Analysing The EA SPORTS Index
Filed under: Statistics - Posted by: Andy
As we highlighted around the launch of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, this season’s Bonus Points are being gathered from a very different source.
The days of Fantasy managers calling foul when a player sporting an extravagant haircut (see: Chris Eagles, David Luiz, etc for perfect examples) appeared to win favour simply by catching the eye of the “man in the stand” – the ever elusive Press Association representative – are now dead.
This season the FPL are dealing in cold hard statistics; numbers will be crunched and repurposed via the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index – a figure dealt to each player after every game based on six key factors (winning, performance, appearance time, goals, assists and clean sheets). That new Gameweek stat will now decide the destination of the much-maligned supplementary scoring; we’re no longer at the mercy of a shadowy figure with the dubious outlook – a good thing surely?
The truth is – the jury is still out on that. While we’re likely to have a decent insight on how things will work once the season is underway, right now we can only speculate on how this change will evolve matters.
There are some clues available; a few paths we can tentatively tread right now to help anticipate how the Bonus Points will be steered from next weekend onwards. We’ve done some digging through the data already publicly available to explore how matters may pan out and, in doing so, can present you with more than a few theories to ponder prior to Saturday’s deadline.
Looking at last season’s top 25 EA SPORTS PPI scorers, the first impression is extremely encouraging. Names like Vincent Kompany (7th), Joe Hart (11th), Petr Cech (12th) and Sylvain Distin (24th), are high in the rankings, suggesting that such players will benefit from a belated extra boost in their Gameweek earnings.
Dig a little deeper however and these early hopes seem a little forlorn.
Kompany and Hart, for example, started 75 out of 76 games between them, with an average EA SPORTS PPI of 14 and 13.2 respectively. Right now those scores mean very little. We know that, over the season, both players fared well – that they were obviously very consistent in their Index scoring. However, when push comes to shove, picking up Bonus Points is about being one of the top three scorers on the index in any given fixture – consistent scoring week to week will mean nothing – “explosive” performances in a single Gameweek is what we’re looking for. This is where attacking players appear to hold a firm advantage with their decisive interventions at the business end of the field.
Before we switch our attention to those particular players, let’s dwell on Kompany as an example a little longer.
Much is expected of the City centre-back this season; here is a player who rarely threatens goal and assists but is often the mainstay of a rock solid City backline. With an initial price of 6.0 in the FPL, Kompany looks good value but, in saying that, we’re still anticipating Bonus points will help him justify that valuation.
As already mentioned, Kompany earned a very respectable average score on the EA SPORTS PPI of 14 points per game last season- however, it’s his range of scoring that is key to his chances of earning a top three Index spot in any given match. If this range of scoring over the season is between 7 and 28 points in the Index, can we be sure that this will be enough to finish above the likes of David Silva, Carlos Tevez and Sergio Aguero on a regular basis?
To assess this further we analysed the first ten EA SPORTS PPI “Team of the Week’s” in an attempt to decipher some trends within the scoring. We start with the top scoring goalkeepers of weeks one through ten…
| Goalkeeper | PPI Score | Goals | Assists | Clean Sheets | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hahnemann | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Carson | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Al-Habsi | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Gilks | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Hart | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Green | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Cech | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Howard | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Cech | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Reina | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
Looking at the table above you can see the best goalkeeper in each of the first ten weeks of action scored between 19 and 26 on the EA SPORTS PPI. Averaged out across the ten weeks this gives us a score of 22.1 points as an average return for a top rated stopper.
These numbers appear to show there is a definite ceiling to a keeper’s Index score. However, on initial inspection, given that we know that Kompany averaged a score of 14 points a week, this still look promising – the early impression is that keepers may well be in line for more Bonus next season. Once we start analysing the outfield positions however, the complexion changes.
| Defender | PPI Score | Goals | Assists | Clean Sheets | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baptiste | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| A. Cole | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Yes |
| Hangeland | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Williamson | 29 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Yes |
| L. Young | 37 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Agger | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Koscielny | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Samba | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Hutton | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Yes |
| Samba | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Jara | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Upson | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Alex | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Distin | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Coloccini | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Bridge | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Ridgewell | 37 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Bosingwa | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Vidic | 45 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Terry | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
When we examine twenty of the top forty defenders from the first ten weeks of the season you can immediately see an increase in the range of scoring. Nemanja Vidic earned 45 EA SPORTS PPI points in a single week, while the lowest in our sample is 19 from Wayne Bridge – the same as our tenth rated keeper Petr Cech.
