The Pre-Match Preamble – Gameweek 29
Filed under: Scout Notes, The Preamble - Posted by: Mark
Our morning stroll takes a different route this week, whilst we’d normally flick through the papers, take in the team news and digest the predicted lineups, our energies are perhaps best spent by given a final consideration to the Gameweek 29 scenario.
Besides, the key team news is simple to sum up – Daniel Sturridge is in every predicted lineup bar the Sun, while all the morning papers are predicting a start for Papiss Cisse. Simple. Okay, get your coat.
Firstly, let’s heap some praise on the beautiful game we play. As someone who has spent many years analysing game design, being around game design and designers, I can vouch that the four-point transfer hit is a simple and balanced bit of work – we have to credit the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game for that much.
However, two elements slightly skew this delicate balance. The first of these is the EA Player Performance Index (EA PPI) bonus system which tends to favour goalscorers, players on winning teams and defenders who contribute attacking actions (crosses, shots, goals and assists). With this in mind, when we take points hit for players, there is perhaps more chance that we’ll get those points back with profit should they score, particularly if they happen to win the match. I would say that there’s more opportunity to replenish multiple points hits if you can successfully identify a goalscorer with one of your transfers (particularly if it’s a defender), because perhaps at least two bonus points will be added to the tally.
The second factor that can sway us towards points hits are blanks. If we fail to get eleven players out on the pitch, we are missing out on points (a minimum of two per player on average) and therefore, spending four points to cover this shortfall suddenly seems more favourable.
This second factor certainly applies in our current predicament, meaning that a lot of us have leant towards taking points hits to cover the four missing fixtures in the Gameweek. However, before the points are committed, there are other elements to consider, factors that are unique to our specific squads and future strategies.
Looking at my own lineup, my take on the scenario is pretty simple – this is a Gameweek in which points hits can pay off for me, provided they are spent shedding players who won’t be wanted back in the short-term, and on replacements that have appeal for the Gameweeks ahead. Spending points on short-term options – getting rid of Juan Mata and Theo Walcott, only to want them back a few weeks later when their double Gameweek’s arrive – are moves that need to be considered with far more caution.
Luckily, I’m given some obvious routes to take. I have two Everton players – Leighton Baines and Marouane Fellaini; they have two tough fixtures after the blank (MCI STO tot) and, if they beat Wigan in the cup, they’ll lose their scheduled double fixture in Gameweek 33 to a later date. In the short-term, then, they have limited appeal and allow me the option to get rid and spend points in this area. Provided I can identify worthy long-term replacements.
Equally, I have Pavel Pogrebnyak suspended, while West Ham’s Guy Demel is still not convincing me in terms of security of starts. For me, Demel is a player I’d like to replace for the remaining Gameweeks.
This is the perfect opportunity to make such a move because it will only cost me two points to do so. We can presume, with some confidence, that, players brought in will each gain a minimum of two points, unless they are booked or concede two goals. Therefore, in my scenario, where I am four players short of a full starting eleven, I will need to spend 12 points (one free transfer and three hits) to field a full side. However, if it’s taken that each player should earn a minimum of two points for starting and completing 90 minutes, then this 12 point hit drops by six points (my three hits will deliver two points each that I would otherwise miss out on with four players missing). This means that there are six points to make up in order to break even on my transfers made.
My current thinking will see Glen Johnson in for Baines, Chris Samba in for Guy Demel, Moussa Sissoko in for Fellaini and Lukaku in for Pogrebnyak. That’s twelve points spent, meaning that I need Johnson, Samba, Sissoko and Lukaku to avoid bookings, complete 60 minutes and not concede two goals – that will then repay six of my twelve point hit.
I would still need six additional points to break even but, looking at those players prospects, I’m pretty confident I can get that. Given the fact that goalscorers often earn bonus, one goal from Sissoko or Lukaku would see me exceed my six point target, that’s without the prospect of Johnson and Samba returning a clean sheet or chipping in with attacking points, something they are well capable of. This is before I’ve considered the fact that I’m expanding my options for the captaincy.
Of course, I have to consider that, if I made just one free transfer, likely to be Baines to Johnson or Fellaini to Sissoko, I may end up more profitable. However, the other crucial factor is that, by spending points now, I will have given my squad a facelift; I would have both Samba and Johnson for my defence for the next few weeks for a period where both have decent fixtures. In addition, I’d have Lukaku and Sissoko available to rotate for the remainder of the season – they rotate rather well. Even if I fail to make up the full six points this week, then, I have to consider whether this spring clean is worthy of the points spent.
My scenario encourages hits because I’m keeping Walcott, Mata and Robin Van Persie on my bench – I won’t need to spend points in the future to get them back for their double Gameweeks. Yes, I won’t have Baines or Fellaini, but then their extra fixture is Arsenal away – perhaps not a big payday.
In addition, I’m signing players that offer potential over the remainder of the season. QPR and Newcastle have two of the strongest run-ins available, as do Liverpool. While Lukaku’s form, when he plays, makes him a very decent third striker to sit alongside Van Persie and Daniel Sturridge. Arguably, setting my team up in this scenario is worth six points. For others, this won’t be the case – their points hits might leave them with a squad they consider weaker than their original lineup and that’s where caution and a “no hits” policy comes in.
