Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 37?

The Preview: GW 37

Hi everyone, welcome to The Preview. Here I bring some clarity to your transfer thoughts heading into the business end of the season as we approach GW37:

(Data taken from FFScout with consent)

Q: In this section, I discuss Man United’s assets in light of Fulham’s latest defensive data.

Fulham’s defensive numbers last four matches v GW24-31

Shots in the box conceded per game: 9.25 v 5.9
Big chances conceded per game: 3.25 v 1.4
Average xG conceded per game: 1.94 v 1.03

You can see that the decline in defensive numbers has been alarming. This coincides with Fulham’s relegation to the Championship being confirmed so you could put it down to the fact that the players have little to play for. Over the past four matches, Fulham are 20th in the league for big chances conceded. To put things into context – between GW24-31, Fulham were 6th best for the same statistic.

This bodes particularly well for those FPL managers who have held on to the likes of Bruno Fernandes and Mason Greenwood. I fully expect Man United to beat Fulham comfortably so it’s a far trickier decision though for those managers who don’t own either. I think Fernandes falls strictly into the “don’t buy don’t sell” category as he has a greater risk of being rotated ahead of the Europa League final. A quick glance through the Man United forums tells me that the significant majority of the fans expect Greenwood to start this week as he was benched against Liverpool last week. I think there’s every chance he can start the Wolves game again if I assume that Man United’s team v Liverpool was their first choice.

Either way, it’s hard to say but given Greenwood’s price and the upside it might be a risk worth taking. Assuming equal minutes for everyone, he is the standout Jota replacement for me but that is a big assumption to make. I say that, because over the past six matches, Greenwood has been matching even Bruno in terms of underlying statistics:

Greenwood v Bruno last six matches

Mins per shot in box: 22.25 v 38.03
Mins per big chance: 118.7 v 228.5
Mins per xGi: 121 v 109

As you can see, Greenwood fares better for goal threat but Bruno pips Greenwood in terms of expected involvement due to his greater assist potential. Luke Shaw, is another Man United asset who I believe could come good this week. Man United are the bookies favorites to keep a clean sheet this week while Fulham have the worst xG from open play in the past four matches. Everything points towards a Shaw haul other than the fact that Man United do tend to concede the odd goal against these kinds of teams – in 18 league meetings against the bottom teams this season, Man United have managed only five clean sheets!

Q: In this section, I cover Newcastle United’s midfielders.

Firstly, I’d like to highlight the improvement in Newcastle’s attacking numbers:

Newcastle attacking numbers last six matches vs their season averages

Big chances per game: 2.67 v 1.27
Average xG per game: 1.62 v 1.06

Newcastle are playing far more freely in recent weeks now that they are safe from relegation. I don’t recall at any stage of the season while studying the data to have found Newcastle to be third in the league for big chances over the past six matches. But that is the case now so their assets are worth consideration ahead of two appealing fixtures v SHU, ful – two sides with practically nothing left to play for. I now run a comparison between two of their in-form midfielders:

Saint Maximin v Willock last two matches*

Shots in the box: 1 v 4
Big chances: 1 v 2
Penalty area touches: 4 v 8

The sample size is limited but I think it is relevant because it’s only fair to compare them ever since Willock has started making the first 11. I have also excluded the Willock penalty from the data as I believe it skews it – Bruce mentioned post game that Joelinton will be first choice and Willock will only take penalties if more than one was awarded in a game. Saint Maximin has the slightly better odds of scoring according to the bookies but the data tells me that Willock is a slightly better pick. What also swings my decision is that Sheffield United and Fulham have conceded far more chances down their left flank this calendar year (144 in total on Willock’s flank) as compared to their right flank (112 in total on Saint Maximin’s flank).

Q: In this section, I cover Salah, Mané and Liverpool’s prospects against Burnley.

Those FPL managers looking for a differential with high upside to gain rank – look no further than Sadio Mané. With Diogo Jota injured and Liverpool in the race for a top four finish, Mané is assured of the security of starts ahead of two very appealing fixtures against bur and CPL. Mané and Salah are both joint-second only to Kane for big chance involvements among all players in the league over the past six matches. Over the same spell, Liverpool are ranked best, by far, for every attacking statistic – whether it be shots in the box, xG, chances created or big chances. Burnley are likely to be missing Nick Pope again in midweek, and their stand-in keeper Peacock-Farrell has conceded 14 times in his four starts this season so chances are that Liverpool’s attack is likely to have some fun again.

Q: In this section, I cover Kane, Bale and Son.

Spurs have been very good at putting the bottom half teams to the sword at home this term. I expect the same trend to continue against AVL. Bale has been a proper flat track bully this season. Each one of his nine goals have come at home and against the bottom half teams. This is particularly promising for him ahead of AVL - exactly the kind of matches that Bale fancies. In last week’s thread, I ran a comparison to compare Kane, Bale and Son in the matches that Bale has started against the bottom ten at home together with Kane, Bale and Son this season because I assumed this trend would continue in the next two homes games for Spurs:

Kane v Son v Bale

Shots in the box: 9 v 2 v 10
Big chances: 3 v 1 v 5
Chances created: 7 v 14 v 5
Big chances created: 2 v 5 v 1

Points to note:

*Son takes up more of a creative role in such matches
*Kane is most likely to be involved either through a goal or assist also having the best xGi over the past six matches in the league
*Bale hogs the majority of the chances of the highest quality

I was proven right in the numbers this week. Son yet again was peripheral registering just the single shot from inside the box. Bale’s presence in the team is definitely a concern for his goal threat. Kane, meanwhile, racked up the highest number of big chances of anyone in the GW.