The “top performing” defenders look like they pick up between 24 and 37 Index points in a given Gameweek. The average score the top of the level defenders (using the sample of all 40 from the first ten weeks, not just the 20 listed above) returns an EA SPORTS Index score of 28.1. Indication that defenders are at least more likely to get Bonus Points than a goalkeeper on your average Gameweek. Little change there then.
Significantly, from the Defenders table above, we can already see that goalscoring is a key factor behind a strong Index haul. The top scoring defenders over the first 10 Gameweeks all claimed goals and Alex and Jara were ranked amongst them even without earning a clean sheet.
There are, of course, and always will be, exceptions to the rule. Chris Samba earned 30 Index points in Gameweek 3, despite failing to register any of the key factors. From the data available, however, such occurrences appear to be a rarity.
Already we’re beginning to suspect that goals and assists, plus of course a winning team performance, will be the key contributors. When we switch our focus to the attacking players, this hypothesis appears to be cemented further.
| Mid/Forward | PPI Score | Goals | Assists | Clean Sheets | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drogba | 68 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| S. Petrov | 34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Carroll | 65 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Barry | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Walcott | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Etuhu | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Essien | 52 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Etherington | 32 | 0 | 2 | 0 | Yes |
| Berbatov | 60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | No |
| Van Der Vaart | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Thomas | 38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Emerton | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Varney | 40 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Gomez | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| N’Zogbia | 42 | 2 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Silva | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Hernandez | 44 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Song | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Yes |
| Ameobi | 57 | 2 | 2 | 0 | Yes |
| Yakubu | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
Perhaps the most surprising factor of all, hidden amongst the minutiae of the EA SPORTS PPI definition, is the fact that clean sheets contribute towards a midfielder’s – and even a striker’s Index tally. The definition states that these are weighted according to position, but the fact that a striker has any benefit from a clean sheet whatsoever immediately diminishes the value of a defender in comparison to their attacking comrades.
To think Mario Balotelli could be more likely to pick up FPL bonus points now because of work predominantly done by the likes of Kompany, only strengthens the case for attacking players within winning teams.
As you can see on the table above – the range of returns here is the biggest we’ve seen. Midfielders and forwards are of course much more likely to score and assist and it appears to be those factors that see their Index scores rocket.
The bottom scorer in our table – Rafael Van der Vaart still picked up 24 points (this is 10 more than your average Kompany score) while the top earner over the first ten Gameweeks – Didier Drogba – romped home with an index mark of 68 points – a truly explosive return.
Finding the average EA SPORTS PPI score from the top midfielders and forwards (using the sample of all 60 from the first ten weeks) we can see evidence of a clear runaway winner – the Index figure comes in at a strong 39.6.
Looking back then, while the defenders made the goalkeepers look somewhat irrelevant, by and large the midfielders and strikers leave them both behind. The average score of 39.6 is higher than all but one of the very best defenders in the first 10 Gameweeks.
Given that there is an average of 2.8 goals scored in every Premier League game, that leaves the potential for a fair number of assists and goals to boost the attacking players’ Index scores each week. A clean sheet proved much harder to come by last season and, on the evidence of the data available, seems far less likely to earn a player the boost required to push them into the top three EA SPORTS PPI position in a given match ahead of a goalscorer. Winning, scoring and assisting all look like being the key indices.
All roads, perhaps unsurprisingly, lead to goals then. If a player scores a goal (or even just contributes to it) then their Index score seems likely to beat off other “top performers” across the less significant performance statistics.
We have to hold our hands up and be honest here – our data is limited – we’re working with a large number of blind spots and these theories are ultimately assumptions based on what’s available. The evidence found however, seems to defy some of the assumptions made since the rule change was announced. Defenders and industrious midfielders could earn extra recognition but ultimately, it looks as the attacking players, particularly those in sides that regularly earn three points, will dominate the Bonus awards.
About The Author
“Under my tutelage you will grow from boys into men. From men into gladiators. And from Gladiators into Swansons.”
Andy @ffscout_andy
Commenting is now closed for this post.
