Can we ‘predict’ goals using a negative xG delta?

Former champion Simon March asks if we can really predict when goals are ‘due’
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O'Reilly | MCI | 5.1m | 120.5% | Very Likely |
| Haaland | MCI | 14.5m | 111.8% | Very Likely |
| Muñoz | CRY | 5.8m | 104.3% | Very Likely |
| Lacroix | CRY | 5.1m | 100.1% | Very Likely |
| Dewsbury-Hall | EVE | 5.1m | 102.4% | Very Likely |
| Raya | ARS | 6.0m | 95.4% | Likely |
| Darlow | LEE | 3.9m | 101.8% | Very Likely |
| Gibbs-White | NFO | 7.6m | 91.7% | Likely |
| Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 5.7m | 80.6% | Maybe |
| Struijk | LEE | 4.3m | 93.1% | Maybe |
| Sarr | CRY | 6.3m | 88.9% | Maybe |
| Groß | BHA | 5.5m | 89.2% | Maybe |
| Mitchell | CRY | 5.0m | 93.3% | Unlikely |
| Justin | LEE | 3.9m | 91.0% | Unlikely |
| Aaronson | LEE | 5.4m | 88.8% | Unlikely |
| Isak | LIV | 10.3m | 88.9% | Unlikely |
| Leno | FUL | 4.9m | 78.3% | Unlikely |
| Gakpo | LIV | 7.3m | 74.6% | Unlikely |
| Ndiaye | EVE | 6.2m | 72.7% | Unlikely |
| Verbruggen | BHA | 4.5m | 67.9% | Unlikely |
| Aït-Nouri | MCI | 5.7m | 66.2% | Unlikely |
| Richards | CRY | 4.4m | 65.2% | Unlikely |
| Alderete | SUN | 4.1m | 64.3% | Unlikely |
| Wan-Bissaka | WHU | 4.1m | 62.3% | Unlikely |
| Ngumoha | LIV | 4.3m | 61.8% | Unlikely |
| Eze | ARS | 7.2m | 51.6% | Unlikely |
| Brobbey | SUN | 5.3m | 61.5% | Unlikely |
| Frimpong | LIV | 5.7m | 61.2% | Unlikely |
| Truffert | BOU | 4.7m | 57.6% | Unlikely |
| Shaw | MUN | 4.5m | 59.6% | Unlikely |
| Tavernier | BOU | 5.4m | 56.9% | Unlikely |
| N.Williams | NFO | 4.8m | 55.7% | Unlikely |
| Bijol | LEE | 3.9m | 54.8% | Unlikely |
| F.Kadıoğlu | BHA | 4.4m | 52.3% | Unlikely |
| Gomez | BHA | 4.9m | 53.1% | Unlikely |
| Ødegaard | ARS | 7.8m | 50.8% | Unlikely |
| Hermansen | WHU | 4.2m | 50.8% | Unlikely |
| Aina | NFO | 4.7m | 49.8% | Unlikely |
| Saliba | ARS | 6.1m | 41.1% | Unlikely |
| Beto | EVE | 5.0m | 50.8% | Unlikely |
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semenyo | MCI | 8.2m | 106.5% | Very Likely |
| Raúl | FUL | 6.1m | 102.6% | Very Likely |
| Hall | NEW | 5.4m | 105.9% | Very Likely |
| Gravenberch | LIV | 5.5m | 106.0% | Very Likely |
| Ekitiké | LIV | 9.1m | 104.9% | Very Likely |
| Szoboszlai | LIV | 7.1m | 94.8% | Likely |
| Merino | ARS | 5.4m | 98.5% | Maybe |
| Garner | EVE | 5.3m | 89.9% | Maybe |
| Tchaouna | BUR | 4.8m | 96.5% | Maybe |
| Emenalo | CHE | 4.5m | 92.0% | Maybe |
| Wilson | FUL | 6.0m | 76.9% | Unlikely |
| Mayenda | SUN | 5.2m | 92.7% | Unlikely |
| Piroe | LEE | 4.9m | 93.4% | Unlikely |
| Reijnders | MCI | 5.0m | 90.2% | Unlikely |
| Calafiori | ARS | 5.6m | 90.1% | Unlikely |
| Andrey Santos | CHE | 4.5m | 88.9% | Unlikely |
| Grealish | EVE | 6.3m | 88.9% | Unlikely |
| McAidoo | MCI | 4.5m | 88.4% | Unlikely |
| Cullen | BUR | 4.9m | 88.3% | Unlikely |
| Slonina | CHE | 3.9m | 88.4% | Unlikely |
| Longstaff | LEE | 4.8m | 88.1% | Unlikely |
| Salmon | ARS | 4.0m | 85.1% | Unlikely |
| John | NFO | 4.0m | 84.5% | Unlikely |
| Trafford | MCI | 4.5m | 83.8% | Unlikely |
| J.Timber | ARS | 6.1m | 77.7% | Unlikely |
| Johnson | CRY | 6.5m | 83.4% | Unlikely |
| Dalot | MUN | 4.6m | 79.0% | Unlikely |
| Estève | BUR | 3.9m | 80.5% | Unlikely |
| Mee | MUN | 3.9m | 75.9% | Unlikely |
| Byfield | TOT | 4.0m | 74.5% | Unlikely |
| Cairns | LEE | 3.9m | 74.2% | Unlikely |
| Steele | BHA | 4.2m | 72.6% | Unlikely |
| Strand Larsen | CRY | 5.9m | 68.8% | Unlikely |
| Kilman | WHU | 4.1m | 70.4% | Unlikely |
| O.Dango | BRE | 5.8m | 59.3% | Unlikely |
| Sánchez | CHE | 4.8m | 68.3% | Unlikely |
| Mainoo | MUN | 4.7m | 70.2% | Unlikely |
| Obi | MUN | 4.2m | 65.3% | Unlikely |
| Woltemade | NEW | 6.7m | 65.2% | Unlikely |
| Ebere | EVE | 4.4m | 66.0% | Unlikely |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up | ARS | C, Vs | |
| Down | MCI | B | |
| Up | EVE | C | |
| Up | SUN | A | |
| Down | BHA | B | |
| No Change | LEE | B, £ | |
| No Change | CRY | B |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up | ARS | B, Vs | |
| Down | MCI | A | |
| Up | EVE | B | |
| Up | LIV | B | |
| Up | SUN | C | |
| No Change | CRY | A | |
| Down | BHA | A | |
| Down | LEE | B, £ | |
| Down | BOU | C, £ | |
| No Change | NEW | C | |
| No Change | AVL | C |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MUN | A | |
| No Change | MCI | C | |
| Up | ARS | C, Vs | |
| Up | FUL | B | |
| Up | LIV | A | |
| No Change | CRY | C, Rest | |
| No Change | AVL | B | |
| Up | NFO | A, VsX | |
| Up | EVE | B, £ | |
| No Change | NFO | C, £ | |
| Down | CHE | C | |
| Down | BOU | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MCI | B | |
| Up | BRE | A | |
| Up | WHU | A | |
| Up | AVL | A | |
| Down | BHA | B | |
| Down | LEE | C | |
| Down | CHE | C |

Former champion Simon March asks if we can really predict when goals are ‘due’

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