One other factor to consider, and one that has been touched on this week, is that taking points hits is “playing the game” – it’s adding risk and therefore “fun” to the proceedings. While this is perhaps a flippant viewpoint that will draw scorn from many hardcore players, once in a while, even I find it hard to resist its pull.
I’ve curbed my “points hit habit” in recent seasons but, as I’ve said before, I consider mistakes made through inaction worse than those made through bold transfer moves. Personally, I’d rather be sitting here at 5pm feeling frustrated that Lukaku has blanked, than be kicking myself because I’ve sat on my hands and missed out on points should he score. For me, it’s a different level of frustration, a different kind of Fantasy football angst.
Right now, I’m not sure what brand of disappointment lies ahead. I do know that I’m taking a risk and that will likely guarantee a rollercoaster ride over the six matches to come and, in a Gameweek stripped of so many big names, perhaps I need that kind thrill.
About The Author
“Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.”
Mark
2,942 Responses to “The Pre-Match Preamble – Gameweek 29”
Commenting is now closed for this post.
Recent Comments
-
183/220 :( » -
He was the one scoring most goals inside the box. » -
Yep, that is possible except for the penalty scored stat, if that is what you want, which is not recorded by the FPL… » -
This was pretty fun! 186 here, then the time limit caught up with me. » -
Too difficult to spell correctly Szcesny etc with that timing! Dammit » -
Link ? ;-) » -
Thanks mate! Will be fun to see. »
-
Cazorla 5.29 » -
Arsenal fans vs Spurs fans 2013 This is just FECKING hilarious!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leR-FoPRIKc » -
I had JEnrique for a only one week all season. And guess which week? »
“I love to attack and I love to go up front...It is a little more difficult than when you are playing centre-back. If you play the way that I want to play, I think my influence is better as a left-back. For the team, it is best that I play as a centre-back. I like to bring the ball out. You need to move the game quickly, and that is one of my qualities as well.”
Jan Vertonghen outlines what he feels is his best position for Andre Villas-Boas
-
Mark @FFScout_Mark
-
Paul @ffscout_paul
-
greek fan @FFScout_Greekf
-
Andy @ffscout_andy
-
G-G-Granville @FFScout_Granny
-
Akers @FFScout_Akers
-
Big Dunc @FFScout_Dunc
March 9 at 2:39 pm
sn0112 says:
I captained NZog…please console me
March 9 at 2:40 pm
Sleep Talk says:
No way, that was stupid.
March 9 at 2:40 pm
Triggalicious says:
*throws an X-Box, PS3 and Sega Megadrive at you*
March 9 at 2:42 pm
Crouch Potato says:
Nice
March 9 at 2:42 pm
Giggs Boson says:
+1 for Megadrive
March 9 at 2:40 pm
Az says:
Christ… were you drunk? :S
March 9 at 2:41 pm
sn0112 says:
needed differentials…but that was too extreme
March 9 at 2:43 pm
toxik says:
Bought him on a WC this week, was tempted to do the same but went with Remy, v nervous right now!
March 9 at 2:44 pm
sn0112 says:
i also have remy…but VC is sissoko…hoping Charles doesn’t come on for 1min
March 9 at 2:40 pm
Sporting says:
Dearest Daniel,
I may not, in your words, “contribute anything to this site” and I will certain take your advice and “get a life” but one thing I always do is appreciate the effort other people put into this site.
For example, Demi and his team sheets.
Your role here, it would appear, is to make yourself look as stupid as possible. Keep up the good work and thanks for giving us all plenty of material to work with.
March 9 at 2:41 pm
floydy_floyd says:
He’s a c0ck sucker for sure.
March 9 at 2:43 pm
Wild Rover says:
And serial stalker/brown noser…
March 9 at 2:43 pm
Sporting says:
p.s. the button you are looking for over there. it’s the green one with ” ! ” on it.
March 9 at 2:40 pm
Triggalicious says:
I’m quite looking forward to the FA Cup final tomorrow.
March 9 at 2:51 pm
SILVER SURFER says:
March 9 at 2:41 pm
shirtless says:
Dzeko>Hunt good call, but no Clyne so still playing with 9
March 9 at 2:42 pm
meltedman says:
Getting in Hunt is a good call? Sorry, not really seeing this one.
March 9 at 2:49 pm
shirtless says:
Got me 10 out, and got rid of Dzeko before he plunged in price!
March 9 at 2:41 pm
sarnaB-erba says:
1. What happens in UCL two players’ points are tied and each of them won their home game against each other.. ???
2. What happens when four teams are tied on the same point ???
repost
March 9 at 2:48 pm
MJ6987 (Atalanta) says:
Could I refer you to this excellent article by TW?
http://uefacouncil.wordpress.c.....mutations/
March 9 at 2:41 pm
█▓▒░ Hanamichi ░▒▓█ says:
So with Wigan beating Everton. Everton will also have DGW 33?
