This article aims to find out the best Fantasy Premier League captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining bookies odds with form and fixture.
In Gameweek 12 the model’s top pick, Romelu Lukaku, failed to deliver attacking returns in what was a low-scoring Gameweek for many FPL managers. This means that this strategy has a five out of six success rate. On the plus side this method did highlight Sunderland striker Jermain Defoe as a differential captaincy choice. Those who backed him with the armband were rewarded with 22 points.
Before I take a look at Gameweek 13’s best captaincy targets let’s have a quick recap on how I use odds, form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method, I take six popular captaincy options, according to the FFScout captaincy poll and rank them 1-6 according to their likelihood to score according to the bookies.
I then give the same 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (SiB) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at points per game, goals and assists over the last four games.
I understand that the odds segment can sometimes heavily outweigh others (e.g. Aguero is always likely to be low odds for scoring) so I have added a fixtures and form combined only element that could be used separately if you so wished.
With that in mind let’s take a look at Gameweek 12’s results.
ODDS
| Rank | Player | Odds To Score | Implied Probability |
| 1.5 | Firmino | 13/20 | 60.6 |
| 1.5 | Aguero | 13/20 | 60.6 |
| 3.5 | Coutinho | 10/11 | 52.4 |
| 3.5 | Sanchez | 10/11 | 52.4 |
| 5. | Hazard | 6/4 | 40 |
| 6. | Sigurdsson | 8/5 | 38.5 |
FIXTURE
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals Conceded | Big Chances Conceded SiB conceded Total |
| 1.5 | Firmino | Sunderland (H) | 6 | 7 56 69 |
| 1.5 | Coutinho | Sunderland (H) | 6 | 7 56 69 |
| 3. | Sigurdsson | C. Palace (H) | 10 | 9 40 59 |
| 4. | Aguero | Burnley (a) | 7 | 6 45 58 |
| 5. | Sanchez | Bournemouth (H) | 4 | 5 29 38 |
| 6. | Hazard | Tottenham (H) | 4 | 3 25 32 |
FORM
| Rank | Player | PPG | Goals | Assists |
| 1. | Hazard | 11.25 | 4 | 2 |
| 2. | Coutinho | 7.75 | 2 | 3 |
| 3. | Firmino | 7.25 | 2 | 3 |
| 4. | Aguero | 6.25 | 3 | 1 |
| 5. | Sigurdsson | 5.25 | 1 | 2 |
| 6. | Sanchez | 4.75 | 2 | 0 |
RESULTS
Rank Player Form Fixture Odds Total Total Rank without odds factored in
1. Firmino 3 1.5 1.5 6 2nd
2. Coutinho 2 1.5 3.5 7 1st
3 Aguero 4 4 1.5 9.5 4.5
4. Hazard 1 6 5 12 3rd
5. Sigurdsson 5 3 6 14 4.5
6. Sanchez 6 5 3.5 14.5 6th
ANALYSIS
Taking odds, fixture and form into account, Roberto Firmino is the most likely to deliver attacking returns this Gameweek. Sunderland have conceded a whopping 56 attempts in the box in their last four games, which bodes well for FPL managers’ with Liverpool assets this week.
Philippe Coutinho sits just behind his team-mate in second place. If you like your statistics without odds factored in, he sits atop of the standings. There is very little to choose between the two Brazilians and all the signs point towards an easy-win for Liverpool.
Alexis Sanchez sits bottom of both totals this week as his form continues to dip. Interestingly, despite a home tie against Bournemouth, the Chilean only sits fifth when looking at fixtures. The Cherries have only conceded four goals in as many fames and register low numbers for both big chances conceded and SiB conceded. Perhaps enough to deter would be captainers this week?
The differential captain this week goes to Gylfi Sigurdsson. The Icelandic maestro is bang on form and faces a Crystal Palace side that has conceded 10 goals in the last four Gameweeks. The Eagles have the joint highest number of big chances conceded (9) against them out of any Premier League team in the same time frame.