Recent Comments
-
Is there a good Captain Choice for Group C? Both matches look low scoring to me? » -
3 or 4 is borderline, though 4 is usually a keeper. Depends whether you've got an Olsson or a Benzema waiting on the… » -
I'm not sure about the last one. Neither France or Zlatan to me, maybe Ukraine. » -
You sub out 3's without thinking, Above that it depends upon the circumstances » -
Haven't played UCL so what is a relatively good score for a player? Say they scored 4 points would you look to sub… »
-
Am I alone in thinking that they priced the players pretty well in the Euro FF, and so it dosent actually matter who you… »
-
One thing a lot of people seem to be overlooking in their teams... a lot are missing a solid captain choice from group c… »
-
Yup, but I see no reason why all the lovely folk cant join. Excluding Sporting AB obviously, I just want the fun of… »
-
Just done a bit of research and it does seem that way. Although with Schweinsteiger back from injury and Kroos playing… » -
I watched Burnt By The Sun. Russian Film about living in Stalinist Russia. Pretty good »
“I would like to say, on behalf of Manchester United, congratulations to our neighbours. It is the hardest league in the world and anyone who wins it deserves it.”
Sir Alex Ferguson congratulates City on their dramatic title win
-
Mark
@FFScout_Mark
-
Sir Paulos
@ffscout_paulos
-
greek fan
@FFScout_Greekf
-
Andy
@ffscout_andy
-
G-G-Granville
@FFScout_Granny
-
Akers
@FFScout_Akers
-
Big Dunc
@FFScout_Dunc
August 6 at 12:34 pm
Alex says:
RMT
Given (Moreira)
Rafael, Luiz, Kompany (Simpson, Samba)
Taarabt, Silva, Moses, VDV (Sinclair)
Suarez, Zamora, Hernandez.
August 6 at 12:36 pm
bobbydinho says:
Anyone have an idea why Aqualani is not listed under Liverpool?
August 6 at 12:42 pm
alwayslookonalbrightonsideoflife says:
cos he won’t be there come the start of the season.
August 6 at 12:43 pm
Champ says:
Presumably all the doubt surrounding his future.
August 6 at 12:42 pm
Champ says:
Swansea’s new signing Lita, is he in direct competition with graham for the striker role or can he play other positions?
Routledge, is he strictly a wide player or could he play in dobbie’s position off the striker?
August 6 at 1:03 pm
Alex says:
I’m a Swans fan, we tend to only play with one striker so Lita is, as you say, in direct competition with Graham (as far as I know).
Routledge will more than likely play out wide and provide competition for Dyer and Sinclair, and whilst we have Ryan Harley who can deputise for Dobbie’s position just off the striker, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Routledge play there on the odd occasion.
August 6 at 1:07 pm
Champ says:
Thanks Alex. I’m liking the look of dobbie at 5.0 for the odd home game. Bit worried about competition though?
August 6 at 2:06 pm
Alex says:
He’ll more than likely start our home games, but if we look to tighten it up away from home he’d probably be benched for a deeper-playing midfielder like Agustien.
August 6 at 12:43 pm
alwayslookonalbrightonsideoflife says:
still a bit unsure about Toure.
Worth switching him for Downing or Silva or Modric?
Already have Malouda, Sess, Moses, Dobbie
August 6 at 12:43 pm
Demi says:
Loads of pre-season games today. Looking forward to it. Hopefully no injuries to any of my current FPL squad
August 6 at 12:48 pm
eoinwalsh says:
Any opinions on the below? RMT
Foster / Cerny
Kompany / Enrique / Cole / Briggs / Salgado
Moses / Toure / Sessegnon / Modric / Downing
Aguero / Rodellega / Drogba
August 6 at 1:05 pm
Alex says:
Cerny? Paddy Kenny is the QPR no. 1. Good side nonetheless.
August 6 at 1:13 pm
eoinwalsh says:
can i get a keeper for 4 that will rotate with Foster?
or any 2 for 9?
August 6 at 1:21 pm
scored says:
Good article. I agree that goalscorers and assisters will get more bps… if that wasn’t the case it would be a disaster because nobody would stop complaining!
BUT… People should remember this changes very little… it was pretty much the same last season. Most BPs went to, and will go to, the scorers and assisters. There were some exceptions especially in low scoring games, and still will be.
So… DON’T go and pick 5 cheap defenders and 3 strong attackers based on this ‘news’… bps are already factored into the prices as it is.
August 6 at 1:28 pm
scored says:
Oh and weirdly it would seem defenders from teams who can’t score goals will get more BPs too, since they’re more likely to be drawing 0-0 than winning 4-0… so in a weird way swansea’s defenders might get more bonus points than chelsea’s… Obviously they’ll get fewer clean sheets though which are the real source of points!
