Great Expectations

Great Expectations – Matthew Lowton

Snapped up from Sheffield United last summer, Matthew Lowton fitted the bill as part of Paul Lambert’s restructuring program at Aston Villa. Young, ambitious but with plenty yet to prove at the top level, the right-back arrived from Bramall Lane for a fee of around £3m and was immediately installed as a key component in Lambert’s first XI.

As the season unfolded, the defensive problems that plagued Lambert at Norwich continued to blight Villa’s backline. An attack-minded philosophy looked naïve at times as the midlands outfit found themselves on the wrong end of some serious goings-over – shipping five to City, four at home to Spurs and eight against Chelsea, Villa leaked 69 goals over the course of the campaign and managed five clean sheets all season, conceding in every match from Gameweek 17 onwards.

Key Factors

  • Few defenders, if any, afford the same consistency of starts as the Villa right-back. Lowton missed just one match all season – the Gameweek 37 loss at Chelsea – after being subbed off early in the previous league fixture and was fourth overall defender in terms of minutes played. Lambert’s faith in the former Blades man is unquestioned – if he’s fit, he should start every match for Villa.

  • After altering formation on a number of occasions last term, Lambert finally seems to have struck upon a 4-3-3 as his preferred option. As the Villa boss tinkered with his tactics in order to get the best out of his charges, he trialled three, four and five-man backlines with varying degrees of success – as he steels himself for a second season in charge, a greater degree of consistency looks key to Villa’s improvement under the Scot.

  • Villa’s form across the final few months of 2012/13 affords reason for optimism. The midlands side registered five wins and a couple of draws in their last 10 games, tasting defeat only to United, Chelsea and Liverpool and scoring 21 goals over that period – given that they had won five of their opening 28 matches, scoring 26 times, their improvement is marked.

  • Lowton also stepped as the season went on – he managed a single goal in the first 24 Gameweeks but followed that up with a goal and four assists in his final 13 appearances, with his penchant for a spectacular strike from distance always a threat. A 4-3-3 formation looks tailor-made for his talents – with a couple of defensive midfielder sitting deep, he should be afforded plenty licence to bomb forward and supply width from deep.

  • Let’s face it – Villa’s defence can barely get any worse. From a Fantasy perspective, then, a price rise for Lowton looks unlikely across the games – if he continues at last term’s initial 4.5 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), he has the potential to be a real bargain, providing Lambert can instill a little extra resilience at the back next time round.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

1,869 Comments Post a Comment
  1. HeartOfTheCity
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    More impressive goal: Neymar or Isco?

    Open Controls
    1. SW6
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      I preferred Isco's.

      Open Controls
    2. Darth
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Isco

      Open Controls
    3. HeartOfTheCity
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Agree. Isco.

      Open Controls
  2. tw
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Best player of the first half?

    Open Controls
  3. Parm
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Expanding on Savage's point on the Brazil formation, the current Brazil side is very similar to the tactic used by Scolari in 2002.

    http://www.zonalmarking.net/2010/01/28/teams-of-the-decade-12-brazil-2002/

    Fred.
    Hulk, Neymar.
    Oscar, Paulinho.
    Marcelo, Gustavo, Alves.
    Luiz, Silva.
    Cesar.

    Open Controls
  4. Darth
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Cazorla may be a great player but his hair looks stupid in this photo ......

    http://instagram.com/p/alYIBGkCEN/

    Open Controls
    1. Chu Young Ping Pong
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      😀

      Open Controls
    2. Declan
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      I'm more concerned that Mata is taller than him.

      Open Controls
      1. Darth
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        Mata must be feeling pretty smug about himself 😀

        Open Controls
        1. Declan
          • 14 Years
          11 years, 4 days ago

          😀

          Open Controls
  5. Chu Young Ping Pong
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    What a boring game.

    Open Controls
  6. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    De Vrij subbed, cs in the can

    Open Controls
    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      De Vreijzer on?

      Open Controls
    2. Declan
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      +4

      Open Controls
  7. Count of Monte Hristo
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Do you think Coutinho will be in contention for a starting place at the WC if he has a strong PL season?

    Open Controls
    1. SW6
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Yeah. He should be starting here. I don't really rate Hulk that highly.

      Open Controls
    2. Darth
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      For sure, Brazil, apart from Neymar, aren't anything special up front at the moment

      Open Controls
  8. Damo.
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Gink?

    Open Controls
    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      haha timing. Whats up?

      Open Controls
      1. Damo.
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        How do I get in contact about the transfer game? I need another run down as I'm completly lost now after being away

        Open Controls
        1. Ginkapo FPL
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 days ago

          Either hop on http://www.precisely.me/tws/index.php or send me an email @ gideon.lowes@btopenworld.com

          Open Controls
          1. Damo.
            • 14 Years
            11 years, 4 days ago

            Was on there earlier I'll email yeah there in a bit. Cheers man.

