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25 January 2024 113 comments
FPL Virgin FPL Virgin
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With the recent announcement of Double Gameweek 25 for Manchester City and Brentford, we’re now entering chip season and many Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers may be thinking about soon selecting their Triple Captain.

It’s often said in the FPL community that it’s a bit of a boring chip. Simply wait for one of your go-to premiums like Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) or Erling Haaland (£13.9m) to get two reasonable fixtures in a Double Gameweek and, instead of regularly captaincy, you join the masses in x3 captaining them. 

Something similar happened two seasons ago when over one million – a record – Triple Captain chips were placed on Salah in Double Gameweek 26 as he faced Norwich City and Leeds United. While this is a perfectly viable tactic, it has one sizeable drawback.

When you’re doing the same thing as everyone else, this precious, single-use chip loses its power to make a real difference to your season and overall rank. It’s fine for consolidating a good rank and those who believe ‘slow and steady wins the race’ in FPL, but, if it’s the same player who every well-informed and engaged FPL manager is going with, how much do you really stand to gain?

There is another way. 

A SEASON-CHANGER

FA Cup notes: Bowen's injury, Pep on De Bruyne + Foden

In last season’s Double Gameweek 36, Callum Wilson (£7.8m) had 18.62% in the captaincy poll while team-mate Alexander Isak (£7.6m) was vastly more popular with 38.57%. Wilson scored 24 points. Isak scored seven.

The same Gameweek of two seasons ago had Kevin De Bruyne (£10.5m) on 18.56% behind runaway leader Salah’s 50.17%. As you may remember, the Belgian scored 30 points across the two games – including four goals against Wolverhampton Wanderers – while Salah racked up a paltry three.

As one of those KDB triple captainers, I know how transformative this can be for your overall rank. Especially during the tail-end of the season when it is so difficult to make any kind of breakthrough. I remember entering the top 20k from an abysmal seven-figure rank that year.

Therefore, in my opinion, Triple Captain is not a dull chip to be played in a perfunctory manner as part of a herd. It’s a truly exciting and immensely powerful one. And if you’re struggling rank-wise, it can be a secret weapon that scorches a path through mini-leagues and flips the script on a bad season.

RISK VS REWARD

FPL Gameweek 36 Scout Picks: Newcastle triple-up includes Wilson

This is why I’m advocating having a different mindset towards the triple captaincy. Don’t play it when everyone else is playing it. You only get to use this chip once in 38 Gameweeks, so try to maximise its potential. Look for alternative opportunities like we’ve seen with Wilson and De Bruyne over recent campaigns.

That’s when the chip is at its strongest – when masses pile onto a popular Double Gameweek captain, who then flops while you successfully triple-down on a more differential option who still has FPL pedigree. Sure, there is risk involved, but the rewards (90 points versus 9 points; 72 points versus 21 points) can be huge.

So when you decide to play your Triple Captain chip, ask yourself this: how much do I stand to gain by captaining someone like Haaland in Double Gameweek 25 when every manager and their dog is doing the same?

Think of De Bruyne in 2021/22, remember Wilson in 2022/23. Roll the dice when a double comes around by going for the less obvious pick who can blast your team into the stratosphere!



113 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. FPL Marc
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Thanks for that!

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Thank you so much for publishing Marc. I appreciate you taking the time. Hopefully this helps a few people ahead of the upcoming doubles!

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Brilliant picture choice by the way!

  2. El Presidente
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Good point and maybe this is the season to go for it with so many lost down the ranks...

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I think it is. Ranks are rammed and packed tight. Look at FPL Pricey. Several green arrows but all he has done is dance around the same OR and gone nowhere.

    2. circusmonkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      The ranks are the same every week of every year. One person is first, one is second and so on. Who are the non people occupying the higher ranks? Don't they count? Do they not deserve it because they don't belong to some imagined group that to you, does count?

  3. EffPeeEll
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    no need to look further than GW25 IMO.
    Straight out shoot-out between KDB and Mo.
    I reckon Mo will be back.

    1. EffPeeEll
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      meant Haaland
      although KDB is a very viable option

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        The point is don't do what everyone else is doing with the TC. Look for the opportunity where an FPL asset with pedigree has a double but is being overlooked.

        Getting extra captaincy points on the same player everyone is captaining won't do much.

        You need to gamble on the popular captain blanking while tripling up on the points from a differential coming in.

