Feature – Risk vs Reward
Filed under: Feature - Posted by: Chris Glover
Not all Fantasy points are created equal. While we obviously want to maximise the total returns gained over the course of the season, on an individual level we also need to account for the cost of those points and the certainty with which they can be projected.
Cost is fairly easy to measure by looking at points divided by millions of pounds spent. Risk, however, is more tricky but will be defined here as an inconsistent player. For example, consider the two players below:
| Gameweek 1 | Gameweek 2 | Gameweek 3 | Gameweek 4 | Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5.25 |
| Player B | 10 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5.25 |
Both players give you the same total points but Player B’s erratic production is much harder to anticipate and can have a negative impact for a variety of reasons:
Transfer targets become difficult to predict, as you don’t know if Player B is a legitimate Fantasy option or merely someone who had a couple of standout games. It’s much more likely that Player A will be able to maintain his production going forward.
Squad players become trickier to rotate in your first XI, as you’re unable to predict with any certainty just what they might contribute that Gameweek. If you play a player week in, week out, this isn’t an issue, but if you are looking to rotate a player, consistency can be a valuable asset.
Inconsistent players are far more difficult to manage when it comes to the captain’s armband, someone like Player B could explode or flop in any given Gameweek. Captain him every week and this is not a concern but if, like most Fantasy managers, you change your captain on a regular basis, this unpredictability just increases the risk involved.
This data can only be used alongside other factors as it is (a) retrospective rather than predictive and (b) it isn’t necessarily a good idea to rid yourself of all risk in your side as this will also limit potential.
That said, we can attempt to identify comparable players who might bring equally good production potential for less risk, and thus represent a better use of your team’s valuable funds.
Before we start, a note about the charts included in this article. They plot a players average (mean) Gameweek score, against the standard deviation of those scores – eg: the level of rise and fall week by week, as a representation of the “risk” involved with a player. The further a player appears to the right of the X axis (bottom horizontal axis) of the chart, the greater the deviation or risk involved. The further the player appears up the Y axis (left vertical axis) – the greater their average Gameweek score. Ultimately, we’re looking for players with strong Gameweek scores, with as low a risk factor as possible – these players give strong returns but, crucially, are also consistent.
Let’s begin by looking at the forwards…
We can immediately see that in general, higher reward is accompanied by higher risk. This stands to reason – the top players have the ability to score double digit points in any given Gameweek, and thus have further to fall when things don’t go their way. However, there are a couple of match-ups where the ‘risk’ involved could be deciding factor:
Sergio Aguero vs Wayne Rooney – The Manchester rivals have been tough to distinguish this year. Both have averaged around six points per game, though Rooney has edged ahead in the past fortnight in terms of points per week thanks to a couple of big performances.
The popular perception is that Rooney brings a level of consistency matched by few but, in fact, his points total has been boosted by a handful of huge performances, including back-to-back hat tricks in Gameweeks three and four. That in itself isn’t a big problem but the fact that these displays have come against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal made it likelier that Rooney wasn’t given the captain’s armband by his owners on those occasions.
Starting with Blackburn at home this weekend, Man City have the slightly more favourable fixtures in the short-term, and with Aguero consistently chipping in with good returns, he might just be the wiser choice right now.
Emmanuel Adebayor and Demba Ba vs. Elite forwards – there is a strong argument based on the above data, to plug both Adebayor and Ba into your lineup, using the funds saved to invest in midfield (where cheaper, consistent talent has been very hard to find). Both mid-price strikers have managed to deliver great consistency to match their high returns, as opposed to other flash-in-the-pans assets whose production has been erratic at best (we’re looking at you, Yakubu). Both Tottenham and Newcastle have a strong set of fixtures on the horizon, so while it isn’t controversial to suggest this pair is worth owning, there’s an argument to suggest that they can be owned instead of Rooney and Aguero, rather than alongside them.
Daniel Sturridge vs Edin Dzeko – Sturridge started the season on the sidelines and a lack of stand-out individual performances have really kept him out of the Fantasy headlines. His ownership has crept up into double digits but that level is still below what one would expect for a player with Sturridge’s risk/reward profile. He has found the net in eight different games, not far behind Rooney, Aguero and Ba (10) but a lack of substantial returns has suppressed his overall points total, and thus the interest of Fantasy managers. It goes without saying that Chelsea, and hence Sturridge, lack the upside of the two Manchester teams but if you’re looking to save some cash up top, or to differentiate from the widely-held Ba, Sturridge brings consistent returns, not often found for a player in his price range.
Steven Fletcher vs All other sub-7.0m forwards– the Wolves front man gained some attention during his solid run of form a few weeks back, but the above chart shows he may still be a touch undervalued. Yakubu and Zamora have both been more fancied Fantasy assets at some point this year but they carry much more risk than Fletcher, who has simply shown up and delivered close to five points per game at an almost unmatched level. Zamora may have a slightly higher upside but, if you’re a position to be rotating your third forward, Fletcher’s consistency makes him a very desirable option.
