We roll out the next instalment of our weekly article for Members this evening, offering an in-depth statistical analysis of the main captaincy contenders for the set of fixtures ahead. This week, more than most, getting the armband call correct looks crucial – given that all of our featured five have acquired at least 12% of the votes cast in the Gameweek 16 Captain Poll, opinion looks split right across the board. Time to delve into the data, then…
I'm ready to pull the trigger on Remy to Rooney.
I have a baaaaaad feeling about this...Open Controls
Not sure why. Since you've the cash and obviously Suarez & Rooney, why not Lukaku? Have you seen those juicy fixtures!?
Open ControlsMy main reason is that I would rather invest heavily up top than in midfield. There really isn't anyone that tickles my fancy in midfield.
Obviously if Lukaku goes beserk over the next few weeks I'll be screwed but I'm backing Rooney in.Open Controlsyeah i'm with you there. Aside from maybe Hazard & Ozil/Rambo, midfield is a wasteland. So you're aiming for a forward line of rooney/aguero/suarez? Ambitious! The latter two are essential now.
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I'm looking at getting some money to bring Silva in soon
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Short term yes, long term......yeah probably
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Do it.
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don't know. I have done that kind of move b4 and it backfired what if remy scores and lukaku has a blank -4 -7 +2= -11
He has a good fixture, his playing well, are you certain that lukaku will score more?Open Controls
silva to start v arsenal?
Open Controls100%. Pello said his reasoning behind subbing him v Bayern was for the weekend
Open Controlsnice......pello is the fpl players friend......doesnt mind telling u his plans
Open ControlsIndeed. Myself and Manuel are this *squeezes hands together* tight! In all seriousness, he did say he pulled off Silva for that reason. Also, Pello, good nickname or bad? Better than 'Grini....
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For sure. Very big game for City.
Open Controlsyes hope so just transferred him in
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Ok, is this eleven good to go this week?
Any change in the substitutions?
Marshall
Terry Jagielka Chester
Wally Ramsey Silva Hazard
Suarez Aguero(C) Lukaku
4.0/ Oviedo/Burner/GabD
Cheers in advance.Open ControlsI want that midfield so bad. Very nice team BL.
Btw just noticed that you're from India. Which part? Just curious. 🙂Open Controls😯
I'm in Bangalore as well. Originally from Bengal.Open ControlsWhitefield. You?
Open ControlsLet me guess, ITPL?
I am in BTM.Second year of Mtech from Jain Univ. Right now doing my internship and project working as a R&D intern for Avasarala Technologies.Open Controls
Forgive me if I'm being rude here...but which part of Bengal? I'm from Kolkata.
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same starting mid and attack as me.....also going agureo captain
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Ya nice mids! Wondering if I can somehow get silva in with Ozil and hazard who I already have myself
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Özil has consistently delivered points and I have no plan to sell him.
But... What if it's these choices.
A: Özil + Lallana + 0.2m ITB
B: Silva + Oscar
Would you sell Özil to get those two big hitter mids to the team?
Now .. Hazard - Ramsey - Özil - Lallana - RavelOpen ControlsStick. Your mid is awesome. If you want to bail from Lallana (and I would), look to Paulinho. Most shots inside the box of any mid in the last 4 gws plus slightly cheaper. Oh and he has 3 home games in the next 4.
Open ControlsThe consistent part I would not agree,in the last 3 Gws maybe yes. I had him from the start and sold him 3GWs ago!..It hurts but i strengthened up my team with the funds. Stick with him.
Open ControlsIf there was ever a time to lose Ozil it's probably now with City and Chelsea next.
Open ControlsYa but why throw out someone who's almost definitely gonna be one of the highest scoring players this year for two tough games? Delivered against Everton quite nicely
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Vorm - Boruc
Terry Williams Chester - Ward Clyne
Hazard Ramsey Walcott PHernandez - Ravel
Suarez Lukaku(C) Aguero
A Boruc -> Ruddy/Marshall
B Clyne -> Distin/Olson(NOR)
C PHernandez -> Fer/Pienaar/Oviedo/
D Save FT
E Another OptionOpen Controls
On the back of the recent advertisement for a new article writer, what do people think of having an FPL Fanzone type article?
For the big teams, there are plenty of highlights, opinions, and Gary Neville type analysis. For those of us that support and follow the more 'workmanlike' teams nearer the bottom, perhaps we could share our thoughts on the players to watch/look out for, for those upcoming weeks. When template teams are formed, it often boils down to who has picked the best differential from a 'lesser' team, catching the form of both the team and player at the right time.
I had in mind, maybe a two-part article each week, that listed 3 or 4 teams in each part, written by the fan of that particular team who has perhaps watched more, and therefore able to provide, better information for said team.Open ControlsHit is like a drug! Entering the rehab this week, i finally have a team to Springboard upwards..
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I weaned myself off due to all the cup comps I was in. But now they all either won (go team solomon) or I have crashed out so I feel a big empty vacuum that only a hit can fill. Made my 1 FT on Monday and the euphoria wore off a long time go. Going to be a long week but taking it one day at a time.
