Dubbed this tournaments ‘Group of Death’, Group G sees Brazil, Portugal, The Ivory Coast and North Korea battling it out for a place in the second round. While Brazil are strong favorites to win the group, Portugal and The Ivory Coast will also fancy their chances and much will rest on the shoulders of top Fantasy targets like Didier Drogba, Cristiano Ronaldo, Kaka and Luis Fabiano.
Neutrals will be hoping for lots of goals from the wealth of attacking talent on display, but if recent form in the qualifying rounds is anything to go by, it is the defenders who could prove to be the best Fantasy selections from this group. In 56 qualifying games, the four teams only conceded 21 goals between them and of these, eight were let in by Brazil.
While many people have already labeled North Korea as the whipping boys of the group, 10 clean sheets out of 14 in qualifying, and an impressive 2-2 draw against Greece in a warm up game suggest they are a much better team than their FIFA world ranking would have you believe. With the lowest average player cost of all the teams in the FIFA game, and a settled and predictable starting XI, they could be a good source of budget picks to fill those last few gaps in your squad…
Round one of the group stages kicks off on June 15, and sees Ivory Coast play Portugal in the early game; Brazil take on North Korea in an evening kick off. While that game looks a formality, it will give us a chance to really look at how the Korean’s defensive strategy holds up against a strong attacking team. Ivory Coast against Portugal meanwhile is THE game of the group with the losers requiring a victory over Brazil to stand a chance of progressing. The other key game from a Fantasy perspective will be in round three, with Brazil facing Portugal. Depending on other results of course, this is the fixture that will probably decide the group winners. Both sides will be looking to put out a full strength side in their final game then, while teams in other groups may well be afforded the luxury of resting key players in preparation for the second round.
If results go to form, the winners of this group will go on to face Chile, followed by possible ties with Holland, England and Spain. The runners up here meanwhile would likely face Spain in the knockout phase with Italy, Argentina and Holland as potential oppoents to follow. Whatever happens in this group then, the top two face a rocky route to the final.
Brazil
While Brazil’s fluid football is sure to provide plenty of goals in this tournament, it is their defensive qualities which are the real revelation under Dunga’s management. An excellent analysis of the Brazilian system is given here, the key points from a Fantasy perspective being the freedom given to the full backs, Maicon and Michel Bastos. Luis Fabiano plays as a central target man, with three strong attacking players surging forwards from behind, led by Kaka in the most advanced position. Goals in qualifying have come from a variety of players, although Kaka’s five, and Fabiano’s nine were the pick of the bunch.
While the three attacking players behind Fabiano will probably be Elano, Kaka and Robinho, there are several options available to Dunga and we can expect to see some rotation. Ramires has featured in several of Brazil’s qualifiers in place of Elano although the former City man looks to have regained his place. Two goals by Ramires in their last friendly however, makes this position very uncertain and I’d avoid both. Nilmar has also mounted a late challenge for a starting spot by scoring five goals in five games, including a hat-trick against Chile. We will need to see whether Nilmar can keep first choice Robinho out of the side, but he is certainly one to watch. Kaka looks to be the safest pick of the bunch, and as the most attacking of all the midfielders, we can expect plenty of goals, assists and attacking bonus points to justify his lofty price tag.
The Fantasy Targets…
Julio Cesar
A Drogba-less Ivory coast, a mis-firing Portugal, a relatively toothless North Korea and a Brazilian side that has finally learned how to defend. All the logic seems to point to the Brazilian keeper having a pretty easy ride in the group stages. At 7.5 in the FIFA game, he is slightly cheaper than both Casillas and Buffon, and is probably the pick of the three. He is a slight injury doubt having picked up a back injury in preparation for the tournament but Dunga has only today indicated that he expects Cesar to be fit for the opener.
