Spot the Differential

Everton reinforcements can help Richarlison exploit Wolves in wide areas

Finding a credible differential is a test at the best of times, but even more so this week, with just 12 teams currently in action.

However, despite a smaller pool of players to choose from, we’ve found two options at Arsenal who we think can offer real value, as well as examining an alternative route into Everton’s attack.

As always, to qualify, the players must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Richarlison

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £7.8m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: wol | avl | LEI | NEW | lee 

With James Rodríguez (£7.7m) and Lucas Digne (£6.0m) returning to action at the weekend, now might be a good time to re-evaluate Everton’s attacking assets.

In their absence, Carlo Ancelotti was forced to change his teams’ setup, opting for a more conservative approach. However, with key players back, I expect we’ll see them in a 4-3-3 again, the system which provided some good results in the early part of the season.

And while Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.8m) is the long-term play, team-mate Richarlison (£7.8m) might be worth a punt this week.

The Brazilian has been reliable on the road this season, producing attacking returns in each of his last four away matches, which has included goals against Leicester City and Crystal Palace. On his travels, he’s shooting more often, is more involved in the final third and is accumulating big chances at a faster rate too, all of which bodes well for his prospects at Molineux. 

The defensive data also tells us that Everton’s opponents, Wolves, tend to concede most of their chances from wider areas. In the last six matches, they’ve given up 17 from the left zone, 23 from the right and just eight from the centre. With Nélson Semedo (£5.4m) often looking vulnerable since his move, I think Richarlison will fancy his chances tomorrow night.

Everton were off the pace against West Ham United last time out, but will be given a lift by their returning players, and Richarlison could be an ideal gamble for those eyeing up a differential in their Free Hit squads.

Emile Smith Rowe

  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Arsenal’s Emile Smith Rowe (£4.4m) has impressed in recent weeks, and quickly established himself as a key part of Mikel Arteta’s young team.

Since making his first Premier League start of the season against Chelsea on Boxing Day, the 20-year-old has supplied three assists and created six chances. For context, that latter total ranks joint-fifth amongst all midfielders over that period.

Such is his importance right now, he didn’t start Saturday’s FA Cup third round tie against Newcastle United, but still came off the bench to inspire a 2-0 win. After a goalless 90 minutes, he finally broke the deadlock in extra time with a good finish, which helped earn him the man of the match award. It wasn’t a pretty win for Arsenal, but it was another performance which emphasised just how important the club’s youngsters are.

What’s noticeable is how much quicker the Gunners move the ball with Smith Rowe in the number 10 role, and having that creative figure in central areas has really helped them click going forward. In fact, since Gameweek 15, no team can improve upon their 6.87 expected goals (xG).

Next up for Arsenal is Crystal Palace, who have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their eight away matches this season. It’s also worth noting that their total of 15 big chances conceded in the last four Gameweeks is more than any other side.

Heading into Blank Gameweek 18, it looks like Smith Rowe will be one of the first names on Arteta’s team sheet on Thursday, and could be a nice differential pick for FPL managers on the lookout for a budget midfielder.

Rob Holding

  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Staying with Arsenal, another cheap differential worth considering is defender Rob Holding (£4.5m).

The 25-year-old has revived his career this season, becoming a regular for the Gunners. He has now started 13 of Arsenal’s 17 league games, including all of the last seven. He was even rewarded with the captain’s armband at Everton last month, highlighting his growing importance to the team.

Since returning to the starting XI against Tottenham Hotspur at the beginning of December, his impact is backed up by the numbers. 

During their last seven matches, Arsenal have afforded their opponents just 18 shots on target. Only Manchester City and Everton have given up fewer during that time, both of whom have played one game less. He carries a bit of goal threat too, as he ranks joint-sixth amongst all defenders for goal attempts, while he’s also posted team leading totals in most of the key defensive metrics.

His partnership alongside Pablo Mari (£4.4m) has helped deliver consecutive clean sheets against Brighton and Hove Albion and West Bromwich Albion, but we may see him pair up with the returning Gabriel (£5.0m) when they take on Crystal Palace at home on Thursday. After that, the North London side will then face Newcastle United.

