Spot the Differential

Spot the Differential – Gameweek 27

Friday evening comes to a close with our regular rundown of a trio of overlooked contenders. A couple of our protagonists have flattered to deceive this season, while the other has impressed in his debut campaign in the Premier League. The one thing all three have in common, though, is they look key to their respective side’s chances of success over the remaining three months of the season.

Nani

After racking up 198 and 157 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points in the last couple of seasons, Nani had finally established himself as a bone fide Fantasy asset after three frustrating campaigns at Old Trafford. Goals, assists and bonus points arrived in abundance as the United winger proved a regular source of points and, as the current campaign got underway, more of the same was expected.

Fair to say, then, that this time round has been dismal – one goal and two assists over nine appearances, with a single start since Gameweek 6, has seen Nani’s price plummet to 8.2. Indeed, with both Antonio Valencia and Shinji Kagawa failing to impress, the United midfield has been a huge source of Fantasy frustration this time round. Climbing off the bench in last Monday’s FA Cup win over Reading, though, Nani served a reminder of his capabilities with a goal and assist in the 2-1 win and, with his contract set to expire next year, Sir Alex Ferguson has gone out his way to lavish praise upon the Portuguese star, saying:

“Definitely we want to keep him. He’s one of the best match-winners in the game and I’m including the whole of Europe. He wants guaranteed first-team football but he can guarantee that, his performance the other night can guarantee that. We’re trying our best because he’s such a match-winning player and capable of scoring the most incredible goals.”

With his side still battling for silverware on three fronts, Ferguson could be set to call upon Nani with a little more regularity as he looks to utilise his squad to maximum effect. Having established a 12 point gap over City, United certainly have a little leeway to rest and rotate, giving the winger a platform to perform once again. Coming in at 8.7 in the Sky Sports game, he’s a little more expensive than in FPL but with an ownership of just over 1% in both games, Nani could be a real differential for tomorrow’s match with QPR and beyond for those Fantasy managers willing to take a punt on a player with proven Premier League pedigree.

Arouna Kone

Despite a four-Gameweek absence with Ivory Coast for the African Cup of Nations last month, Kone remains Wigan’s top scoring FPL player on 87 points– a clear indication of how crucial he is to their chances of survival. Having been eased back into the side with a second-half sub role last time out, Kone led the line against Huddersfield in last weekend’s FA Cup Fifth Round clash and bagged a brace in a comfortable 4-1 win.

Up next for Roberto Martinez’s side is a proverbial six-pointer at fellow-strugglers Reading tomorrow afternoon. Bearing in mind their hosts have conceded in each of their last six, the Latics will be optimistic heading to the Madejski – more so when you consider Kone’s exploits on the road. Prior to leaving for the ACoN, he had produced attacking returns in each of his last three away appearances, with a goal and assist at Villa following on from an assist away to Norwich and a strike at Everton; that’s 23 points across that trio of fixtures.

Coming in at 6.5 in FPL and 7.7 in the Sky Sports game, Kone has flown firmly under the radar with a FPL ownership of just 0.5%. If Martinez is to engineer another great escape this season, though, there’s a high chance he’ll be leaning heavily on the former Levante forward to fire the Latics to safety.

Papiss Cisse

Similar to Nani, his performances have been hugely underwhelming this term – more so, perhaps, given he’s started 23 of Newcastle’s matches thus far. Cisse has notched just five times in 1919 minutes compared to 13 strikes in 1106 minutes in the latter half of the previous season but with Demba Ba now out the picture, there’s still hope he will rediscover his 2011/12 form.

Cisse has notched twice in the last six matches for the Magpies and, handed the lone forward role once again, welcomes Southampton to St James’ Park this Sunday in a crucial battle near the foot of the table. With his side just four points clear of the drop zone, Alan Pardew will be looking to replicate the result of his side’s previous home match, which harvested a 3-2 win over Chelsea. Clearly, then, Cisse has plenty to play for and also has game time guaranteed – in addition, Newcastle’s Gameweek 29 fixture, at home to Stoke, is not in question; a factor that may affect some Fantasy managers’ transfer policy, with a handful of clubs facing the possibility of a blank that weekend.

Coming in at 8.8 in FPL and 9.3 in the Sky Sports game, he doesn’t come cheap but if he can hit even half the heights of the previous campaign over the remaining 12 Gameweeks, Cisse could still be one to watch.

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2,832 Comments Post a Comment
  1. boomtown
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 2 months ago

    Lol just say you big girls?

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    1. Breadbin
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      No.

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    2. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      .."you big girls"

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  2. Gobigorgohome
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 2 months ago

    RVP(C) pen down 🙂

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    1. Breadbin
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      Mentals page?