Steve Morison vs Danny Graham and Grant Holt – Morison has only delivered points on a league average basis, so this isn’t going to be the most exciting decision you make for your team. However, the attributes for a good third forward (who will often find himself benched) must include a level of consistency and Morison enjoys an advantage in that area, ahead of the group of comparable four-point-players. He’s found himself benched in the last two weeks and those concerns must obviously be addressed first, but if you believe he can get back into the Norwich lineup, he remains one of the best budget forwards to own.
You can immediately see the correlation is stronger among midfielders with fewer outliers to highlight. There are however, a couple of familiar names that are worth highlighting:
David Silva vs. Everyone else – Okay, admittedly, highlighting the second-top scoring midfielder around, owned by 44% of FPL managers isn’t going to win any awards for investigative journalism. However, idle wildcards are the devil’s tools and with Gareth Bale and Clint Dempsey continuing to impress, there may be many managers tempted to turn their collective backs on the Spanish maestro.
While looking for the next big thing is obviously a sound idea, the above data merely lends further weight to the fact that Silva is simply too good to drop. Bale has the edge on him in terms of pure point production per game but he has been significantly more unpredictable, raising the question as to whether Bale’s form will continue for the remainder of the season.
Silva, on the other hand, has failed to score or assist a goal in back-to-back starts just twice all season. When spending 10.0 plus, the security of knowing what you’re getting for your money is a huge benefit, especially if that stability is not accompanied by a downgrade in overall production. Assuming most Fantasy managers reading this already own Silva, this may be one area where apathy wins out . Doing nothing might just be the way to go with Silva – that transfer itch might be better scratched elsewhere.
Theo Walcott vs Mid range midfielders – Consistency isn’t the first word you associate with the frustrating Walcott but, in Fantasy terms at least, he has been exactly that this season. The winger chipped in with nine games of between five and nine points compared to fourteen disappointing outings, which doesn’t sound great in a vacuum but actually compares favourably to several more fancied options: Stephane Sessegnon (9 vs 14), Nani (8 vs 14) and Dempsey (8 vs 13). The high scores have been limited, which has really kept Walcott out of Fantasy managers’ minds and thus he represents a good buying opportunity given his high floor and mid-range ceiling. Having been dropped for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain the FA Cup trip to Sunderland last weekend, however, Walcott’s starts will need to be monitored, with a first-team starting place perhaps under question for the first time this season.
Consistency of defensive points is always going to be tied more to a player’s team than his own ability, so the analysis here is less telling, but a couple of names still pop up which deserve a quick mention:
Kyle Walker vs Benoit Assou-Ekotto – With a couple of big performances over the past six weeks, Assou-Ekotto has leapt to the top of the defensive points charts, though the above would suggest that team-mate Walker represents better value. Aside from the fact he is slightly cheaper and owned by less than half as many Fantasy managers, Walker has also delivered slightly better per-game returns on a much more consistent basis. Throw in Walker’s comparable, or marginally better, performance stats (including shots on goal and key passes) and you have a clear cut differential candidate who should remain on the radar.
Vincent Kompany vs Thomas Vermaelen – Vermaelen has rarely been a hot Fantasy property this term, but his positioning in our chart illustrates a worthy point of note. Defensive goalscorers obviously carry significant potential but the unpredictability of those returns can often limit a player’s value. If the goals have come in games where logic suggests the player should have been benched in our Fantasy lineups, they may have been wasted, but would have still boosted a player in the overall scoring charts.
Vermaelen has earned a large portion of his points from offensive production so, unless you are willing to play him every week, he looks way too unpredictable to justify his decent returns when compared with someone like Kompany, whose production has been much flatter, with City’s defensive returns his bread and butter.
About The Author
“Creator of the plfantasy blog, providing a stats focused approach to fantasy football. Exiled to Canada but still prefer my sports played on grass rather than ice.”
Chris Glover @plfantasy
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February 24 at 8:16 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) says:
Udit – you still here?
You know there was talk the other day about setting up a Fantasy F1 league? Well I had an email yesterday from the website we did the AFCON league on and they had a link to what looks quite a promising F1 comp. Not mega prizes but free and it looks as though it involves some planning and participation without being overly taxing. What do you reckon?
Link is http://fantasy.etana.co.za/f1f.....ashboard.j
February 24 at 8:39 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
I will play in this competition.
February 24 at 8:40 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) says:
What do you reckon, Ankit? Doesnt look too bad does it?
February 24 at 8:43 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
It’s Good.
I am creating a league.
February 24 at 8:44 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) says:
Fab! Let me know when you’ve done it and I’ll join
February 24 at 8:56 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
League Code-
16873178398881
February 24 at 8:58 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) says:
Cheers Ankit, I’ll sign up now
February 24 at 9:02 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Cheers Catmac.
February 24 at 9:06 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
No need to sign up.
Just enter your e-mail id & password with which you signed up for ACON Fantasy.
