has an injured calf.
Fellow shot-stopper Alphonse Areola (£4.2m) – owned by 62% of the top 100k – is back from a wrist problem but had to watch from the bench as West Ham United kept just their second clean sheet of the season. Whether he regains his starting spot over Lukasz Fabianski (£4.2m) remains to be seen.
Those with Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) and Mohammed Kudus (£6.7m) may choose to keep such in-form midfielders for this run. The former scored in seven successive away games but also has three at home, whilst the latter netted twice against Wolverhampton Wanderers for a 16-point haul.
Now eased into David Moyes’ first XI, Kudus is starting every league match, accumulating four goals and three assists from his last seven. The only player to have more points (51) in this period is Alexander-Arnold.
Finally, another goalkeeper to frustrate FPL managers is Jordan Pickford (£4.4m). Owned by many during Everton’s appealing early season run, he was soon ditched but is now delivering the good with four consecutive clean sheets. The fixtures are about to turn very nasty, though.
