Spot The Differential – Gameweek 28

Everton’s Oumar Niasse and Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold both came through for us in Gameweek 27, and we’re again prioritising players with a guaranteed Gameweek 31 fixture in our latest set of differentials.

So, with appealing home match-ups later today, we’re backing attackers from Liverpool and Watford, while an in-form Brighton midfielder looks an enticing prospect ahead of a home encounter against Swansea City.

Sadio Mane

While Fantasy managers deliberate over which Liverpool asset to invest in alongside Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino, it’s Sadio Mane who looks the most explosive option.

The Reds benefit from a very enticing short-term schedule (WHU NEW mun WAT), including that guaranteed fixture against Watford in Gameweek 31 when only eight teams are certain to be in action.

The Senegal international fired a hat-trick in the 5-0 win over Porto in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League last-16 tie but has lived in the shadow of Salah and Firmino this season, explaining why he sits in just 7.9% of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) squads.

His underlying statistics over the last four Gameweeks suggest the Champions League hat-trick could be a sign of what’s to come in the forthcoming league matches.

The former Southampton midfielder has produced more shots inside the penalty area than Firmino (nine to five), and has created more chances (eight) than any team-mate.

Jurgen Klopp’s men have created more big chances (14) than any other side over the last four Gameweeks, and only Manchester City (79) have scored more goals than the Reds (61) this season.

While Mane does set us back 9.3 in FPL, this looks to be a window when investment in three Reds attackers could be justified.

Jose Izquierdo

Goals in each of the last two Gameweeks and a promising home meeting with Swansea City ensures that Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder Jose Izquierdo make the cut.

The Seagulls’ winger has been growing in confidence of late, perhaps due to the fact he’s played from start to finish in each of the last three league matches, having only managed the full 90 minutes twice over the opening 24 Gameweeks.

His underlying statistics over those three most recent matches illustrate the Colombian’s impact.

Only Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne (six) has produced more shots on target among FPL midfielders than Izquierdo (four), while he also ranks among the top five midfielders for shots (eight) and efforts inside the box (six).

This afternoon’s match-up with Swansea looks favourable.

The Welsh outfit have conceded in each of their three away matches under Carlos Carvalhal, while no team has given up more chances down the right flank (115).

That bodes well for Izquierdo, whose pace and directness down Brighton’s left could cause plenty of problems for the visiting defence.

Izquierdo’s inconsistent form over the first half of the season mean he is owned by just 0.2% of FPL managers.

But priced at 5.9, he looks a fantastic budget option given his current output.

Troy Deeney

The home form of Watford’s Troy Deeney sees the striker complete our trio.

The Hornets skipper has registered attacking returns in each of his last two outings at Vicarage Road, while all three of his goals this season have come on home turf.

Javi Gracia’s side host Everton in today’s late kick-off.

The Toffees have failed to keep a clean sheet in seven matches and have shipped 11 goals in their last three road trips.

Deeney, meanwhile, has offered much more of a goal threat of late.

Since being recalled to the starting XI in Gameweek 24, he has averaged a shot every 44.9 minutes, up from every 75.1 minutes previously.

Another key aspect to Deeney’s appeal is the fact the Hornets are one of only eight clubs certain to play in Gameweek 31, when they travel to face Liverpool.

The 6.3-priced forward also has a plum home fixture against West Bromwich Albion next weekend.

So for any Fantasy managers seeking a major differential in attack, the 0.4%-owned Deeney fits the profile.