February 24 at 9:11 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) says:
Yeah, I found that out after I’d entered all the details to register
February 24 at 9:09 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) says:
Done. It took ages as I was already registered with them.
February 24 at 8:45 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Suggest A good Name for the league.
February 24 at 8:49 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) says:
I am sooo unoriginal with names
Uhm, FFSF1 Racers?
Scout Racing?
No-one else here wanting to join think of a good name?
February 24 at 8:51 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
I like ‘FFS F1 Racers/Team’
February 24 at 8:57 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) says:
Go for that then. Pretty simple and self-explanatory to us on here.
February 24 at 8:50 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Scalextric have one too. But Scalextric has the exciting addition of overtaking.
February 24 at 8:56 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) says:
We wanted something that was a bit testing without taking up too much of people’s time. Do you have a link for it out of curiousity though, I cant find it on their main website?
February 24 at 9:03 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
February 24 at 9:12 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) says:
Ok, I fell for that
February 24 at 9:21 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Catmac, Hi, just saw your post, Awesome! I’ll join HappyAnkit’s leauge right away, Great work there Detective Cat
You’re the number 1 cat around these parts.
February 24 at 9:23 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) says:
Cheers Udit, it looks a decent competition. As for the last bit, I’m not so sure. Fuzzy’s hat might disagree
February 24 at 9:37 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
nah, you pip/peep him meowt
February 24 at 9:23 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
+10000
February 24 at 9:27 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) says:
We’ll have to spread the word at different times of the day to get as many participants as possible.
February 24 at 9:28 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Sure.
February 24 at 9:45 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) [F1 fans joins our league, ask Udit, Ankit or me for details] says:
Testing name change
February 24 at 9:49 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Name Modified.
February 24 at 9:50 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Grammatical Error- Join in place of Joins.
February 24 at 9:52 am
CatMac - No.1 Cat of Central Sports Klub of Army (Moscow) - F1 fans join our league, ask Udit, Ankit or me for details says:
Done. Took the brackets away as well as it didnt look as clear.
February 24 at 9:59 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Its better now.
February 24 at 8:19 am
Cock Soccer says:
Grrrreat article.
However, Glen Johnson appears to be missing. He averages more points per GW than Kompany & has lower standard deviation. Clearly a diamond missing.
February 24 at 8:28 am
Help, I've played my wildcard and I'm still pants! says:
Agreed.
He’s the one Liverpool transfer I’m looking to have done by the time their DGW is announced
February 24 at 8:40 am
Cock Soccer says:
Same here. He’s been under the radar, mainly because of missing 8 first GWs thus being low in the overall scores. I hadn’t realized his potential myself, thanks goes to Demi.
A welcomed differential to minileagues.
February 24 at 8:19 am
James says:
So, Valencia back in a week. SAF always lies about injury lengths! Pity I sold Valencia for McClean (for a hit), though I guess now I can sell Sess for Valencia when he is back vs West Brom.
February 24 at 8:24 am
Jack(off)Attack - Beşiktaş, Group E Champions. says:
A little bored sooo…..Who’s your personally preferred top 5 in each position?
Mine;
GK
1. Krul
2. Mignolet
3. Hart
4. Reina
5. Vorm
Defence
1. Kompany
2. BAE
3. GJ
4. Evans
5. Skrtel
Midfield
1. Bale
2. Valencia
3. Sessegnon
4. Silva
5. Dempsey
Forward
1. Ba
2. RVP
3. Aguero/Rooney
4. Rooney/Aguero
5. Adebayor/Yakubu
This is ignoring current fixtures mind you.
February 24 at 8:34 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Krul
R Taylor err.. GJ
Silva & Bale
RVP
February 24 at 8:42 am
asyrafdanial says:
personally :-
Vorm
BAE
Bale
RVP
February 24 at 8:29 am
elninorules: CL Group Reviews (ColeHole) and ECL Group Reviews (Impressive Larnaca) are out! says:
Reminder to the CL & ECL managers:
In light of everyone’s hard work on their FFS gravs, group leaders will be now able to boast their gravs/logo besides the group, to show their dominance in the group standings.
2 options:
1) Upload on http://imgur.com/ and pass me the “direct link” (one with .jpg)
2) Give me the URL of the grav
PS: If we don’t have your grav when you’re a leader, we’ll put up the team logo.
PPS: Please spread the word if possible, to your group-mates et al.
February 24 at 8:30 am
elninorules: CL Group Reviews (ColeHole) and ECL Group Reviews (Impressive Larnaca) are out! says:
For all those who’ve done this already, please ignore.
February 24 at 8:40 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Who is my group Leader?
February 24 at 8:46 am
Sleep Talk says:
Guess he means group leader as in: The person on top of the group after matches has been played. Therefore, no group leaders at the moment.
February 24 at 8:50 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Got it.
February 24 at 9:04 am
Fratgirl - Marseille says:
Cba
February 24 at 9:19 am
FrogDog says:
ENR – has anyone done a preview of our group? I like all this talk of ‘half a team of differentials’ and ‘big shock’ and ‘underdog’.
