Less than 24 hours after Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers were boosted by the prospect of a starting £4.5m forward, there’s a big development in the hunt for a playing £4.0m goalkeeper!
Martin Dubravka (£4.0m) has joined Burnley on a one-year deal, departing Newcastle United after seven years.
Here’s all that Fantasy managers need to know.
BRIEF HISTORY
Dubravka is actually into his third decade as a professional footballer, having debuted in 2009 for Žilina in his homeland.
The Slovakia international joined Esbjerg in January 2014, making his senior international debut while playing his club football in Denmark.
Signing for Slovan Liberec in 2016 and then fellow Czech side Sparta Prague a year later, he made the move to Newcastle on loan in January 2018.
That temporary stint would turn permanent that summer, and for the next four full seasons, he was the Magpies’ number one, with his spell in the team only interrupted by injury.
Nick Pope‘s (£5.0m) summer 2022 arrival changed all that. Playing second fiddle thereafter, Dubravka also spent five months on loan at Manchester United (not making any league starts). Pope’s semi-frequent fitness issues kept him ticking over with appearances, however.
GOALKEEPING STATS
| Season | Club | Starts (Sub apps) | Goals conceded | Save % | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013/14 | Esbjerg | 15 | 10 | 78.7 | 8 |
| 2014/15 | Esbjerg | 33 | 45 | 67.9 | 9 |
| 2015/16 | Esbjerg | 18 | 37 | 58.4 | 1 |
| 2016/17 | Slovan Liberec | 28 | 28 | 80.3 | 10 |
| 2017/18 | Sparta Prague | 11 | 7 | 82.5 | 5 |
| 2017/18 | Newcastle | 12 | 11 | 70.3 | 4 |
| 2018/19 | Newcastle | 38 | 48 | 70.0 | 11 |
| 2019/20 | Newcastle | 38 | 58 | 71.3 | 11 |
| 2020/21 | Newcastle | 13 | 19 | 71.0 | 3 |
| 2021/22 | Newcastle | 26 | 35 | 67.9 | 8 |
| 2022/23 | Newcastle | 1 (1) | 1 | 88.9 | 0 |
| 2023/24 | Newcastle | 22 (1) | 42 | 70.8 | 5 |
| 2024/25 | Newcastle | 10 | 12 | 70.7 | 5 |
Above data from Fbref
There are some solid but unspectacular numbers here, with Dubravka’s save percentage almost always around the 70% mark at Newcastle. Roughly speaking, that’s usually around mid-table-ish in the end-of-season save columns.
The general consensus from Magpies fans was that Pope was the better shot-stopper, and that Dubravka was the superior of the two with the ball at his feet.
There’s life in the old dog yet, though. Dubravka was on the cusp of leaving Tyneside in January 2025, only for another Pope injury to allow the experienced Slovak a run in the team.
So good were his initial displays – five clean sheets in 10 – that there was even a dilemma for Eddie Howe as to whether Pope came back in the team. It’s a small sample, but Statsbomb had him as the best goalkeeper for ‘goals saved above average (GSAA)‘ (the equivalent of Opta’s xG prevented) last season!
Above: Premier League goalkeepers compared in 2024/25, featuring GSAA and goals conceded
While we have limited Statsbomb data, Opta had Dubravka as having a positive xGP (ie keeping out more goals than expected) in six out of his eight seasons at Newcastle.
IS DUBRAVKA FIT?
Before we go any further and get too excited about his first-team prospects, a word of warning.
Dubravka hasn’t featured since Newcastle’s July 19 friendly against Celtic, missing the tour to the Far East on fitness grounds.
“Martin was scheduled to travel out but he had a shoulder problem and went to see a specialist (abroad) and I think he had an injection. We are awaiting feedback. I think he will be OK.” – Eddie Howe on Martin Dubravka, via the Chronicle
He’s passed his medical at Burnley, so we’re assuming all is okay on that front – but it’s worth paying attention to this weekend’s friendly against Lazio and Scott Parker’s pre-Gameweek 1 presser next week to be absolutely certain.
DUBRAVKA V WEISS: ARE WE SURE WHO STARTS?
Even if Dubravka is fully fit, are we sure who starts between the sticks for the Clarets? Not 100% so…
While James Trafford (£5.0m) has departed this summer, another goalkeeper in the shape of Max Weiss (£4.5m) has joined the club.
Weiss is a relative rookie, however. The 21-year-old’s senior experience basically amounts to one season in the second tier of German football. He was an ever-present starter for Karlsruher in 2024/25, managing just eight clean sheets.
No xG data exists for Bundesliga II but Weiss’s save percentage was a Dubravka-esque 70.7%.
The thinking seems to be that Weiss is Trafford’s long-term successor; they seem to have similar profiles. But to throw him in now, off the back of no top-flight experience anywhere, would be folly.
Dubravka, by contrast, is a seasoned campaigner with bags of Premier League appearances under his belt. A year under the veteran Slovak’s tutelage (Dubravka has only signed on for 12 months) could be just what Weiss needs in terms of adaptation and longer-term development.
The Burnley Express seem to think so…
BENCH BOOST!
A £4.0m playing goalkeeper is ideal for a Bench Boost. Wheel him out for the chip, then park him on the bench and forget, safe in the knowledge that he’s not wasted budget as an unused substitute.
Here are a few of Burnley’s stand-out fixtures with that in mind:
A Gameweek 2 Bench Boost might be hard to nail, with Arsenal and Bournemouth having trickier opening-day fixtures. You’d ideally want representation from those clubs in Gameweek 2.
Could a Gameweek 8 Bench Boost be better, particularly if used in conjunction with a Gameweek 6/7 Wildcard? You could bring in Manchester City assets at that point, for instance, as their fixtures improve.
Don’t forget that FPL are giving us five extra free transfers in Gameweek 16 this season, so there’s the possibility to ‘mini-Wildcard’ into a Gameweek 18 Bench Boost and field Dubravka then.
IS DUBRAVKA WORTH BUYING IN FPL?
Let’s be honest: it’s probably a bit of a no-brainer this one.
No other £4.0m goalkeeper currently has serious starting potential, assuming that Daniel Farke prefers Lucas Perri (£4.5m) over Karl Darlow (£4.0m) at Leeds United.
The only alternative Fantasy ‘keeper strategy would be to pick and first and second choice (the back-up being £4.0m) from the same club, knowing that you’d have a guaranteed man between the sticks in case of injury, suspension or loss of form. Guglielmo Vicario (£5.0m) and Antonin Kinsky (£4.0m) are an example of this.
That’s not a strategy you’d want to use for a Bench Boost, however, as only one of those will start on a given Gameweek.
So, assuming that Dubravka is fit and set to start (let’s listen out for any Parker quotes on that), he’s your go-to £4.0m goalkeeper for now.
As for what to expect in terms of FPL returns, the Clarets had a phenomenal record last season, keeping 30 clean sheets!
There are some reservations about 2025/26:
- Trafford’s xG-defying heroics masked the fact that Burnley’s underlying numbers were actually inferior to those of Leeds in 2024/25.
- Parker has not yet proven he can handle the step up to Premier League level.
- The promoted clubs have had shockers in recent seasons: last year’s three kept just eight clean sheets between them.
But given that Dubravka will mostly be a bench-warmer for the vast majority of FPL managers anyway, the pros outweigh the cons.
