Pro Pundits - Simon

The House’s Money: Why maintaining a good start to the FPL season is so difficult

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times …it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.”

  • Charles Dickens, ‘A Tale of Two Cities’.

Dickens may not have been speaking specifically about the opening Gameweeks of an FPL season (we’ll never know for sure) but his words are, nonetheless, fairly appropriate. While it has, indeed, been a tale of two Gameweeks thus far, there will be some who have done far, far better than others.

I love the start of a new FPL campaign as much as the next Fantasy manager but, I have to admit, it’s also among the most challenging parts to navigate successfully. Not only are we operating with very little information, but many of us also have to deal with the fact that some mini-league rivals have, somehow, already opened up what might appear to be unassailable leads.

Of course, this is the part of the season where we regularly preach patience and encourage people to avoid panic-driven decisions that they might later regret. Phrases like ‘it’s a marathon, not a sprint’ are commonplace on FPL forums and we might also comfort ourselves with our vague childhood memories of a story about a race between a tortoise and a hare.

This article, however, will focus on why those people who have shot to the front probably won’t stay there, and why those chasing shouldn’t panic, yet.

The House Money Effect

Gamblers and investors, in particular, may be familiar with the ‘House Money Effect’, a cognitive bias first popularised by Nobel Prize-winning economist Richard Thaler. 

Essentially, the House Money Effect draws off the principles of ‘mental accounting’; the idea that we categorise money and expenditures into different accounts in our mind, and we evaluate outcomes in relation to these. 

So, for example, we might have mental accounts such as ‘beer money’, ‘college funds’ or ‘holiday money.’

The House Money Effect often occurs when we receive money in an atypical manner. For example; winning a bet, receiving a bonus or profiting from an investment. 

Behavioural psychologists have observed that people take far greater risks with such sums than they would with their savings or regular earnings. They also find that people also tend to be more generous with such windfalls than they might otherwise be.

The proposed reason for this phenomenon is that, psychologically, people don’t perceive these sums to really be their money, it goes into a completely different mental account to money earned in the normal way. It’s the casinos or ‘the house’s money’ and, thus, we tend to treat it that way. At best, we make more money from the risks we take with it. And at worst, we end up with our original stake, no better or worse off than we were before and, because we think we’ll be okay with either outcome, we’re inclined to treat it as fun money.

I would argue that, due to their windfall of FPL points, Fantasy managers who do very well in the opening few Gameweeks are substantially more at risk of succumbing to the House Money Effect than normal. 

This might translate into them spending some of those points via hits, making riskier transfers, making transfers when it might have been objectively more sensible to save them or simply being less rigorous in their selections, captaincy or transfer decisions. 

Now, this isn’t to say that high-flying managers simply got there by luck, much in same as an investor doesn’t profit entirely by luck, it’s simply stating that, due to this cognitive bias, the extra points they have scored may seem like ‘house money’ to them, and they’re likely to be more inclined to risk them as a result. 

Essentially; if they blow their lead, they’re no worse off than their competitors and this, mentally, becomes their baseline.

How Spurs and Everton's new signings fared in their FPL Gameweek 1 debuts 1

There is some evidence that may support this having already occurred too. Between Gameweeks 1 and 2, the average number of points spent on transfers via hits by FPL managers was 2.28 points overall but, among the Top 10k, this rose almost 20% to 2.72. 

Rationally-speaking, the Top 10k should have had less cause to make any transfers, let alone take hits, based on Gameweek 1 but, instead, they made more transfers and spent more points on them. 

The Top 10k also scored fewer gross points on average than the overall (53.27 vs 59.55). Naturally, in a single gameweek, this could simply be luck, but it could also be a result of less rigorous decision-making caused by the House Money Effect.

So, for those chasing, the key lessons from this are to not panic, to not make the same mistakes that the people above you probably will, and to take advantage of these mistakes to close the gap. That means avoiding hits, risky captaincies and panic moves like Wildcarding unnecessarily. 

It is worth bearing in mind that many of those who held firm with their Gameweek 1 squad profited as a result in Gameweek 2. As Guns ‘n’ Roses singer Axl Rose once said, “All we need is a little patience” though, again, it’s unclear whether he was talking about FPL specifically.

Naturally, there is also a fairly obvious lesson in all of this for those FPL managers who are doing really well after two Gameweeks, which I suppose I could spell out, but, honestly, who really wants to help those people anyway?

My Gameweek 3 Team


Former Fantasy Premier League world champion and four-time finisher in the top 7k Simon March gives us the lowdown on his thinking for the new campaign.

2,796 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Chucky
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Davies to start on sunday?

    1. Champions League Varane
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I doubt

      1. Chucky
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        cheers,gone from my team...

        1. Champions League Varane
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Definitely gone next week so yeah good move chuck

        2. Ser Davos
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          chuck him chuck

  2. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Foden goal

  3. You've got red on you.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    TAA + Mitrovic + 4.5 mid

    Robertson + Foden + 4.5 for

    1. You've got red on you.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      The 4.5s would be benchies

      1. pablo discobar
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Exactly what I'm looking at right now.. tough

    2. Livinginapool - Top 100 Any…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B for me. But it's very close.

  4. sully29
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    If Brewster moves to another club, would you bring him in? Or are there too many good options up front to opt for a 4.5er?