Maicon / Michel Bastos
Brazil’s embarrassment of riches means that the most expensive right back in the history of the game, Barcelona’s Daniel Alves cannot even get a regular starting spot in the team, with Inter’s Maicon preferred in his natural position. Experiments playing Alves on the left have been largely unsuccessful, so the left back spot appears to fall to Michel Bastos, a natural winger and awesome free kick taker, who gives a strong attacking alternative to Maicon’s runs down the right. Expect both to supplement defensive returns with attacking bonus points and potentially get on the scoresheet too. Both earned assists in the recent 5-1 demolition of Tanzania.
Kaka
The most attacking of all Brazil’s midfielders, Kaka offers so much to Brazil and despite disappointing form in domestic games since moving to Madrid, he will surely rack up the goals (and Fantasy points). The fact that he has only made 33 appearances for Madrid last term may actually work in his favour in terms of freshness for the tournament and reports from the Brazil camp indicate that he packing in the training sessions to build up his sharpness. A threat when given space to shoot from distance, Kaka’s link up play with Fabiano will be the key to any success and if Brazils attacking game clicks, he could be the player of the tournament. Paddy Power currently have him at 14/1 for that crown, the joint second favourite overall with Spain’s Xavi.
Luis Fabiano
The focal point of Brazil’s attacks, Luis Fabiano has been a revelation since being reintroduced to the Brazil lineup by Dunga in 2007. His excellent hold up play allows the likes of Kaka and Robinho the space to play in and around oppositions defences, and is a clinical finisher bagging 9 goals in his 11 starts in qualifying.
Nilmar
A late challenger to Robinho’s left wing spot, Nilmar’s club performances for Villareal have seen him emerge as a genuine contender for a starting place, and he played 90 minutes in each of the last three qualifying games for Brazil (albeit after Brazil had secured qualification). In his five games during the qualifying campaign, Nilmar scored five times including a hat-trick against Chile and offers a very strong alternative up front. Robinho’s two goals in the recent win over Tanzania has clouded the matter however.
Portugal
Portugal come into this tournament third in the FIFA world rankings, so to put them in the ‘dark horse’ bracket might seem a little absurd. However, recent form and the apparent inability to get the best out of Cristiano Ronaldo, has demoted them to 9th favourites on Paddy Power, just one spot ahead of fellow group G challengers Ivory Coast and they face a tough challenge to make it out of the group. Assuming they finish second behind Brazil, they will likely play neighbours Spain in the second round, and so it’s difficult to see them doing better than their fourth place finish in the last tournament.
Although the golden generation of Portuguese football seems to be fading, Portugal are still capable of beating anyone on their day. The technical abilities of Ronaldo, Simao and Deco are a match for any Brazilian, so they will feel that topping the group is achievable if they can play to their potential in the final game against the South Americans.
Defensively sound, only Albania and Denmark managed to score past them in qualifying, and they kept an impressive nine clean sheets in 12 games. Bruno Alves and Ricardo Carvalho have formed a strong partnership in the centre, and the surprise use of Pepe in an unfamiliar midfield holding role has added extra steel to an already solid back line.
Up front is a different story however; their stuttering attack saw them draw three of their qualifiers 0-0 when they really should have won comfortably, and they slumped to an embarrassing 0-0 draw against former colony Cape Verde in a warm up game last month. Improved performances against Cameroon and Mozambique saw them score three times in each game, but Ronaldo’s lack of international form is a major concern; he hasn’t scored for Portugal in a competitive game since Euro 2008, and getting the best from the captain and main playmaker will be crucial to their hopes of succeeding here.
Nani has been ruled out of the tournament due to a shoulder injury which will only add to their attacking woes but thankfully they have an experienced replacement in Simao so it shouldn’t affect them too much. Their opening game against the Ivory Coast will be key to their chances, so they had better get it right quickly.
The Fantasy Targets…
Bruno Alves/Ricardo Carvalho
The formidable partnership of Porto’s Alves and Chelsea’s Carvalho helped Portugal keep seven clean sheets in a row before the Cameroon game, and we can expect some decent defensive points from these two. Although hard to split them Fantasy wise, I feel Alves’ two goals in qualifying and cheaper price tag make him the slightly better pick.