        1. Baps Hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Everyone did it when KdB hauled. Others chose Salah, choosing KdB was the best move also with the help of hindsight. That was good, if not the best dgw over any normal gw to use it. TC during dgw has higher success potential than dgw in any normal gw. Later in the season you also know better how much you need to gamble or if safe play is enough (it almost never is).

          1. Baps Hunter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            Sorry, I misread your message.

        2. InitioH
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          All of this is great... IF the big popular choice doesn't perform a la Salah last season.
          But if they do, then this tactic suddenly becomes a case of I must find something that catches up the lost rank.

          It is the same as the captaincy shout every week and taking the riskier option of going against the crowd, and I do think it does come to a stage of the season where you have to be a little more risk taking with captaincy if you want to increase rank by any great margin. But the same is always true, if the popular / common sense pick bangs then the tactic really doesn't look good. We don't hear much from the people who went with the risky option and it didn't come off and there are a lot more of those.
          Just a thought.

    2. Lifeariley
      • 15 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Well written article Virg and loving the meat is murder quote - disagree tho - differentials are that for a reason, triple cap the player you think will get the most points in a game week - simples. I've been lucky with TC so far - Salahs 28 points, Sanchez 25 the highlights (also had KDB cap for the 4 against Wolves but don't remember if it was triple)

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Thanks m8. Gotta love a bit of The Smiths.

        Don't forget, we're talking about a one gameweek chip. Like GW38, it's time to gamble because anything can in a single gameweek. The person who usually scores the most points doesn't always in just 2 fixtures.

      2. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Fish is meat also. If and when I kill a predator fish, I save a lot of smaller fish that it would have eaten later. "Murder" is part of a gift of preserving life!

        1. Baps Hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          And if fishing is murder, there should be a law that prohibits fish and birds eating each other.

  4. Tonyawesome69
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    TC on a player you think will score the most points in that GW. Feels like over thinking worrying about others

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      When Magnus Carlsen used to play FPL he would "own both but captain the other". He'd own the popular captain pick but captain the viable differential. He had huge success with this strategy. I'm basically saying you should try this just the once... in a double with your TC. Why play safe with a chip you can only use once in a very very long season?

      1. Blueberg
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        You sort of double the risk there though?

        If you go in to a double where 90% of people triple captain haaland, you captain someone else (but still have haaland) if haaland goes wild then it is the equivalent of not owning him.

        I agree your theory makes sense, but I would feel safer using this strategy in a double week where there is not a stand out captain option like haaland that a number of people are triple captaining, maybe a double where ciry or liverpool arent doubling. Then you can still captain haaland in the double week everyone triple captains him, then you are only potentially missing out on that haul once, not twice.

        Probably haven't worded that great, but it makes sense in my head.

        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          No, I totally get what you're saying. And you're right.

          I would advocate captaining the guy who 90% are triple captaining earlier on -- let's say in the GW25 double. Because a lot of times this strategy has been successful is during the later doubles towards the end of the season, say around gameweek 36. A lot of TC chips have gone by then and you are less exposed by backing the differential.

          1. Blueberg
            • 10 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            Got it. I agree. You also have the option (if things dont pan out with a later double) to play it week 38 as a last hurrah, where you may have team leaks, will know who has something to play for, usually a high scoring week.

            Plus I agree dgw is best as it increases the odds of points, but there's always a chance of injury, red card, or a rest.

            Options.

            1. FPL Virgin
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              1 year, 10 months ago

              Another great point! We should co-write the next article! 😉

            2. Baps Hunter
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              1 year, 10 months ago

              That is the reasoning to play FH or even WC 38.

        2. shorey143
          • 4 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Get it mate and spot on. Going against everyone with a TC isn’t much different than C a differential. Can literally be a missive green as it could be a massive red so team dependant

        3. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Great point, by the way.

      2. Tonyawesome69
        • 6 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        I'm not advocating to TC the most popular though, I'm stating pick who you think to will score the most points to "maximise its potential"

        1. Baps Hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          I remember consensus here: "If you are protecting your OR TC Salah, if chasing then TC KdB". Points difference was huge and I still smile remembering the result or looking my OR that season. Also there was one huge coin toss earlier inbthe season when Salah was the most TC'd but many chose Mane who got injured. It was basically season defining loss for most of them.

  5. EffPeeEll
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    I could see GW25 atracting wildcards, TC and Free Hit and Bench boost chips.
    to varying degrees of course.
    Mo and Haaland gw25 TC fits the carlsen approach.