August 6 at 1:44 pm
Jonah - Jack Bauer is the ultimate FPL master! says:
I think the clearest indication from this news is that players who in the past have scored goals with getting bonus points will see their points tallys boosted considerably.
August 6 at 2:57 pm
dunkle says:
Would anyone mind helping with a suggestion of weak points and improvements on my team (I had a year out from FPL last season so feel a tad behind)
Anyway as it stands I have
De Gea / Foster
Samba / Johnson / Hughes / Bardsley / Distin
Henderson / Jarvis / N’Zogbia / Gamst Pederson / Modric
Carroll / Odemwingie / Drogba
Anyone make suggestion of who I should replace with who etc
Thanks
August 6 at 4:02 pm
Bombay Blues says:
Quite a different team, to many put out here.
I’d say:
* You’ve a got a little too much invested in your GKs. I’d downgrade De Gea to Given, and use the extra 1.5 elsewhere – perhaps in defence, to upgrade a Bardsley or Samba to Kompany.
* Apart from Kompany, I think you’d be safe going for either of Cole/Ivanovic or Baines in defence. Look at NUFC’s Simpson – priced at 4.0
* Personally, for a Wolves MF, I prefer O’Hara over Jarvis, but that’s just me.
* Not too sure about your midfield either. I don’t see Henderson starting too many for LFC. Pedersen or Modric aren’t stand-out picks either. For those units, I’d look at Taarabt, Sessegnon, Sinclair, Moses, N’Zogbia. If you can fit it a pricey MF in your side – Malouda/Silva.
* Odemwingie hasn’t got top fixtures to start with. You might be safe with Drogba (he’s rumoured to start against Stoke), but he’ll eventually share playing-time with Nando.
August 6 at 5:33 pm
hungry4nuns says:
In other words don’t think for yourself, stick to the team everyone else has.
Imo modric and pedersen are great differentials, reckon the new bonus point system will bemefit them once they get the odd goal or assist to match their performances. Wont be explosive enough to become bandwagons but consistent all the same
August 6 at 3:28 pm
freshy says:
Sturridge
August 6 at 5:12 pm
Namtab Notlob says:
Testing replies on this post.
August 6 at 5:14 pm
CFCTom says:
Most awkward Harry Redknapp interview ever just on, lol.
August 6 at 5:15 pm
Namtab Notlob says:
What were they asking him?
August 6 at 5:23 pm
CFCTom says:
A woman asking if can they read anything into Modric not starting, he said no, no, Modric of course will be starting against Everton. Then she asked about the transfer market and if he is prepared to make signings right at the end of the window or if he wants things cleared up before the first game, and ‘Arry put on a very fake and long laugh and said I thought the transfer window had closed months ago, then there was an awkward silence and he walked away, you got the feeling he was annoyed that he couldnt sign anyone. He’s alays doing media work trying to get the public to like him, he really wants that England job.
August 6 at 5:26 pm
General says:
He’ll get the England job, though I’d be quite happy with Holloway.
August 6 at 5:19 pm
QOTSA says:
Just use here you bunch of idiots.
August 6 at 5:23 pm
King Eric says:
Hit with the ladies, I’ll bet
August 6 at 6:04 pm
RoboCoop says:
Hi guys, any opinions on improvements are much appreciated
Given (al habsi)
Walker kompany Gibbs (Simpson, Salgado)
Kuyt, silva, wilshere, bale (Moses)
Holt, RVP, Dzeko
August 7 at 10:41 am
Mesut Ozil says:
My first rate my team of the year
Given (Foster)
Kompany Hughes Bramble
Lampard(VC) Silva(C) Moses Duff
Holt VanPersie Suarez
1.Sinclair, 2.Elokobi, 3.Taylor(Swansea)
Any comments/suggestions?
August 7 at 8:16 pm
Mikalourus says:
lol 24% of teams have odemwingie who faces man u & chelsea in their 1st 2 game weeks
August 8 at 9:01 am
roooooooooneyyyy says:
what do u guys thinks?
given/al habsi
a.cole lescott j.enrique (bardsley simpson)
nzog sinclair silva moses (?)
rooney bent rodallega
6 mil for a midfielder.. any suggestions about the team?
August 8 at 9:03 am
Tow Law Juniors says:
Is rodallega fit?