March 9 at 2:42 pm
Black Knights says:
Yes. Need to hope Fellaini doesnt get his final booking around then.
March 9 at 2:43 pm
Louise Garcia says:
I think he will get booked vs Stoke and hence only play against arsenal in the DGW
But who knows
March 9 at 2:42 pm
Louise Garcia says:
yep
March 9 at 2:43 pm
█▓▒░ Hanamichi ░▒▓█ says:
it’s not good news
March 9 at 2:43 pm
I Like Small Butts & I Can Lie says:
Yep.. Fellaini may actually end up missing one of those though!
March 9 at 2:44 pm
Demi says:
Or both if he gets booked in GW 32
March 9 at 2:43 pm
Jimmers says:
Correct – hope they find some form
March 9 at 2:44 pm
Stephen says:
Will have to work my way from zero Everton players to zero for that GW and the rest of the season.
March 9 at 2:42 pm
toxik says:
Remy (c) anyone?
March 9 at 2:43 pm
Nopli-The Playmaker says:
o/
March 9 at 2:44 pm
Louise Garcia says:
Was tempted, but no
March 9 at 2:46 pm
The Viper says:
Don’t have him captain but did bring him in so I wish you all the best
March 9 at 2:42 pm
Does what he wants says:
Puncheon on the bench?? Are you kidding me?
I hope Southampton get relegated and keep falling for this lol
March 9 at 2:44 pm
Giggs Boson says:
Puncheon will come on and grab a goal against tired legs.
March 9 at 2:45 pm
Crouch Potato says:
Manager is asking for trouble, Clyne also, wrong part of season to be changing things.
March 9 at 2:47 pm
teddy says:
Advantage Teddy…
March 9 at 2:42 pm
I Like Small Butts & I Can Lie says:
For the few who were wondering, the City game is on ESPN, starting from 4.30pm
March 9 at 2:42 pm
Nopli-The Playmaker says:
All my 4 players starting today
March 9 at 2:45 pm
Jimmers says:
Can’t see Moyes still at Everton next season. They have certainly not improved on last season and he has probably taken them as far as he can.
March 9 at 2:47 pm
Kostja says:
I hope he stays there until fergie leaves. He is the only one good enough to replace him IMO.
March 9 at 2:45 pm
toxik says:
I fear a low scoring week with many unpicked players grabbing the few points available
March 9 at 2:46 pm
Louise Garcia says:
This is nothing to fear
March 9 at 2:46 pm
I Like Small Butts & I Can Lie says:
Which game will you be watching tomorrow?
A: Liverpool – Spurs
B: United – Chelsea
C: Flicking between the 2
March 9 at 2:47 pm
The Viper says:
Limerick vs. Cork City!
My little bro supports ‘Pool so it’l probably be that game..
March 9 at 2:46 pm
Sporting says:
NEWPOST!
http://www.fantasyfootballscou.....nt-5361350
and Daniel, try not to be a dick in this one.
March 9 at 2:48 pm
teddy says:
March 9 at 2:46 pm
yanky says:
nzogbia you bum!!!!!!
March 9 at 2:48 pm
Tatty Bojangles says:
I used harsher words and broke things in my home when I saw the lineups.
March 9 at 2:56 pm
greggles says:
don’t worry boys. he’s going to come on and score a scintillating free-kick to rescue a point
March 9 at 2:47 pm
bradbury1 says:
anyone watching bayern losing?
March 9 at 2:48 pm
teddy says:
Bodes well. 0-3 Arsenal here we come!
March 9 at 2:47 pm
4-4-who? says:
Benteke to rip it up – you should have given him the armband over Suarez and Bale – Liverpool and Spurs will cancel each other out 0-0 of 0-1.
March 9 at 2:47 pm
meltedman says:
Hope Fox has a ‘mare for Southampton today. Clyne better have not lost his place, i only just got him back in..
March 9 at 2:49 pm
MJ6987 (Atalanta) says:
He’s got a knock apparently.
March 9 at 2:49 pm
MJ6987 (Atalanta) says:
He always seems to be getting fecking knocks at the wrong time for my team!
March 9 at 2:48 pm
Bowstring the Trout says:
Remy (c), Wilson, Harte, Bunn and Sturridge
Team Differential
March 9 at 2:52 pm
toxik says:
Have Remy (c), Harte and Sturridge so with you also N Zogbia, Cabaye, Samba, Courtinho!!!
March 9 at 2:48 pm
Daniel - U don't know what u r doing!!! Rafa out!!! says:
My lucky rival gets Pearce in this week. Can’t believe how lucky he was this year
March 9 at 2:49 pm
sarnaB-erba says:
Bayern concedes..
March 9 at 2:49 pm
Sporting says:
i said:
NEW POST:
http://www.fantasyfootballscou.....nt-5361350
March 9 at 2:53 pm
toxik says:
Arrrssseee Just heard on radio N’Zog is benched
March 11 at 10:09 am
oxido_76 says:
test
March 11 at 10:11 am
Oxido_76 / FFS UEFA doubles competition with Lovzat / Country : FRANCE / Team name : Zidane's Headbutt FC says:
re-test