February 24 at 9:22 am
elninorules: CL Group Reviews (ColeHole) and ECL Group Reviews (Impressive Larnaca) are out! says:
Halo Leverkusen,
Matchday 1 preview – NO
Group review – YES. For all groups, ColeHole has done them.
Write-ups on my link.
February 24 at 9:33 am
FrogDog says:
Sorry, meant Matchday Preview. Your link is fantastic btw – a lot of good work there. Now lets see if the same can be said for your team selection
I’m thinking of captaining Andy Cole. Chelsea cleany and 2 assists vs Bolton. You read it here. Baha…
February 24 at 9:39 am
FrogDog says:
And of course i meant Ashley. Doh x-( Thank goodness Super Rugby started this morning so I can get involved in something I actually know something about
February 24 at 9:44 am
elninorules: CL Group Reviews (ColeHole) and ECL Group Reviews (Impressive Larnaca) are out! says:
Haha btw fancy writing our Matchday Preview?
February 24 at 9:44 am
ChristIna says:
Nothing more frustrating then S15 fantasy rugby. I tried it once, and hated it. Rules still the same?
February 24 at 9:43 am
elninorules: CL Group Reviews (ColeHole) and ECL Group Reviews (Impressive Larnaca) are out! says:
NoOooooOOOooo
He’s my fave player. That would be harsh
February 24 at 9:51 am
FrogDog says:
Ok, why not…
Ya, the S15 fantasy rugby isn’t great, but it’s improving. Rules are pretty much the same but player values are getting better. Rugby is my first love, I only really got into this as a hangover after the world cup, but i’ve become a bit addicted. I’m just regretting deviating from the planning and losing 60k+ places in the last 2 GWs
February 24 at 9:46 am
heco87 - UCL Dortmund says:
Ah Marseille … how I look forward to our game.
February 24 at 9:49 am
Fratboy- Marseille says:
yeah that’ll be a good one! You should be worried, I’ll have 2 free transfers
February 24 at 8:36 am
nomar says:
Need to get Aguero in. Would love Ba and Raylor too but can’t afford that.
Should I go Dzeko to Aguero and Gerbil to Holt instead, for 4 pointer?
February 24 at 8:37 am
aatish jain says:
Should I play R.Taylor?
February 24 at 8:38 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Why would you bench him?
February 24 at 8:39 am
Fuzzy Czarbles - Manager, Shakhtar Donetsk says:
no. give him to me.
February 24 at 8:41 am
JohnD - Manager ФК Динамо Київ Participants in the "Death Match" of 1942 says:
February 24 at 8:45 am
aatish jain says:
Who’s your captain?
February 24 at 8:49 am
JohnD - Manager ФК Динамо Київ Participants in the "Death Match" of 1942 says:
Currently aguero but tempted by Ba and bale
February 24 at 8:51 am
aatish jain says:
Ya,me too.
I’m confused between Aguero and Ba.
Though currentle is Aguero.
February 24 at 8:43 am
aatish jain says:
You can have him for 7m !
February 24 at 8:40 am
nomar says:
Yes. You should play the spawny git every GW.
February 24 at 8:40 am
Jack(off)Attack - Beşiktaş, Group E Champions. says:
Impressive ranking man
I’d definitely play R.Taylor over BAE
February 24 at 8:44 am
aatish jain says:
Thank you
February 24 at 8:42 am
Biggy Shackleton says:
That is about as good an article as i’ve seen written here over the years. Definitely going to pocket that one and whip it out again at the start of next season.
February 24 at 8:47 am
roscola says:
+1
February 24 at 8:43 am
I was the only one in my ML to captain Dempsey, also had Sorensen as keeper. says:
So I assume you know what post I’m talking to.
You just don’t like the answers. This answer that you gave now, just says it all really.
Grow up man/teen/woman/trans.
February 24 at 8:45 am
Jack(off)Attack - Beşiktaş, Group E Champions. says:
huh?
February 24 at 8:47 am
ChristIna says:
Thanks Jackers.
February 24 at 8:45 am
ChristIna says:
I’m lost Kimo Sabi. And I don’t have the time to go and look for your post.
What you want?
February 24 at 8:50 am
I was the only one in my ML to captain Dempsey, also had Sorensen as keeper. says:
This is propably asked before but
a) do you get a hard on when men watch your wife in internet forum?
b) does your wife get some sort of pleasure when men watch her in internet forum?
c) does she even know?
d) does she even exist?
e) you think we should envy you?
f) you think you have selected best fotos to show the world how much you love her?
g) it ain’t too big, but at least it works, ha?
I just hope it makes you think a little, nothing more, especially the F-part.