  6. EffPeeEll
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Solanke could be rested at HT -boyos getting mullered

    1. EffPeeEll
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      subbed HT -boyos train wreck

  7. Bennerman
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    It's a straightforward numbers game – you TC the player with most probability of scoring the most points, it really is that simple.

    Yes, of course it might or might not pan out that way in a single instance, like all things based on probability.

    But this fundamentally is all there is to it.

    Of course, you can go for a smaller probability and cross your fingers that the larger probability doesn't happen and your smaller probability does, therefore giving you the advantage – in that particular instance.

    But mathematical law says that is less likely to happen, and certainly over time – as probability asserts itself – it is the less successful strategy.

    There is no mystery here.

    1. EffPeeEll
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I reckon most of us will earmark either Haaland or Mo as a TC option when they have a good DGW.
      GW 26 fits the bill for me fitness allowing. Mo normally gets a full 180 whereas Haaland may not but fitness concerns prevail currently.
      If you're chasing it could be worth gambling on a differential somewhere down the pike.
      GW34 is a bgw and a double, with gw37 a rotation risk potentially?

      1. EffPeeEll
        • 5 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        gw25*

    2. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Bennerman!

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        I recognise your grav from the absolutely amazing TV show Knightmare.

      2. Bennerman
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Greetings, chivalrous one.

        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          🙂

    3. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      You may want to re-read the logic of my argument.

      This has cleared worked and been massively successful with KDB and Wilson in the last 2 seasons. Why? Because in a single gameweek, anomalies happen and the smaller probability stuff happens. The triple captaincy chip is not a season-long or several gameweeks long chip. It's single use plastic. It's one and done. So you gotta try and spike one of those anomalies.

      1. Bennerman
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        I don't need to re-read it, no, I understand what you are saying.

        I covered it in my fourth sentence.

    4. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      There actually is. If you save your TC to later stages in the season and you aim to win your ml or get into top 10k, you may be forced to take bigger risks. Since if play it safe like everyone else, you may have absolutely zero chance to get as big green arrow as you would need.

  8. shorey143
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    So I transferred Jota in Sunday night, then took a -4 last night for Diaz. At least I have some time to see who scores at the weekend before I take a -8. These long game weeks are helpful to really assess form and injuries. The midweek games followed by weekend matches are a nightmare.

    1. EffPeeEll
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      why xfer so early though?
      any crap can occur between now and sunday

      1. shorey143
        • 4 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        The great thing is I get to see who scores for Liverpool in the cup at the weekend and then have time before the next deadline to swap back to Jota if needed. Or maybe Elliott

  9. shorey143
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    This article is quite refreshing and thought provoking. Kudos

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Thank you, Kind Sir! 🙂

  10. Hairy Potter
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    If leading then TC Payet, if chasing go for Andy Carroll.

    1. shorey143
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Play safe and captain Dicks. We’re guaranteed a penalty next match.

    2. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Perfect TL:DR summary.

  11. Hairy Potter
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    On the Isak vs Wilson choice, Howe decided to change how he would deploy Isak. This meant that Wilson, who was normally second choice, got the nod up front. Even then, Wilson was about to be subbed off when the second penalty at Leeds was given. Had he been off then Isak would have taken the pen.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Wilson's numbers were superior to Isak's. If people had thought logically about Wilson's X minutes, they would have captained him instead.

  12. have you seen cyan
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    has anyone seen the movie tusk?

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Is it as good as it sounds?

      1. have you seen cyan
        • 6 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        its a very weird film lol

        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          I think I have to watch it now. It doesn't seem like a Kevin Smith film

          https://youtu.be/trTTjvPCLJQ?feature=shared

          1. have you seen cyan
            • 6 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            ha, I'm glad I inspired someone to watch it lol

  13. d1g2w3
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    I agree with the article. Playing the same game as everyone else is not going to win.

    In poker, if you play the same way as other people, then you are going to win and lose the same amount as everyone else.

    Finding an edge is important, you have to go for the win and accept that sometimes you lose.

    If you think of the odds you stated on captain choice

    50% on Salah (Evans)
    20% on KDB (4-1)

    Would you say that's the odds of either one of them getting higher than they other. No, probably not.

    I would say, it's more likely Salah is 60% chance to outscore KDB to 40% that season. That means IF KDB outscore Salah, you were getting odds of 4-1 for a 2-1 shot.

