Should we always stick to the plan in FPL?

Former FPL champion Simon March looks at the phenomenon of ‘plan continuation bias’
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel | ARS | 7.1m | 103.2% | Very Likely |
| Dewsbury-Hall | EVE | 5.1m | 100.9% | Very Likely |
| Okafor | LEE | 5.5m | 95.4% | Likely |
| Mitchell | CRY | 5.0m | 98.6% | Maybe |
| Darlow | LEE | 3.9m | 87.3% | Unlikely |
| Tarkowski | EVE | 5.7m | 90.1% | Unlikely |
| Isak | LIV | 10.3m | 86.4% | Unlikely |
| Gakpo | LIV | 7.3m | 87.7% | Unlikely |
| Casemiro | MUN | 5.7m | 86.9% | Unlikely |
| Ndiaye | EVE | 6.2m | 86.0% | Unlikely |
| Justin | LEE | 3.9m | 83.5% | Unlikely |
| Cherki | MCI | 6.4m | 72.8% | Unlikely |
| Leno | FUL | 4.9m | 80.6% | Unlikely |
| Lacroix | CRY | 5.1m | 79.0% | Unlikely |
| M.Salah | LIV | 14.0m | 84.8% | Unlikely |
| Struijk | LEE | 4.3m | 75.0% | Unlikely |
| Aaronson | LEE | 5.4m | 75.3% | Unlikely |
| Alderete | SUN | 4.1m | 73.1% | Unlikely |
| Muñoz | CRY | 5.8m | 65.8% | Unlikely |
| Wan-Bissaka | WHU | 4.1m | 68.3% | Unlikely |
| Frimpong | LIV | 5.7m | 68.2% | Unlikely |
| Beto | EVE | 5.0m | 67.9% | Unlikely |
| Shaw | MUN | 4.5m | 65.7% | Unlikely |
| Brobbey | SUN | 5.3m | 65.6% | Unlikely |
| Aït-Nouri | MCI | 5.7m | 65.3% | Unlikely |
| Richards | CRY | 4.4m | 64.5% | Unlikely |
| Ngumoha | LIV | 4.3m | 64.5% | Unlikely |
| Sarr | CRY | 6.3m | 63.2% | Unlikely |
| Groß | BHA | 5.5m | 59.5% | Unlikely |
| N.Williams | NFO | 4.8m | 60.1% | Unlikely |
| Virgil | LIV | 6.2m | 55.8% | Unlikely |
| Hermansen | WHU | 4.2m | 53.8% | Unlikely |
| Bijol | LEE | 3.9m | 52.4% | Unlikely |
| Aina | NFO | 4.7m | 52.4% | Unlikely |
| O'Reilly | MCI | 5.1m | 43.0% | Unlikely |
| Ødegaard | ARS | 7.8m | 50.7% | Unlikely |
| Gomez | BHA | 4.9m | 47.8% | Unlikely |
| M.Fernandes | WHU | 5.5m | 47.1% | Unlikely |
| Bassey | FUL | 4.4m | 45.9% | Unlikely |
| Havertz | ARS | 7.3m | 46.3% | Unlikely |
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro | CHE | 7.6m | 108.2% | Very Likely |
| Thiaw | NEW | 5.1m | 103.9% | Very Likely |
| Semenyo | MCI | 8.2m | 101.6% | Very Likely |
| Merino | ARS | 5.4m | 100.2% | Very Likely |
| Andrey Santos | CHE | 4.5m | 100.3% | Very Likely |
| Piroe | LEE | 4.9m | 99.5% | Maybe |
| Emenalo | CHE | 4.5m | 98.5% | Maybe |
| Longstaff | LEE | 4.8m | 98.3% | Maybe |
| Senesi | BOU | 5.2m | 98.0% | Maybe |
| Welbeck | BHA | 6.3m | 98.2% | Maybe |
| Reijnders | MCI | 5.0m | 97.3% | Maybe |
| Palmer | CHE | 10.5m | 95.9% | Maybe |
| Tchaouna | BUR | 4.8m | 96.5% | Maybe |
| Mayenda | SUN | 5.2m | 94.8% | Maybe |
| Estève | BUR | 3.9m | 94.3% | Unlikely |
| Sánchez | CHE | 4.8m | 93.2% | Unlikely |
| Slonina | CHE | 3.9m | 93.1% | Unlikely |
| Cullen | BUR | 4.9m | 93.0% | Unlikely |
| Grealish | EVE | 6.3m | 92.7% | Unlikely |
| McAidoo | MCI | 4.5m | 92.7% | Unlikely |
| Guéhi | MCI | 5.1m | 93.0% | Unlikely |
| Dorgu | MUN | 4.1m | 88.5% | Unlikely |
| Trafford | MCI | 4.5m | 88.6% | Unlikely |
| Johnson | CRY | 6.5m | 87.9% | Unlikely |
| Salmon | ARS | 4.0m | 88.0% | Unlikely |
| John | NFO | 4.0m | 86.6% | Unlikely |
| Ekitiké | LIV | 9.1m | 82.4% | Unlikely |
| Gravenberch | LIV | 5.5m | 82.3% | Unlikely |
| Gusto | CHE | 4.9m | 83.6% | Unlikely |
| Hall | NEW | 5.4m | 80.7% | Unlikely |
| Enzo | CHE | 6.5m | 79.6% | Unlikely |
| Mee | MUN | 3.9m | 79.2% | Unlikely |
| Steele | BHA | 4.2m | 78.4% | Unlikely |
| Cairns | LEE | 3.9m | 78.7% | Unlikely |
| Mainoo | MUN | 4.7m | 74.5% | Unlikely |
| Byfield | TOT | 4.0m | 75.8% | Unlikely |
| Kilman | WHU | 4.1m | 71.1% | Unlikely |
| Webster | BHA | 4.4m | 70.5% | Unlikely |
| Ebere | EVE | 4.4m | 69.8% | Unlikely |
| Caicedo | CHE | 5.7m | 66.5% | Unlikely |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up | ARS | C, Vs | |
| Down | MCI | B | |
| Up | EVE | C | |
| Up | SUN | A | |
| Down | BHA | B | |
| No Change | LEE | B, £ | |
| No Change | CRY | B |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up | ARS | B, Vs | |
| Down | MCI | A | |
| Up | EVE | B | |
| Up | LIV | B | |
| Up | SUN | C | |
| No Change | CRY | A | |
| Down | BHA | A | |
| Down | LEE | B, £ | |
| Down | BOU | C, £ | |
| No Change | NEW | C | |
| No Change | AVL | C |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MUN | A | |
| No Change | MCI | C | |
| Up | ARS | C, Vs | |
| Up | FUL | B | |
| Up | LIV | A | |
| No Change | CRY | C, Rest | |
| No Change | AVL | B | |
| Up | NFO | A, VsX | |
| Up | EVE | B, £ | |
| No Change | NFO | C, £ | |
| Down | CHE | C | |
| Down | BOU | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MCI | B | |
| Up | BRE | A | |
| Up | WHU | A | |
| Up | AVL | A | |
| Down | BHA | B | |
| Down | LEE | C | |
| Down | CHE | C |

Former FPL champion Simon March looks at the phenomenon of ‘plan continuation bias’

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