February 24 at 8:55 am
JohnD - Manager ФК Динамо Київ Participants in the "Death Match" of 1942 says:
Ok off to get a maccie D’s for lunch… Look forward to reading the response when I get back
February 24 at 9:01 am
ChristIna says:
a) Not at all, I leave that for you
b)I don’t have a wife
c)How could she? She does not exist
d)Refer c
e)Why should you? I don’t even have a wife
f)Love who? My imaginary wife?
g)Last time I looked it was big and it worked fine.
Your post made me think. Next time I will think twice before responding to your posts.
February 24 at 9:08 am
Fuzzy Czarbles - Manager, Shakhtar Donetsk says:
in regards to g)
i hope its benign then mate! You may want to get that thing lanced.
February 24 at 9:11 am
Bubbles says:
Some people are just soooo jealous they aren’t in the JPT final.
February 24 at 9:14 am
ChristIna says:
Tell them Bubs
February 24 at 9:16 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
+1.
February 24 at 9:12 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Does that mean young Inalize and Chrisitan are illegitimate?
but I was the only person who (C) dempsey why do you want to know about g).?
February 24 at 8:51 am
Bubbles says:
I think I remember where it was posted, gimme a minute.
February 24 at 8:53 am
Jack(off)Attack - Beşiktaş, Group E Champions. says:
Found it Bubbles
http://www.fantasyfootballscou.....nt-2762832
February 24 at 8:55 am
The Light Knight Upon His Dark Horse, Maccabi Tel-Aviv says:
i object to your full title
February 24 at 8:59 am
Jack(off)Attack - Beşiktaş, Group E Champions. says:
Well in that case, you’re wrong, sorry
Getting nervous? 4 points up and the GW hasn’t even started
February 24 at 9:01 am
The Light Knight Upon His Dark Horse, Maccabi Tel-Aviv says:
not at all. i have every confidence that gerrard (c) will come off
February 24 at 9:07 am
Jack(off)Attack - Beşiktaş, Group E Champions. says:
Looks like it will be;
Cech (BOL) vs Krul (WOL)
Taiwo (FUL) vs Richards (BLA)
Simpon (WOL) vs Evans (nor)
VDV vs Bale (ars)
McClean (wba) vs Sess (wba)
Ox (TOT) vs Silva (BLA)
Sturridge (BOL) vs Ba (WOL)
Dzeko vs Aguero (BLA)
Although I’m unsure how you will line up
February 24 at 9:12 am
The Light Knight Upon His Dark Horse, Maccabi Tel-Aviv says:
5 at the back was my thinking yesterday
February 24 at 9:14 am
Jack(off)Attack - Beşiktaş, Group E Champions. says:
I see two pointers all round either way
February 24 at 9:17 am
The Light Knight Upon His Dark Horse, Maccabi Tel-Aviv says:
perhaps, but my team will be inspired to victory by their epic theme
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMsExmLc4_w
February 24 at 8:56 am
Bubbles says:
Ah, he’s already posted it. Gave me a right old laugh yesterday.
February 24 at 8:45 am
I was the only one in my ML to captain Dempsey, also had Sorensen as keeper. says:
and it was a reply fail to dear Christina of course.
February 24 at 8:48 am
JohnD - Manager ФК Динамо Київ Participants in the "Death Match" of 1942 says:
Why has rudi pissed you off? Link your previous post btw
February 24 at 8:48 am
ChristIna says:
February 24 at 8:47 am
JohnD - Manager ФК Динамо Київ Participants in the "Death Match" of 1942 says:
Reply fail?
February 24 at 8:49 am
ChristIna says:
Any psychiatrists in the house? Fuzzy?
February 24 at 9:03 am
Fuzzy Czarbles - Manager, Shakhtar Donetsk says:
i dont understand reposting the same questions. they were asked with no intention of getting a reply to the questions themselves, just a response in general. To post the same thing the next day seems lazy and uninspired. If one is too lazy to have fresh material for a confrontation on the board, then they should inherently be lazy enough to just drop it all together. Cmon mate. I own Sorensen too. Life isnt fair. Pick your battles. You know, the worthwhile ones!!!
February 24 at 9:05 am
The Light Knight Upon His Dark Horse, Maccabi Tel-Aviv says:
is bosingwa banned for 3 matches?
February 24 at 9:09 am
Fuzzy Czarbles - Manager, Shakhtar Donetsk says:
when did i become the resident bosingwa expert?
February 24 at 8:48 am
aatish jain says:
What are Aguero’s chances of starting the game against Blackburn ?
February 24 at 8:54 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Odds on. He is first choice.
February 24 at 8:48 am
Mac says:
No idea if this has been reported during the deadzone but:
Richards
Regarding the knock to his knee he picked up during the match he added: “It’s all right. I had an operation on it about two years ago and I tweaked the ligament again, but I should be all right.”
February 24 at 8:50 am
ChristIna says:
Oh feck.
February 24 at 8:53 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Where’s this from Mac?
I’m always slightly concerned about tweaked ligaments and other white tissue injuries. Never quite as straightforward as you’d like.