Pepe
Real Madrid’s Pepe suffered a season ending injury in December 2009, but has been training with the Portugal squad, and could feature in the opening game here. A central defender at Madrid, he has been used as a defensive midfielder in the Portugal side so he could be in a great position to pick up some defensive bonus points (holding midfielders are generally top of the OPTA stats charts for tackles made), while still being eligible for full defender clean sheet points. A risky pick given his injury and lack of playing time, but one to watch.
Fabio Coentrao
Benfica’s converted winger Fabio Coentrao looks to have nudged out Duda to claim the left back spot, and he will have an important overlapping role to play behind Ronaldo or Simao on the left flank, as both will be looking to come inside onto their favoured right foot. His position in the team is not guaranteed, so he does represent a slight risk but considering his attacking threat and 4.0 price tag in the FIFA game, he could prove to be one of the bargains of the tournament.
Ronaldo
A firm favourite amongst Fantasy managers everywhere, Ronaldo is bound to attract a lot of attention across all formats. His lack of international goals is worrying but he has still been in fine form for Madrid this season netting 33 times, and he will surely shake off his international hoodoo here to be a real contender for the Golden Boot. There was talk that Ronaldo could be deployed up front as a lone striker, but Nani’s injury will now mean that Ronaldo will most likely play on the left wing, and crossover with Simao during the game.
It will be interesting to see what Ronaldo can do with the new Jabulani ball. Ronaldo’s skill at ‘earning’ and taking free kicks could swing an otherwise tight game. Let’s hope we don’t get a repeat of his ‘Winker’ antics that caused him to lose his “Best Young Player” award at the last tournament, though.
Simao
In Nani’s absence, Simao will surely be a shoe in for the flank opposite Ronaldo, although he also offers an option upfront if required. He has played an incredible 59 domestic games this season, so fitness is clearly not a concern and despite a disappointing seven goals in those games, he still offers a decent goal threat. At Benfica, he averaged 16 goals per season and he was Portugal’s top scorer in qualifying with four goals.
Liedson
Brazilian born Liedson only became a Portuguese citizen last summer but was immediately called up by Quieroz to try to help out in attack, although it’s hard to see how he will be the answer to Portugal’s lack of firepower up front. While his link up play and movement is excellent, he isn’t a world class finisher and lacks the strength and height to hold the ball up well for onrushing midfielders. His returns at club level are still good however, hitting 163 goals in 287 games for Sporting.
Ivory Coast
You have to feel for The Ivory Coast. For the second World Cup in a row, they are the most fancied African side yet find themselves drawn in a very tough group. After struggling against Holland and Argentina last time out, they will be hoping to go at least one stage further this year. Much will depend on whether Didier Drogba can recover from his arm injury in time to play a part in the group stages, as Portsmouth’s Aruna Dindane hardly offers the same threat at the big Chelsea forward. Sven Goran Eriksson’s first real challenge as manager then, will be how to reshape the team to deal with his absence if he doesn’t make it.
If The Ivory Coast manage to bag second place in the group, their probable opponents being Spain makes it hard to see them going any further than the second round. While they have a solid defence and good spine to the team, it’s hard to see them not being passed off the pitch by Brazil and Spain, simply because they lack any real creative spark in the midfield area.
The Fantasy Targets…
Kolo Toure
The Ivorians will need to turn to the experience of the City man to bind the defence and he will doubtless see some busy times back there for the Elephants. Don’t expect too many clean sheets from Fantasy investment – thanks largely to issues in goal where Boubacar Barry is prone to error. However, Toure could return decent points from tackles, interceptions and clearances if your game considers these in their scoring. He even got himself on the scoresheet in the recent 2-0 win over Japan.