            Open Controls
        2. Joga Bonito®
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 days ago

          Have you got a team Damo?

          Open Controls
          1. Damo.
            • 14 Years
            11 years, 4 days ago

            Myself and Kuqi are Hull man. Alternating rounds for transfers. He did the first 2 though as I was away. I think Mac Gold is involved too but just as the beautiful face of the club as we haven't heard anything from him.

            Open Controls
            1. Joga Bonito®
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              11 years, 4 days ago

              Ah ok cool. Thought a late recruitment might be in order. Good luck.

              Open Controls
  9. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    People use of the term "form" in statistical models has been urking me recently, normally I wouldnt have bothered to explain why, but as HC means that this may get read by more than the ten people reading the correct page I will.

    Here goes;

    Form as derived from fpl points

    How do we gauge whether form has an influence on a player scoring points? The obvious solution, but in my opinion incorrect solution is to use their previous scores as a guide. If a player has attacking returns in both of the previous gameweeks then they must be in form! Except given the FPL's definition of assist that is just not true. Here is Yaya Toure on form and providing that moment of "brilliance" to assist Aguero.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLRlrifnwUs

    Now in this match Yaya had a ICT Threat rating of 6, with 2 penalty area touches, 1 shot of target and crucially only one chance created. That doesnt shout in form to me.

    If Lampards scores a penalty in two previous gameweeks is he in form? What about Suarez getting an assist for one of his many dives? Its not the points themselves that define form, its how the players got them.

    As everyone always says, you need to watch the match to see whether a player was playing well. Now in retrospect it is hard to go and watch every match to define form. So what I suggest is using goal attempts and chances created as a guide to a players form. This gets further complicated by individual players having a greater natural propensity for these. Defoe appears to just shoot on sight, and so needs a higher threshold of shots on target to determine his form.

    Open Controls
    1. Manani
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      well even if it is a scrappy tap in goal, it still count as form.
      it boosts the confidence of the player, which is what 'form' is all about

      Open Controls
      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        I would suggest that goals are a lot more transparent as a gauge than assists due to the fpl definition of goals to map to the reality very well.

        Open Controls
    2. Count of Monte Hristo
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      I like your thinking towards what constitutes form and the varying factors involved. You also need to consider that a player might be ticking all the boxes apart from his conversion rate which is all that really matters in FPL and a penalty taker for a strong attacking team could pose a much lesser goal threat in open play but step up and convert penalties on a regular basis.

      Open Controls
      1. Parm
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        Arteta is a perfect example.

        Open Controls
      2. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        Exactly, the existance of imminent explosion tables this year says it all. The underlying attacking stats worked really well as an indicator of under fplscoring players. And conversly implosion imminent.

        And I think that Hazards form is more important to Lampards penalty scoring chances than his own form. The more Hazard is in the box, the more often he will be tripped, the more often Lampard will score pens.

        Resptrospective analysis needs to looks at the same indicators as Tommy used rather than working of fplstats alone.

        Open Controls
    3. The3rdTurd
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      I know Camzy's post on form v fixtures was looking at FPL points, but isn't there a general consensus that you have to look at the underlying stats you highlighted (shots in box/target, chances created, conversion efficiency) when considering form? In fact isn't this what In Tommy We Trust's Explosion Imminent table all about?

      Open Controls
      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        Well exactly there is a general consensus that you have to look at the underlying stats. But there have been a fair number of posts in the previous few days that have only looked at fpl points to determine "form". Which is just ridiculous. This isnt actually directed at Camzy, someone else annoyed me first with a similiar concept.

        Open Controls
    4. Sheep
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      You need to watch games basically, stats don't tell the whole story.

      Open Controls
      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        Unfortunately that isnt really an option for reptrospectively assessing whether form is a good guide for picking fpl players, unless you want to watch a highlight reel of Bale etc for us?

        Open Controls
  10. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Insigne having a bit of a mare

    Open Controls
    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      And he gets an assist! 😀

      Open Controls
    2. Darth
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Assist?

      Open Controls
  11. Gimli son of Gloin
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Sky Bet have suspended betting on Cabaye to Monaco 😐

    Open Controls
  12. Declan
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Fack

    Open Controls
  13. Thomass
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Yessss!

    Open Controls
  14. JK - Cønt ⭐
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    van Rhijn over Regini looking like a fail

    Open Controls
  15. Count of Monte Hristo
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    2-0

    Paulinho

    Dani Alves assist

    Open Controls
    1. Mílanista
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Paulinho, and there I was scraping together the funds for Oscar.