February 24 at 8:55 am
Mac says:
At the bottom
http://www.guardian.co.uk/foot.....sfeed=true
February 24 at 8:59 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Thanks Mac, I’ve not been trawling through the footie pages much of late.
February 24 at 9:05 am
Fuzzy Czarbles - Manager, Shakhtar Donetsk says:
just two start Micah, can you friggin’ do that for me please? Then you can be on your merry way.
February 24 at 8:51 am
Thesteady-not the wobbly.. says:
Who do you think will start against Norwich of Welbeck and Hernandez?
February 24 at 8:54 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
You asked it yesterday also.
February 24 at 8:59 am
Thesteady-not the wobbly.. says:
Yes, but know we now that Welbeck came on in 70th minute in the EL
February 24 at 9:03 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Can’t understand what you are saying.
February 24 at 9:10 am
Stinkfly says:
Welbeck.
February 24 at 8:52 am
CarelessGenius says:
Sess or McClean to start this week?
February 24 at 9:01 am
Thesteady-not the wobbly.. says:
IMO both will start.
February 24 at 8:53 am
Daniel - Andre go home!!! says:
Chris you are marvelous, marvelous mate. Your way of thinking about FF is revolutionary IMO. Thanks for the article. Cheers,
February 24 at 9:01 am
hvsauce says:
So keeping Silva then??
February 24 at 8:53 am
aatish jain says:
Rooney
February 24 at 8:56 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Yes it looks very like him, except it’s smiling.
February 24 at 8:57 am
The Light Knight Upon His Dark Horse, Maccabi Tel-Aviv says:
lol
February 24 at 8:58 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
LOL
February 24 at 9:00 am
aatish jain says:
Should i bench Dempsey this week ?
February 24 at 9:08 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
I don’t think so.
February 24 at 9:16 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
I’m playing and praying.
February 24 at 9:17 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Nope
February 24 at 9:04 am
ManofKent says:
Superb article
February 24 at 9:07 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Morning MoK, how are you?
Seeing you here has reminded me to check the Metro mini-leagues. How is your team doing?
February 24 at 9:25 am
ManofKent says:
Morning – gave up with Metro, haven’t looked for months – just sticking to FPL & Texaco.
February 24 at 9:05 am
Woy of the Wovers says:
A very interesting article. If we can draw any more parallels between Fantasy Football and the Capital Asset Pricing Model then we will be well on the way to developing our own efficient fantasy team. That said, I still need to convince myself that this is a valid basis for looking at fantasy assets. Volatility of returns can sometimes be of way of making points if you can rotate the players “at the right time”.
i.e.
Player 1 scores 6 – 6 – 6 – 6 – 6 – 6 (Average 6/Risk 0)
or
Player 2 scores 8 – 8 – 8 – 2 – 2 – 2 (Average 5/Risk 3)
Player 3 scores 2 – 2 – 2 – 8 – 8 – 8 (Average 5/Risk 3)
Even paying a 4pt penalty for the transfer from Player 2 to 3 in GW4 still gives an extra 8 points for a team which has a higher risk.
Still, one to think about.
Nice to hear that Valencia will be back soon. I was hoping he might become a nice differential so things are moving in the right direction
February 24 at 9:13 am
Bubbles says:
…I just tend to pick the players I think will score the most points at certain times. Hasn’t really worked out too well this season though.
February 24 at 9:55 am
Woy of the Wovers says:
I think a lot of people balance their team between long term and short term purchases. For long term assets you may tend to mind less about volatility of returns (if we ignore subs or captaincy choices).
For short term purchases, we might look for risk since we are only interested in holding players for a few games.
February 24 at 9:16 am
mrben says:
Valencia back sharpish is good news, but would we expect another price drop in the meantime? Would think it likely
February 24 at 9:20 am
Woy of the Wovers says:
Think price drops now a fairly harmless. For me, I’m quite happy with a price drop because it means that another 1% of fantasy teams have sold him
February 24 at 9:15 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Is this horrible grav’s week? First ENR now Christina? I Blame you I Captained Dems… Whatever, he had a perfectly nice(Cough) Gravatar before you opened your big mouth.
February 24 at 9:19 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Include your Grav also.
February 24 at 9:23 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
You’ll be lynched in England if you say that
February 24 at 9:25 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
I am not going there.
February 24 at 9:26 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Maybe oneday.
February 24 at 9:19 am
ChristIna says:
What can I say, I can’t afford a sicko getting a hard on while looking at the gravatar of my imaginary wife.
February 24 at 9:21 am
Bubbles says:
That’s a really lovely photo. The pink hat really shows off the massive hole in your head.
February 24 at 9:25 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
-1 , Altho I do like the pink hat.
February 24 at 9:23 am
DementedFlamingo says:
You making new friends again Christina
I wondered when you would post a portrat grav of the missus… I must says she’s better looking from further away 
February 24 at 9:28 am
ChristIna says:
Howzit DF. I trust you are well.
Yeah, there has been complaints iro my gravatar(s) so I thought it best to give the missus involved. She ain’t that bad really. I mean, would you complain about that tongue?