    When you look at it like this, then it makes sense

    You could even look at the betting odds of player scoring and look at the captain choice and see which has the biggest differentiating edge and choose your captain choice.

    If KDB is 4-1 captain choice but he's Evans on both games to score which is the same as Salah, it's a no brainer, KDB giving the best value captain choice.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      A guy from my work who is exceptional at FPL turned out to be a professional poker player.

      1. d1g2w3
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Yeah, I'm not exceptional at poker, used to play it a lot before I moved to the States. I have kids now so hard to play.

        I didn't really think about odds for this game, but the article made me think when you were showing percentages and made me think about finding edges. Finding odds that are being offered better than what you would normally get.

        They don't always work out, but if they would have giving you a bigger advantages more than not, then it's better to do it.

  14. Capocannonieri
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    I remember the Mane vs Salah question for 3C

    (1) Mane pickers (me) are still traumatized and scarred by the kid pulling a 1-pointer and a early injury. Instead of 180 minutes of trills, got 8 minutes and a Gameweek from hell.

    (2) Salah (if I remember correctly) went on a rampage. Gave his backers 48 or 60 points. I lost my Mini League by the difference of this gameweek. I had to look at the smiling, grinning, and smug faces of the Salah 3C people at work. If I were not a Stoic, Catholic man, there was non-zero chance of me going Postal that awful DWG.

    The next year, I actually 3C on Salah while my rivals Bench Boosted. Salah gave us 70 points or something. The Bench Boosters where the ones on self-harm watch.

    1. d1g2w3
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I think the poster is saying though, if nearly all people TC, then you should try and find differentiator.

      I would assume if the types of chips being used were spread (only 50% TC) then I would assume using the TC is differential enough.

      FPL virgin could confirm though.

      I think he's saying, try and break from the norm if there's value. Don't just TC Bowen because nobody else will, as there's not data to support the choice

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Or maybe not. Salah was slightly better choice even before and if the best choice is the best even with the help of hindsight, using TC to worse choice isn't successful way to differentiate.

        1. d1g2w3
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          He's not saying worst choice. He's saying, given a high majority is picking the main choice, if there is someone close to compatible and they are not being chosen, then the risk reward is valuable.

          I.e. you gain nothing by the obvious choice but gain everything with the not obvious choice

          1. EffPeeEll
            • 5 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            A bit like all the contented creators captaining Saka last week.
            I.e. you gain nothing by the obvious choice

            1. FPL Virgin
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              1 year, 10 months ago

              Exactly.

              1. d1g2w3
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 16 Years
                1 year, 10 months ago

                I think the Saka Palmer was slightly different as that week there were lots of different captains.

                I think it's also worth mentioning, it's not about "always picking the other", it's about when there are opportunities close to the "Obvious choice", when the obvious choice is captained by the masses

          2. Bennerman
            • 7 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            Though you don't 'gain nothing', of course, if the obvious choice scores a ton of points. You gain on all those who didn't take the obvious choice.

            This is the logical counterpoint to the article's point, which boils down to 'you can get an advantage if you triple captain someone who not too many people have, and they do well, and the player that lots of people triple captained doesn't'.

            Which is true, if not exactly rocket science.

            But that has to be considered alongside the fact that you can of course find yourself at a large disadvantage if the player you triple captain who not many people have does poorly, and the player that lots of people have triple captained does well.

            1. d1g2w3
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              1 year, 10 months ago

              Yes agree,

              Couple points, if it's obvious choice but there's still lots of people not choosing them, then it doesn't make sense

              If there's a close second and barely anyone chooses the close second, I think that's the opportunity.

              If you go and pick trippier against City vs Salah against SHU then your a dumbass lol

    2. g40steve
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Sanchez TC was sweet spot for me

  15. have you seen cyan
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    I spunked my TC last week on Toney. Sad noises. Really thought he would get a brae or hatti. I should have just capped Jota or Palmer.

    1. EffPeeEll
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      no good crying over spilt milk -oops

      1. have you seen cyan
        • 6 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        I'm not crying, I'm just responding to the article.

        thanks for the pointless reply though.

        1. EffPeeEll
          • 5 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          twas a play on words -humour not your thing?

    2. Pipermaru
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Toney/Jota GW 21 are great examples of how you should use TC chip in my opinion...explosive, low-owned, solid player in a week with no obvious captain, I would do it myself if i didn't play WC last gameweek.