Holding has established himself as a key player for Arsenal this season, and with an ownership of just 4.8%, could be a useful differential. 

639 Comments Post a Comment
  1. drughi
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    New FH draft, looks sexy I must say

    Leno
    Stones Cancelo Tierney
    Rashford Bruno Son KDB ASR
    Kane DCL

    1. Stormbringer22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      It does indeed. Not overly keen on Arsenal double-defence and would prefer a Newcastle defender in there but that's just me

      1. drughi
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        tierney is a lock, could go leno>darlow ut fancy sheffield to score for once lol

    2. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Incredible team
      FHers are going to smash it this week, jealous!

      1. drughi
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        cheers jihai

    3. Garlana
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      that team value is crazy

      1. drughi
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        decent value this season yes

    4. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Lloris instead or Leno, unless you think Fulham will score?

      1. drughi
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        cant afford unfortunately

    5. Neves say Neves
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Who’s asr?

    6. The Left Duke #3
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      DCL out pal

  2. Niho992
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    TV is awful. Have to choose between Kane and Son on FH

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      No big deal.

      1. Niho992
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Who would you choose?

    2. The Left Duke #3
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      mine is too but you have to have both man home to Fulham

  3. Bubz
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Safe to hit the free hit button yet? I’m still worried something ridiculous could happen 😆

    1. drughi
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      hit it bubz

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Now, finally, you can tap that thing hard.

    3. DeadStarComing
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      No. It's never safe. Any club can still announce a Covid outbreak. I'm being serious - I would wait to activate.

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Correct advice!

    4. Niho992
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Same. I will wait till tomorrow

    5. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Know what you mean! I'm going to press it tonight though.

      Today's changes have made up my mind for me. FH18 was my plan for weeks, then the additional Villa and United fixtures made me consider riding it out with FTs... and now I'm back to definitely pulling the FH trigger this week!

      Just no more postponements please!!

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Or maybe tomorrow after reading the comments above!

      2. DeadStarComing
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        I honestly don't see why waiting 1 more night will hurt. Unless you can't sort it tomorrow I would wait.

        1. PascalCygan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Yep, good point. Don't think there are any marginal price changes which will significantly change things.

    6. Iwantmorepointsthanks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      You've waited so long, why hit it now? Just wait as long as possible

      1. Bubz
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        It just feels nice to be able to lock transfers in lol

    7. Starskyb
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      You can keep making free transfers while on free hit. At worst, you will lose a bit of money to play with, but still only for this week surely?

  4. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Villa-Everton fixture moving a day later is just due to TV reasons? Doesn't seem like 1 extra day impacts the COVID recovery situation much and so could still be cancelled?

    1. Dele
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I think they would have passed 10 days of quarantine by then?

      1. Sun Jihai
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Hopefully - Martinez is annoying to hold with all these blanks

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Training ground was closed on the 7th. It lands on 10 days but I think it has been more than 10 since players tested positive for COVID

  5. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    From GW19 and beyond...
    A) Rashford+Son
    B) Salah+Grealish

    1. Dexters Laboratory
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      B) I'd be most comfortable (C) of those 4

  6. DeadStarComing
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Come on Scout. We need an in depth article on Fulham assets now that they play in GW18 and have a DGW19.

    1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Playing Spurs, Chelsea and Man U think its just a gamble of any sort lol

      1. DeadStarComing
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        It was tongue in cheek. I don't think anyone cares for Fulham 🙂

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I’ve been waiting all week for this. Hulk

  7. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    was bottomed

    a) Lloris & Holding

    b) Leno & Dier

    A or B?

  8. 007 [RoboKlopp]
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    8 players:
    Diaz, Holding, Mitchell
    KDB, Son, Bruno
    Kane, DCL

    FH or not?
    Thanks.

