Navigating the end of the FPL season with three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser

The reigning FPL champion of India talks both Manchester clubs, Everton, Michail Antonio and Gareth Bale in his musings on the season run-in.

A big Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Double/Triple Gameweek is here, the end of the season is on the horizon and we all have very few transfers left to play with.

In this article, I’m going to discuss a few factors that should be in your consideration while you’re planning your team for the weeks to come.

Let’s talk about Manchester United first. One thing that you should take into account is estimating how reliable they are going to be in Gameweek 38. They play their final game of the season against Wolverhampton Wanderers on May 23 when the Europa League final will be only three days away. Keeping this in mind, I would think that the main United assets will play either 60 minutes or will be rested in that final round so if you are looking to shift them after the triple-header in Gameweek 35, that isn’t the worst idea in my opinion.

When it comes to predicting the Red Devils’ teamsheet for the Triple Gameweek in 35, I am hoping that the 6-2 advantage over Roma leads to some of United’s regular starters either getting some rest or playing limited minutes in the second leg, which increases their chances of more action in the Premier League this busy week. When it comes to Mason Greenwood (£7.1m), Edinson Cavani (£7.9m) and Paul Pogba (£7.6m), the emergence of the French World Cup winner as an option on the left of midfield has made all three of these players prone to rotation – but you’d think they’d be good for at least two starts in the Triple Gameweek ahead, even allowing for a benching.

One team that seems like a good buy irrespective of form at the moment is Everton. They have a good-looking double in Gameweek 35 and, yes, I know their home form is poor but facing Sheffield United and Wolves on their own turf in Gameweeks 36 and 37 just seems like a great opportunity to invest again in Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.5m). One thing that doesn’t change with him is that he is extremely talismanic for Everton.

I looked into the numbers and 46% of the big chances that they have created this season have fallen to him. Despite their perceived lack of form, only five teams have created more big chances than Everton in the last six matches (2.33 per game).

It is also worth noting that Everton’s next four opponents conceded 2.45 big chances per game on average in their last six matches, which bodes well for Calvert-Lewin. He could have easily have had a brace against Aston Villa in Gameweek 34, as well.

A lot of us don’t currently own Manchester City assets, but I think they are well worth a discussion. After they host Chelsea on Saturday they have a six-day break before they face Newcastle United at the start of Gameweek 36 and Pep Guardiola on many occasions has spoken about rhythm. I am expecting the first-choice team to feature more in the last three Gameweeks of the season where they face Newcastle United (a), Brighton and Hove Albion (a) and Everton (h). I expect that Pep will play strong sides in these fixtures as he builds ‘match rhythm’ for his players before the Champions League final. Currently, in the FPL top 10k, the highest owned Manchester City attacker is Ilkay Gundogan (£5.6m) who is only rostered by 4.3% of managers. Here are the top 10k ownership figures of other prominent Manchester City attackers:

There is definitely an opportunity to indulge in some ‘Pep Roulette’ at the end of the season and make some quick differential gains. It is also worth noting that the Champions League final is six days after Gameweek 38 so there isn’t as big a worry about rest as there would be for Europa League finalists.

The ever-enticing battle to make the top four is great news for Fantasy Premier League managers. None of Leicester City, Chelsea, West Ham United or Tottenham Hotspur can afford to take their foot off the gas. Players from three of these clubs are options in my opinion. Leicester do have the FA Cup final blank in Gameweek 36, but Chelsea are the exception for me here given the sheer number of games they potentially have until the end of the season.

The return of Michail Antonio (£6.4m) to West Ham’s attack comes at a really good time as many FPL managers will be looking to shift Kelechi Iheanacho (£6.3m) out in Gameweek 36 when Leicester City blank. The Hammers’ striker had five shots in the box against Burnley and looked really, really good. He has a great end to the season and should definitely be in your consideration when Gameweek 36 arrives.

I was fortunate enough to get Gareth Bale (£9.1m) in my team this Gameweek and, given their fixtures and attacking style of play, I think all the main three Spurs forwards as well as both their full-backs (who were bombing forward on every occasion) are good options for the season run-in despite having only one fixture in Gameweek 35.

The thing I love about Bale is that he’s an elite level finisher and whatever chances he does get, you just expect him to bury them. Tottenham have good fixtures right until the end of the season, and something to play for, so their players look like good purchases especially after this Double Gameweek.

Selling Spurs assets for any Double Gameweek alternative would be very, very difficult especially if Leeds are again going to play without Kalvin Phillips (£4.9m). In his absence, they conceded four big chances against Brighton at the weekend.

That’s it for me for this Gameweek. I’ve been fairly pleased with how the last three rounds have gone for me where I’ve climbed from an overall rank of 1.13 million in Gameweek 31 to 804k at the moment. I’m hoping to finish on a strong note and carry a bit of momentum into next season. I’m certainly looking to do a reflective article at the end of this campaign or before the next one so look out for that. I made so many bad decisions at the start and one common factor stands out to me – overconfidence.

For now, I’m deciding whether to Free Hit in Gameweek 35 or Gameweek 36 and had been waiting on news about the Liverpool double. Now that it’s confirmed that it’s Gameweek 35, I have eight players with two or more fixtures and I might instead be happy to Free Hit in Gameweek 36 where I can target Manchester City, Everton and Spurs players.

I hope you find this article useful. FPL Wire did our longest pod of the season this week with Tom Freeman (who in my opinion is the best FPL manager in the world) and Zophar. You can watch below.