      Open Controls
      1. Count of Monte Hristo
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        😆

        Open Controls
  16. Count of Monte Hristo
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Holland are bottling it.

    Open Controls
    1. Darth
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Standard

      Open Controls
  17. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Has someone scored? Fancy filling the rest of us in on who?

    Open Controls
    1. SW6
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Borini, Insigne assist

      Open Controls
      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        I preffered being ignorant of a Borini goal tbh

        Open Controls
        1. Mílanista
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 days ago

          Lawro captained him

          Open Controls
      2. Declan-
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        And I thought Insigne wasn't going to play 🙄

        Open Controls
    2. Declan-
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      +1

      Open Controls
    3. BOSH
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      borini

      Open Controls
    4. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Borini, Insigne assist

      Open Controls
  18. tw
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    What club does Paulinho play for?

    Open Controls
    1. SW6
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Corinthians, soon to be Spurs if you believe transfer gossip

      Open Controls
      1. tw
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        Could be a good signing. Whose place would he take?

        Open Controls
        1. SW6
          • 11 Years
          11 years, 4 days ago

          Would rotate with Sandro and Dembele maybe. Or Spurs could move to a 4-3-3 and play all 3

          Open Controls
    2. Mílanista
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Corinthians

      Possibly Spurs soon

      Open Controls
      1. Darth
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        Surely they don't need him when they have sandro and Dembele

        Open Controls
        1. Mílanista
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 days ago

          After that they have Parker and Thud.

          Open Controls
  19. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Dutch equaliser and ET would be good

    Open Controls
  20. Sheep
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Most have Neymar(C) and a Japanese defender in the ConFed game so I'm holding in my excitement 🙂

    Open Controls
  21. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Insigne subbed 😡

    Open Controls
  22. Studgie G
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Netherlands dominate, bottle it in the semi as usual. Italian against the wall defending the whole time, snatch a goal against the run of play or counter.

    typical really...

    Open Controls
  23. Konig Luther
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Fer in.... with bianchetti on bench, now i need he scores

    Open Controls
  24. Count of Monte Hristo
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    My 5 Dutch players was an epic fail.

    Got Verratti and Regini for the final though.

    How many FT's do we get?

    Open Controls
    1. SW6
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      6 again

      Open Controls
    2. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      6 I got Insigne, Florenzi and Regini.

      Need to dump Wiji Maher, that'll be it.

      Open Controls
  25. Sheep
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    I wish offsides didn't count from FKs, it would make things more interesting 🙂

    Open Controls
    1. Parm
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Sick a few men on the keeper and Bob's your Uncle...

      Open Controls
  26. Declan
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    To be Fer he should've scored.

    Open Controls
  27. Studgie G
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    you can see why Everton were looking at Fer, Cahill like from corners

    Open Controls
  28. Lawrø
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Borini(c)! 😎

    Open Controls
  29. tw
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Anyone here going to Brazil next summer?

    Open Controls
    1. Darth
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Would love to, got to work on the missuss first I think

      Open Controls
  30. pompeyfan
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 4 days ago

    Italy are terrible cheats

    Open Controls
    1. Darth
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      Got to hate the way they time waste

      Open Controls
      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        I do, but its not cheating 😉

        Open Controls
        1. Wild Rover
          • 13 Years
          11 years, 4 days ago

          How is pretending to be injured not cheating? 😕

          Open Controls
          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • 12 Years
            11 years, 4 days ago

            Not cheating, just unsportmanly

            Open Controls
            1. Joga Bonito®
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              11 years, 4 days ago

              I consider it cheating

              Open Controls
            2. The Stock
              • 13 Years
              11 years, 4 days ago

              Erm...I think that's the tarted up term for cheating.

              Open Controls
              1. Ginkapo FPL
                • 12 Years
                11 years, 4 days ago

                Is it against the rules to stop play whilst complaining of an imaginary foot injury? Dont think so.

                Open Controls
                1. The Stock
                  • 13 Years
                  11 years, 4 days ago

                  No, but seeking to achieve that end through deception most certainly is.

                  Open Controls
                  1. Count of Monte Hristo
                    • 11 Years
                    11 years, 4 days ago

                    The thing with that is we know it's wrong but there are no rules in place to actively seek out and punish those antics.

                    Open Controls
                    1. Ginkapo FPL
                      • 12 Years
                      11 years, 4 days ago

                      +9

                      Open Controls
    2. SW6
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      haha they're definitely ungracious winners

      Open Controls
    3. Studgie G
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 days ago

      they cheat but unlike your lot they don't crack under pressure

      Open Controls
      1. pompeyfan
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 4 days ago

        Hardly chokers. Won this tourni like 3 times. Just missed too many chances today

        Open Controls