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I never used to do ir. I used to call people stupid for doing it but then I was told I should do it just once and now.. now *cries*
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Migs
Terry AWilliams Dawson (Gabbidon Wilson)
Morrison Nasri Ozil Hazard (Shelvey)
Rooney Suarez Long
.1 in bank, how does Ozil + Long > Ramsey + Lukaku (-4pts) sound?Open ControlsLike above says, Silva is much better. Bail on Long (6.1) and move to Chamakh (4.7) if you're looking for a budget option. Long will a) rotate playing time and b) not score against weaker opposition. It's a dead end selection
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Thoughts on Mirallas? Too much pressure from Deulofeu or is he an option with Evertons good run of fixtures?
Open Controlsflatters to deceive, more competition now- no for me better options for evertona re lukaku or their defense and goalie
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Suarez handed 4th goal from last weekend . Will fpl change it?
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Do Walcott ---> Silva for a -4 and then Nasri ----> Walcott when he actually starts??
Open ControlsNot too sure about Silva returning to starting week in week out just yet. He played with the reserves in Germanym and they face the best defence in the league this weekend.
Open ControlsYeah I'm certain Wally won't start but I'm not sure about Silva either. May as well sit tight and save myself the 4 points. Thanks for the reply
Open ControlsI mean its a mustwin for City, so i`m fairly confident Silva/Nasri/Yaya/Fernandinho will be the midfield. But Arsenal could very well start Theo for that extra counter strength away from home. I`d still try not to do the -4, especially for such a potentially explosive player like Theo. I mean with even 25 minutes pitchgime he could very well produce, and if he snowballs you`re in before the masses.
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Who is the one player you are most worried about not owning this week?
Lukaku for me.Open ControlsGood to go?
Howard
Terry Chester McAuley
Ozil Ramsey Redmond Morrison
Aguero Suarez Rooney(c)
Lewis Amalfitano Bardsley Williams
1FT, 0.5 itb.
Thanks.Open Controls
Chico out for
A.) Evans
B.) Ivanovic/Terry
C.) Olsson
D.) BTurnerOpen Controls
Evening. Have been thinking a lot about midfielders and the TSB% template of Ozil Yaya Hazard Ramsey Barkley -- 7Shadesofsmoke's hot topic was an interesting look at how the alternative template of Silva, Walcott, Oscar, Michu, and/or Coutinho might be the way forward for those looking for a differential.
But I also wanted to look back to a year ago when last season's template of midfielders was just coming together into an unfortunate nickname to see what was happening then and what happened thereafter. To me Ramsey has been this season's Michu and Yaya has been this season's Fellaini so far, so I was curious to recall exactly how things went for them after they dominated FPL so much in the first half of the season.
Having made my transfers early this gw, I've had some time to finally check out the motherlode of FPL stats shared with me in the deadzone a few months ago. Am just now emerging from the data mines after having crunched the FPL scores for all of the midfielders who finished at 140 points or higher (plus Coutinho with his impressive end of season), and some interesting form emerges here. Not sure if this is of interest at all, but I for one crave the ability to get a look at stats from past seasons. First, the stats:
GW 15 FPL Leaders 2012-13 (Midfielders)
(Player Pts through GW 15, Pts at end of season)
Michu 95, finished on 190
Bale 85, 249
Hazard 84, 190
Mata 77, 212
Santi 76, 205
Fellaini 73, 168
Nolan 70, 149
Yaya 63, 142
Gerrard 62, 185
Walcott 54, 194
Snodgrass 51, 152
Silva 49, 147
Sess 49, 141
AJ 42, 146
Lampard 29, 150
Coutinho x, 70 (GW26)
GW16-GW38 Rankings for above Top Season Scorers
Bale 164!
Walcott 140
Mata 135
Santi 129
Gerrard 123
Lampard 121
Hazard 106
AJ 104
Snodgrass 101
Silva 98
Michu 95
Fellaini 95
Sessegnon 92
Nolan 79
Yaya 79
Coutinho 70 (GW26)
Mostly, these stats are a curiosity and can not at all be used as some sort of template into which this year's players must be forced -- there are dozens of reasons why players do better or worse and each player each season is of course different. Plus, with our ability to transfer players these trends are best observed in smaller season portions since we can switch out players in or out as they're trending and before it's too late.
Here's what strikes me -- as a chaser with a shocker of an OR, I want Ramsey and Yaya of this season to continue being Michu and Fellaini of last season. Their potential regression will be the only way I can catch up, so I might as well plan on it and give myself the most chance of finding an AJ/Snodgrass type as a cheaper mid or committing to a return to form that elite players like Walcott Gerrard and Lampard had last season. Hopefully this year's Ramsey and Yaya owners will be invested in their profits enough to hold onto them too long, if that occurs -- and that is not to say that they must regress, just to say that I have to gamble that they will. I can never own Ramsey or Yaya this year if I want to hit a respectable finish.
In my opinion, those of us chasing need to have a midfield that includes at least two of those elite differentials that 7Shades listed -- I'm going Hazard Walcott Coutinho for now, with an eye to switch Coutinho to Silva as soon as form suggests -- since that gives the chaser the security of one current high achiever plus the calculated risk of two elite differentials. If I had the money I'd go Silva as well, but I just can't afford it.
