The Final round of World Cup Fantasy gives managers one last chance to gain rank and finish strongly.
With only two matches remaining, every defensive and attacking decision carries even more weight.
In this article, we assess the latest clean sheet and goalscoring odds for all four teams. We will highlight the strongest defensive prospects, the sides most likely to score and the players who could benefit most from each matchup.
To do this, we’ll use the data in our World Cup Fantasy Toolkit.
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CLEAN SHEET ODDS
Spain top the clean-sheet odds ahead of their World Cup final against Argentina. Luis de la Fuente’s side have kept six clean sheets in seven matches and conceded just once. No team has defended better during the tournament.
However, Argentina have produced more xG (expected goals) than any other nation at the World Cup. As a result, Lionel Scaloni’s side should ask far more questions than most of Spain’s previous opponents – although France were meant to be a huge test for La Roja and came up well short.
Argentina rank second for clean-sheet odds, although they sit well behind Spain. The bookmakers give them a 30.3% chance of a shutout. Scaloni’s men have not kept a clean sheet since their Round 2 win over Austria.
France also edge England in the clean-sheet odds for the third-place play-off. Before losing to Spain in the semi-finals, Les Bleus recorded three successive shutouts. England, meanwhile, have struggled defensively since the group stage.
The underlying numbers add to those concerns. No team has registered more attempts on goal than France during the tournament. That helps explain why the bookmakers give Thomas Tuchel’s side just a 17.4% chance of keeping a clean sheet.
TOP 10 GOALSCORER ODDS
It should come as no surprise that eight of the top 10 goalscoring odds belong to players involved in the England v France third-place play-off. Both sides rank bottom for clean-sheet odds this round, making their attackers even more appealing.
It is also no shock to see Kylian Mbappé ($10.5m) top the list with a 55.6% chance of scoring. We still don’t know whether he will start, but Fantasy managers will have access to the line-ups before the deadline.
Mbappé also has plenty to play for. He remains firmly in the race for the Golden Boot, so both he and France should have plenty of motivation if he starts.
Several of his teammates also feature in the top 10. If Didier Deschamps rotates his side, Jean-Philippe Mateta ($6.5m) has a strong chance of leading the line. He and Marcus Thuram ($7.5m), who has mainly played on the left wing during the tournament, both carry a 40% chance of scoring.
Ousmane Dembélé ($10.0m) and Rayan Cherki ($8.0m) also make the list. Cherki has appeared in six of France’s seven World Cup matches, so this looks like a good opportunity for him to earn his first start of the tournament.
France’s expected rotation and their subdued display against Spain may also explain why several England attackers feature. Harry Kane ($10.5m) ranks second overall with a 45% chance of scoring. If he misses out, Ollie Watkins ($7.9m) or Ivan Toney ($7.5m) should lead the attack, and both also make the top 10.
Only two players from the World Cup final between Argentina and Spain feature among the top 10 goalscoring odds. Lionel Messi ($10.0m) will hope to lead Argentina to back-to-back World Cup titles while also strengthening his bid for the Golden Boot. He and Mbappé both head into the final with eight goals.
For Spain, Mikel Oyarzabal ($8.1m) is the only player to make the cut. The striker has scored five goals in seven World Cup appearances and heads into the final in excellent form.