    1. drughi
      • 15 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      would probably save in your case, got all the important big hitters

  9. Sz21
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    1. FH.
    2. WC.

    Currently planning a TC in 19. About 10 DGW'rs.
    McCarthy.
    Robbo, Stones, Dallas, Coufal.
    Salah, Son, Mane, Fernandes.
    Bamford, DCL.
    Forster, Soucek, Brewster, Ferguson.
    1ft, 0.2m ITB.

  10. Dexters Laboratory
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Best Two Defenders for 9.8 (Not from ManC, ManU, Ars)
    Dier/Saiss & Fernandez?

  11. Sarri-ball
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Im happy with news my 10 looks solid for gw chips intact -4 hit

    Degea
    Stones/dias/bellerin/dier
    Son/kdb/rashford/saka
    Kane(c)

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Excellent

  12. HuttonDressedasLahm
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Next international break needs cancelling for many reasons

    1. Dexters Laboratory
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Fact!

  13. R.C.
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Two more important news left guys -

    1. Southampton v Leeds fixture
    2. Villa players affected with Covid

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I don't think we'll hear anything about either before the deadline unfortunately. Southampton Leeds would be sweet if it were moved to this week, though.

      1. R.C.
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        1 we might after FA cup draws

  14. Don Kloppeone
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Apart from @Camzy anyone else planning on punting on Foden this week?

    It's very tempting and means I could get Kane, Son, KDB, Cancelo, Foden and still fit in Laca + DCL/ Rich

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Tempted to switch Grealish for Foden, but since I'm not on a FH I don't really want him in my team long-term!

    2. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I would, but money means it might have to be Gundogan

    3. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Go on. Get him while he is hot.

    4. Releasebreaks
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      As Foden is part of Pep-roulette i would say NO.. too risky
      City non Pep roulette at the moment are: KDB, Dias, Stones, Cancelo.

    5. Dexters Laboratory
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      It's the funds that it frees up for me is the big plus. I've a Rashford draft and a Foden draft.. I'll decide closer to the deadline

  15. JJeyy
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    If Spurs Fulham is re-aranged post deadline will it be in gwk19?

    1. JJeyy
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      arranged

    2. THFC4LIFE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      It’s been arranged for gw18

      1. JJeyy
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        confirmed by end of today?

        1. Rupert The Horse
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          It is literally everywhere on this site.

    3. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Keep up

    4. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Ahahaha. What have you been doing?

      1. JJeyy
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Just got back in, what I missed?

        1. JJeyy
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Oh just saw Spurs tweet

        2. Rupert The Horse
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Either go to page one of this article or any sports news outlet. We’ve all been going bonkers.

  16. Kodap
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Have these players playing this week, meaning I can field 7...

    Dier, Stones, KDB, Bruno, Smith Rowe, Kane & DCL.

    FH, or field 7?

    1. aapoman
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Field 7. You pretty much have all the important players.

  17. Ady87
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Those playing FH this week, is that because you have strong DGW teams? What are you doing next GW?

    I’ve got these guys for this week:

    Mitchell(!) Dias Dier
    KDB(c) Bruno Son Podence(!)
    Wilson Brewster(!)

    Could realistically be 6 players. Non players are : McCarthy Justin Dallas Salah Bamford

    If I FH this week what’s the play next week as I’ve not got a deep enough squad for BB or anything. WC?

    1. scubasmithy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I got 13 DGW (mostly the prime ones like Bruno, Cancelo, Salah, Triple WHU, Triple LEE as it stands Plus Kane and a non playing reserve keeper.....

      For this week I have

      Cancelo, Bruno, KDB, Kane....

      No brainer for me to free hit this week. I am PROBABLY gonna bench boost next week (Kane to Vardy and upgrade spare keeper).....

    2. scubasmithy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      ADY87 - do you have 8 or 9 good DGW players (incl Bruno, Salah, KDB)?

      If so, save bench boost for later in the season, Wildcard seems to big a sacrifice.