Villa defensive numbers GW1-20 v GW21-36

Big chances conceded per game: 1.38 v 1.83
Average xG conceded per game: 1.2 v 1.58

As you can see from the above comparison, Aston Villa’s defensive numbers have slumped over recent months as they are conceding chances of higher quality. Even this week they conceded 15 (!!!) shots in the box to a Crystal Palace side who are generally considered to be a conservative team. This should bode well for the Spurs assets heading into their midweek fixture.

Q: In this section, I analyze Lingard and Antonio.

Lingard since joining West Ham (GW22-31) v Lingard GW32-36

Mins per shot in box: 44.27 v 149
Mins per big chance: 159.4 v 447
Mins per xGi: 189.3 v 261.4
Mins per penalty area touch: 22.8 v 37.2

Lingard’s numbers are on the decline as shown above. Over the last five matches, he has had just the two shots in the box from open play with no big chances from open play to his credit. Penalty area touches have dropped too, which is concerning for owners. I wouldn’t sell him if I owned though ahead of a fixture run that reads wba and SOT. West Brom's motivation and morale with relegation being confirmed is questionable while Southampton are second worst for big chances conceded in the past six matches. Lingard’s odds are really good as well so I’m not even averse to the idea of buying him as a possible Jota replacement. According to the odds, he has the best combined odds to do well over the next two fixtures for anyone in Jota’s price range.

Antonio I believe continues to be a top option. Fitness concerns have always been a worry with Antonio but when fit he's been FPL gold. No forward has a better xGi per 90 than Antonio which highlights the exemplary numbers he posts whenever he plays. He’s also top for shots in the six yard box over the past six matches of anyone else in the league so he is getting the chances.

Q: In this section, I discuss Leeds’ resurgence and their assets for the run-in.

Leeds defensive numbers GW1-16 v GW17-36
Big chances conceded per game: 2.81 v 1.8
Average xG conceded per game: 1.72 v 1.43

In my numbers above, I highlight the defensive improvements Leeds have made this calendar year. I still believe they are questionable defensively away from home which is why I wouldn’t want to be relying purely on clean sheets from their defenders:

Leeds defensive numbers home v away (GW17-36)
Big chances conceded per game: 1.2 v 2.6
Average xG conceded per game: 1.19 v 2

You can see from the analysis above that despite all defensive improvements this calendar year, Leeds remain a work-in-progress away from home. Even this week against Burnley, they conceded three big chances but were lucky to come away with a clean sheet due to a combination of poor finishing and excellent goalkeeping. I do think Southampton will score this week given that Leeds defensively are due some regression playing away from home. Nonetheless, Dallas remains a strong option having scored more goals than any other defender this season.

Raphinha v Harrison
(last six matches)

Mins per shot in box: 67 v 58
Mins per big chance: 472 v 173
Mins per chance created: 36 v 37
Mins per big chance created: 236 v 173

Raphinha's numbers have been far superior over the season but of late Harrison has caught up with him which makes Raphinha v Harrison a tricky decision. It was also worth noting that Raphinha took no share of the set pieces v Burnley, which were a major reason as to why his creativity numbers over the season have been so good. The set pieces were shared by Dallas and Harrison instead. Harrison I believe could be a decent alternative to Raphinha if you’re willing to get a piece of the Leeds’ pie ahead of sou,WBA.

Bamford has been subbed before the hour mark in two of the past three fixtures which is a concern for his owners. I still expect him to keep his starting position ahead of Rodrigo, but given Rodrigo’s performance at the weekend, I fear he will continue to eat into Bamford’s minutes making him more susceptible to early substitutions.

Q: In this section, I cover Man City’s midfielders.

In this GW’s thread I did a piece on the Man City midfielders and I can thank Pep for resting his players making sure that I can use the same numbers again:

Man City midfielders:

(Last four PL starts)

Foden v Mahrez v De Bruyne v Gündoğan
Total shots: 11 v 13 v 13 v 7
Big chances: 1 v 2 v 2 v 1
Chances created: 10 v 5 v 13 v 8
Big chances created: 1 v 0 v 2 v 0

Points to note here:

* De Bruyne and Mahrez the biggest goal threats, but Mahrez now on penalties
* De Bruyne with the highest chance of being involved either through goal or assist
* Foden offers a little bit of both so will offer outstanding value
* Gündoğan with the least big chance involvements being far the worst option out of the four

Man City midfielders:

(More recent stats: Last four UCL starts)

Foden v Mahrez v De Bruyne v Gündoğan
Total shots: 12 v 8 v 13 v 3
Big chances: 3 v 2 v 2 v 0
Chances created: 6 v 11 v 4 v 5
Big chances created: 1 v 2 v 1 v 0

Points to note here:

*Foden and Mahrez with the highest number of big chance involvements
*De Bruyne in a false nine role not as involved creatively
*Similar trends witnessed with Gündoğan, no big chance involvements at all

Gündoğan started against Newcastle but yet again his numbers were poor. He recorded no big chance involvements again and his numbers of late have been poor irrespective of the presence or absence of De Bruyne. I was scouring through the Man City forums to get a better assessment of who they expect to start this week. Foden and Mahrez are both expected to start this week – but what happens in GW38 is anyone’s guess. Cancelo too is expected to keep his spot this week. Ferran Torres emerged as the unlikely hero this week but Pep said after the game that he sees him as more of a number nine which further clouds the roulette with Agüero’s farewell hanging in the balance.

Q: What to do with Calvert Lewin?

It’s hard to justify keeping someone who’s been talked of so heavily and then ends up blanking at home to Sheffield United. However, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. I know Everton have an abysmal home record but despite that Calvert Lewin still has the best odds to score among all others in his price range barring Antonio so it makes sense to keep him. It’s also worth noting that Wolves were worst for shots in the box, big chances and xG conceded this week so it’s not as if they have any kind of defensive form coming into this fixture themselves.

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