  16. Fast Hands Phil The Keeper
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Should the approach vary depending on:
    1. whether I'm trying to protect my League position/OR or seeking to improve it and
    2. the 'obviousness' of the first choice pick ? (Recalling Salah in 2021/22 I think it was; 'The top-scoring attacking player against the two worst defences in the League')

  17. Pipermaru
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    I wholeheartedly support FPL Virgin's point of view.

    Guys, you seem to don't recognize that we don't play in a vacuum, we compete against others. Same points have differnet value because of ownership, simple example: GW21 Porro and Alisson got me 6 points each, yet former equals 78k rise in OR, latter 123k rise, how? Same points, different weight of it.

    More points isn't always better, would you rather have 60 points in a GW with 30pts avg or 99 points with 92 avg? Absolute values doesn't really work in FPL, 2400 points last season gave you 50k OR, this year 2500 may put you outside 1m OR etc. Using TC on a player with anything between 50-90% is a "waste", even if he smashes it your gain will be minimal. Sure you can do it but it is far from optimal use of the chip. In my opinion it is much better to "just" captain most popular player in (for example) GW25 and then look for solid but different option in other DGW or even in a single. Not talking about fringe players but someone like Toney, Wilson, Maddison etc can work wonders.

    There was a guy some 5-6 years ago with some statistical/mathemathical background who explained that here on forum, shame I didn't make screenshot of his post, it was much clearer that my incoherent mumbling 🙂

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      At the end of the season, all points are added together and the only thing that counts is their cumulative "number". Another thing is the risk of getting less or more than Average Joe.

    2. Bennerman
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      By the end of any gameweek, there will be a player who has scored the most points. Your goal is to have captained (or triple-captained) that specific player.

      Your next aim is to have played the next 10 highest scorers (position-allowing).

      That is the blueprint for a perfect gameweek.

      That blueprint does not change depending on what other people do. That blueprint cannot be beaten by any player (only equalled).

      Of course, it is extremely unlikely to hit the perfect blueprint, but the goal thereafter is to come as close as possible to it – and with it as much of an a

      When talking about how many points and advantage a captain gets you, you must also consider your other 10 points-scorers for a holistic view.

      1. Baps Hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        I give armband to the player who has the highest xP. I don't regret after the gw not giving armband to Gabriel who was just lucky to haul jus that week.

        1. Bennerman
          • 7 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          I agree, that is the point I have been making.

        2. d1g2w3
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          That's the "play your own game" approach.

          If you have a player who is not owned by anyone and he is 9Xp and then a player everyone owns is 10Xp, if you captain the 9, your net gain/lost if the data matches reality is -1

          If your player outscores the 10Xp player by one, your net gain is +2

          This is the logic. However, I understand your view and it's just a different way of seeing it.

          End of the day, the game has an element of variance, and while there is variance, there is opportunity

          1. Bennerman
            • 7 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            Yes, and over the course of time those captaining X10 every time will win.

            1. d1g2w3
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              1 year, 10 months ago

              Yes agree, not saying you always choose the second option. The point is, with such a powerful chip that you get once, maybe it's worth the calculated gamble (variance)

              Obviously, variance is heavily reduced if you are always picking the lower Xp. Now your at a higher statistical disadvantage.

              Better on the wrong horse 20 times is bad, but better on a wrong horse with higher expected value one time might work out

              1. d1g2w3
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 16 Years
                1 year, 10 months ago

                Betting*

                1. Bennerman
                  • 7 Years
                  1 year, 10 months ago

                  Yes, I understand the concept, I've tried to be clear in the logic I have presented in response to it.

                  All that is being said is 'it might work out nicely if you take a bit of a gamble on triple captain'.

                  And the counterbalancing response that logic demands is 'but it also might well not'.

                  Simple stuff.

                  1. d1g2w3
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 16 Years
                    1 year, 10 months ago

                    Absolutely, and you also don't have the right to come on here and moan if it failed lol!

    3. Fitzy.
      • 14 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Hard to take any post with that opening line seriously.

      1. Pipermaru
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Touché.

    4. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Thank you. This adds a lot of weight to my argument.

  18. Tsparkes10
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Captain?

    A) Jota
    B) KDB
    C) Alvarez
    D) Bowen

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Too early to tell. C atm, but let us see how Liverpool plays first.

  19. Sloopy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    I like the way you think. Very interesting. Thank you!

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Thanks Sloppy!