    3. abhirup780
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I'd prefer WC in your place and BB in 19.
      1. FH18 BB19
      2. no chip 18 19 or no chip 18 TC19
      3. WC18 BB19
      these are the 3 strategies I feel the optimum as it stands. But could change anytime further ahead in the season.
      I personally feel it will be difficult to setup a good BB team in future unless someone has both FH and WC in hand.

  18. THAT'S LIFE
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Lookman punt?

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      No

  19. swobe
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    is there likely to be another blank gameweek like this one in the future?

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Yep
      29 probably

      1. swobe
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        why is that?

        1. HuttonDressedasLahm
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          FA Cup

  20. Stranger Mings
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Non FHer and help wanted please a) salah and dunne to KDB & stones or b) grealish & dunne to Saka & any Dias or stones ? Cheers

    1. scubasmithy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      A - ALL DAY LONG

      1. Stranger Mings
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers yep agree

        1. Stranger Mings
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 9 months ago

          Hold or keep grealish though as I could do -8 to replace him too ?

  21. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Would you FH this?
    Cancelo,Stones, Holding
    KDB,Fernandes,Son, Riedewald(1-pointer)
    DCL

    Can do Grealish to Son for a hit to get another player but then I won't have the funds to do Son to Salah next week...

    1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      *Grealish to Rashford for a hit I meant

    2. JIMMY TUGGINS
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I don't think it's a definite that Salah outscores Son in 19.

  22. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Leno
    Dias Cancelo Dier
    Bruno (c) KDB Rashford Saka
    Laca Kane Wilson

    Verrips Mitchell Burke Douglas

    FH active 0.1 itb
    Thoughts?

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I'd want Son because 63% of the game own him. Should he return (not unlikely) you're hardly gaining an advantage on non-FHers.

    2. Runaway
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Son over Rashford for me

    3. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Thanks guys

  23. myteamissheeeeeeeet
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Sorry probably been asked a million times but would you FH this team as only have 6 plus Kilman playing?

    Kilman? Cancelo Holding
    Bruno Son KDB
    DCL

    I have 1 FT left as already done Chilwell to Cancelo last week.

    Any help much appreciated!!!

  24. Rains of Castamere
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    On WC and my head is spinning haha. I think I should be alright with 3 City, 2-3 United, Kane and Son, 2 Arsenal, Areola... then DGW players for 19.

    I'll now probably have to bench boost some SGW players (e.g. Dier and Son away at SHU).

    Couldn't have got away without WC/FH this week tbf.

    1. Kabayan
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I have plan to use WC too. Headache, lol

  25. King Kohli
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Can I get away without a FH this week?

    Cancelo Stones Taylor Mitchell
    Kdb Bruno Anguissa
    Kane

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      Defo

      1. King Kohli
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers mate

    2. Rains of Castamere
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      I wouldn't want to go into this week without Son but you should be ok. Can't see Anguisa/Mitchell/Taylor scoring more than 5 in total.

  26. faux_C
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Wow, moving Fulham's game with such short notice completely undermines the competition - huge advantage for Spurs.

  27. Runaway
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Down to 7 with latest rearrangements (after FTs) but still considering to hold FH, willing to take a hit or two though.

    For whom, would you take a hit with the team below?

    -
    Cancelo Dier
    KDB Bruno Son
    Kane Wilson

    (Martinez Forster KWP Dallas Coufal Grealish Raphinha Bamford)
    0 FT, 1.2 ITB

  28. Catastrophe
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    A) DDG, Cancelo, Telles, Foden (McGoldrick, Coady, Yedlin)
    B) Darlow, Dias, Stones, Rashford (Brewster, Mitchell, Douglas*)

    Cheers

  29. OverTinker
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    FH 18 and Wildcard GW 19 seems my plan now

    1. Kabayan
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 9 months ago

      If you can WC for 18 and 19, Save your FH. Will be useful later, imo.

      1. OverTinker
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 9 months ago

        not easy to make such a team which can handle both and I fear I will waste my WC in the process.

  30. Kingtekkerz
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 9 months ago

    Do you think its likely that Villas next fixture will be postponed as well?