February 24 at 9:34 am
DementedFlamingo says:
Errrr
February 24 at 9:38 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Ha My thoughts exactly.
February 24 at 9:22 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Look at the top of page[where comment starts] Udiot.
February 24 at 9:27 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
The Moral of the story is never gamble with your Grav.
February 24 at 9:29 am
ChristIna says:
Says the person with the grav of two men kissing.
February 24 at 9:35 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Haha, Errol was starting to tire, what with his duties on my Grav and the channel 4 afternoon films.
February 24 at 9:18 am
default says:
No FTs, what do you think?I’m not happy.
Vorm (lind)
Taiwo Senderos Santon (clark BAE)
Silva Dempsey Sess Bale (Beausejour)
Rooney RVP Sturridge
February 24 at 9:20 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
But I am Happy.
February 24 at 9:21 am
The Light Knight Upon His Dark Horse, Maccabi Tel-Aviv says:
your team is bad and you should feel bad
February 24 at 9:24 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
It looks OK Default, just don’t expect too much from the defence, unless Taiwo gets an assist and Vorm might do well.
February 24 at 9:27 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
+ CS from New Castle
February 24 at 9:32 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
This is true Happyankit. So all-in-all it could be pretty good.
February 24 at 9:40 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
I am doubling up on New Castle’s defence.
February 24 at 9:41 am
default says:
I swapped Dzeko and Valencia for Beause and Rooney early in the week stupidly. Kinda wish I’d stuck.
February 24 at 9:45 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Don’t do early transfers.
February 24 at 9:23 am
Jafalad says:
Chris Glover: No 1 Scout.
February 24 at 9:27 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Agreed. How do you like my grav? I took inspiration from you.
February 24 at 9:30 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Where’s Pippa? I can’t find a drooling smiley.
February 24 at 9:31 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
I care more about the front rather than the back if u know what I mean.
February 24 at 9:23 am
div says:
Need to transfer Lidegaard and have 1.3 in the bank, 0.9 of which will be used for Rooney (depending he doesn’t rise until Saturday night.
Vorm is my other keeper, so Lindegaard >
1. Schwarzer (rotates good, but already have Senderos)
2. Mignolet (not great rotation but cheap and have no defence cover)
3. Sorensen (rotation risk and have no defence cover)
4. Other
February 24 at 9:45 am
Damo says:
Prob krul as he rotates nicely with vorm and doesn’t have the threat of no game in gw29
February 24 at 9:23 am
Brada_wba says:
Any taker on a 4pt hit to get Mata in here?
sor
evans willaimson richards
moses demps silva bale
aguero bale rvp
valencia/bae/kelly
February 24 at 9:30 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
No….
February 24 at 9:24 am
RaspingDrive says:
All I can say is “Thank f*ck it’s'Friday.”Been working far too hard recently and have had very little time to spend on here (my wife is happy, at least…) Anyway, splendid article Chris, although when standard deviations start mixing with fantasy football I get the feeling it’s getting a tad over-analytical.
For anyone that saw the game, may I ask how Nani performed last night? It’s'him or Mata but I fear for the Spaniard’s little pinkie. Ta.
February 24 at 9:37 am
Tails says:
Nani was pretty average / crap to be fair. He also played the full 90mins and Young was subbed earlier around 60mins I think (not sure what this means for the weekend). Nani can always pull it out of the bag though.
February 24 at 10:02 am
RaspingDrive says:
Thanks Tails
February 24 at 9:24 am
Gizmozart says:
I wonder if Tevez is fit enough yet? I dont want that rodent spoiling my Dzeko-Augero combo up front this week haha
February 24 at 9:27 am
Thesteady-not the wobbly.. says:
What about Balotelli?
February 24 at 9:31 am
Gizmozart says:
true haha… Im hoping for a 7 – 1 drumming
February 24 at 9:44 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Like this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJQNKIePGMQ
February 24 at 9:38 am
RaspingDrive says:
That Mancini is even considering playing that odious little orc is a clear sign that he’s’ willing to sell his soul to save his skin. I see nothing much has changed since WW2.
I wish i could get rid of these rogue apostrophes! Fecking Blackberry!!
February 24 at 9:27 am
matiakez says:
Kyle Walker could be one to keep an eye on, you would think attacking returns can’t be to far away surely?
I’m hoping that BAE might tail off a bit points wise and Walker come to the fore??
February 24 at 9:29 am
The Light Knight Upon His Dark Horse, Maccabi Tel-Aviv says:
i think bae is more dangerous as opposition teams rightside are fixated on stopping bale leaving bae with more space for crosses/shos
February 24 at 9:37 am
St. Petersburg. The Zenit of European Football says:
Thanks Light Knight, saves me saying pretty much the same.
February 24 at 9:34 am
Tails says:
Do you guys think Jones is nailed on? Any ideas on the Man U backline for this weekend?
Thanks in advance.
