The final curtain call for Gameweek 24 and our own January window looks at West Ham’s bad boy skipper, re-assesses an exciting and resurgent Southampton and discusses the possible shift away from a ‘Big Three’ template up front.
THE PLAYER
After receiving two red cards in the space of a month, Kevin Nolan was hardly high on the shopping list for Fantasy managers seeking mid-priced attacking midfielders. Following a series of poor performances in the first half of the season (one goal and three assists in the first 17 Gameweeks), Nolan’s form has turned around and he has now delivered three goals and a trio of assists in his last five appearances.
West Ham are starting to show some fighting qualities, with a gritty away draw with Chelsea last week and a comfortable 2-0 win over Swansea. Renewing his partnership with Andy Carroll – making his first home start this season, and providing a much-needed physical target man up front – the two former Magpies looked menacing, combining for both Nolan’s goals and promising more of the same for the remainder of the season. All was going well, until Carroll’s own sending off on 58 minutes after an altercation with Chico Flores convinced Howard Webb to show red.
An appeal for Carroll’s dismissal has already been lodged and Sam Allardyce is optimistic the ban will be rescinded. To an extent, the West Ham skipper’s prospects may well hinge on the FA’s impending decision – priced at 6.5 in Fantasy Premier League, the next six Gameweeks (avl, NOR, SOT, eve, HUL, stk) indicate we may well be ‘talking about Kevin’ as a serious contender for our squads should his sidekick’s suspension be overturned in the next couple of days.
THE TEAM
Southampton’s clinical disposal of Fulham once again highlighted Mauricio Pochettino’s team as a rich source of great value Fantasy assets, with options to consider in every position.
Very much the early-season darlings of our squads, the Saints run of form to November elevated them into the Champions League spots for a while, before a difficult run of games and spate of injuries over the winter period saw them settle into a more modest mid-table position. Operating just below the top seven likely contenders for Europe, but well clear of any relegation worries, their ‘lonely island’ league position masks Southampton’s excellent goal threat and ability to give strong returns at both ends of the pitch.
It was no coincidence that Artur Boruc’s injury came during that difficult period and this saw clean sheets dry up, with Pochettino’s side mustering a single shut-out in seven with the Pole on the sidelines. Now fully fit and back to his best, the 4.7-priced stopper has returned two clean sheets in the last four games whilst, across the rest of the defence, there is also an abundance of options, with Luke Shaw (4.8) perhaps providing the greatest security of starts amongst the budget options after Calum Chambers (3.9) was withdrawn due to injury last weekend. While Dejan Lovren remains out, though, Maya Yoshida, at 4.0, could be a short-term punt if defensive budget is tight.
The midfield spot simply belongs to Adam Lallana, now owned by over 30% of Fantasy managers and, priced at only 7.8, still offering outstanding value. The third-ranked midfielder and fifth-highest scorer overall, Lallana has returned three double-figure hauls in the last four Gameweeks, and seven over the season so far. With many tipping him to be on the plane to Brazil in the summer, the captain’s form suggests he should be acquired regardless of his rising price and despite some feeling they may have missed the bandwagon.
Up front, it is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore Jay Rodriguez who scored his tenth Premier League goal against Fulham. At 6.5, he is the best value forward in the game and, despite this, there still appears to be some reticence to afford one of our three precious striker spots to a player that often does not line up as an ‘out and out’ striker. If this issue is too large a stumbling block, Rickie Lambert is also back on the radar, returning 15 points last weekend and now sitting just three points behind Rodriguez overall.
A glance at the schedule indicates that Southampton offer the perfect combination for Fantasy managers, as form and fixtures align to offer a potentially profitable mix. The next six (STK, hul, whm, LIV, cpl, NOR) will hold little fear either at St Mary’s or away from home, so expect to see more fast, attacking and exciting play as the push for England World Cup places, and possibly a Europa League spot, intensifies.
THE TALKING POINT
With the winter Wildcard window now closed, the opportunity to freshen up or completely re-organise our teams is behind most Fantasy managers. Over the past few Gameweeks, a number of factors have afforded us the possibility to move away from the popular tactic of investing in a ‘heavy hitting’ front three along with a couple of cut-price midfielders, and distributing our budgets in an alternative manner.
Robin van Persie’s return to fitness is significant. At a time when Sergio Aguero is stuck in the City treatment room with another injury setback and Luis Suarez’s eye for goal is starting to slightly dry up, Fantasy managers favouring this option will likely struggle for a third premium striker, given the Dutchman’s 13.6 price-tag.
The consistency of Southampton’s Rodriguez and the (temporarily) secure Edin Dzeko present the perfect opportunity to free up substantial budget for investment in other areas. For those eyeing up a move to 3-5-2 to take advantage of the recent goal flurry from midfield, Kenwyne Jones (4.6) notched on his Cardiff debut, whilst Marouane Chamakh (4.8) is nailed-on at Palace.
In midfield, we have witnessed a shift in productivity to an array of in-form players in the mid-price bracket. Lallana and Nolan are just a couple of examples, whilst Adam Johnson (6.9), Kevin Mirallas and Christian Eriksen (both 7.4) all make strong cases for inclusion, particularly given that they have all been outscoring their respective club’s forwards of late.
Ironically, their form comes at a time when many budget and premium midfielders are falling off the pace for various reasons. Cut-price options offered far greater value per million in the first half of the season but, with Ross Barkley failing to pick up the points and the likes of Adnan Januzaj and Peter Whittingham struggling for minutes, many are reassessing their tactics. At the other end of the market, Mesut Ozil and David Silva (both one goal their last eight) along with Oscar (a single strike in 10) are expensive examples of budget that could be generating better scores elsewhere.
As we enter the final third of the season, then, the options look to be increasing for Fantasy managers after a first few months mainly dominated by the rise to prominence of template teams. The numerous options in midfield and knock-on effect both up front and in defence, where some are considering a Chelsea double-up, could well lead to mini-league shake-ups and inject a little more variety for the run-in.