    1. Rainer
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I would, extra points in midfield.

    2. St Pauli Walnuts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      There's great options everywhere so he'd be an amazing enabler if he goes to a club where he is a likely starter, like WBA or Sheff. Just wish it would happen already, I presumed it would be done while I'm on my WC.

  5. The 12th Man
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Transfers done for the week. 2.1m itb to pump back into my squad next week.
    Best area to use it?

    Martinez
    Coleman,Saiss,Ayling
    Salah,KDB(c)Son,J.Rodriguez,Podence
    Richarlison, Jimenez

    Steer,Lewis,Brewster,Ferguson 2.1m itb.
    A) defence (Coleman > Robertson) or (Lewis > VVD or Chilwell)
    B) midfield
    C) forwards. Richarlison > Jesus

    1. Albrightondknight
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Front 7 look ideal to me so I would leave that alone. I think you could roll the ft in gw4 and wait til Coleman plays Liverpool

  6. UnitedFan
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Saint-Maximin > Podence worth a hit?

    1. sully29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yes.

    2. Costa Nostra
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Before the rise and drop it was!

  7. DoubleBeckerBus
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Debating taking Vardy out for Werner/Jesus for GW3. Basing this on trying to stick with this over the next couple of game weeks. Swaying towards Werner?

  8. Rainer
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Goal & assist for Foden tonight with Mahrez & Torres not looking up to scratch.

    Foden benched vs Leicester & Leeds.

    1. Goonsquad245
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      You’ve got it. Fraudulence incoming.

    2. Amey
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      😆

    3. Ser Davos
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Mahrez and Bilva both go from hero to zero and back again very flippantly

  9. Ask Yourself
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Great link up play between Foden and Mahrez. Mahrez fantasy assist, Foden goal

  10. RedCity
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Auba + Callum Wilson OUT
    JRod + Kane IN

    2 FTs. Already have Son

    1. RedCity
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Or
      Wilson + B. Davies OUT
      DCL + Mitchell IN

  11. Kay317
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Sorry, repost, bottomed on last page.
    Which combo?
    A) Zaha and DCL
    B) Foden and Richi

    Think I prefer B

    1. One for All
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

    2. RedCity
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B if Foden gets decent game time

      1. Kay317
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        That's the big question. Seems to be playing well so far so think he will. But it's Pep so who knows.

  12. The_FF_King
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Two free transfers. Should I do:

    Werner to DCL
    &
    ASM to James Rodríguez

    1. Herman Toothrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Keep Werner

    2. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      No I’d find some other options to be honest asking to get burnt on Werner

    3. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Wouldnt switch Werner to DCL this week.

    4. One for All
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      See how Werner does this gw, I would transfer him out if he blanks against Westbrom

    5. The_FF_King
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks guys 🙂

    6. sully29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Not the GW to sell Werner.

    7. St Pauli Walnuts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Wouldn't want to take Werner out before the WBA game if not on a WC.

    8. Amey
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'm bringing Werner for a hit.
      You're selling ...

      Only one of us will be happy for sure

      1. One for All
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I thought you had Martial and Mitrovic Amey? Good fixtures for both, I wouldn't take a hit for Werner.

        1. Amey
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Selling Wilson mate 🙂

          1. One for All
            • 6 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            I see

  13. Will J 256
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Which 4.5 goalkeeper is the best on a wildcard for the long run?

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      ryan for me

    2. St Pauli Walnuts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Martinez but Ryan also a decent choice.

      1. Will J 256
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Fair enough! Thanks guys.

    3. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Martinez or Ryan

      1. Will J 256
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers!

  14. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Need Werner to drop and Justin to rise before saturday.

    Any chance?

    1. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I could also do with that Werner drop, just don't think it's coming.

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Justin may well go up in price tonight but Werner fall before Saturday touch and go- depends on sales tomorrow

    3. St Pauli Walnuts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I think yes to Justin but Werner will be touch and go, the WBA fixture is appealing so I think he will just about hand on to current price.

  15. The_FF_King
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Auba to Son for free?

    1. One for All
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yes

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        not for me. auba has sheffield next and son utd away.

    2. Livinginapool - Top 100 Any…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Sterling or Salah for me.

      1. Livinginapool - Top 100 Any…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Or KDB, obviously, if you don't have him.

  16. Threat Level Midnight
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Settled on this, and enables me to get anyone moving forward with a simple two moves.

    Martinez
    Saiss-James-Mitchell
    Salah-Sterling (C)-KDB-Foden
    Martial-Jimmy

    Steer-Lamptey-Anguissa-Brewster

    Thoughts?

