Dugout Discussion – Bournemouth vs Brighton

Just sell Lukaku like every other idiot

Richarlison > Atsu
Lukaku > Kane

Mkhi to Gross? Any cash in the bank?

just keep your current front 7 looks good as is

Lot more luck than skill imo 😉

https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/36298/history

Must be very lucky in the last 3 seasons.

Guess it depends on what your definition is of luck. I think the season is long enough that it tends to separate out the poor players from the better ones, but I do enjoy all the "check out this high ranked ghost ship" team posts towards the end of the season.

Bad players can do very well with luck yes, however good players are time and time again at the top. 80/20 for me

I think skill determines your average finish and luck affects your floor/ceiling. If you're a skillful/dedicated FPL player, you'll finish somewhere in the top 50k almost every season. It would take truly horrendous luck to finish outside that. You need some good luck to break into the top 1000/100.

Without meaning to sound harsh, asking that question means you are probably not yet in a position to understand the answer. I know that sounds bad so let me be more constructive...

FPL is really just a platform where you can trade a market. In this market, the players are the stock and the points are the equivalent of your financial returns. There is fundamental analysis that can be done to determine the value of those stocks and fundamental news that changes the value of those stocks.

Then there are technical indicators. Those indicators are metrics that can be used in an attempt to predict the future trend or performance of those stocks.

Finally there is the same phycological challenges that an FPL manager or trader must overcome. These are the things that prevent them from executing the optimum strategy. The natural emotions or behaviours that we all have by default that prevent us from applying objectivity.

Finally, when you gamble (often) or trade (always) you are playing a game where there is a large portion of chance involved. But if you understand concepts such as expected value and standard deviation you will know that if you gamble/trade with an edge, over a statistically significant period, chance (or luck) only accounts for the volatility (deviations from the norm) and not the actual outcome over a statistically significant period.

I understand these concepts at a high level and used to practice them at a low level in regards to playing online poker for profit but I'm out of practice now.

Someone smarter than me would be able to tell you if 38 games is a significant amount of time for your edge to consistently manifest itself. My guess would be that it's not but when you look over many seasons a player with an edge would have consistent results with a few outlier seasons.

In conclusion... FPL is a market, you are a trader. There is a significant amount of chance involved but if you trade with an edge you will more often than not get a better return.

Finally, there are players that consistently crush FPL most years. They may be statistical anomalies but I suspect they have an edge and the ability to execute without deviating from their strategy due to emotion.

id say 80/20

Like in everything else in life, the factor of luck decreases with increasing knowledge. FPL success is driven by decisions based on your knowledge, first of all about clubs, players, who's nailed, suspended, injured etc. These are the basics, the next step is experience and data analysis, the final factor is luck. For example, you know players A and B are big hitters, you check their stats and are similary good, they play against similary bad opponents (lots of shots and goals conceded, not many saves etc). You have a 50-50 decision to make, toss a coin and go with player A. 25 minutes into the game he gets injured, meanwhile player B gets a haul. That's luck, because you can hardly predict an injury. However season is 38 gameweeks long so these situations even themselves out. The factor of knowledge is at least around 95%, in the long run, luck is pretty irrelevant.

Yes.

Yes

Looked lively but defence is leaky

Kola

If you can have only one, I think it has to be Davies because of the additional clean sheet potential.

Flip a coin imo. Both will score very similar I think

😛

Nope because Pope is 4.5

Better options at 4.5m that Pope

Not yet!

Tonight?

Bloody hell

Not yet but overall fine unless you have Elliot GK you'll play I think m

Neither

Why ditch Mee this week?

i have elliot and foster so can cover with elliot i guess only concern is naughton might not play wing back anymore and mee might drop in price but i think better hold to as transfer is too sideways doesnt save cash no injury/suspension problem better to just roll the transfer. thanks for the advice guys

Vardy,don't rush a transfer just for price rise,remember u need a double rise to gain 0,1

Mourinho

Garbage midweek al

There is a huge market for Mkhi abroad

He's been quite poor apart from the occasional assist, purple patch will come to an end soon

Blanked last week

No idea I don't think there is any better midfield option for 8.4 at all IMO

Overall rank differential.

Probably because he's scoring and playing Swansea

Yup, him and stanislas when fit will be good value

Don't even mention that name. Absolute pile of crap.

We don't know what Hodgson's preferred starting XI is yet, so far too early to tell.

Im tipsy but my left nut may be a better prospect than Woy

I'm shipping Stephens tonight. I know the risks!

I got Stephens too and thinking about the same. Think I will hold though. Someone could get injured tomorrow or Sunday, and I'm not gonna play Stephens next week anyway so might actually save transfer

😆

Yes but not the Tottenham one lol

STOP

Who has him?

lol

Monreal

Trippier / Jones

Like both, Mendy for the diff maybe

Not worth

Oh noo... 2 vs 2.. my defends currently are davies , jones, cedric, naughton and 4.0

Kola could outscore Mendy for 0.5 less and is at less risk of rotation if Wenger behaved himself.

I'm keen on Mendy also but have opted to get Kola in first.

Does Harry Kane count as a differential nowadays?

Which ones precisely ?
Back it up with suggestions rather than random speculation.

seems like a downgrade thou.. probably just get rid of trippier atm

Wouldn't do that for -8, if at all

why would you want that to happen, much better if hes nailed

well youve definitely not rushed

A

a

A

A

Looks template.

Nowt wrong with that

4.6