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  3. FORCA INTER
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 2 months ago

    all set up for nice weekend?

    Bunn

    Evans , Zabaleta , Pearce , Clyne

    Mata , Bale , Walcott(C) , Nani

    RVP(Vc) , Pog

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    1. Lateriser 12
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      You know i like it. I'm so glad finally took up my advice 😉

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      1. FORCA INTER
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        i started thinking about Nani that day when you posted that article 🙂

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        1. Lateriser 12
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 2 months ago

          Really hope it comes through. Remember it is a 4-5 week punt.

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    2. Breadbin
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      40 ish, decent.

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    3. Gobigorgohome
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      Nice team. But I hope Pog does not do well as my cup rival also has him 😀
      I don't mind Mata, Bale, Walcott, RVP, Nani all doing well. 😀

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      1. Breadbin
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        Really? I want all players not owned by me to score 0 or minus points.

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    4. Captain Robert Hatch
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      4-4-2 for life.

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  4. boomtown
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 2 months ago

    Breadbin is a bell

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    1. Breadbin
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      Don't troll me as I'm sensitive.

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  5. Siva Mohan
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 2 months ago

    Hola, amigos!

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    1. Lateriser 12
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      Ola Jesse

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  6. Lateriser 12
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 2 months ago

    So, looking for a bit of advice here. Already taken a hit here and i am tempted to take another. For Demel out. Looking to get Harte in. Now, firstly Demel will not start or at max i think he will get 2 points. Harte has a chance of an assist or a CS. In addition, i will have 11 playing for GW29 if i do this move, plus Harte has a good fixture GW29 as well.

    So, Demel>Harte (-4)

    a) Yeah, ok, fine, do it.
    b) Shut up.

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    1. tw
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      it's long term so i recon so. lets you get rid of demel now and not have to waste a transfer

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    2. Billy Gilmore
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      b)

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    3. Captain Robert Hatch
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      naw, not worth it, who knows what GW 29 brings

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    4. cr4zym4n
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      I would take hit only if you've mapped your transfer plans for the next two weeks in advance and there's already another hit embedded in there somewhere. Gives you max benefit for your hit.

      Otherwise B. Not trying to be rude tho =)

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      1. Breadbin
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        Agree with this.

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        1. Lateriser 12
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 2 months ago

          I think there might be a hit embedded elsewhere..

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        2. Breadbin
          • 13 Years
          11 years, 2 months ago

          Doesn't matter in the grand scheme. Take hits when they have the potential cost you the least.

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          1. Lateriser 12
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            11 years, 2 months ago

            So do it?

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          2. Breadbin
            • 13 Years
            11 years, 2 months ago

            I would as it's a long term move with the best potential to make the points up immediately.

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    5. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      c)lol

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      1. Lateriser 12
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        So b?

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        1. cr4zym4n
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 2 months ago

          Yes if you already have a hit planned in for GW28 and 29. Take the hit now and get max benefit.

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    6. Acquafresca
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      A

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      1. Acquafresca
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        Feck no, already took a hit. Wait until next week then.

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      2. Breadbin
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        In certain circumstances such as a non playing player, I view hits in isolation. This one seems logical.

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    7. Gobigorgohome
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      Sorry I'd say b)

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    8. Gobigorgohome
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      I mean It's not worth to take a hit for defender.

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    9. Lateriser 12
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      Reasoning made sense to me, i did A. Plus, seeing Demel in my team made me cringe.

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      1. dribbler
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        A in case that makes you feel better

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  7. Siva Mohan
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 2 months ago

    Mignolet
    Turner Onuoha Harte Demel
    Mata Bale Walcott(vc) Puncheon
    RVP(c) Lambert

    good to go?

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    1. cr4zym4n
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      Looks good save for Demel, but it's just a question of him starting, so pretty good compared to other teams.

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    2. Lateriser 12
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      Looking good except Demel. Someone else mentioned Onouha isn't nailed on.

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      1. Siva Mohan
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        no one stated a valid reason for that.. waiting for one..

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      2. Siva Mohan
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        Demel worries me a bit.. 1 (2 - 1) if he starts.. 0 if he doesn't..

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        1. dribbler
          • 14 Years
          11 years, 2 months ago

          pretty sure Onouha just missed a match through illness...no reason to think he's dropped so far as I know

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    3. Gobigorgohome
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      you and me have exactly same 8 players and same captain choice. 😀 So I'd say good to go and wish you all the best 😀

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      1. Siva Mohan
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks and wish you the same 🙂

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  8. cr4zym4n
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 2 months ago

    Anyone else here doing MLS fantasy? I saw Snake Juice's post a couple pages back, with Unreal and TW responding w/ some knowledge. I'm giving it a go as I'm stateside.