    1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      One player is missing

      1. Threat Level Midnight
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Good call. Lamptey is starting and Justin is first on bench. My mistake.

        1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I see. Love it!

    2. RedCity
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Wouldn’t triple up on City mids. Could look to include a Spurs/Everton attacking asset

    3. Garlana
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Crazy midfield

    4. yakirh
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      All eggs in 1 pep roulette

      1. Threat Level Midnight
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Bald Fraud or bust I guess.

  17. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Foden could be fpl gold for 6.5.

    Thoughts?

    1. Threat Level Midnight
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yes

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Absolutely- just have to accept he will be benched from time to time

    3. SAUCY SALAH
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yeah, eventually (maybe next week) will be my only City possibly (depends on Bruno)

    4. Livinginapool - Top 100 Any…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yep. Amazing value - just got to be patient. If he doesn't start, stay off here for a few days...

  18. Will J 256
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Ryan or Martinez?

    1. SAUCY SALAH
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Martinez for the DGW

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        i think i ll use free hit that week

  19. BPT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Help with my WC

    Ryan - Steer

    James - Saiss - Lamptey - Mitchell - Konsa

    J.Rod - Salah - Son - KDB - Podence

    Werner - Jimenez - Davis

    1) Should I sell Podence /+1 to reforce my defense?

    2) Any other suggestions?

    1. sully29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      If I was opting for a 4.5 fwd I think I'd go for Brewster, in the hope that he completes a transfer away and becomes a key value pick. Particularly in your case as you currently have two free Liverpool slots anyway.

      I wouldn't sell Podence. Again, he's the sort of cheap value pick you want in a wildcard. If you want to strengthen defence then the money should be coming from elsewhere in midfield, I think.

      1. BPT
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks

        I wiill change

        Ryan > Martinez
        Konsa > Brewster

        1. BPT
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Davis>Brew

  20. Jeff Wilson
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Zaha J.Rod or DCL? I feel like they're all traps but Zaha could come good

    1. Ask Yourself
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      If we knew zaha would remain at striker It would be an easy decision but you just know Roy will make it as difficult for palace to stay up as he can and shift him out wide at the earliest available opportunity

    2. jimmyabs1987
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      You can set and forget Zaha for next 10 GWs, best run of fixtures by far of all the options

  21. SAUCY SALAH
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Resist the drop Soucek!

    1. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Just see he is on -100. Slightly annoying!

      1. SAUCY SALAH
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Yup!

  22. Ask Yourself
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Rodriguez or DCL then :/

    1. Gudjohnsen
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      ?

      1. Ask Yourself
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Which one is better

    2. Piggs Boson
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Inzaghi

      1. Ask Yourself
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Lol

    3. The 12th Man
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Richarlison

      1. Ask Yourself
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Doubt it

    4. The 12th Man
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      With Foden becoming an option maybe DCL is the better pick to give room for double City midfield.

      1. Ask Yourself
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Yep that’s what I have atm on WC. Brewster on way out leaves room for a mid spot instead of a striker one tho

    5. It’s gonna Ben Mee
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I ended up with both

  23. jimmyabs1987
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Is lamptey fit for weekend do we know?

      1. jimmyabs1987
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks

  24. TheDragon
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Will these players start at the weekend?

    A) ASM
    B) Foden
    C) Podence
    D) Davies (Spurs)

    1. Konstaapeli
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Why wouldn't Podence start?

      1. Konstaapeli
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Or ASM?

        1. TheDragon
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          ASM is potentially injures
          Wolves have lots of new signings

          1. Konstaapeli
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Fair enough

  25. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Wee lamptey or another nailed 4.5 def enough bench cover for foden or do you prefer to have someone better on the bench with a player like him?

    Rest of bench is Bissouma and Mitchel

    1. Konstaapeli
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yes.

    2. ZakyJ
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      This WC or? I wouldn't have Bissouma if so, I'd have Burke

  26. Super Nashwan
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    A) Calvert-Lewin and anguissa or
    B) Foden and Mitro?

    1. ZakyJ
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      DCL and Burke

      1. ZakyJ
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Presuming theyll be on the bench most the time

  27. ZakyJ
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    RMT WC:

    Martinez (Forster)
    VVD Saiss Justin (Lampty Mitchell)
    KDB Salah Son Rodriguez Foden
    Jimi DCL (Brewster)

    1. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Practically the same as my team, so I like it. Looks good for weeks to come. Good luck

  28. The_FF_King
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Do we think Son will rise tonight? Currently on 95%

  29. JabbaWookiee
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Help with the WC question marks please guys...

    Martinez - Nyland
    ??? - Saiss - Justin - Taylor - Mitchell
    Salah - Son - KdB - ??? - Burke
    Wood - DCL - ???

    A - TAA, Podence, Werner
    B - VVD, Rodriguez, Jiminez

  30. wildnothing
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    RMWCT please

    Ryan Walton
    TAA Saiss KWP Lamptey Dunne
    Salah KDB Zaha Barnes Foden
    Jimenez DCL Mitrovic