Yaya Toure
Outside of Drogba, Yaya Toure is arguably the Ivory Coast’s best and most influential player. He plays in a much more advanced role than he does with Barcelona, and his two goals in qualifying show that he cannot be written off as a Fantasy prospect, despite being better known for his holding midfield duties at club level.
Gervinho
Named as the best African player in the French league last season, the 23-year-old Lille winger will be looking to make a name for himself at this tournament in Drogba’s absence and could be another bargain buy at just 6.0 in the FIFA game. It’s still unknown how Sven will adapt to Drogba’s absence so there is a possibility he could be moved into a central role with Kader Keita taking his place on the wing.
Didier Drogba
Coming off the back of his best ever season at Chelsea, and a fantastic qualifying campaign where he scored six goals in five games, It will be devastating to the Ivory Coast’s chances if he doesn’t recover in time to play a part here. The latest news on Drogba’s injury suggests that surgery was successful and he will be fit enough to take part, but we will have to wait to see just how soon that will be. If the Ivory Coast are still in with a chance of qualifying in the last game, Drogba could be a good transfer target to play in the last round, as they will take on North Korea looking to get a few goals.
Korea DPR
While Kim Jong Il injects himself with the blood of young virgins, his North Korean side will be looking to achieve the near impossible task of qualifying from the toughest group of the tournament. Their heroic achievements in the 1966 world cup was the last time they reached the finals, and they did incredibly well, beating Italy and then leading 3-0 in the quarter finals against Portugal before being they eventually collapsed to a 5-3 defeat. This time round they are the lowest ranked team of the tournament and most people have already written them off, but in fact, they are a surprisingly well organised side and their defensive qualities could see them grind out a shock result. Seeing as their own fans aren’t allowed to travel to South Africa, whatever happens, they are sure to collect a cult following amongst neutral fans, as they did back in 1966.
Their defensive 3-3-2-1-1 formation is well documented here, so we should focus on potential Fantasy picks rather than tactics. As the highest priced player in the side is just 3.0 in the FIFA game, and several first team players are just 1.0 or 1.5, they won’t be competing with the top rated players for a starting place, but there are still a couple of players that could fill the last couple of spots in your squad.
It’s certainly worth considering the impact of the defensive bonus points for defensive ‘saves’, tackles and clearances here. If the games go as expected and Korea park the bus, we could see 20-30 crosses and shots made by their opponents of which the vast majority will be blocked or cleared. Four hoofed clearances is as good as a clean sheet in the FIFA game, and in this case a Korean defender could well outscore a Brazilian one, despite letting in a goal or two. Their attacking players can’t be overlooked either, they managed 16 shots in a 2-2 draw with former European champions Greece recently, and Jong Tae-Se scored two excellent goals. However, the recent 3-1 defeat to Nigeria was far from an ideal warm-up – Jong Tae-Se did at least keep his scoring record up in that one.
The Fantasy Targets…
Cha Jong-Hyok / Pak Chol-Jin
Two bargain bucket defenders who look to have a pretty settled starting role, with 14 and 12 starts respectively in their 14 qualifiers. Pak Chol-Jin sits in the middle of the three central defenders, while Cha Jong-Hyok plays as a defensive full back.
Hong Yong-Jo
Currently plying his trade with Rostov in the Russian Premier League, Hong Yong-Jo will be a key figure in the Korean camp with his experience in European football. The skipper of the side, he’s a stocky and busy forward who is difficult to disposses and has a decent shot in his locker. He scored 9 goals in his first 11 appearances for the national side, four of which came in qualifying. He’ll on spot-kicks too.
Jong Tae-Se
A real bargain striker at just 2.5 in the FIFA game, the ‘Rooney of Asia’ is possibly Korea’s best chance of getting goals. Between him and club captain Hong Yong-Jo, they will create a few chances and if he can finish them like he did in the Greece game, he could pick up another couple of goals here. He’s certainly built expectation – Jong Tae-Se goes into the tournament having promised to score a goal-a-game.