This has gotten much longer than planned, so I will post the 140+ forwards and their stats as a reply to this post in an effort to save space. Defenders and goalkeepers are frankly boring: fixtures are too important and scoring is too tightly packed.Open ControlsGW 15 FPL Leaders 2012-13 (Forwards)
RVP 96, 262
Tevez 94, 169
Ba 90, 153
Suarez 85, 212 (something took a bite out of his season a bit early)
Lambert 66, 187
Rooney 61, 143
Podolski 59, 147
Berbatov 59, 163
Kone 57, 140
Lukaku 47, 159
Benteke 44(gw4), 166
Remy x, 53 (started in gw23)
Boselli 4, 8
GW16-38 Rankings of Above Top Scorers
RVP 166!
Suarez 127
Benteke 122
Lambert 121
Lukaku 112
Berbatov 104
Podolski 88
Kone 83
Rooney 82
Tevez 75
Ba 63
Remy 53 (gw23)
Boselli 4Open Controls
Very interesting read, TM!
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Last year I had an overall rank of 900k in the middle of December but finished at 41k. Part of the reason that happened was that I never owned Michu or RvP but nearly everyone else did. When they regressed to the mean, I caught up. When certain players do exceptionally well, most managers are reluctant to sell right away, due to a combination of fear of losing value, and loyalty (for lack of a better word).
Mind you, that was not a conscious strategy... more just stubbornness on my part.
So I think that your strategy could very well bear fruit. However, it is difficult/impossible to predict who will regress to the mean, and who will keep it up. One could argue that Bale looked like an over-achiever in the first half of the year, too.Open ControlsRvP may not have regressed in absolute terms, but Suarez was the better option for most of the second half of the season. Until Branislav looked to tasty to resist.
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Great read. Paulinho might be a late season differential too. 😉 BIG might there.
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Great work mate, really enjoyed reading this.
Walcott's stats are screaming for investment, so lets hope, for once, that Demi is wrong about his security of starts.
I want Walcott, Hazard and Silva long termOpen Controls
McGregor
Santon Mertesacker BenDavies
Hazard Yaya Ramsey Oviedo
Suarez Lukaku Giroud
Benched :
Mignolet Ward-Prowse Lovren Distin
Good to go? I still can not decide the Captain tho..Open Controls
I'm sure this has been discussed before but is Hazard under serious threat of being rested against Palace?He played the full 90 yesterday so must be!
Open ControlsChelsea have a League Cup game midweek where all this stars will be rested. Hazard should be safe to face Palace. Chelsea are also in danger of falling farther behind Arsenal and being leapfrogged by a bunch of teams if they falter in the league.
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Who to captain??
a) LUKAKU
b) HAZARD
???
Really can't think..
Can u suggest and why??
CheersOpen ControlsGreetings, people.
Help me decide:-
A. Play Ravel (SUN)
B. Play Sess (car)
C. Ditch Sess & Get Paulinho (-4) altough most people are getting Fer)Open ControlsA
Open ControlsWow, this is surprisingly unanimous. Yeah, maybe next week. Thanks all.
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This question proves that sess isn't worth his price tag. Better off ditching him sooner rather then later
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HEY guys ..
who to select as captain this GW
A)ROONEY
B)AGUERO
C)HAZARD
D)OZIL
E)SUAREZ
give me atleast 2 best shots to go with
waiting for some good suggestions...Open ControlsMy team is actually full of differentials when I break it down. Hopefully some good scores will claw me up the rankings
Open ControlsWadddurrrpppp?!
Things are going pretty well thanks GTS, yourself?Open Controls
doing great as well (i think) 😀
Had an argument with myself if howard or jags to get & ended up with howard as the ppg are almost same.. what kept you busy with your team?Open ControlsNo troubles this week I already knew which transfers I was making in advance so was smooth sailing.
Migs and Giroud out for Howard and Rooney.
1.3 banked to upgrade nasri either next week or week afterOpen ControlsHaven't got aguero. I've chosen Lukakuuuuuuuuuuu!!
I refuse to get aguero at his priceOpen Controls
Gerrard + Johnson -> Hazard + Distin?
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Play 2 of these
Chester (STO)
AWilliams (nor)
Burner (WBA)
Arnautovic (hul)
Ravel (SUN)Open Controls
I don't know if this is already old news, but did you hear that OPTA changed the 4-1 goal from Joey O'Brien OG to a Suarez goal?
Open ControlsResilient defense versus Man City at Etihad, we all know how that ended last time versus Spurs. Armband on Aguero.
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10 years, 4 months ago1 FT with 3.0 in the bank any ideas ?
and is my team set or should i play Coutinho in fron of Ravel/Redmond.Am a spurs suporter so its hard to have 3 liverpool players haha
Krul
Jagielka,Williams,Johnson
Hazard,Nasri,Redmond,Ravel
Aguero,Suarez,Lukaku(C)
Harper,Coutinho,Vlaar,Rosenior
Thanks