February 24 at 9:39 am
Goaltastic says:
He’s as nailed on as anyone but Evra at the moment, especially with his midfield cameos as well.
February 24 at 9:45 am
Tails says:
Thanks goaltastic. Thats sort of what i thought. Am thinking Richards -> Jones so I can do Valencia ->Yaya.
Already have Kun and Silva.
February 24 at 9:38 am
Fuzzy Czarbles - Manager, Shakhtar Donetsk says:
so is vermaelen’s position on this map an indication of how far away from a good decision it was to bring into my squad?
can anyone talk me into playing verm this week over santon, evans or richards? not so much that he is a better bet for the gw, but because my h2h opponent has a very similar team and a 4 point advantage, and is likely playing evans, richards and krul. so right now its pretty much my sorensen vd his cahill +4 points. i hope to pick a different captain and make up the necessary ground that way, but there’s probably a 50/50 chance we will be identical there as well. i suppose there is always a chance stoke indeed keep a CS and chelsea concede and verm gets me 1 point, but with sorensen playing yesterday, i have to have at least some doubt begovic could start. lindy is my other keeper so i would obviously be screwed with my only differential. I think verm has to play, but for who?
February 24 at 9:42 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
You want me to talk you into playing verm?harrumph… (assumes deep voice) Look at my pendulum Fuzzyy left, right, left, right, left, right, your eyes must also go left, right, left, right, left, right, You are now under my control.. you are hypnotized fuzzy, now jump up on the table bend over put all 4 legs up and start wagging your tongue like a dog.
February 24 at 9:46 am
Fuzzy Czarbles - Manager, Shakhtar Donetsk says:
dont mention canines around my hat!!!
i dont think i need to be talked into playing as much as i need to be convinced who to bench. Id think evans, but my opponent technically doesn’t have him yet, so he could actually be a differential as well.
February 24 at 9:51 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Evans’ 2 points will be no more different than anyone’s else’s two points so scratch out the differential bit, Man United probably won’t keep a CS and neither will Ars but i’d play Verm for his attacking potential.
February 24 at 9:56 am
Fuzzy Czarbles - Manager, Shakhtar Donetsk says:
i actually do fancy utd for a decent cs chance, more than chelsea for example if that means anything. And evans is capable of the odd BP if utd can keep a cleanie. But verm over evans is probably best. Just still uncertain.
February 24 at 10:00 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
Norwich generally score..
February 24 at 9:49 am
Fuzzy Czarbles - Manager, Shakhtar Donetsk says:
c’mon lads!! surely a situation like this should make for good discussion. regardless of players involved, it is a matter of strategy and philosophy in these h2h situations. im sure many have been in similar positions before, and it would be great to hear everyone’s way of going about it.
February 24 at 9:40 am
Yes the Sess! says:
My current defence:
Senderos Kelly Richards Evans Caulker
Have 2 FT’s, £1.1m in bank. Should I do:
Senderos > Cahill (would be 3 week punt till GW 29)
Caulker > Santon
or just
Senderos > R.Taylor
Or something different?
February 24 at 9:41 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
2nd one
February 24 at 9:42 am
greglowe says:
I like option 2
February 24 at 9:44 am
Yes the Sess! says:
Cool, cheers lads. Could just do that and then play Evans Richards R.Taylor at the back. Just don’t like the fact that taylor’s not 100% nailed on or could be subbed early if things not going their way.
February 24 at 9:45 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
2nd one.
February 24 at 9:41 am
greglowe says:
Help needed this week
Team is:
Vorm, Migno
BAE, Evans, Cahill, Simpson, Enrique
Dempsey, McClean, Bale, Silva, Valencia
Adebayor, Ba, RVP
Thinking of the following:
1. Valencia > Pilkington & Ade > Aguero
2. Valencia > Siggy & Ade > Aguero
3. Valencia > Pilkington & Ade > Rooney
4. Valencia > Siggy & Ade > Rooney
5. Any other?
Thoughts?
February 24 at 9:43 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Valencia is fine and will be back in GW 27.
February 24 at 9:45 am
Fratboy- Marseille says:
hopefully
February 24 at 9:49 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
+ juan
February 24 at 9:51 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Juan Mata?
I hope he doesn’t play.
February 24 at 9:58 am
Udit - Newton and Small Heath... The Two greatest Champ19ns. says:
+ 1 = juan
February 24 at 9:46 am
greglowe says:
Forgot to say I have 2 free transfers
February 24 at 9:47 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
Transfer out Enrique.
February 24 at 9:54 am
greglowe says:
and do what?
Ade has got some bad fixtures coming and City have 2 easy home games
February 24 at 9:57 am
HappyAnkit- Join My New UCL Leagues-Classic & H2H-226721-44668 & 226721-44669 says:
If you have funds then Ade>Kun or else Bent [he has nice fixtures].
February 24 at 10:11 am
greglowe says:
I could do Valencia to Yaya and Ade to Bent for the next few weeks until Valencia is back