  20. Herger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    It’s not often an article inspires awe but this one did for me. The sort of article that just has you questioning everything you thought you knew about the game. I had to get up and move around and properly digest all the new resultant ideas I had circulating in my mind afterwards. It’s not just the content itself either, it’s how articulately expressed it is. Would love to see more from this author. Bravo!

    1. Bennerman
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Hahahaha.

    2. Fitzy.
      • 14 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      He'll be posting the link to this one numerous times over the next few seasons, so you'll get your wish mate.

    3. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I've written plenty of articles you can read.

      This is a good one. It is the reason why the writing staff on scout started to focus on minutes per shot.

      https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2022/07/20/how-i-try-to-predict-the-future-in-fpl/

  21. Sausage™️
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Anyone considering jota?

    1. Dthinger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      yes

  22. Dthinger
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Trying to navigate injuries and international commitments gave be a bench headache. How do I get TAA back into this team? Who do I bench?

    Leno
    Estupinian Saliba Porro
    Saka Bowen Palmer Jota Foden
    Watkins Alvarez

    Pickford TAA Solanke Beyer

    1. Onanawhatsmyname
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Palmer to bench against Pool. Then Saliba as Arsenal’s defence is very weak

  23. OverTinker
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Probably only for those who are millionaires rankwise

  24. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 15 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Every Gameweek we get the chance to select a captain. If he gets more points than any other player that Gameweek then he is in hindsight the optimum choice. If you want to optimise the number of points you expect your team to get in any specific Gameweek then you should captain the player that you expect to get the most points (the Logical choice). Sometimes that will be the most popular choice and sometimes it won't. The latter case is when your expected gains are likely to be greatest, but going against the popular choice too often may cause losses instead.
    If you need to take a risk in order to catch or overtake a rival however, especially towards the end of the season, then you may need to captain a different player (a Sword choice), as even though you might expect that player to score less there is at least the possibility that he might score more.
    Or if you need to protect a lead then it may pay to captain the same player as you expect your rival to captain (a Shield choice) even if you don't expect that player to score the most points.

    The Triple Captain chip however can only be used once a season. To optimise your expected overall points for the season, you should Triple Captain the player you expect to score more points in the Gameweek that you Triple Captain him than any other player will in any other Gameweek. That is the Logical choice, but again in certain circumstances you may prefer to make a Sword or Shield choice instead, which may involve using your Triple Captain chip on a different player or in a different Gameweek.

    My own captain choices have gone pretty well so far this season, and last time I checked I was doing better with my captain choices than any of the Great and the Good, many of whom seem to indulge in a kind of groupthink and go for the Shield choices a bit too often. My successes included making Salah my go-to captain from Gameweek 8 onwards while they were still regularly captaining Haaland, and captaining Palmer last week when most of them were captaining Saka. Last season I captained Wilson in Gameweek 36 when the popular choice was Isak. Unfortunately some of my non-captaincy decisions have been rather less successful.

    The Triple Captain chip is more of a lottery. Sometimes it turns out right and sometimes it doesn't, but the last two seasons both went well for me - Rashford 12+8*3=60 in DGW22 last season and Salah 10+18*3=84 in DGW26 the year before.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Really interesting insights. Thank you, R.L.

  25. Onanawhatsmyname
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    I used mine for Haal’s big haul early in the season. Got 60 pts from him. Last season I used it when City whalloped United. My advice; go after a form goal scorer playing in one of the big teams when that team is on a role. Early in the season is great as teams are still fresh and hungry

    1. Onanawhatsmyname
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      *on a roll

  26. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Wow, over a hundred comments. Thank you guys 🙂

  27. The Suspended One
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Open wide..

    Here comes the airplane…

    Yum yum yum yum

  28. Klinski
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    I disagree. In the example quoted above where De Bryune scored four goals in a DGW, I actually deployed the bench boost and obtained 222 points which I understand is a world record for most number of points without any hits taken. I suspect the writer’s score even with triple captaining De Bryune is much much loser.

    1. Klinski
      • 10 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Sorry I meant lesser

      1. The Knights Template
        • 12 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Fewer.

  29. fedolefan
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    "the rewards (90 points versus 9 points; 72 points versus 21 points) can be huge."

    Just reading this now. The premise is really flawed. 2/3rd of the points come from picking the captain correctly. Only a third of those points comes from the TC chip. Your comparison should be (30 vs 3, 24 vs 7 etc). As you can see, the chip is highly overrated where your gains even when smashing it are ~25 points at best.

  30. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 9 months ago

    This was the TC article with some comments above.