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    1. tw
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      forwards should be 3 of henry, eddie johnson, keane, and that san jose guy who's name i'm spacing on (probably leave johnson out of that lot)

      i'm a sounders fan so am a bit biased 😀 but i'd recomment gspurning in goal, we were quite solid defensively last year. and get one of zakuani or rosales in midfield. rosales is on corners and long/wide fk's and is our captain but has been injured several times over the last two seasons. gets a lot of assists and scores the odd goal. zakuani is a great player, tons of pace, scores and assists a decent amount but was out for a while injured. which could be good as it'll give him a lower starting price i recon

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      1. cr4zym4n
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        Good thoughts.

        I've currently got a forward line of Keane, Higuane and Alan Gordan as my budget fwd w/ upside. Love Rosales in mid, along w/ Kennedy for my Seattle coverage in back.

        Will get in Henry at some point. Gotta get the blanks sorted.

        PS: SJ guy is Wondlowski

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    2. New Ghost
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      I just finalized my team. It's tiring to do research!

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  9. KakiBangku
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 2 months ago

    Continuing from Berbillys excellent discussion on RVP and Walcotts SD,

    I have done another standard deviation calculation, but not using a fixed a guaranteed points and mean but rather their respective average in the last 10 gameweeks.

    RVP
    Mean: 8.1 pts
    SD: 4.306

    Walcott
    Mean: 8.8 pts
    SD: 6.443

    Conclusion, RVP will more like to score 8 pts this week than Walcott is to score 9 pts.
    But, as Berbilly mentioned Walcott failing to score 9 is not necessarily bad because it can go either 4 pts or 10 pts. Walcott is more volatile, but from a higher average than RVP.

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    1. KakiBangku
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      *walcott can score either 4pts or 13 pts

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      1. Acquafresca
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        How can Walcott score 4pts?

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        1. Gobigorgohome
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 2 months ago

          one assist + yellow no bps may be ? 🙄

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          1. Manamongst
            • 13 Years
            11 years, 2 months ago

            He´s German...don´t question the math...

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        2. KakiBangku
          • 11 Years
          11 years, 2 months ago

          Doesnt matter, CS and a bap
          Its not the point.

          Basically im saying when it comes to it, you chose between:

          75% chance of RVP scoring anything between | 7 pts -- (mean 8.1) -- 9 pts |

          Or

          75% chance of Walcott scoring anything between | 4 pts -- (mean 8.8) -- 13 pts |

          Take your pick as you cant go wrong with either really.

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          1. cr4zym4n
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            11 years, 2 months ago

            This. Standard Deviation gives you your potential spread. Since most of the Q's this week are Wally vs RvP for one week, the SD says RvP is safer but Wally prob a touch more upside.

            The overall is convincing, but it's like buy and hold in the stock market... you have to pick a strategy and stick w/ it... e.g. (c) RvP all season, or Wally all season. This will smooth out your returns and you'll get the highs and lows.

            What we do here in trying to pick the top scorer every week against fixtures is more akin to timing the market... a much tougher proposition IMO. Plus we tend to remember our poor choices over our good ones.

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            1. Manamongst
              • 13 Years
              11 years, 2 months ago

              Put Option on Walcott please!!!

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              1. dribbler
                • 14 Years
                11 years, 2 months ago

                SD = load of nonsense in this context...just a bunch of people who don't know what they're talking about misusing statistics

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  10. Acquafresca
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 2 months ago

    Ok who are you guys benching?

    I'll go first. Lambert, Podolski, Bale.

    Now you.

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    1. KakiBangku
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      Evra and Bale. 🙂

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    2. Breadbin
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      I'm not as cool as you so have benched my non playing players.

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    3. Gobigorgohome
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      Lambert, Walcott, Mata

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    4. Gobigorgohome
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      BTW you captaining RVP or Wally?

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    5. dinamika
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      Bale Suarez JEvans

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    6. Breadbin
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      Top 50k viewable post test.

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  11. Lateriser 12
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 2 months ago

    NEW POST.
    Move on.

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  12. NLB
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 2 months ago

    Mignolet
    Clyne Demel Bertrand Harte
    Mata Bale Walcott Guthrie
    RVP Lambert
    Subs: Bunn Studge Michu Davies
    +4.0

    May only field 9…worth a hit to get in Baines for Bertrand/Demel?

    thx guys

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    1. NLB
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 2 months ago

      didn't see the new post by bad!

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      1. dribbler
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 2 months ago

        yes

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